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LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - China's imports of refined copper have quietly accelerated over recent months, taking volumes to a year-to-date high in October. China's appetite for imported copper is not confined to refined metal. It is also absorbing record amounts of copper concentrates and imports of recyclable metal are running at the fastest pace since 2018. China's trade in refined copperIMPORT STRENGTHChina imported 353,000 metric tons of refined copper in October, which was the highest monthly volume this year. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks, bonded stocks and Yangshan premiumBOOMING OUTPUT, LOW STOCKSHigher raw materials imports this year have allowed China's smelters to ramp up run rates.
Persons: Barbara Lewis Organizations: Democratic, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Stocks, International Energy Exchange, Citi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Democratic Republic of Congo, China, Congo, Beijing, Shanghai
Slowing China still leads the race for commodities
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
"When it comes to copper, the thinking usually goes that copper equals property, property equals China," said one commodities trader. "And because China property is down, copper must be down too." That’s why China's copper demand will still rise by 4 million tonnes from the 2020 level to around 18 million tonnes per year in 2030, according to estimates by commodity trading group Trafigura. And China's copper demand has grown by 8% this year, faster than the 5% Xi is targeting for overall GDP growth. China's annual aluminium demand rose by 18 million tonnes from 2010 to 2020 and is forecast to grow by another 13 million tonnes to over 50 million tonnes a year in 2030, per Trafigura.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Communist Party’s, Wood Mackenzie, Francesco Guerrera, Katrina Hamlin, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, HK, Communist, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, ING, International Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Oxford, HSBC, Democratic, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Washington, Moscow, Taiwan, Shanghai, Republic, United States, Australia, Beijing, Chile, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of Congo
REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin - S1AETWEXAZAA Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - China's exports of refined lead hit a 15-month high in September with year-to-date shipments already exceeding last year's total. China's net trade in refined leadEXPORTS ACCELERATEChina exported 35,400 metric tons of refined lead in September, which was the highest monthly tally since June of last year. LME lead three-month price, cash-3s spread and stocksLME STOCKS REBUILDThe relocation of stocks from China to the West has seen LME stocks rebuild from their depleted year-start levels. Headline stocks of 125,225 metric tons are up by 100,075 metric tons on January and are the highest they've been in almost three years. The LME stocks rebuild has been driven by repeated bouts of tightness across the front part of the forward curve in recent months.
Persons: Ilya Naymushin, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Novoangarsk, Russia, China, Shanghai, Europe, Stolberg, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, Thursday's, London
Traders work on the floor of the London Metal Exchange in London, Britain, September 27, 2018. Rebuilding the London nickel contract is clearly very much work in progress. FIXING NICKELOthers, meanwhile, are looking to muscle into the LME's nickel price discovery domain. The Shanghai market also took a big collateral hit from the London turmoil, volumes on its nickel contract collapsing by 53% last year relative to 2021. The blow-out of the nickel contract and the resulting near-death experience of both brokers and exchange have sapped confidence in the historical market of last resort.
Persons: Simon Dawson, Elliott, Nicolas Aguzin, Matthew Chamberlain, hasn't, it's, Ireland's, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: London Metal Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Elliott Associates, Jane, Trading, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, Bloomberg, London, Global Commodities Holdings, Abaxx Commodities Exchange, Canadian, Technologies Inc, Shanghai Futures Exchange, EV, CME, Reuters, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, London's, China, Shanghai, U.S
REUTERS/Yusuf Ahmad/File Photo - RC2DGT9XQ73M Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Global nickel production will outpace demand to the tune of 239,000 metric tons next year, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG). The cumulative forecast surplus of 566,000 metric tons over the three years is huge relative to the size of the nickel market. Global consumption this year is expected to come in at 3.2 million metric tons. The mining rush fed an 85% jump in production of intermediate products such as nickel pig iron (NPI) and nickel matte and a 20% rise in primary nickel products such as sulphate. But rising global production is also increasingly about China, which lifted its primary nickel production by 18% year-on-year in January-July.
Persons: Yusuf Ahmad, it's, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Study, Global, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Investor, EV, Macquarie Bank, Traders, London, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Lisbon, London, Indonesia, China, Shanghai
REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - China's appetite for base metal imports appears to be growing. FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVEChina's imports of primary aluminium surged to a near two-year high of 153,000 metric tons in August, bringing the year-to-date count to 755,000 metric tons. SLOW COPPER BOAT TO SHANGHAIRefined copper imports were 340,000 metric tons in August, the highest monthly tally this year. The country's refined zinc trade has reverted to net imports this year but volumes remain modest by historical standards. SHIFTING THE NICKEL MIXThere has been no pick-up in China's imports of refined nickel.
