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☆ Canada port strike may add to inflation concerns ahead of rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] A view shows placards as longshoremen with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada (ILWU) strike outside the Port of Vancouver's Neptune Bulk Terminals in North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada July 5, 2023. Some 7,500 dock workers went on strike on Saturday for higher wages, upending operations at two of Canada's three busiest ports, the Port of Vancouver and Port of Prince Rupert. Money markets expect the central bank to tighten further, possibly as soon as at a policy decision next Wednesday. The Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CM&E) industry body said the strike is disrupting C$500 million in trade every day. ($1 = 1.3360 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Steve Scherer and Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Port of Prince Rupert, Andrew Grantham, Seamus O'Regan, It's, Robert Kavcic, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Josie Kao Organizations: Warehouse Union, REUTERS, TORONTO, Bank of Canada, BoC, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of, Reuters, Twitter, Canadian Manufacturers, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: of, North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Port of Vancouver, Port of, Bank of Canada

☆ Motor vehicles, building materials lift US retail sales in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and building materials, which could help to stave off a dreaded recession in the near term. Retail sales increased 0.3% last month after rising 0.4% in April, the Commerce Department said. SLOWER MOMENTUMExcluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales gained 0.2% last month. Data for April was revised slightly lower to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of the previously reported 0.7%. With price pressures easing in May, economists estimated that core retail sales increased 0.2% after adjusting for inflation.

Persons: ”, Robert Kavcic, Mike Graziano, Ben Ayers, Unadjusted, Conrad DeQuadros, Tim Quinlan Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wednesday, BMO Capital Markets, Commerce Department, Reuters, Saks Fifth, REUTERS, RSM, Consumers, Nationwide, Labor Department, Treasury, Atlanta Fed, Writers Guild of America, Brean, Manufacturing, Federal Locations: Minnesota, U.S, Toronto, New York City, Columbus , Ohio, Texas, California, Writers Guild of America . Georgia, Florida , Illinois , Indiana , Connecticut, New York, Philadelphia, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ US retail sales rise; weekly jobless claims steady at higher levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Food services and drinking places are the only services category in the retail sales report. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, rose 0.4%. UNDERLYING STRENGTHExcluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales gained 0.2% last month. Data for April was revised slightly lower to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of the previously reported 0.7%.

Persons: Robert Kavcic, Jerome Powell, Unadjusted, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Saks Fifth, REUTERS, Commerce Department, Reuters, BMO Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Atlanta Fed, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, Minnesota, Texas, California , Georgia, Florida , Illinois, Indiana, New York

☆ TSX tumbles after hotter-than-expected inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A report by Statistics Canada showed that April annual consumer inflation had surprisingly ticked up, fueled by higher rental and mortgage interest costs. "Underlying core inflation is settling in around 4%, which is clearly still too high for the BoC's comfort." ET (14:14 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was down 235.32 points, or 1.15%, at 20,304.65. The materials sector (.GSPTTMT) tumbled 1.4% and was the biggest drag on the TSX, tracking weak base- and precious-metal prices. Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Vansh Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja DesaiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canada housing market upturn could delay shift to BoC rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market's upturn comes after the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hiking campaign last month, leaving the benchmark rate at a 15-year high of 4.50% since January. A rebound in the housing market could boost activity and contribute directly to price pressures. "The Bank of Canada at the end of the day is probably not going to be too thrilled if the housing market really starts to ramp up," said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. In addition, variable-rate borrowers have been sheltered from higher interest rates after lenders temporarily extended the period over which their debt is amortized, keeping their payments the same. But there are also tailwinds to support a recovery, including supply shortfalls, record immigration and labor market strength, analysts said.

☆ Canadian housing starts slow as BoC rate hikes weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TORONTO, April 19 (Reuters) - Canadian housing starts fell more than expected in March, contributing to a slower trend in recent months that follows a rapid increase in borrowing costs, data from the national housing agency showed on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of housing starts fell 11% to 213,865 units from a revised 240,927 units in February, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said. "The SAAR of housing starts and the trend appear to be returning to pre-pandemic levels," Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist, said in a statement. The Bank of Canada has lifted its benchmark interest rate to a 15-year high of 4.50% to tackle inflation. For the first quarter, starts averaged 223,000, the weakest quarter since the depth of the COVID-19 pandemic in early-2020, Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

October growth slowed compared with September's 0.2% gain, which was an upward revision from a previously reported 0.1% increase, Statistics Canada said. "The real question will be how things shake out during the first half of next year, when aggressive Bank of Canada rate hikes start to more fully work their way through the system," Kavcic said. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November, but was slightly higher than had been expected because of broad-based price pressures, according to data from earlier this week, leaving the door open for another rate increase in January. The bank has said it will be more data-dependent in setting the policy rate. November's preliminary estimate showing a 0.1% monthly increase in GDP was driven by gains in utilities and wholesale trade, Statscan said.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. (Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlook: )That was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. “In more ‘normal’ times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlookThat was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. "In more 'normal' times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ High interest rates bring winter gloom to Canada's housing market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Julie Gordon | Megan Rowling | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A for sale sign is displayed outside a home in Toronto, Ontario in Toronto, Ontario, Canada December 13, 2021. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File PhotoOTTAWA, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Canada's housing market has gone cold, with buyers sidelined by soaring borrowing costs and sellers holding off listing in hopes of a spring rally, while higher interest rates mean prices need to fall more before any rebound materializes, experts say. "We do have quite a bit of fundamental demand still out there ... but the market just can't clear at current prices because of where interest rates have gone," said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Variable rate mortgages - home loans in which the interest rate fluctuates based on market conditions - have more than tripled since March, with strict stress tests making qualification even tougher. "If investors aren't interested in buying condos, the whole market starts to slow down," he said.

☆ VIEW Canada cuts 2023 GDP forecast but says economy to avoid recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Thursday unveiled an economic update, slashing 2023 real GDP forecast to 0.7%, but said the economy would avoid a recession, while announcing C$11.3 billion ($8.2 billion) in new spending this fiscal year and next. The so-called Fall Economic Statement also proposes a refundable tax credits for clean technologies, a 2% tax on share buybacks, among others. STORIES: read more read moreLINK:https://budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2022/report-rapport/FES-EEA-2022-en.pdfCOMMENTSRANDALL BARTLETT, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF CANADIAN ECONOMICS AT DESJARDINS"As expected - big windfall to revenues coming from higher inflation and a stronger economy, tighter labour market." We know that once you add in provinces we're up closer to C$23 billion (in affordability measures)." Reporting by Fergal Smith, Ismail Shakil Editing by Denny ThomasOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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