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The combination of recent Supreme Court rulings on presidential power with the Democratic Party’s nomination crisis in the wake of Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance has significantly improved Donald Trump’s prospects — not only his odds of once again becoming president, but also of enacting a sweeping authoritarian agenda. Trump’s debt to the six-member conservative majority on the Supreme Court is twofold. First, their delay. By waiting until the last day of the court’s term to issue their decision on Trump’s immunity claims, the justices effectively prevented prosecution of federal criminal charges against him before the election. “By shielding Donald Trump from standing trial before a jury in two of his felony cases,” Michael Podhorzer, a former political director of the AFL-CIO, writes in a post on his Substack, Tipping the Scales, “Trump’s three appointments to the Supreme Court, along with the even more MAGA Justices Alito and Thomas and Judge Aileen Cannon, have already irreparably interfered in the 2024 election.”Second, the substance of the July 1 ruling in Trump v. United States has convinced Trump and his allies that they will face few legal obstacles if they pursue a radical reconstruction of government — a “second American Revolution,” in the words of one loyalist — if Trump regains the White House on Nov. 5.
Persons: Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump’s, , Donald Trump, ” Michael Podhorzer, , MAGA, Alito, Thomas, Aileen Cannon, , Trump Organizations: Democratic, AFL, Trump v . United, Trump Locations: Trump v, Trump v . United States
Have Democrats and Republicans traded places? Are low-turnout elections and laws designed to suppress voting now beneficial to Democrats and detrimental to Republicans? Nicholas Stephanopoulos, a law professor at Harvard, contends that the answer to these last three questions is changing from no to yes. In a paper posted last week, “Election Law for the New Electorate,” Stephanopoulos argues that “the parties’ longstanding positions on numerous electoral issues have become obsolete. These stances reflect how voters used to — not how they now — act and thus no longer serve the parties’ interests.”
Persons: Nicholas Stephanopoulos, ” Stephanopoulos, Organizations: Republican, Democratic Party, Harvard, New Locations: New Electorate
Who among us are the most willing to jettison democratic elections? Which voters not only detest their political adversaries, but long for their destruction? These questions are now at the heart of political science. Who, then, falls into this subset of partisan sectarians? The authors cite a set of nine polling questions that ask voters to assess their feelings toward members of the opposition on a scale of 1 to 6, with six the most hostile.
Persons: ” Eli Finkel, Jamie Druckman, Alexander Landry of Stanford, Jay Van Bavel, Rick H, Hoyle, Duke, Locations: Northwestern
A central predicament of President Biden’s campaign is how to persuade voters to abandon Donald Trump. “In 2012 the Obama campaign turned a nice guy, Mitt Romney, into a piece of crap,” Steve Murphy, a co-founder of the Democratic media firm MVAR Media, told me. “You can’t do that to Trump because everybody already knows he’s a piece of crap.”Not only do voters know that Trump is a liar and corrupt, narcissistic and venal; his supporters have repeatedly found ways to slide past his liabilities. In April, before the former president was convicted on 34 felony counts by a New York jury, and again this month, after he was found guilty, YouGov asked voters: “Do you think someone who has been convicted of a felony should be allowed to become president?”
Persons: Biden’s, Donald Trump, Obama, Mitt Romney, Steve Murphy, Trump, YouGov, Organizations: , Democratic, MVAR Media, Trump, New Locations: New York
— artificial intelligence — is spurring curiosity and fear. paper, Acemoglu contended that artificial intelligence has the potential to improve employment prospects rather than undermine them:It is quite possible to leverage generative A.I. as an informational tool that enables various different types of workers to get better at their jobs and perform more complex tasks. Think of a generative A.I. To turn generative A.I.