Persons: Florence Lo, they've, They've, China's, David Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, LOVE, Malaysian, New, Democratic, China's CMOC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, contango, Shanghai, RUSSIA, U.S, New Zealand, SHANGHAI, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Indonesia
REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Global production of primary aluminium hit an all-time high in August, with the world's smelters running at an annualised rate of 71.2 million metric tons. It now estimates national output rose by 1.3 million metric tons. Global production in August came in at 6.0 million metric tons, up 1.6% on August last year, while cumulative production of 46.5 million metric tons was up 1.7% on the year-ago period. The country's annualised run-rate has increased by 2.1 million metric tons since March and registered a fresh all-time high of 42.4 million tons in August. Everything depends on rainfall levels in Yunnan, which has emerged as a major aluminium production hub due to its "green", low-carbon credentials.
Persons: Stringer, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, International Aluminium Institute, IAI, Institute, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London, Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Binzhou, Shandong province, China, Malaysia, Iran, Yunnan, Sichuan
China may finally nick some metals clout from LME
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Chan Ka Sing | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The debacle has undermined the venue’s benchmark status in the pricing of nickel, which is essential for making electric vehicles. LME’s trading volumes of the element were down 40% in July from a year earlier. That’s probably why the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) is now planning its own nickel futures contract for international use, Reuters reported on Sept. 13. For the Shanghai exchange, venturing in the opposite route could also prove difficult. CONTEXT NEWSThe Shanghai Futures Exchange is planning to launch a nickel futures contract for international use, Reuters reported on Sept. 13.
Persons: Tsingshan, ShFE, HKEx, Lisa Jucca, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, London Metal Exchange, Asian bourse, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, British, China, Beijing, Indonesia, Shanghai
REUTERS/Beawiharta Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks of tin have grown steadily over the summer months and have reached levels last seen in April 2020. Around half of the tin produced every year is used as a soldering material on circuit boards, linking usage to the fortunes of the consumer electronics sector. Global semiconductor sales from SIABOOM AND BUSTTin's fortunes are closely tied to the consumer electronics sector, which has experienced a remarkable boom-and-bust cycle over the last three years. That translated into a boom year for tin demand, usage growing by 7.6%, led by a 12.2% rise in the soldering sector, according to the International Tin Association. However, global semiconductor sales have registered small month-on-month increases since April and the year-on-year gap narrowed to 11.8% in July, according to the SIA.
Persons: Lockdowns, Boom, Barbara Lewis Organizations: PT Timah, REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, SIA, Semiconductor, Semiconductor Industry Association, International Tin Association, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, Wa State, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mentok, Indonesian, Bangka, Myanmar, London, Shanghai, Wa, China
LME copper stocks and Cash-3s time-spreadSUMMER SURGEAlmost 100,000 metric tons of copper have been warranted in the LME warehouse network since the middle of July, lifting headline stocks to 149,600 metric tons. European inflows have been split between Rotterdam (19,325 metric tons) and the German port of Hamburg (9,850). The CME's delivery locations, however, don't include Mobile, Alabama, where LME copper stocks have grown to 1,925 metric tons. The amount of cancelled stock awaiting physical load-out from the LME warehouse system currently stands at a minimal 225 metric tons. LME, LME shadow, CME, ShFE and INE copper stocksCHINA OFFSETThe copper stocks surge has to date been largely confined to the LME delivery system.
Persons: Emelia Sithole Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Mobile, CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, China, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Asia, Kaohsiung, Busan, New Orleans, Mobile , Alabama, London, ShFE, CHINA
A company logo of Shanghai Futures Exchange is displayed at a booth during LME Week Asia in Hong Kong, China June 14, 2016. REUTERS/Bobby Yip Acquire Licensing RightsBEIJING/LONDON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) is looking into the possible launch of nickel futures for international use, a potential challenge to the London Metal Exchange's (LME) contract, five sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Average daily LME nickel volumes plunged because of the crisis. CME Group (CME.O) is also looking to launch a nickel contract that would settle against prices gathered from a platform to be launched by British-based Global Commodities Holdings (GCH). CME did not respond to a request for an update on its plans for a nickel contract.
Persons: Bobby Yip, ShFE, Nickel, GCH, Pratima Desai, Siyi Liu, Julian Luk, Veronica Brown, Alexander Smith Organizations: Shanghai Futures, REUTERS, Rights, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London, Reuters, International Energy Exchange, CME, Global Commodities Holdings, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, China, Rights BEIJING, LONDON, British, Singapore, Abaxx
China has stepped up domestic output of refined zinc this year, but the Shanghai market continues to be plagued by low inventory and tight time-spreads. China's imports, exports and net trade in refined zincRETURN TO THE IMPORT MARKETChina was a consistent net importer of refined zinc over the last decade, but that changed in 2022. Shanghai zinc stocks seasonal patterns over 2020-2023LOW INVENTORYShFE registered stocks stand at a modest 43,181 tons. Sentiment, however, holds the real key to the Shanghai premium. The country's trade in refined zinc may prove a useful mirror on that question over the next few months.
