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☆ Good news: The ‘hard landing’ forecasters got it wrong
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

But as we wind down 2024, one thing appears clear: The naysayers on Team Hard Landing got it wrong. The “soft landing” versus “hard landing” metaphor — perhaps overused but visually handy — refers to the economy as an airplane and the Fed as the pilot. Pull the right levers at the right time, and you get a nice comfortable soft landing, with inflation cooling and the labor market thriving. He was far from alone in thinking that a soft landing was little more than a fantasy. “We should just drop the soft landing versus hard landing discourse and start talking about a robust expansion at mid-cycle,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Schwab Network in an interview.

Persons: CNN Business ’, everyone’s, ”, Sung Won Sohn, we’d, ” Aaron, “, there’s, Justin Wolfers, Bill Dudley, “ I’ve, Dudley, Larry Summers, they’re, Joe Brusuelas Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Loyola Marymount University, Fed, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, ICYMI, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg, RSM, Schwab Network Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Meet Michal Kosinski, the Oppenheimer of AI's Scariest Future
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Adam Rogers | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +20 min

Eugenicists used photographs and IQ tests to determine which people were "inferior," and sterilized those who didn't measure up — which usually turned out to be anyone who wasn't white and rich. Before he worked with photographs, Kosinski was interested in Facebook. It's just picking up on the way gay people present themselves on dating sites — which, not surprisingly, is often very different from the way straight people present themselves to potential partners. Kosinski thinks AI's ability to make the kind of personality judgments he studies will only get better. That is the future Kosinski fears — even as he continues to tinker with the very models that prove it will come to pass.

Persons: Michal Kosinski, Kosinski, I'm, they'd, isn't, Oppenheimer, David Stillwell, Stillwell, aren't, Brian Stauffer, Aleksandr Kogan, Donald Trump, —, Kosinski isn't, MAGA, Bernie bros, Alexander Todorov, It's, they've, — Francis Galton, Ronald Fisher, Karl Pearson —, Aubrey Clayton, Hitler, Trump, They're, Adam Rogers Organizations: Stanford University, Kosinski, Facebook, Cambridge, Cambridge Psychometrics, National Academy of Sciences, Psychometrics, BI, intuit, Guardian, Rights, GLAAD, Stanford, HRC, University of Chicago, US Supreme, tinker, Business Locations: California, Stanford, Kosinski, Russia

☆ Why workers who lose their jobs to AI will be better off than the Midwest manufacturing employees of two decades ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Similar to US manufacturing workers who lost their jobs in recent decades to advancements like automation, those displaced by AI could find themselves without the skills needed for the modern workforce. It comes down to when — and where — AI job losses are likely to materialize. Davis said there are several reasons workers who are displaced by AI should have an easier time finding work than many manufacturing workers of the past. Impacted workers in cities would be more likely to have job opportunities than workers where manufacturing jobs were concentrated, which often were in the Midwest. Widespread AI job displacement won't happen for at least a decadeWhile Davis is uncertain about the timing and scale of AI job displacement, he said he doesn't expect AI to drive major job losses over the next decade.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, It's, Steven Davis, Hoover Institute —, Davis, it's, — Davis, they've, they're, Joe Biden, there's, Jim Covello, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Hoover Institute, Stanford University —, Bureau of Labor Statistics —

☆ Why these 8 things have gotten much more expensive even as inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The consumer price index rose 3% year-over-year — it hasn't been below 3% since March 2021. However, eight expense categories had price increases of more than 10% over the last year. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In June, the consumer price index rose 3% year-over-year, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics — it hasn't been below 3% since March 2021. The expense categories with the biggest year-over-year price declines included smartphones, used cars, and apples — each fell by over 10%.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Business

☆ Here are 6 buying categories cheaper today than they were before the pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Gabriel Cortés | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

So when worldwide events like the Covid-19 pandemic push inflation well above that 2% target, it can be a real shock to consumers. There are a handful of retail categories, dominated by consumer electronics, that buck the trend and are actually cheaper now than they were before the pandemic, based on a CNBC review of CPI categories in June 2024 compared with June 2019. Same price, better valueEven when annual inflation was at its peak, prices for consumer electronics consistently showed signs of deflation. Such hedonic adjustments — the term BLS uses to describe it's adjustments for changes in item quality — span the whole consumer price index and include categories from men's underwear to home computers to refrigerators. Why televisions continue to be cheapBut hedonic adjustments can't account for everything when the CPI is registering drops in prices.