Persons: Will A.I, Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, Simon Johnson, Johnson, Acemoglu, ” Acemoglu, — Tyna Eloundou, Pamela Mishkin, Sam Manning, Daniel Rock Organizations: Machines, of, World Trade Association, A.I, OpenAI, Centre, University of Pennsylvania, Labor Locations: M.I.T, United States, Autor, China, A.I
Opinion | The Gender Gap Is Now a Gender Gulf
  + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | )   time to read: 1 min
Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the coalitions supporting Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Nov. 5, 2024, will be significantly different from those on Nov. 3, 2020. On May 22, Split Ticket, a self-described “group of political and election enthusiasts” who created a “website for their mapping, modeling and political forecasting,” published “Cross Tabs at a Crossroads: Six Months Out.”Split Ticket aggregated “subgroup data from the cross tabs of 12 reputable national 2024 general election polls” and compared them to 2020 election results compiled by Pew, Catalist and AP. Combining data from multiple surveys allowed Split Ticket to analyze large sample sizes and reduce margins of error for key demographic groups.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Organizations: Pew, Catalist
When historians and political scientists rank presidents from best to worst, Donald Trump invariably comes out at the bottom. This year, to give one example, the 2024 Presidential Greatness Project released the results of a survey of 154 current and former members of the Presidents and Executive Politics Section of the American Political Science Association. The highest ranked included no surprises: on a scale of 0 to 100, Abraham Lincoln (95.03), Franklin Delano Roosevelt (90.83), George Washington (90.32), Teddy Roosevelt (78.58) and Thomas Jefferson (77.53). Dead last: Donald Trump (10.92), substantially below James Buchanan (16.71), Andrew Johnson (21.56), Franklin Pierce (24.6) and William Henry Harrison (26.01).
Persons: Donald Trump, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, George Washington, Teddy Roosevelt, Thomas Jefferson, James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Franklin Pierce, William Henry Harrison Organizations: American Political Science Association
Replying by email to my inquiry, Hetherington wrote:In 1992, those whites scoring at the top of the authoritarianism scale split their two-party vote almost evenly between Bush and Clinton (51-49). By 2012, those high authoritarianism white voters went 68-32 for Romney over Obama. In both Trump elections it was 80-20 among those voters. So from 50 Republican-50 Democrat to 80 Republican-20 Democrat in the space of 24 years. The two authors analyzed data from seven studies conducted by the World Values Survey in 76 countries between 1981 and 2022.
Persons: Marc Hetherington, , Hetherington, Clinton, Romney, Obama, Joshua Conrad Jackson, Dan Medvedev, Jackson, Medvedev Organizations: University of North, Chapel Hill, Trump, Republican, University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business Locations: United States, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, University of North Carolina, Bush
Why is it that a substantial body of social science research finds that conservatives are happier than liberals? A partial answer: Those on the right are less likely to be angered or upset by social and economic inequities, believing that the system rewards those who work hard, that hierarchies are part of the natural order of things and that market outcomes are fundamentally fair. Those on the left stand in opposition to each of these assessments of the social order, prompting frustration and discontent with the world around them. The happiness gap has been with us for at least 50 years and most research seeking to explain it has focused on conservatives. More recently, however, psychologists and other social scientists have begun to dig deeper into the underpinnings of liberal discontent — not only unhappiness, but also depression and other measures of dissatisfaction.
It has become clear that one constituency — young voters, 18 to 29 years old — will play a key, if not pivotal, role in determining who will win the Biden-Trump rematch. Four years ago, according to exit polls, voters in this age group kept Trump from winning re-election. They cast ballots decisively supporting Biden, 60-36, helping to give him a 4.46-point victory among all voters, 51.31 to 46.85 percent. There is substantial variance in poll data reported for the youth vote, but, to take one example, the NBC News national survey from April found Trump leading 43-42. Young voters’ loyalty to the Democratic Party has been frayed by two distinct factors: opposition to the intensity of the Israeli attack on Hamas in Gaza and frustration with an economy many see as stacked against them.
Persons: Biden, Trump Organizations: Biden, Trump, NBC News, Young, Democratic Party Locations: Gaza
Our Electoral College maps below lay out the best scenarios for him and Mr. Trump. In a Wall Street Journal battleground poll taken in March, Mr. Biden had only 37 percent job approval in the state. … orand The second and harder path for Mr. Trump would be if he carried only one Southern swing state – most likely North Carolina. By carrying these states, Mr. Biden has several paths to 270, but the first three scenarios are his most viable. Scenario 4 They involve Mr. Biden winning Georgia and Arizona … They involve Mr. Biden winningand Scenario 5 … or Michigan and Georgia.
