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☆ Cricket-crazy fans set to add a kicker to India's economy as world cup begins
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Ira Dugal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The cricket frenzy set to hit India as the International Cricket Council's World Cup begins in a nation of cricket-crazy fans is expected to give a short boost to the country's economy as consumers splurge to enjoy their favorite sport. "The World Cup has the potential to boost India’s GDP, more so because it coincides with the festive season," Sabnavis said. India last hosted the world cup in 2011, when 1.2 million people attended matches, according to data from brokerage house Jefferies. "On India match days, fares have shot up on average by150% for select hotels and 80% for select flights compared with the prior week," said Jefferies in a note this week. "We expect companies to run world-cup specific promotions on match days to tap this consumption boost."

Persons: Narendra Modi, Sachin Tendulkar, Amit Dave, Madan Sabnavis, Sabnavis, Jefferies, Rajesh Magow, Baroda's Sabnavis, Ira Dugal, Lincoln Organizations: Cricket, ICC Cricket, New Zealand, Narendra, Rights, International Cricket, Bank of Baroda, Hospitality, Reuters Graphics Online, homestays, Baroda's, Thomson Locations: England, New, Ahmedabad, India, Rights MUMBAI, Western India, Pakistan

☆ India’s economy grows at fastest pace in a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

India’s economy grew at its quickest pace in a year in the April-June quarter, buoyed by strong services activity and robust demand, but a drier than normal monsoon season could restrain future growth. India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran maintained his 6.5% growth forecast for the full year. Thamashi De Silva at Capital Economics said India’s GDP data was strong despite policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of India. Food prices climbIndia’s retail inflation in July rose to its highest in 15 months as vegetable and cereals prices skyrocketed. “High food inflation for a prolonged period could weigh on consumption growth,” said Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings.

Persons: Anantha Nageswaran, ” Nageswaran, Thamashi De Silva, ”, Madan Sabnavis, “, Suvodeep Rakshit, Nageswaran, Rajani Sinha Organizations: Gross, Capital Economics, Reserve Bank of India, Bank of Baroda Locations: India

Sky-high food inflation after erratic monsoon rains damaged crops and disrupted supply chains. Food inflation for July hit a staggering 11.5%, far more than 4.6% in June and marking a three-year high. Even when customers do purchase fashion items, they buy far fewer than they once would have, some of the managers also said. The downturn in fashion spending has also been accompanied by a slide in spending at restaurant chains like Domino's. In some encouraging signs, tomato prices have eased off peaks and India's central bank chief last week said vegetable prices, which have begun to soften, will decline from September.

Persons: Zink London, Skechers, Kaushik Das, Madan Sabnavis, Anjali Mohanty, Tanvi Mehta, Riddhima, Dhwani Pandya, Jatindra, Saurabh Sharma, Aditya Kalra, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: NEW, Euromonitor, Reuters, Skechers USA, Deutsche Bank, Retail, Bank of Baroda, Dhwani, Thomson Locations: NEW DELHI, MUMBAI, New Delhi, Zink London, Mumbai, Bhubaneswar, Chennai, Lucknow

☆ India's WPI falls for first time in 3 years in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies April WPI falls 0.92% on year vs 1.34% rise in MarchApril food WPI up 0.17% vs 2.32% in MarchWPI easing for the last 11 monthsNEW DELHI, May 15 (Reuters) - India's annual wholesale price index (WPI) fell for the first time in nearly three years in April, as prices softened across the board. WPI (INWPI=ECI) fell by 0.92% from the same month a year earlier, having risen 1.34% in March. "High base effect and falling commodity prices will lend downward pressure on WPI inflation this year," said Madan Sabnavis, an economist at Bank of Baroda. WPI has been easing for the last 11 months from the 20-year highs of 16.63% recorded in May 2022. Data released on Friday showed India's annual retail inflation eased to an 18-month low in April, staying well below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper tolerance limit for the second consecutive month.

Summary Oct-Dec GDP at 4.4% vs 4.6% Reuters forecastOct-Dec manufacturing sector down 1.1%Govt maintains 7% growth for 2022/23Economists see slowing consumer demand, possible rate hikeFeb 27 (Reuters) - India's economic growth slowed further in the December quarter as pent up demand eased and weakness in the manufacturing sector continued. Asia's third largest economy recorded year-on-year growth of 4.4% in October-December, down from 6.3% in July-September, data released by the government on Tuesday showed. The sharp fall in the year-on-year growth rate is also partly due to a fading of pandemic-induced base effects and revision to last year's growth, economists said. "We are likely to hit the 7% GDP growth target for the year," said India's chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran at a press briefing. Government spending declined 0.8% year-on-year in the December quarter compared to revised 4.1% contraction in the previous quarter.