Persons: it's, Andrew Csicsila, That's, Csicsila Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Americas

☆ Chinese consumers aren't buying enough stuff, and it's taking a toll on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewChina's belt-tightening consumers are dragging on the country's economy even as external demand supports exports, official data released on Monday shows. The fresh data shows China's economy continues to be bogged down by its real-estate crisis , stock-market volatility, geopolitical headwinds, and demographic challenges. AdvertisementPeople are just not spending enoughEven though disposable income grew in the second quarter of this year, consumers in China are reluctant to spend. Economic outlook for the second half of the yearChina's economic outlook isn't that rosy for the second half of this year either. However, they added that headwinds remain in the second half of the year, including the "tapering of post-COVID pent-up consumer demand."

Persons: —, Nomura, China's, Donald Trump's, Yeap, Rong Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics —, Reuters, Business, Bureau of Statistics, Nomura Locations: China, Beijing

☆ The 10 highest-paying blue-collar construction jobs in the US
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( John Towfighi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

For many, trade jobs provide a financially secure alternative to a college degree. AdvertisementA new report by Pro Tools Reviews, an industry news and review site, highlights the highest-paying trade jobs in the US, giving insight into career opportunities that don't require a college degree. Experts at Pro Tools analyzed May 2023 wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — the latest available — to determine the most lucrative trade jobs. Pro Tool Reviews also examined the most in-demand trade jobs in the US. AdvertisementHave you recently switched to a trade job, or are you a recent graduate looking to land a trade role?

Persons: —, Zers, Gen Zers, Clint DeBoer, DeBoer Organizations: Service, Business, Pro, Tools, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, boilermakers, LinkedIn Locations: jtowfighi@businessinisder.com

☆ A rate cut in June is still on tap because the job market is weakening, Citi economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It's still likely the Fed will issue its first rate cut this June, Citi economist Veronica Clark said. That's because central bankers will need to support a weakening labor market, Clark told Yahoo Finance. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is still likely to cut rates in June in order to prop up the labor market amid a slowdown in hiring, according to Citi economist Veronica Clark. "We have a base case for June still," Clark said of rate cuts, though she noted a July Fed rate cut was also possible. Markets are now pricing in just one or two cuts by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from as many as seven rate cuts projected at the start of 2024.

Persons: It's, Veronica Clark, Clark, —, That's, Powell Organizations: Citi, Yahoo Finance, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics — Locations: Central

☆ China's GDP rose 5.3% in the first quarter, but it doesn't mean the economic pain is over
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

China's economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024, surpassing analyst expectations. China's property market struggles persist, with 1Q new home sales falling nearly 31% from a year ago. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: —, Sheng Laiyun Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics —, Bloomberg, NBS, Business Locations: China, Beijing

☆ A couple that quit full-time work in their 20s share the money mindset that 'propelled' them to financial independence without altering their quality of life: 'We made zero sacrifices'
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Kathleen Elkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Lauren and Steven Keys built a million-dollar portfolio from scratch, which set them up to quit their full-time jobs in their 20s and pursue various side projects and creative work. "We made, honestly, zero sacrifices on our journey," Steven said, noting that they never budgeted or tracked their spending. The couple kept the cost of their hobbies in check and sometimes even found ways to monetize them. In fact, it made us significantly more money than it cost us in the first place," said Steven. Playing Magic: The Gathering, on aggregate over my lifetime, has actually made me money, not cost me."

