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But the $290 billion outlay comes without a parallel plan to prepare Yonaguni for a possible humanitarian crisis that residents like Sakihara say could quickly overwhelm their shores. Tokyo, they said, has no plan to deal with them, and locals' pleas for help have gone unanswered. A spokesperson for Japan's Cabinet Secretariat said that "if large numbers of refugees came to Japan, relevant government departments would work together to respond". Even if he had a refugee plan, Kishida would still face an obstacle: his contentious relationship with the Okinawa government that administers Yonaguni. NOT ENOUGH TO SHAREBack in Yonaguni, resident Satoshi Nagahama, 33, was surprised to learn the government had no humanitarian plan for refugees.

Persons: Sonkichi Sakihara, chancing, Kenichi Itokazu, Itokazu, Hirokazu Matsuno, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Lai Ching, Matsuno, Fumio Kishida, Kevin Maher, Maher, Yoshihide Yoshida, Japan's, shouldn't, Kishida, Denny Tamaki, it's, Hironobu, Satoshi Nagahama, Sakihara, Koji Sugama, Tim Kelly, Kaori Kaneko, Yukiko Toyoda, Ben Blanchard, Kentaro Sugiyama, David Crawshaw Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, U.S, Japan Coast Guard, Migration Policy Institute, Nations, NMV Consulting, State Department, Defense Forces, it's, University's Research, of Disaster Management, Thomson Locations: YONAGUNI, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, China, Beijing, Tokyo, Yonaguni, Taipei, Myanmar, Europe, East, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Washington, East Asia, Okinawa

☆ Central bank blunders undermine tough rate talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Comments by central bankers underline their desire to keep interest rates high until price growth quiesces. Policymakers’ recent mistakes mean they will struggle to convince investors their tough talk is real. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell says his fellow policymakers are “not thinking about rate cuts at all”. In May, after another U.S. regional bank failure, markets concluded that the Fed’s rate hike at the beginning of that month would be its last. Respected central bankers might be able to convince markets that these numbers don’t portend imminent rate cuts.

Persons: Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Powell, backtrack, –, Lagarde, Treasuries, BoE, Bailey, Ben Bernanke, Jacob Frenkel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, titans, Deutsche Bank, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, LSEG, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, ECB, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, European, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Bailey, United States, Ukraine, Central

☆ Imagine a better climate pact than COP
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

It’s possible to imagine an alternative, better way to fight climate change. The snag is that China or the United States – which were responsible for 25% and 11% of greenhouse gases, respectively, in 2021 – would have to take the lead. All countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times and to aim for 1.5 degrees. That’s the thinking behind the Just Energy Transition Partnerships that the United States and its allies have cut with Indonesia, Vietnam and South Africa. For example, Donald Trump, who as president pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, may return to the White House after next year’s elections.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, of, UN, United, Rio Earth Summit, European, Reuters Graphics Reuters, China, African, Initiative, World Bank, Thomson Locations: Nations, Dubai, China, United States, Paris, U.S, Washington, Beijing, European Union, Japan, Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom, Russia, Russian, Xi Jinping . Washington, India, Brazil, Indonesia, African Union, Vietnam, South Africa

Yet labour markets are softening, the euro zone faces recession and China's property sector is in crisis. Here's what some closely-watched market indicators say about global recession risks:1/ AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM? Britain's economy avoided the start of a recession in the third quarter but still failed to grow. Economists broadly expect the global economy to slow next year but avoid a recession. If supply shocks resulting from the Israel-Hamas war become severe enough to push Brent crude to $150, a level it has never breached, a "mild and fleeting" global recession could result, Oxford Economics reckons.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Guy Miller, COVID, Zurich Insurance's Miller, Torsten Slok, Austria's, David Katimbo, We've, Brent, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Naomi Rovnick, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Zurich Insurance, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Apollo Global Management, P, Sweden's SBB, HK, Bank of England, Business insolvencies, EdenTree Investment Management, Oxford Economics reckons, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, China, Zurich, England, Wales, Europe, Israel

☆ Tech giants lead surge in global mega-caps as inflation eases
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Apple Inc's (AAPL.O) market value jumped 11.2% to $2.95 trillion over the past month, while Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) saw a 12.1% increase in its market cap, reaching $2.8 trillion. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsNvidia Corp's (NVDA.O) market cap soared 14.7% to $1.15 trillion, following its announcement of a 206% year-over-year revenue increase to $18.1 billion in the third quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) saw its market cap increase by 12.2% to $451 billion by the end of November. In other sectors, Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) market value rose nearly 20% to $763.2 billion last month, following a price hike for its Model 3 and Y vehicles in China. Saudi Arabian Oil Co (2222.SE) and Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) saw market caps fall by 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively.

