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Societe Generale's Albert Edwards - 5 Louis - 3 Edwards - 3 Piper Sandler - 2 David Rosenberg - 1 Merrill Lynch — - 1 Rosenberg - 1 It's - 1
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Search resuls for: "Societe Generale's Albert Edwards"


11 mentions found


☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks look 'eerily similar' to how they did before their 25% drop in 2022 — and says the US economy is still heading for a downturn
  + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, —, Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
☆ 'The damage has already been done': A 31-year market vet shares 3 pieces of evidence that the labor market is about to collapse, sending the economy into recession and the stock market spiraling
  + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .
☆ What landing? Global economy's twin engines rev up
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | Thomson Reuters | Jamie Mcgeever Has Been A Financial Journalist Since | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank
☆ 'The vast bulk of companies are in big trouble': A renowned bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a recession is still on the way as bankruptcies rise — threatening to sink even the mega-cap stocks
  + stars: | 2023-09-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
While big firms have survived high rates, Edwards said a recession would eventually hurt them too. Here are the effective interest rates for a few cohorts of the S&P 1500. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows 49% of banks are tightening lending standards for small companies. They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates," Edwards said. "In our view, the current savings rate is unsustainably low, and the main downside risk to growth is that the savings rate will suddenly move higher."
Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards, haven't, Louis, that's, we'll, Brian Rose, Rose, Piper Sandler, it's Organizations: Societe Generale's, Societe Generale, American Bankruptcy Institute, Generale, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Institute, Supply Management's, UBS Americas, UBS Companies
☆ 'Something very strange' explains why a US recession has been delayed
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
"Something very strange has happened" in the economy that is preventing a recession, Societe Generale said. The bank highlighted that as the Fed raised interest rates over the past year, corporate net interest payments actually fell. According to Societe Generale, "something very strange has happened" that explains why a US recession has been delayed, and it has to do with some timely moves made by corporations. The bank highlighted that going back to at least 1975, corporate net interest payments would rise as the Fed raised interest rates. "Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy.
Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, SocGen's Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale's, Bank of America, Companies Locations: Wall, Silicon
☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
  + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.
☆ 'The equity market is poised to struggle in the weeks and months ahead': Comerica Bank's CIO says the S&P 500 is primed for a 15% drop as weak earnings, high valuations, and a hawkish Fed all work aga
  + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.
☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns that the stock sell-off is 'not over by a long shot' — and that the S&P 500 could sink by more than 50%
  + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Hussman called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Sure, the S&P 500 is down 17% from its peak on the first day of trading in 2022, 15 months ago. But the numbers don't lie, says Hussman, who called the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. Wilson sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300, making him one of the more bearish strategists on the Street. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did.
☆ The chief investment strategist at a $540 billion firm explains why the stock market may have already bottomed for the year — and why he sees opportunity in the market's most beaten-down names
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Wes Crill believes the stock market may have already bottomed, according to historical precedence. In the long term, he's bullish on value stocks once again taking the reigns as market leaders. "In fact, the average return for value stocks was a little bit higher in periods where the overall stock market was positive." Across Wall Street, Crill's not the only one with a longer-term overweight towards value stocks. Instead, he says investors should stick to what history dictates works best: value stocks over a long time horizon.
☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks still have 60% further downside as sky-high valuations remain more inflated than every other crash over the last 100 years exce
  + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
John Hussman says stocks remain more overvalued than nearly every bubble over the last century. This week, Mike Wilson and Albert Edwards also said stocks remain highly overvalued. Right now, that risk-reward ratio for stocks is abysmal, says John Hussman, the president of the Hussman Investment Trust who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes. Hussman FundsTo illustrate how out-of-whack stocks are relative to Treasury rates, Hussman compiled the below chart. This would mean around 60% further downside from levels seen earlier this week, when Hussman published the commentary.
☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com crash warns stock valuations are at 'nosebleed' levels — and suggests that tech stocks could be the market's 'Achilles' heel'
  + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Societe Generale's Albert Edwards warns stock valuations are at 'nosebleed' levels. Historically, when yields are low, higher stock valuations are accepted as investors seek yield. But currently high yields in the Treasury market mean stock valuations, on a historical basis, should be lower. Societe GeneraleEdwards said the drop in long-term growth expectations could be assigned to a deteriorating outlook for tech stocks. Societe Generale"An expensive US CAPE ratio has long been justified by the US market's far higher weighting in tech," he said.
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