India's annual retail inflation rate (INCPIY=ECI) rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, government data showed on Monday. January's retail inflation was above the Reserve Bank of India's upper targeted limit of 6% for the first time since October and much higher than the 5.9% estimate, according to a Reuters poll of 44 analysts. Food price inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket, rose to 5.94% in January from 4.19% in December. STICKY CORE INFLATIONIndia's core inflation in January was nearly flat at 6.09% to 6.10% from last month, according to two economists. "We expect core inflation to remain elevated in Feb-March given the ongoing pass-through of higher input costs by producers," said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.

☆ India's December wholesale inflation eases to nearly a 2-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, Jan 16 (Reuters) - India's annual wholesale price inflation (WPI) (INWPI=ECI)eased to its lowest levels in nearly two years, helped by a sharp fall in vegetable prices. Government data on Monday showed WPI inflation for December was 4.95% year-on-year, lower than the Reuters forecast of 5.60% and 5.85% recorded in the previous monthFood index rose 0.65% in December, with prices of vegetables falling nearly 36% year-on-year. In November, the food index rose 2.17%. "Low manufacturing inflation is a reflection of cooling global commodity prices. December WPI inflation was lowest since February 2021, according to Refinitiv data.

☆ Analysis: Fall in India nominal GDP growth in FY24 to challenge fiscal math
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Ira Dugal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

At least four leading economists expect nominal GDP growth to come in between 8% and 11% as inflation slows and real GDP growth eases from an estimated 7% this year, when pandemic-related distortions and pent-up demand pushed up growth rates. Das said he expects nominal GDP growth of 8%-9% in FY24, with inflation and real GDP growth seen declining. A growth of 8-9% would bring that number close to the 7.6% nominal growth seen in 2019/20, before the Covid crisis hit. State Bank of India and rating agency ICRA estimate the nominal GDP growth at around 10% for next financial year. "Higher-than-budgeted nominal GDP growth,(will help) to keep fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP at 6.4%, with downside risks," it said.

The government uses the estimates as a basis for its growth and fiscal projections for the next budget due on Feb. 1. Since September, economists have been cutting their 2022/23 growth projections to around 7% due to slowing exports and risks of high inflation crimping purchasing power. India's nominal growth, which includes inflation, is projected to be at 15.4% for 2022/23, up from an earlier 11.1% estimate. "The nominal GDP growth is higher, implying that the government's fiscal deficit target will be achieved," said Sabnavis. "Buoyant albeit mixed domestic consumption should help to stave off some of the pain arising from weak exports during this period," Aditi Nayar, economist at ICRA.

☆ India's c.bank set to raise rates; outlook on growth, inflation in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe central bank's outlook, which will accompany the rates decision, will be an important pointer to future policy moves, economists said. Global crude oil prices have been falling in recent months but has yet to be reflected in domestic prices. Sabnavis, who does not see the RBI reducing its inflation forecast, pointed out that though global oil prices have come down, the government has not relaxed duties or taxes. "Hence, the consumer is still paying the same price and has not derived any benefit from declining oil prices." Lower oil prices may also be countered by higher than expected food prices.

NEW DELHI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - India posted annual economic growth of 6.3% in its July-September quarter, less than half the 13.5% growth in the previous three months as distortions caused by COVID-19 lockdowns faded in Asia's third-largest economy. Economists warned, however, that growth momentum may ease in the December quarter due to higher interest rates and slowing exports. "Even as domestic growth drivers on services side continue to remain robust, weakening global demand amid tightening financial conditions remains the key risk for growth outlook for India," said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital. Slowing global growth has also started to hurt exports, which fell 17% over a year ago in October. "Services on the supply side and investments in the demand side would continue to be the main drivers of growth," said Sujan Hazra, chief economist at Anand Rathi.

☆ India's Oct retail inflation eases, spurs smaller rate hike views
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Manoj Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The annual retail inflation was 7.41% in September. Food prices, which account for nearly 40% of the CPI basket, rose 7.01% in October, compared with 8.60% in September. Month-on-month retail inflation rose 0.80% in October, compared with the previous month, while retail food inflation rose 1.08% — reflecting inflationary pressures in the economy. Last week, ratings agency Moody's revised down India's GDP growth forecast to 7% in 2022, from earlier estimate of 7.7%, and to 4.8% in 2023. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core inflation rose 5.9% to 6.3% last month, according to three economists' estimates, compared to 6.07% to 6.1% in September.

☆ India cenbank's 2013 playbook to rebuild FX reserves unlikely to work-analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Swati Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterTo defend the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India has dipped into its forex reserves. "It would be important to rebuild FX reserves for sure. Reuters GraphicsUNPROFITABLE SPREADSBack in 2013, the RBI had offered to swap the U.S. dollars banks had raised via foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits or foreign currency funding for rupees at concessional rates. And while reserves at current levels are adequate to cover more than eight months of imports, analysts say a sustained depletion could cause some concern. Bank of Baroda's Sabnavis suggested floating sovereign bonds, like the Resurgent India bonds (RIBs) India Millennium Deposit bonds (IMDs) in the past, to help boost forex reserves.

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