Persons: Lauren, Steven Keys, Steven, we're Organizations: Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics — Locations: The Florida, United States

☆ Gen Z Is Primed to Succeed at Starting Their Own Small Business
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Eve Upton-Clark | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

He was able to scale the business to more than $600,000 in revenue by 2018, when he graduated from high school. Before the internet, starting a business was a serious hassle. The problem wasn't that people weren't interested in starting a business: A 2016 EY study found that 62% of 18- to 34-year-olds had toyed with venturing into business ownership. That has made starting a business all the more appealing — and affordable — for prospective entrepreneurs. And with the plethora of digital tools we have today, starting a business is more accessible than ever.

Persons: Luke Lintz, Lintz, Bernhard Schroeder, Schroeder, Gen Zers, —, Martin Warner, Warner, GoDaddy, HighKey, Nicki Minaj, Kevin Hart, Khloé Kardashian, Tom Peters, Peters, " Schroeder, ZenBusiness, Gen, Zers, he'd Organizations: Apple, Shipping, Lavin Entrepreneurship, San Diego State University, Entrepreneurship, Dynamics Statistics, Business, Fast Company, Small Business Administration Locations: North America, China

☆ The gig economy, overemployment, and job switching have made it easier than ever to boost your income. But those strategies aren't always worth it.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Some side hustles come with a significant time investment and unpredictable pay. Related storiesNot all side hustles come with the time investment that ride-hailing does. But everyone with a side gig is faced with the same question: Are the extra working hours worth the financial reward? Only eight months after he started, he resigned from his two extra roles and decided to stop job-juggling for the time being. But all prospective job-switchers are faced with the same question: Are the uncertainties that come with a new job worth the financial reward?

Persons: —, switchers, Lyft, There's, overemployment Organizations: Service, Business, Harris Poll, Uber, Twin Cities, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Harris, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta, Minnesota, Texas

☆ Opinion | China’s Economy Is in Serious Trouble
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Many economists (though not me) argued that getting inflation down would require years of high unemployment; instead, we’ve experienced immaculate disinflation, rapidly falling inflation at no visible cost. But the story has been very different in the world’s biggest economy (or second biggest — it depends on the measure). Instead, China has underperformed by just about every economic indicator other than official G.D.P., which supposedly grew by 5.2 percent. Democratic nations like the United States rarely politicize their economic statistics — although ask me again if Donald Trump returns to office — but authoritarian regimes often do. Even the official statistics say that China is experiencing Japan-style deflation and high youth unemployment.

Persons: we’ve, Donald Trump, It’s Organizations: Democratic Locations: U.S, China, United States, Japan

☆ I moved to Germany from the US for free education and almost got deported. It's one of the best things that ever happened to me.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Adriana Stein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

After studying for 6 months, she failed a German language test and lost her student visa. I spent six months learning German from scratch at an in-person German language school. I failed the language test and learned first hand how strict rules could be in GermanyEverything felt set. I still live in Hamburg, Germany with my husband, who I met here. Failing the German language test and being rejected from my master's program was tough, but the resilience that blossomed has been worth it.

Persons: Adriana Stein, —, I've, I'd, Germany —, I Organizations: Service, Portland State University, University of Hamburg, University, Craigslist, AS Marketing Locations: Germany, Spain, Hamburg, Eastern Oregon, undergrad, Oregon

☆ A Record 119,300 New York City Students Were Homeless Last Year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Troy Closson | More About Troy Closson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The number of homeless public school students in New York City reached an all-time high of 119,320 last school year, according to new data released Wednesday, as migrants crossing the southern border continued to flock to the city. The statistics — which include children in shelters, hotels, relatives’ homes and other transient places — illuminate the challenges for Mayor Eric Adams’s administration in handling the rise in homeless students. New York City’s homeless student population is now larger than the entire traditional public school system of Philadelphia. Now, about 1 in 9 New York City students are homeless. In one section of the Bronx, more than 22 percent of students were homeless.

Persons: Eric Adams’s Organizations: New York Locations: New York City, York, Philadelphia, Bronx

☆ Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk isn't just Europe's second-most valuable company. It is also singlehandedly boosting Denmark's economy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Ozempic-maker Novo Nordisk is Europe's second-largest company by market capitalization. It's also boosting Denmark's economy all on its own. AdvertisementAdvertisementNot only that, Novo Nordisk has also been propping up Denmark's economy all on its own. Jonas Petersen, an analyst at Denmark's statistics department, further told the AFP that the trend is "changing the picture of the economy." Denmark's statistics department and Danske Bank's Olsen did not immediately respond to requests from Insider for comment sent outside regular business hours.

