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Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race is causing market uncertainty. Analysts now expect more market volatility after Biden pulled out of the race. AdvertisementUS President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential election is throwing fresh uncertainty into the markets for a second straight week. Investors were already trying to position themselves for the so-called "Trump trade" following the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on July 13. Markets at large were relatively calm following Biden's withdrawal after the Trump trade gripped sentiment last week.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Trump, Biden, , Donald Trump, Mark Haefele, Jim Reid, Kyle Rodda, Harris, Chris Weston, Pepperstone, Kamala Harris, Biden's, Haefele Organizations: Service, Trump, Republican, UBS Global Wealth Management's, Nasdaq, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Democrats, Democratic Party, Democratic, UBS
Read previewMost developed countries are set to gain more wealthy people in the next five years — with two big outliers. Some countries, like Taiwan, will gain as many as 50% more millionaires during that time. But the United Kingdom and the Netherlands make "notable exceptions" on this list, per UBS, because both are forecasted to lose millionaires. The UK's three million millionaires put it third among countries with the highest number of millionaires last year, as measured in US dollars, per UBS. The loss continues a trend: The UK lost 16,500 millionaires between 2017 and 2023, per immigration consultancy Henley & Partners.
Persons: , Paul Donovan, Donovan, Andrew Amoils, Amoils Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, Henley & Partners, Russia, BI, Henley, Partners Locations: Taiwan, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Paris, Dubai, Sydney, Italy, Spain, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSlowdown in consumer demand due to interest rates being 'too high': analystClaudia Panseri, CIO France at UBS Global Wealth Management, joins Street Signs to discuss current market trends including potential concerns for the luxury sector, and the upcoming earnings season.
Persons: Claudia Panseri Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDeflationary forces present in almost every sector in U.S., says UBS Global Wealth's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, and Jared Woodard, head of research committee at Bank of America Securities, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss deflation, macro outlooks, and more.
Persons: UBS Global Wealth's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan, Jared Woodard, CNBC's Organizations: UBS Global, UBS Global Wealth Management, Bank of America Securities Locations: U.S
Up to $9 trillion is expected to be passed along to spouses and partners in the coming years as part of what's being called "the horizontal wealth transfer," according to a new report. Yet because surviving spouses and partners typically get the initial inheritances, and because women typically outlive men, bequests in the coming years will largely go to women, according to the UBS Global Wealth Report. UBS calls it the "horizontal wealth transfer," since the wealth is moving intra-generationally rather than intergenerationally. "Most people have a rather feudal idea of wealth going down through generations," said Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management. According to the report, the largest horizontal wealth transfers will be in the Americas.
Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: what's, Americas
He reasoned that while higher interest rates were a concern, solid earnings growth would keep stocks afloat. Since then, the S&P 500 has rallied 11.1% off its early May lows and extended its year-to-date surge to 16.9%. Since UBS GWM is neutral on US stocks, Lefkowitz recommends that investors keep their expectations in check and look for alternatives. Though not flashy, bonds boast attractive yields and should continue to rally if the Fed cuts rates this fall, according to UBS GWM. "We think investors should position for a lower interest rate environment and buy quality bonds, which have attractive yields and the potential for capital appreciation amid the potential for a deeper easing cycle," Marcelli wrote in the note.
Persons: , it's, David Lefkowitz, who's, Lefkowitz, We'll, that's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, UBS GWM, seconding, Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Trump Organizations: Service, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS GWM's, Business, UBS GWM, Federal, Nvidia, UBS, White Locations: Washington
LONDON — The number of global millionaires is set to keep rising over the next five years — with the U.K. a stark outlier, according to the 2024 Global Wealth Report from UBS. Gains will be led by tech powerhouse Taiwan, where the number of millionaires is set to jump 47% on the back of the booming microchip industry and a rise in immigration by wealthy foreigners. The two hubs in which the most global millionaires are based, the U.S. and mainland China, are set to see their figures rise 16% and 8% respectively. Another country where the number of dollar millionaires is forecast to decline was the Netherlands, which is estimated to see a 4% drop in such wealthy individuals. The report meanwhile sees the number of U.S. dollar millionaires in Russia growing by 21%.
Persons: Paul Donovan, Donovan Organizations: UBS, Taiwan, UBS Global Wealth Management, Russia, Labour Party, Conservative Locations: Turkey, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Japan, U.S, China, France, Italy, London, Dubai, Singapore, Netherlands, Russia
UBS says it has a neutral view on Japan
  + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS says it has a neutral view on JapanHartmut Issel, head of Asia-Pacific equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses the weak yen and why it likes Indonesian banks.
Persons: Japan Hartmut Issel Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Japan, Asia, Pacific
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Adam Parker, David Lefkowitz, & Ayako YoshikaDavid Lefkowitz, senior equity strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management; Ayako Yoshika, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group; and Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate Research, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market outlooks, expectations for the Fed, and more.
Persons: Adam Parker, David Lefkowitz, Ayako Yoshika David Lefkowitz, Ayako Yoshika, CNBC's Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Trivariate Research, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailImportant to divorce politics from portfolio construction, says UBS' Tom McLoughlinTom McLoughlin, UBS Global Wealth Management, Americas head of fixed income, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss how the 2024 presidential election will impact the markets.
Persons: Tom McLoughlin Tom McLoughlin Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Americas
Diversification is key right now: UBS Global Wealth Management
  + stars: | 2024-06-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDiversification is key right now: UBS Global Wealth ManagementJin Yee Young, co-head of UBS Global Wealth Management APAC explains the shift into developed markets fixed income and the growth of private markets investment in Asia.