Persons: Biden, Akshita Chandra, Yuji Sakai, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden’s, Court’s, … orand, Hamas’s, Mr, , , Bill Clinton’s, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton Organizations: Presidency, Trump, New York Times, Electoral, Wisconsin –, Sun, Siena, Black, The Arizona, Michigan, Mr, North Carolina, Republicans, Georgia, Democrats, Congressional District, Michigan …, Wisconsin, Democratic, House Locations: Arizona, – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Mich, Pa, Nev, N.C, Ariz . Ga, Wis, Ariz ., Michigan, Arizona , Michigan, Arizona , Nevada, Israel, Gaza, Nebraska, Minnesota, United States, Michigan , Pennsylvania
Donald Trump has added something new to the practice of extracting money from major donors: fear. Trump has also talked of prosecuting officials at the F.B.I. In public, Trump has vowed to appoint a special prosecutor to “go after” President Biden and his family. Trump has claimed without evidence that the criminal charges he is facing — a total of 88 across four state and federal indictments — were made up to damage him politically. Trump has made “retribution” a central theme of his campaign, seeking to intertwine his own legal defense with a call for payback against perceived slights and offenses to “forgotten” Americans.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump’s, Trump, John F, Kelly, William P, Barr, Ty Cobb, Mark, , ” President Biden, Organizations: House, The Washington Post, Justice Department, Joint Chiefs,
Together, these organizations are constructing a detailed postelection agenda, lining up prospective appointees and backing Trump in his legal battles. Most of the work performed by these nonprofit groups is conducted behind closed doors. Unlike traditional political organizations, these groups do not disclose their donors and must reveal only minimal information on expenditures. In many cases, even this minimal information will not be available until after the 2024 election. Nonprofits like these are able to maintain a cloak of secrecy by positioning themselves as charitable organizations under section 501(c)(3) of the tax code or as social welfare organizations under section 501(c)(4).
Persons: Donald Trump, MAGA, Trump
Pope McCorkle, a Democratic consultant and professor at Duke’s Sanford School of Public Policy, argued in an email that the results of this year’s Republican primary election on March 5 demonstrate that “the North Carolina G.O.P. is now a MAGA party. With the gubernatorial nomination of Mark Robinson, the N.C. G.O.P. is clearly in the running for the most MAGA party in the nation.”As they are elsewhere, MAGA leaders in North Carolina are confrontational. In February 2018, Robinson, the first Black lieutenant governor of the state, described on Facebook his view of survivors of school shootings who then publicly call for gun control.
Persons: Trump’s, Pope McCorkle, MAGA, Mark Robinson, Robinson, Organizations: Democratic, Duke’s Sanford School of Public, Republican, North Carolina G.O.P, Facebook Locations: North Carolina, G.O.P
While the Supreme Court ruling on Monday that states cannot bar Donald Trump from appearing on their presidential ballots garnered a lot of attention, the more politically consequential decision came on Feb. 28, when the court set a hearing on Trump’s claim of presidential immunity for the week of April 22. That delay is both a devastating blow to the Biden campaign and a major assist to Trump’s multipronged effort to minimize attention to the details of the 91 felony charges against him. It increases the likelihood that neither of the two federal indictments against Trump will come to trial before the November election. A failure to hold at least one of these trials before Nov. 5 would undermine a key Democratic goal: to expand voters’ awareness of the dangers posed by a second Trump term. Those trials, should they occur, are very likely to produce a flood of daily headlines and television broadcasts describing Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection and his sequestering of classified government documents in his Mar-a-Lago home — a media onslaught reminiscent of the Senate Watergate hearings, which stretched out over 51 days in 1973.
Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Trump’s Organizations: Trump
One of the major reasons white non-college voters turned to Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 is the fear of lost white hegemony — that the United States will become a majority-minority nation sometime in the near future. Almost simultaneously, however, the decisively majority-minority work force will be providing the bulk of the revenue going toward Social Security and Medicare. In other words, the payroll taxes collected from a majority-minority population will be sustaining the white working class men and women who are still alive by midcentury, dependent on those two programs for half their retirement income and for a large share of their medical costs. The evolving role of minorities in the domestic economy is just one example of the profound role births, deaths and rates of immigration play in shaping the balance of power between red and blue America.
Persons: Donald Trump Organizations: Social Security Locations: United States, America
A chorus of political analysts on the center left is once again arguing that the Democratic Party must reclaim a significant share of racially and culturally conservative white working-class voters if it is to regain majority status. “For Victory in 2024, Democrats Must Win Back the Working Class,” Will Marshall, the founder and president of the Progressive Policy Institute, wrote in October 2023. “Can Democrats Win Back the Working Class?” Jared Abbott and Fred DeVeaux of the Center for Working-Class Politics asked in June 2023; “Democrats Need Biden to Appeal to Working-Class Voters” is how David Byler, the former Washington Post data columnist put it that same month. First, is the Democratic attempt to recapture white working class voters a fool’s errand? Is this constituency irrevocably committed to the Republican Party — deaf to the appeal of a Democratic Party it sees as committed to racial and cultural liberalism?
Persons: John B, Judis, Ruy Teixeira, Will Marshall, Jared Abbott, Fred DeVeaux, Biden, David Byler Organizations: Democratic Party, Progressive Policy Institute, , Center, Washington Post, Democratic, Republican Party
What does President Biden have to do to catch up to Donald Trump? Unless the media and other trusted nonpartisan civil society institutions are forthright in affirming that the 2024 election is not a contest between two politicians, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but a virtual constitutional referendum, Trump could win. The most recent NBC News poll, conducted at the end of January, has Trump favored over Biden by a substantial 47-42 percent. Six of these states — all but North Carolina — voted for Biden in 2020. Trump now leads Biden in all seven of them.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Michael Podhorzer, Podhorzer, Joe Biden, Trump, MAGA, , Carolina — Organizations: AFL, NBC, Trump, Biden, Voters, Republican, Democratic, Bloomberg, Carolina Locations: Arizona , Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, California, New York, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania
In a bid to weaken Donald Trump’s domination of the immigration crisis going into the 2024 election, President Biden has reversed his position and adopted a high-risk strategy. Trump, acutely aware of the critical importance of immigration to his campaign, is determined to block Biden’s border security proposal, now under negotiation in the Senate. Trump, of course, wants to make sure that the “crisis at the border” remains foremost in the minds of voters through Election Day. “A Border Deal now would be another Gift to the Radical Left Democrats,” Trump declared in a post on Jan. 25 on Truth Social. “They need it politically, but don’t care about our Border.”
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Biden, Trump, ” Trump Organizations: Times, Trump, Senate, Radical Left Democrats, Truth Locations: United States
Opinion | We Are Normalizing Trump. Again.
  + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Thomas B. Edsall | )   time to read: +1 min
Over the past nine years, Donald Trump has been variously described as narcissistic, mendacious, authoritarian, unbalanced, ignorant, incompetent, egotistical and racist — as someone who demonizes minorities and fans ethnic hostility. These assessments are a major reason roughly half of American voters, according to polls, say they will not vote for him. But even as Trump has steadily escalated his defiance of behavioral norms, a substantial share of the American electorate remains willing to cast a ballot for him. Approximately half of the electorate views Trump as a legitimate 2024 presidential contender, repeatedly demonstrating in surveys that they plan to vote for him in a matchup with President Biden. Followers granting political legitimacy to Trump go well beyond his hard core MAGA supporters.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, MAGA Locations: U.S
On Oct. 15, 2020, in a rare display of humility, Donald Trump told a campaign rally in Greenville, N.C., that he was not as famous as Jesus Christ. “Somebody said to me the other day ‘You’re the most famous person in the world by far.’ I said, ‘No, I’m not.’ They said, ‘Yes, you are. I said no.’ They said, ‘Who’s more famous?’ I said, ‘Jesus Christ.’ ”This exhibition of modesty was out of character. Trump, his family and his supporters have been more than willing to claim that Trump is ordained by God for a special mission, to restore America as a Christian nation. In recent weeks, for example, the former president posted a video called “God Made Trump” on Truth Social that was produced by a conservative media group technically independent of the Trump campaign.