Persons: It's, would've, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Elon Musk, Amy Schumer, they've, Las Olsen, Jonas Petersen, Bank's Olsen Organizations: Novo Nordisk, pharma, Service, Novo Nordisk's, Novo, Danske Bank, AFP, Nordisk Locations: Wall, Silicon, Europe

☆ Real talk? Here's the probability a Supreme Court justice dies in the next presidential term
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Walt Hickey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Supreme Court has a major impact on everyday Americans' lives. The thing is, the ramifications of what a Supreme Court can do are vastly more important than the feelings of a couple of justices. There is a 6-3 split on the court, with the justices appointed by GOP presidents enjoying a rather substantial lead. Democrats probably need to think about what an acceptable level of risk is for losing control of the Supreme Court for generations. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg decided against retiring during President Obama's term despite a desire from the president to ensure her replacement reflected her liberal values.

Persons: Roe, Wade, Biden, Sonia Sotomayor, Elana Kagan, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Ruth Bader Ginsberg, Obama's, Trump, Amy Coney Barrett Organizations: Service, Social Security Administration, Republican, Democratic, GOP Locations: Wall, Silicon, it's

☆ The remote work revolution is crashing into a cold reality: Research is finding workers are less productive at home
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Recent research found that fully remote workers were less productive than office workers. A recent analysis of multiple studies by the Stanford economist Nick Bloom, a leading remote-work expert, found that fully remote workers were 10% to 20% less productive than their in-office counterparts. But the research has found, on average, those working in the office at least some of the time are more productive . Even Zoom, which is synonymous with remote work, recently called some employees back to the office for at least two days a week. Bloom recently estimated 60% of Americans worked fully in person, 30% worked in person between one and four days per week, and 10% worked fully remotely.

Persons: Nick Bloom, Mark Zuckerberg, Marc Benioff, Jeff Moriarty, Moriarty, he's, Kate Ecke, Ecke, telehealth, it's, Raj Choudhury, Stanford's Bloom, Bloom Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Stanford, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Meta, Harvard Business School Locations: Wall, Silicon, India, Chicago, New Jersey

Devastating wildfires linked to climate change have lately become somewhat normal in the American West and beyond. In that sense, the Maui fires are nothing new. The ones on Maui this week are destructive in part because of the island’s isolation, fragile supply chains and dependence on tourism. The winds driving the fires, driven themselves in part by a hurricane passing hundreds of miles away in the Pacific Ocean, were expected to ease on Thursday. Phone service was down in some parts of the island’s west coast, including Hawaii’s former royal capital, Lahaina, where fire has been ripping through weathered wooden storefronts.

Persons: ”, Burgess Harrison, “ Organizations: Fire, U.S . Coast Guard, Hawaii Department of Health Locations: Maui, American, Maui and Minnesota, Minnesota, Hawaii, Lahaina

☆ What’s ahead this week for Wall Street and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-23 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Case Shiller house price index for May and consumer confidence for July from the Conference Board. Earnings reports from AT&T, Boeing, Meta Platforms, Mattel, Stellantis and Chipotle Mexican Grill. Earnings reports from Coca-Cola, Mondelez, Honeywell, Keurig Dr Pepper, Royal Caribbean, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines and Hershey. Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for June, Employment Cost Index for the second quarter and University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July. Earnings reports from Procter & Gamble, Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Smith, Powell, Christopher Waller, ”, Dustin Thackeray, Tesla, Chris Isidore, —, Case, Dr Pepper Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Fed, Traders, Rockland Trust, Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Crewe Advisors, Nasdaq, Netflix, Safety, Health Administration, doesn’t, Biden Administration, Bureau of Labor Statistics —, Ryanair, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, General Motors, Daniels, Midland, Verizon, PacWest, Boeing, Mattel, Honeywell, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Southwest Airlines, Hershey, University of Michigan, Procter & Gamble, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Rockland, American, United States, PacWest Bank, Royal Caribbean