Persons: Mike Segar, Tesla, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Kim Coghill Organizations: Apple Inc, Apple, REUTERS, Microsoft Corp, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Nvidia, JPMorgan Chase &, Rho, Saudi Arabian Oil Co, Exxon Mobil Corp, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York, U.S, China, Saudi, Bengaluru

☆ Bank of England drags Bagehot into the shadows
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

That is no longer tenable, in part because of reforms to bank regulation that shifted activity from traditional lenders to financial market players. These days, the institutions in need of urgent liquidity are just as likely to be pension funds, insurers or hedge funds. The British central bank’s initial ideas make sense, but only solve part of the problem. The central bank can short-circuit the panic by opening the credit taps. Central banks are only just starting to grapple with what it means to be a lender of last resort in that context.

Persons: Walter Bagehot’s, Andrew Hauser, BoE, WALTER, Gurney, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Pensions, . Treasury, Citadel, Millennium Management, City of, U.S . Federal, Gurney & Company, Victorian, Thomson Locations: British, City, City of London, Basel, Overend, Lombard

☆ Amazon’s space dreams deserve to be grounded
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Founder, Chairman, CEO and President of Amazon Jeff Bezos unveils his space company Blue Origin's space exploration lunar lander rocket called Blue Moon during an unveiling event in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2019. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne - RC153E11B8F0 Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Amazon.com’s (AMZN.O) Project Kuiper is a misguided technological marvel. A recent U.S. government report warned that space junk from currently planned networks could start regularly falling back to Earth by 2035. Facing an uncertain payoff and the possibility that its efforts will burn up on reentry, Amazon’s best move is bowing out of a futile space race. The $1.3 trillion technology company plans to eventually launch over 3,200 satellites into low-earth orbit to provide high-speed internet globally.

Persons: Amazon Jeff Bezos, Clodagh, Jeff Bezos, SpaceX’s, Andy Jassy, Bill Gates, SpaceX honcho Elon Musk, OneWeb, Jonathan Guilford, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Amazon, REUTERS, Reuters, SpaceX, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Kuiper, Eutelsat Communications, Origin, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Bezos, China

☆ Goldilocks meets Santa as global stocks power to best month in three years
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MSCI's world stock index (.MIWO00000PUS) is set to close the month up around 9%, its best performance since November 2020, when markets cheered the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines. Global bond prices have soared, with an ICE BofA index of global investment-grade bonds in major markets set to return 3.4% in November, the best month on record going back to 1997. Global growth stocks in high-tech sectors are up 11% (.dMIWO0000GNUS) while value stocks, which are mainly in cyclical industries and offer high dividends, have gained 6.5% (.dMIWO0000VNUS). And a cloudier outlook for stocks suggests a divergence could open up between again between stocks and bonds. The broader global index is set to return 1.6% for the year.

Persons: Joshua Roberts, That's, bode, Altaf Kassam, Wall, We've, Guy Miller, Joost Van Leenders, Van Lanschot Kempen, Van Leenders, Kassam, Naomi Rovnick, Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, Christina Fincher Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, State Street Global Advisors, Traders, Fed, Insurance Group, Equity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, COVID, U.S

☆ Asia’s tech giants lean toward desperate deals
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew arrives for a dinner, on the eve of the Paris Peace Forum at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, November 9, 2023. TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew was feted in Indonesia where it has 125 million monthly active users when he pledged in June to invest billions of dollars in the region. But the global giant failed to anticipate regulatory hurdles in its biggest market for online shopping. TikTok’s viral video app would provide Tokopedia with a powerful new growth avenue for its online shopping and payments business. Yet as tech companies from the People’s Republic to Indonesia pull out all the stops to lift growth amid waning investor support, desperate new alliances are bound to emerge.

Persons: Shou Zi Chew, Gonzalo Fuentes, TikTok, China’s, GoTo, Patrick Walujo, Indonesia’s GoTo, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Paris Peace, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Companies, Google, Temasek, Bain &, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Tokopedia, HK, Global Digital, Djarum, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, Rights SINGAPORE, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Jakarta, Tokopedia, Lazada, Singapore, Indonesian, Thailand, People’s Republic, China

☆ Private-asset binge exposes insurance to new risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The concept is not new: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) has used its insurance premiums to help fund everything from railways to cowboy-boot makers. The prospect of insurance companies buying risky loans or private equity investments has raised eyebrows. Many private credit assets, for example, rely on so-called private letter ratings based on confidential data. Given the private nature of private credit, it’s hard to see from the outside how big these risks are, or where they lurk. Besides, even if the share of life insurance assets that are mis-rated or undercapitalized is tiny, smaller insurers could carry more concentrated risk.

