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☆ 'Sell the first rate cut': Bank of America's top global strategist warns stocks could be in for trouble as the economy heads toward a hard landing and the Fed gets set to slash rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

In an August 1 note to clients, the bank's top global strategist urged investors to sell stocks when the Federal Reserve issues its first rate cut. Hartnett and his team studied the last 12 rate-cutting cycles going back to 1970 and identified three varieties of rate cuts. Hartnett said surging global central bank rate cuts are signs that the economy is in for a rough stretch. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time this cycle at its September meeting. "Emergency Fed rate cuts being priced in makes little sense given the economic backdrop in the U.S. and would only serve to destroy policy maker credibility."

Persons: —, America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Louis, Jean, Louis Nakamura, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Hartnett's, Jim Smigiel Organizations: Service, America's, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America Bank of America, Bank of America, Louis Fed, Bank of America's, Global, SEI Locations: U.S

☆ The Nvidia spell has been broken. Here’s what could come next
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —Nvidia, Nvidia, Nvidia. Nvidia’s stock bounced back Tuesday, yet investors have been reminded of a potentially bubble-bursting truth: You can fly too close to the sun. For context, it took Warren Buffett about 60 years to build Berkshire Hathaway into a nearly trillion dollar company. But typical volatility can have seismic repercussions when it comes to a stock as all-consuming as Nvidia. Analysts at The Carlyle Group say that while artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the world around us, the Nvidia stock bubble will eventually burst.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft’s, ”, Jim Smigiel, Louis Navellier, Nvidia’s, ” Jochen Stanzl, Emily Bowersock Hill, Jason Thomas, Carlyle’s, ” Neil Roarty, Stocklytics, —, Levi’s, “, LEVI, ” Read, Ryan Callahan, ” Callahan, CDK, Tom McParland Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, London CNN, Nvidia, Berkshire, Deutsche Bank, SEI, Navellier, Associates, CMC, CNN, Bowersock Capital Partners, The Carlyle Group, ’ Association, Mazda, North America, Automatic Consulting Locations: London, Turkey, Istanbul, Seekonk , Massachusetts

☆ Now is probably a good time to hedge against downside risk in the stock market. Here are 4 ways you can protect your portfolio — including 2 that are historically cheap.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.

Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez

☆ Inflation numbers are signaling the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, says SEI's Jim Smigiel
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation numbers are signaling the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, says SEI's Jim SmigielJim Smigiel, SEI chief investment officer and Ross Mayfield, Baird investment strategy analyst, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action, inflation numbers, the state of the economy and more.

Persons: Jim Smigiel Jim Smigiel, Ross Mayfield, Baird Organizations: SEI

☆ Easing inflation pressures give the Fed room to skip a rate hike. But then what?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Softening inflation data for May likely has bought the Federal Reserve at least a month, though not much more, before it has to figure out what to do next. Following the CPI release Tuesday morning, markets priced in a 95% probability that the Fed will skip a hike at its two-day meeting concluding Wednesday, according to CME Group data . "The latest consumer price inflation data doesn't change the Fed outlook for a June rate hike skip, but it illustrates the 'should I stay, or should I go' dilemma that the Fed faces when considering further rate increases," wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. After this week's meeting, Fed officials will release their "dot plot" rate projections for the next few years, plus their collective outlook on inflation, GDP and unemployment. The retreat on inflation, then, presents both an opportunity and a challenge for a Fed that was caught off guard by the big price surge.

Persons: Gregory Daco, Jim Smigiel, Krishna Guha, Guha, Jerome Powell, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Group, SEI, Evercore ISI, Tech, Pantheon Locations: EY

☆ A CIO overseeing $399 billion explains why it's imperative that investors make sure they're globally diversified in 2023 to avoid 'home country bias' — and where the banking crisis has created investi
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Going forward, Smigiel also believes that value-oriented assets will be the next market leaders. Despite starting 2023 off strong, the stock market has struggled to maintain its rally this year in the face of a potential recession, a dire banking crisis, and fears of rising interest rates. But that doesn't mean the stock market will be in the clear anytime soon. Value names will the next market leadersTo capture returns going forward, Smigiel isn't focused on the direction of stock market movements. This is especially true for US investors, Smigiel said, since US assets already make up such a large portion of global cap-weighted indexes.

Concerns have been heightened by the wild swings in market interest rates since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) last week. Fund managers advise shunning high-yield bonds, despite their attractive yields, because of the risk these bonds could be hit by ratings downgrades, defaults and a squeeze in company earnings. Refinitiv Lipper data showed high-yield bond funds, after seeing an inflow of $7.63 billion in January, faced an outflow of $11.51 billion in February. Reuters GraphicsSo far this month, high-yield bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a total outflow of $506 million. However, safer money market funds have attracted $28.76 billion, and government bond funds have seen an inflow of $15.52 billion since February.

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