☆ A Texas town is trying to solve the US physician shortage with 'homegrown' clinicians — a possible answer to the primary-care drought plaguing 100 million Americans
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Natalie Rahhal | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

El Paso is among the 95% of Texas counties that have some shortage of primary-care physicians. The hope is they will stay and practice medicine in El Paso after medical school and residency. El Paso County, which includes the city of the same name, is among the 95% of Texas counties that have a shortage of primary-care physicians. The idea, he added, is that those participants will have a higher likelihood of staying after medical school and residency. Makena Piñon is one of five El Paso high school seniors accepted into MedFuture's first cohort.

Persons: Piñon, They're, Atul Grover, —, Grover, we've, hasn't, Dr, Richard Lange, Paul L, Lange, Makena, TTUHSC, Cynthia Perry Organizations: Healthcare, Morning, El Paso, National Center for Education Statistics —, Association of American Medical Colleges, Research, Action Institute, Office, University of Texas, Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center El, El, Foster School of Medicine, Association of American Medical, Texas Higher Locations: El Paso, Texas, El, Houston, El Paso County, —, Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center El Paso, TTUHSC El Paso, , Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana

☆ In the Paris Suburb Where Police Shot a Teenager, Violence and Vigilance
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( Constant Méheut | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Nanterre is one such suburb. The public-housing high-rises of Pablo-Picasso, standing just outside the Paris business district of La Défense, stand as examples of that effort. But Nanterre continues to suffer from high unemployment — 14 percent compared with 8 percent nationally in 2020, according to official statistics — and some neighborhoods, including Pablo-Picasso, suffer from drug-trafficking. Still, the violence of recent days has baffled many neighborhood residents who see it destroying property in the place they live, which simply makes people’s lives harder. “The anger is as strong as the violence of the tragedy,” said Ms. Mohamed Saly, who manages Le 35, a popular neighborhood restaurant with her husband, Brahim Rochdi.

Persons: rekindling, Pablo, Picasso, ”, Mohamed Saly, Brahim, “ Organizations: Nanterre Locations: France, Nanterre, Paris, La, Le

☆ I'm an AI-prompt engineer. Here are my 3 requirements for writing a prompt for chatbots like ChatGPT.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Marc Shoffman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

I joined AutogenAI, a company that has built a language model companies use for bid and tender writing, in July 2022. At university, I focused mostly on analytic philosophy, such as mathematical logic, formal logic, philosophy of science, and linguistics. It is fundamental to understand that when prompting a large language model, you are, in some way, communicating with it. The command, "make this paragraph better," assumes the language model knows whether that means longer, shorter, clearer, or less boring. Though this may be intuitive to you, it isn't explicitly clear to the language model.

Persons: Teodora Danilovic, —, I've Organizations: Service, King's College, Serbian Locations: King's College London, London, Serbian, Silicon Valley

☆ Americans are spending less money even as the Chinese spend more. Take a look at the 5 major US companies winning on China's spending spree.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

As people in China get out of their homes to travel and spend, retail sales have improved in China, rising almost 11% year-on-year in March. In comparison, China's core inflation rose just 0.7% in March from a year ago, according to official data from Beijing. All this means American companies facing a slowdown in US consumption are getting a boost from Chinese demand. He added the MGM China division posted a "swift return to profitability." Net revenues for the MGM China division were also 130% higher from a year ago "amid strong reopening trends," MGM said in its earnings release.

☆ What to expect from the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —If the latest employment trends continue and economists’ forecasts prove true, Friday’s jobs report could bring back that pre-pandemic feeling. Economists expect the US economy to have added 180,000 jobs in April, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. It could also hammer home the fact that the US labor market has indeed cooled down from its red-hot recovery over the past two years. What a rising unemployment rate meansEconomists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%, according to Refinitiv. Mixed signalsPayroll processor ADP’s monthly look at private-sector employment activity, released two days before the BLS’ employment report, is sometimes looked at as a preview of what to expect from the federal data.

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