Persons: Blackstone, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, Fitch, Kroll, Egan, Jones, DBRS Morningstar, Banks, SVB, Jonathan Guilford, Neil Unmack, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Apollo Global Management, KKR, Global Atlantic, Investments, National Association of Insurance, England’s Everton FC, Rivals, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Athene, P Global, Insurance, SVB, Thomson Locations: Global, Delaware , New York, Iowa, New York, London

☆ Rakuten Group's losses, debt burden and financing efforts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Anton Bridge | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Here are some details about its deeply troubled mobile business, the group's operating losses, debt burden and its efforts to shore up its finances. It had 351 billion yen ($2.4 billion) in annual sales last year and accounts for 18% of Rakuten's overall revenue. Rakuten Group currently has total debt of more than 1.5 trillion yen, of which 800 billion yen is due to be redeemed by the end of 2025. Nov 2022 - sells 19.99% of Rakuten Securities to Mizuho Securities for 80 billion yen. Nov 2023 - sells a further 29% of Rakuten Securities to Mizuho Securities for 87 billion yen.

Persons: Miho Uranaka, Rakuten, Hiroshi, Mickey, Mikitani, Anton Bridge, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Rakuten, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Japan Post Holdings, HK, Walmart, Rakuten Securities, Mizuho Securities, Rakuten Bank, Thomson Locations: Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan, Japanese

As technology titans jockey to back hot new startups, they are extracting explicit or implicit promises of revenue in return. loadingMicrosoft’s injection of $10 billion into OpenAI in January helped kick off the craze. As part of their deal, the ChatGPT operator agreed to exclusively use its new investor’s cloud computing services. Much of the invested capital should be returned relatively quickly as AI firms buy back-end services. Nvidia (NVDA.O) has at least 80% and as much as 95% of the AI market, according to estimates by analysts.

Persons: Sam Altman, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, Optimists, cynics, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Microsoft, Financial Times, Apple, Nasdaq, Big Tech, OpenAI, Wall Street, Google, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cisco Systems, Lucent Technologies, Nortel Technologies, Company, Global, Telecom, Nortel, Network, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: OpenAI, Silicon Valley

☆ ADNOC German oil deal has bad timing, good logic
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Karen Kwok | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the state-owned Abu Dhabi oil giant he runs, is considering a bid for BASF-owned (BASFn.DE) Wintershall Dea, at a potential $11 billion valuation. The UAE firm is already in talks to buy chemical company Covestro (1COV.DE), Wintershall’s German compatriot, for $12 billion. Abu Dhabi's oil riches mean the UAE firm has the wherewithal to pay 5.5 billion euros for BASF’s Wintershall stake. Any deal could value Wintershall Dea at more than 10 billion euros ($11 billion), Bloomberg reported. BASF holds a 72.7% stake in Wintershall Dea.

Persons: Toru Hanai, Wintershall, Jaber, It’s, Austria’s, Abu, LetterOne, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, BASF, The, Shell, Russian, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Abu, National Oil Company, Bloomberg, Wintershall Dea . Investment, Thomson Locations: Gastech, Chiba, Japan, Abu Dhabi, The UAE, Germany, Norway, UAE, Europe, United Kingdom, Abu, Russia, Wintershall Dea

☆ Exclusive: European fund giant Amundi dips toe back into Turkey's lira
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A logo of Amundi is seen outside the company headquarters in Paris, France, February 3, 2023. "We have started to cover our underweight in Turkish lira a few weeks ago," Strigo told Reuters, referring to the process of taking a more positive view on the currency. Amundi, while the first major fund to formally declare its shift, is not alone in testing the waters, according to other foreign investors and bankers. "It is probably the easiest way for now," Strigo said about the use of FX forwards to express that balance. With the bank having lifted rates to 40% from 8.5% since June, Amundi thinks another hike next month could finish the job.

Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Sergei Strigo, Amundi's, Strigo, Tayyip Erdogan, Amundi, Goldman Sachs, Erdogan, sceptics, Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan, Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker, Jonathan Spicer, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Investment, JPMorgan, FX, Graphics, Central Bank Governor, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, Turkey, Turkish, New York, London, Istanbul

☆ Slowing China still leads the race for commodities
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Yawen Chen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

"When it comes to copper, the thinking usually goes that copper equals property, property equals China," said one commodities trader. "And because China property is down, copper must be down too." That’s why China's copper demand will still rise by 4 million tonnes from the 2020 level to around 18 million tonnes per year in 2030, according to estimates by commodity trading group Trafigura. And China's copper demand has grown by 8% this year, faster than the 5% Xi is targeting for overall GDP growth. China's annual aluminium demand rose by 18 million tonnes from 2010 to 2020 and is forecast to grow by another 13 million tonnes to over 50 million tonnes a year in 2030, per Trafigura.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Communist Party’s, Wood Mackenzie, Francesco Guerrera, Katrina Hamlin, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, HK, Communist, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London Metal Exchange, ING, International Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Oxford, HSBC, Democratic, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Washington, Moscow, Taiwan, Shanghai, Republic, United States, Australia, Beijing, Chile, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of Congo

☆ Warner Bros Discovery boss’s payday is toast
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) chief executive will have to more than double the value of the media company if he wants to collect a lavish $200 million compensation package awarded when Discovery agreed to merge with Warner Media in 2021. The news sent shares plunging 19%, the largest one-day drop since Discovery merged with Warner Media. Its current value is over $18 billion when applying Bernstein’s multiple of 8 times EBITDA. At the end of September, the company had net leverage – after deducting $2.4 billion cash – of 4.2 times EBITDA. Shares of Warner Bros Discovery fell 19% on that day.

Persons: David Zaslav, He’s, Harry Potter, Jefferies, Max, “ Barbie ”, Zaslav, David, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam Organizations: Reuters, Warner Bros Discovery, Discovery, Warner Media, HBO, CNN, Food Network, TBS, LSEG, Netflix, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HGTV, Thomson Locations: EBITDA

Toys, games and hobby gear are on track to be less expensive this holiday season for the first time since 2020, while sporting goods prices are down this holiday for the first time since 2018, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)showed. To be sure, prices overall are higher in 2023 despite slowed price growth, with October's consumer price index climbing to 3.2% year-over-year. The figure remained flat on a month-over-month basis, signaling some holiday item prices may be slow to come down. Despite a dip in sporting goods prices, they continue to pace above 2019 levels. Walmart WMT.N said prices of general merchandise - clothing, electronics, furniture - had declined by low to mid-single-digit percentages versus last year, enabling the retailer to cut prices this holiday season.

Persons: Theresa Forsberg, Jill Lizzo, Barbie, Walmart WMT.N, it's, ”, Christina Hennington, Vincent Alban, Jessica Ramirez, Jane Hali, Jeffrey Roach, Macy's, Kevin Simpson, Simpson, Siddharth Cavale, Amina Niasse, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Walmart, Reuters Graphics Reuters, REUTERS, Associates, LPL, Dick's Sporting, Reuters, Wealth, Target, Home Depot, Wayback Machine, Thomson Locations: New Milford , Connecticut, New York's Harlem, Chicago , Illinois, U.S, New York

A child looks at toys in a Target store ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday and traditional Black Friday sales in Chicago, Illinois, U.S. November 21, 2023. Toys, games and hobby gear are on track to be less expensive this holiday season for the first time since 2020, while sporting goods prices are down this holiday for the first time since 2018, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)showed. Walmart WMT.N said prices of general merchandise - clothing, electronics, furniture - had declined by low to mid-single-digit percentages versus last year, enabling the retailer to cut prices this holiday season. Black Friday discounts are 30% to 50% at major retailers and could go deeper later in the season. "You're going to see margin compression and potentially lower sales," said Simpson, whose firm holds shares in Walmart and Home Depot.

Persons: Vincent Alban, Barbie, Walmart WMT.N, it's, ”, Christina Hennington, Jessica Ramirez, Jane Hali, Jeffrey Roach, Kevin Simpson, Simpson, Siddharth Cavale, Amina Niasse, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Walmart, Associates, LPL, Wayback Machine, Dick's Sporting, Reuters, Wealth, Target, Home Depot, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Macy's, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Giving thanks you're not in China stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. A four-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas appeared to be holding shakily on Friday with no major reports of attacks, although both sides were accused of violations. The decline marked yet another investor shrug at reports of further official moves to shore up China's ailing property sector. In Europe, data showed Germany's economy shrank slightly in the third quarter, confirming an initial estimate of a 0.1% fall. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, shrug, didn't, Christian Lindner, Geert Wilders, Luis de Guindos, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Stock, Mainland Properties, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Finance, Britain's Barclays, Central Bank, Bank of Spain, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, Israel, OPEC, United States, Friday's, Beijing, Taiwan, China, Europe, British

☆ The future of interest rates is more surprises
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Observing these oscillating forecasts, a bystander might conclude that nobody knows anything about the future direction of interest rates. The study examined data from 19 countries back to 1870 and found only a tenuous link between the determinants of savings and investment and real interest rates. “No single factor or combination of such factors”, the authors concluded, “can consistently explain the long-term evolution of real interest rates. Indeed, if the trend persisted Schmelzing forecast that “within a generation historically implied real interest rates will have reached negative territory”. Homer and Sylla wryly observe that people assume that the interest rates they encounter are normal and are surprised by what comes next.