Persons: UBS Global Wealth Management Jin Yee Young, UBS Global Wealth Management APAC Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS GWM CIO breaks down the potential impact of the U.S. presidential electionMark Haefele of UBS Global Wealth Management says a second Trump presidency will benefit some bank and commodity stocks, but be "less good" for consumer staples and renewables stocks.
Persons: Mark Haefele, Trump Organizations: UBS, U.S, UBS Global Wealth Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS: Expect oil prices to gravitate toward mid-80s by the third quarterWayne Gordon of UBS Global Wealth Management discusses OPEC+'s extension of oil output cuts into 2025.
Persons: Wayne Gordon Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management
A soft landing is on the horizon, too — or already here depending on who you ask — and recent data reinforces that. AdvertisementThere has been a ton of moderation in this rate particularly when comparing recent changes to those seen in 2022, another sign pointing to a soft landing. AdvertisementThe soft landing might already be hereDavid Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, believes the US has already achieved a soft landing. "To me, a soft landing is when the unemployment rate has basically hit its full-employment level, and the inflation rate is gradually coming down to a rate that's acceptable," Kelly said. Advertisement"In other words, a fairly comfortable soft landing with occasional turbulence," Draho added.
Persons: , That's, it's, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, Briggs, Nick Bunker, Bunker, David Kelly, Kelly, Jason Draho, Draho, It's Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, North America, UBS, Morgan Asset Management, UBS Global Wealth Management
"With yields holding firm at elevated levels , large caps continue to outperform small caps. Hopes for multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year have dimmed after recent inflation readings showed signs of stickiness. An economy that is growing more slowly, but with cooler inflation, could be the combination small caps need. Small caps could also benefit from an uptick in the global economy that benefits areas like manufacturing that has heavy representation in the small-cap index. Investors who really want exposure to small caps could also look outside of the U.S. Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg said in a May 29 note to clients that global small caps are outperforming their U.S. counterparts and are poised for a potential breakout.
Persons: Russell, Todd Sohn, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Chad Miller, you've, Miller, Cayla, Seder, Mark Haefele, Solita, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, Rob Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, ESG, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Companies, UBS, Institute, Supply, PMI, Investors, U.S . Wolfe Research Locations: Thrivent, Silicon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Substantial' potential in Chinese equities over the next 6 to 12 months: UBS WMSuresh Tantia of UBS Global Wealth Management is positive on China's economic recovery trajectory, but says there is still a tail risk associated with the possibility of a second Trump presidency.
Persons: Suresh Tantia Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Trump
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHafele: There's currently a benign backdrop for both stocks and bondsMark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses his new S&P 500 price target and the markets this week.
Persons: There's, Mark Haefele Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management
The era of hiding out in cash is coming to an end, according to UBS. While investors have been earning yields of more than 5% on instruments like money market funds and certificates of deposit, those rates aren't expected to stick around much longer. "We believe investors should limit their overall cash balances as falling interest rates this year and beyond will diminish returns on cash," Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note Monday. Investors flooded into money market funds as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022. UBS also moved out on the curve on TIPS earlier this month after initially buying 5-year inflation-protected securities in August.
Persons: Marcelli, Leslie Falconio, Falconio Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Investors, Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, AAA, AAA CMBS Locations: UBS Americas
Fed not cutting rates would be a headwind to Asian markets: UBS
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed not cutting rates would be a headwind to Asian markets: UBSHartmut Issel, head Asia-Pacific equities and credit at UBS Global Wealth Management, says, however, that his base case is that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interests rates twice this year, starting in September.
Persons: UBS Hartmut Issel Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, U.S . Federal Locations: Asia, Pacific
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe UK is 'an interesting investment' right now: UBS Global Wealth ManagementAdrian Zuercher of UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for U.S. and U.K. markets.
Persons: UBS Global Wealth Management Adrian Zuercher Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . On the agenda:But first: Why Wall Street is so happy to see the job market slowing down. New data from Vanguard shows a two-tier job market: one divided between a blue-collar boom and a white-collar recession. Also read:AdvertisementiStock; Rebecca Zisser/BIThe portfolio-manager whisperersThe new power figures in hedge funds do not manage money.
Persons: , it's, Brian Rose, It's, Christie Hemm, Jan Sramek, Goldman Sachs, Reid Hoffman, Marc Andreessen, Alyssa Powell, Stefano Spicca, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Rebecca Zisser, whisperers, Gates Organizations: Business, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management, Big, Silicon, California, Vanguard, Microsoft, Big Tech Locations: Austrian, Solano County, Napa, Sacramento, California, Silicon Valley, New York City
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTech stocks still attractive in long term, UBS Wealth Management CIO saysMark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and markets.
Persons: Mark Haefele Organizations: Tech, UBS Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S
Less than a month ago, analysts were calling for subdued earnings growth of just 3%. Although higher rates can be a headache, Lefkowitz said earnings growth matters most. Instead of obsessing over when interest rates will fall, Lefkowitz said investors should consider the reasoning behind the Fed's decisions. "If rates are rising and that's leading to more confidence in the earnings growth outlook, then that shouldn't be a headwind to markets," Lefkowitz said. Follow this 5-part investing game planHealthy earnings growth and a resilient economy have strategists at UBS GWM bullish about US stocks.
Persons: Jonathan Golub, weren't, that's, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, , shouldn't Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, UBS GWM, Bank of America, Federal, Healthcare
These are the kinds of questions used by the University of Michigan to calculate the Consumer Sentiment Index, an economic indicator measuring how people feel about the economy. That survey and others show there is a pervasive sense of disconnect between the overall economic picture and how people feel about the economy. Despite slowing inflation, a healthy labor market with record-low unemployment, and stocks that remain in a bull market, consumer sentiment remains below pre-pandemic levels. "People don't tend to think in terms of inflation—economists do," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. Normal people think in terms of price levels."
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Paul Donovan Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S
Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve
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