Persons: Donald Trump, Christ, “ Somebody, , , ‘ Jesus Christ, Trump, God Locations: Greenville, N.C, America
Opinion | Fearful of Trump’s Autocratic Ambitions
  + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( )   time to read: +1 min
It is imperative that all Americans actively promote and support democracy against threats both foreign and domestic. Donald Trump is so unhinged and delusional that nothing would stop him from denying the election results once again and trying to stop Congress from certifying the results. This issue should be front and center as one of too-many-to-count reasons that this man should be stopped! Robin KroopnickBranford, Conn.To the Editor:Re “The Roots of Trump’s Rage,” by Thomas B. Edsall (Opinion guest essay,, Nov. 22):What’s the point of analyzing Donald Trump’s psyche to find out why he seethes with hate? It’s far more important to understand just why that hate finds ready purchase among such a large swath of the electorate.
Persons: James H, Donald Trump, Robin Kroopnick Branford, Thomas B, Donald, Trump Organizations: Mills Cumberland, CNN, Republican Locations: Mills Cumberland Center , Maine, Conn
I asked her whether No Labels should be required to register as a political party. If No Labels fields candidates, it should register as a political party. It has the basic structure of a modern electoral organization, with leaders, data and campaign analysts, fund-raisers, and volunteers. A No Labels candidate, Kuo continued:will likely serve as a spoiler in what is shaping up to be a very tight race between President Biden and former President Trump. Given where No Labels is trying to position itself on the partisan spectrum, it is very likely that its candidate would draw votes from President Biden, rather than Donald Trump — with grave consequences for American democracy.
Persons: Kuo, Biden, Trump, Donald Trump, Seth Masket, Fred Wertheimer, , , Wertheimer, Gary Jacobson, Nancy Jacobson Organizations: University of Denver, Democracy, University of California, Trump, Trump’s Locations: Arizona , Wisconsin, Georgia, San Diego
I asked some of those who first warned about the dangers Trump poses what their views are now. At times it seems as if he cannot control himself or his hateful speech. We need to wonder if these are the precursors of a major deterioration in his character defenses. In recent months, Trump has continued to add to the portrait Glass paints of him. At the California Republican Convention on Sept. 29, Trump told the gathering that under his administration shoplifters will be subject to extrajudicial execution: “We will immediately stop all the pillaging and theft.
Persons: Leonard L, Glass, Trump, Hitler, remorseless Trump, ” Trump, Joe Biden, Trump’s, Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey, Devlin Barrett, John F, Kelly, William P, Barr, Ty Cobb, Mark, Organizations: Harvard Medical School, Democrats, California Republican, Claremont, White, The Washington Post, Justice Department, Joint Chiefs Locations: Waco , Texas, California, Claremont N.H, America, The
What do the strikingly different public responses to two recent Supreme Court rulings, one on abortion, the other on affirmative action, suggest about the future prospects for the liberal agenda? Last year’s Dobbs decision — overturning the longstanding precedent set by Roe v. Wade in 1973 — angered both moderate and liberal voters, providing crucial momentum for Democratic candidates in the 2022 midterm elections, as well as in elections earlier this month. Since Dobbs, there have been seven abortion referendums, including in red states like Ohio, Kansas, Kentucky and Montana. In contrast, the Supreme Court decision in June that ended race-based affirmative action in college admissions provoked a more modest outcry, and it played little, if any, role on Election Day 2023. As public interest fades, so too do the headlines and media attention generally.
Persons: Dobbs, Roe, Wade, Organizations: Democratic Locations: Ohio , Kansas , Kentucky, Montana
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