Persons: Claudio Borio, “, ”, Paul Schmelzing, Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla, Sylla, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Capital Economics, Bank for International, Austrian, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Financial, Boston College, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Central, U.S . Federal, London, Japan

[1/4] An illegal money changer checks old U.S. dollars at a marketplace in Harare, Zimbabwe, November 26, 2020. The government reintroduced the local currency in 2019, but it rapidly lost value. Zimbabwe's dollarization story is as full of warnings as it is with promise. During the five years before dollarization in 2000, the monthly measure of annualized inflation averaged 33% in Ecuador. "With our local currency we couldn't buy anything, it was very expensive to acquire things, so dollarization ... allowed people to have greater security in their purchases."

Persons: Javier Milei, Milei, Zimbabwe's, Bongiwe Mudau, Dollarization, dollarization, Mudau, Moses Mhlanga, Nestor Cerneaz, Wilson Andrade, Juan Carlos Villota, Guido Puig, Tito Correa, Nyasha, Miguel Lo Bianco, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Karin Strohecker, Rosalba O'Brien Organizations: REUTERS, Philimon, Rights, U.S ., Reuters, International Monetary Fund, hawker, Reuters Graphics Reuters, dollarization, Thomson Locations: Harare, Zimbabwe, Philimon Bulawayo, Rights QUITO, HARARE, BUENOS AIRES, Zimbabwe's, Quito, Ecuador, Argentina, El Salvador, greenbacks, Buenos Aires, Argentine, New York

OPEC and the IEA expect China's oil demand to show growth in 2023 of 7.6% and 12.1%, respectively. OPEC has dismissed fears of that demand growth for oil in China is fading, describing negative sentiment as "overblown" in a recent report. OPEC's forecasts show China accounting for 24.6% of global oil demand growth in the first half of 2024, according to Reuters calculations. Consultancies Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy and Energy Aspects respectively forecast China's first-half 2024 oil demand to grow by 3.7%, 4.0% and 4.4% versus the same period in 2023. Energy Aspects expects first-half diesel demand to be flat from a year earlier.

Persons: Aly, Consultancies Wood Mackenzie, Rystad, Lin Ye, Xia, Andrew Hayley, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, of Petroleum, International Energy Agency, OPEC, Rystad Energy, JET, Reuters Graphics Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: Zhuhai, China, Rights BEIJING, OPEC, Russia, Beijing

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S

☆ Branding’s corporate titans face moment of truth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Now for the first time this century, sales volumes at the big consumer goods manufacturers are falling. In the first nine months of the year, Kraft Heinz said the quantity of its sold items declined by nearly 6 percentage points year-on-year. That’s likely to allow Nestlé, Kraft Heinz and Unilever to see flat or modest increases in 2023 sales, LSEG data shows. Earlier this year, outgoing Kraft Heinz Chief Executive Miguel Patricio said the company lost market share to a branded competitor that spent more. Unilever, Nestlé and Kraft Heinz have all pointed to a slowing of price growth in the coming year.

Persons: Kraft Heinz, Nestlé, ’, Xavier Roger, Kraft, what’s, John Furner, Miguel Patricio, Mars, ”, François, EY, George Hay, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Consumer, Kraft, Unilever, Danone, ’, United Nations, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Nestlé, Kraft Heinz, Target, Reuters Graphics, Obesity, Mondelez, Walmart, “, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, Australia, Norway, Chocolat, London

The minutes will likely include the "superficially hawkish rhetoric" that rates might still move higher, Citi analysts wrote on Sunday in a preview of the release. But "we continue to think that Fed officials are most likely done raising rates this cycle." "Inflation does seem to be settling," Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told Fox Business on Monday. But he also felt it was likely to remain "stubborn, and that makes the case for me for being higher for longer." "What I would be looking for is sustained evidence" of inflation in steady decline, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said last week.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Susan Collins, Collins, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Citi, Fed, Richmond Fed, Fox Business, Boston, Thomson Locations: U.S

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