Persons: Cash, It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: Share, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Citi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Eritrea's, Asmara, Eritrea, China, Shanghai, Europe, Turkey, U.S, Antwerp, Singapore, Malaysia's Port Klang, Kaohsiung, Guangdong, London
Lead market dynamics are currently tepid at best due to weakness in the automotive sector, which accounts for around 70% of total demand in the form of lead-acid batteries. But some of that surplus would be very welcome right now in Shanghai, since the local market is in the grips of a vicious short squeeze. ShFE price, stocks and market open interestBIG SHORTThis Shanghai lead squeeze has been building for a couple of months. ShFE time-spreads were already tightening up in July against a backdrop of low exchange stocks and rising open interest. After exporting surplus metal for two years, the Chinese market seems to be struggling to find enough to deliver into the Shanghai squeeze.
Persons: Darren Whiteside, that's, Emelia Sithole Organizations: REUTERS, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bogor, Jakarta, Indonesia, Shanghai, China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, London
The steady stream of Chinese shipments has served to plug supply gaps in Western markets and helped replenish depleted London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks. China's export impulse is keeping the local market tight, which appears to be attracting a lot of speculative attention to the Shanghai lead contract. The three top destinations over the first half of 2023 were Taiwan (17,500 metric tons), Vietnam (16,100 metric tons) and Bangladesh (10,300 metric tons). LME STOCKS REBUILDSome of China's outbound shipments have been trickling into the LME warehouse system. ShfFE lead price, MOI and stocksCHINA TIGHTNESSWhile LME stocks have been rising, ShFE inventory has been sliding.
Persons: It's, Emelia Sithole Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, China, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Europe, United States, Asia, Taiwan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Kaohsiung, Singapore, Stolberg, MOI, CHINA, London
While there are no international sanctions on Russian metal, many consumers are shunning aluminium produced by Rusal (RUAL.MM), which accounts for 6% of global supplies. U.S. import tariffs on Russian aluminium and products are also prompting some consumers to "self-sanction". Some analysts estimate the discount for Russian aluminium at $100-$300 per metric ton, Norsk Hydro said. As LME aluminium prices are referenced in contracts between consumers, producers and traders, the dominance of Russian aluminium in the system is a problem, said Norsk Hydro's Chief Financial Officer Paal Kildemo. "There is still a risk that even more Russian aluminium will be delivered to LME further weighing on the reference price...
Persons: Paal Kildemo, Kildemo, Rusal, Pratima Desai, Polina Devitt, Eric Onstad, Veronica Brown, Jason Neely Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Norsk Hydro, Reuters, Britain's Financial, Authority, Norsk, Shanghai Futures Exchange, CME, Hydro, FCA, Thomson Locations: Norwegian
LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Copper's electrical conductivity makes it a core component of the green energy transition, whether it be in the form of solar panels, electric vehicles or wind turbines. Which begs the question of where it might be if funds were collectively to buy into the green copper story. Fund positioning on the CME copper contractCHOPPY COPPERMoney manager net positioning on the CME copper contract has been flipping between long and short in recent weeks as LME copper chops around in a $8,140-8,870 range. China's recovery has disappointed copper bulls and funds shifted to the short side in May, coinciding with LME copper hitting the lower end of its trading range. Both volumes and open interest have perked up this year, but the driver appears to have been the China reopening story rather than the longer-term green energy narrative.
Persons: Conor Humphries Organizations: Citi, London Metal Exchange, CME, Traders, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China
LONDON/BEIJING, July 13 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) is looking to expand its commodities warehousing network outside China, and is examining systems and regulations in the sector overseas, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. China, the world's largest consumer and producer of industrial metals such as copper, wants domestic players to be able to exert more influence over prices, the sources said. To achieve that, two of the sources said, it launched an international copper futures contract in November 2020 on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE). KEY DIFFERENCESSources say there are a couple of major differences between the way warehousing works in China and the rest of the world. Outside China, metal is insured by its owner and the warehouse company is typically only liable if it was proved negligent.
Persons: ShFE, Pratima Desai, Veronica Brown, Jan Harvey Organizations: LONDON, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, bourse, London Metal Exchange, Shanghai International Energy Exchange, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, South East, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, United States, Europe, Asia, The London, LME, Singapore, Thailand, South East Asia
Metal has been arriving almost daily in response to a sharp squeeze across the front part of the LME tin curve. LME and ShFE tin stocksLME SQUEEZE, BUT NO PHYSICAL TIGHTNESSThe tightness on the LME tin contract does not seem to have reflected any shortage of tin in the physical market. The LME squeeze appears to have been more a clash of positioning in what can at times be a relatively illiquid market. Fund positioning on the LME tin contractSUPPLY DISRUPTION LOOMSWhile tin supply has recovered from early-year disruption in Indonesia and Peru, a new threat is now looming. From the start of next month, all tin mining will be suspended in the Wa region of Myanmar.
Persons: It's, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, U.S, Fastmarkets, Fund, United Wa State Army, International Tin Association, Yinman, Yunnan Tin Company, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Myanmar, Malaysia's Port Klang, Singapore, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Italian, Genoa, Trieste, Spanish, Bilbao, Baltimore, U.S, Midwest, COVID, Indonesia, Peru, Wa, Guangxi, Mongolia, Yunnan, China
LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - There's a renewed scramble for copper sitting in London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. Headline LME copper stocks have slid from 100,100 tonnes to 77,050 over the last three weeks despite almost 30,000 tonnes of arrivals. The drain on LME copper stocks is puzzling given weakening manufacturing activity in both Europe and the United States. It wouldn't be the first time that the LME stocks signal has been refracted, and the lower the stocks, the easier it is to bend the light. The Shanghai exchange has experienced tightness across the front part of the curve since March, with time-spreads now also the widest since November.
Persons: Boliden's, Copper, Jan Harvey Organizations: London Metal Exchange, LME, U.S ., CME, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai Futures, ShFE's, International Energy Exchange, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, U.S, London, ShFE, INE, Shanghai, China, Asia
Western lead buyers remain reliant on China's exports to smooth out the global supply chain. WESTERN MARKET STILL TIGHTChinese inflows have helped nudge LME stocks higher. U.S. buyers are paying up to 20 cents/lb ($440 per tonne) over the LME cash price to secure spot metal, according to Fastmarkets. Europe, however, should fare better this year thanks to the restart of the Stolberg lead smelter in Germany. The difference between the pace of production and usage recovery explains the narrowing global supply gap this year.
China's refined copper imports and exportsIMPORT SLUMPChina imported 408,174 tonnes of copper in March, down by 19% year-on-year and the lowest monthly intake since October. The preliminary customs report aggregates arrivals of refined metal, anode, alloy and semi-manufactured products. The country also imported 1.8 million tonnes of recyclable materials, the largest amount since 2018, and a record 25.3 million tonnes of mined concentrates. National refined copper output rose by 11% year-on-year in January-February, according to the country's official statistics body. So far this year it seems to have lost its appetite for more refined copper.
But it serves to highlight the importance of one of the most inaccessible parts of southeast Asia to the global tin supply chain. Imports from Myanmar grew from 30,000 tonnes in 2012 to 89,000 tonnes in 2013 and mushroomed to almost 500,000 tonnes in 2016. CHINESE DEPENDENCEThe Myanmar tin boom occurred at the right time for China's tin smelters, many of which were struggling to bring on new mining capacity as Beijing steadily tightened environmental controls on the mining sector. However, the threat alone underscores the fragility of tin supply at a time when Indonesia, the largest exporter of the metal in refined form, is mulling an export ban to stimulate the build-out of downstream processing capacity. This is probably not going to be the last time tin gets spooked by unexpected news from Myanmar.
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - A year on from the nickel crisis the London Metal Exchange (LME) is still struggling to regain trading momentum. Volumes dropped sharply after the controversial decision to suspend nickel trading and cancel trades. In this subdued metals trading landscape there are currently two unlikely star performers: London lead and Shanghai tin. The Shanghai nickel contract took a big collateral hit from the LME's crisis and volumes remain depressed, down by half year-on-year in the first quarter. ShFE volumes year-on-year change in Q1 2023LEAD GETS INDEX BOOSTERThe two metallic stand-outs in terms of first-quarter trading activity were LME lead and ShFE tin.
Soldering demand from the electronics sector remains weak and investors in London and Shanghai continue to play the market from the short side. Surging purchases of electronic goods during lockdown were followed by sharply reduced spending as many Western consumers were hit by a cost-of-living squeeze. LME positioning reports show both investment funds and other financial players are currently net short of the London tin contract after the early-year rally went into reverse. LME tin price, stocks and cash-3s spreadSHANGHAI STOCKS UP, LONDON STOCKS DOWNReasons to be negative are more obvious in China. ShFE registered tin stocks have risen by 60% to 8,745 tonnes since the start of January.
LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - Funds have dumped their bets on higher copper prices as the turbulence triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to roil financial markets. The investment community has turned net short of CME copper for the first time in five months, while funds have cut their long exposure on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Investors' negativity towards Doctor Copper contrasts with the bullish headlines generated by the FT Commodities Global Summit. Investment funds bought into copper in January, the net long position expanding from 11,830 to 32,397 contracts at the end of the month. Bulls such as Trafigura and Goldman Sachs contend it's a very thin inventory cushion if China rediscovers its copper mojo.
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