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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Bianco Research's Jim Bianco and Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzJim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, and Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss the market's response to the October jobs report, how rising yields could impact markets, and more.
Persons: Bianco, Jim Bianco, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Jim Bianco, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, CNBC's Organizations: Bianco Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket over-valuation is no reason to get bearish, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment officer at Piper Sandler, joins CNBC to discuss outlooks on over-valued markets, how he's positioning, and more.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler Organizations: CNBC
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMore rate cuts will help consumers & small businesses, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler chief investment strategist, joins CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss why smaller business and consumers need the benefits from more rate cuts, where he sees rates going from here, and more.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeople aren't worried about inflation anymore, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss markets, economic reports, and the Fed's next moves.
Persons: aren't, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
"In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200, while more extreme forecasts include Jeremy Grantham's estimate in the low 3,000s. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Count John Hussman, Hussman, Hussman's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Grantham's Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, Hussman Investment Trust, New York Stock Exchange, Investor Intelligence
Investors should focus on high-quality stocks, says Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz. High-quality stocks have high profit margins, earnings growth + momentum, and stable balance sheets. High-quality healthcare stocks in the S&P 500 beat the overall index by 22% over the last year. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPiper Sandler's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says investors should be focusing on high-quality stocks.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz ., , Piper, Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Service, Business
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYields will end the year lower than where they are now, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how the strategist is parsing through the earnings results thus far, if there are still hopes for a bond rally, and more.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America
The US economy added just 150,000 jobs, under the expected 180,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, now 0.5% higher than its low earlier this year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/Bullandbearprofits.comSecond, the inverted yield curve is starting to steepen. An inverted yield curve has been an extremely reliable recession indicator over the last several decades. Bullandbearprofits.com"Proven leading indicators show that the unemployment rate is likely to start rising materially soon. Piper SandlerIn addition to the yield curve and employment indicators above, other recession indicators continue to point to a downturn ahead.
Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, Merril Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, bode, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent, Fed, Bank of America, Societe Generale's, Generale, Edwards . Societe Generale Locations: lockstep, Edwards .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets will stay between a soft and hard landing, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss his market outlook, job numbers, and more.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
The hikes scared investors into thinking a recession would be on the way. But today, the labor market remains strong and inflation is under 4%, prompting rosier outlooks about the fate of the US economy. Rate hikes take time to work their way into the economy. But their main adversary going forward is going to be the Fed, with inflation still elevated. The Consumer Price Index is at 3.7% year-over-year, and core inflation, which the Fed watches closely, is even higher at 4.3%.
Persons: Michael Pento, Piper Sandler, Pento, Louis, LEI, Greg Boutle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Jeremy Grantham, Merrill Lynch, Gary Shilling, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Conference, Stock, Robeco, Nasdaq, BNP, Fed
Yields on 10-year Treasury yields have surged well above 4%. With both stock valuations and interest rates high, stock prices could continue to fall. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes surged to 15-year highs this week, surpassing 4.3% for the first time since late 2007. This has put a damper on what was a 20% rally for the S&P 500 from January to the end of July. The median S&P 500 year-end price target among major Wall Street strategists is 4,300, just below the index's current price around 4,370.
Persons: Stocks, Adam Turnquist, Treasurys, It's, John Lynch, they've, Tom Essaye, Lynch, Turnquist, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: Treasury, LPL, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth, Wall Street, Rosenberg Research, RBC, BNP
The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.
Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells
The S&P 500 has rallied 17% year-to-date, but the Treasury yield curve and LEI point to a downturn. For Rosenberg, the difference is that we currently have an inverted yield curve, a recession signal that has preceded every downturn since the 1960s. An inverted yield curve means that rates on short-duration Treasurys rise higher than rates on long-duration Treasurys. The yield curve inverts often during Fed hiking cycles because short-term Treasury rates track closely along with the fed funds rate. The below chart shows the share of consecutive trading days where the yield curve has been inverted.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, , Here's Lacy Hunt, here's Rosenberg, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Federal, Hoisington Investment Management Company, of Labor Statistics
Plus, falling inflation means weaker pricing power, and therefore weaker revenue growth, Kantrowitz said. If you look at long-term earnings growth, we're sitting near record-low levels. Long-term growth expectations, shown in gray, are near all-time lows. The PEG ratio takes into account longer-term future earnings, as opposed to the more present-based price-to-earnings ratio. He added: "For all intents and purposes, the PEG ratio has never been higher in a normalized backdrop."
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, downturns, Albert Edwards, Edwards, I'm Organizations: PMI, Treasury, Generale
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings growth is expected to decline further this year, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss recession concerns hinging on employment data, avoiding cyclical investments, and a sector neutral portfolio model.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler
Stocks are once again in a bull market, with the S&P 500 now up more than 20% since October's lows. Nearly all of the recent rally can also be attributed to the index's top 10 stocks, he said. "During the late-90s tech bubble, over one-third of returns came from these mega-cap stocks," Wool said. "In the recent bull run, by contrast, almost the entire market return was accounted for by just ten companies' performance." A 15% decline would put the S&P 500 at 3,800.
Persons: Stocks, Rayliant's Phillip Wool, Wool, Phillip Wool, Solita, Louis, , Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, it's, Morgan Stanley's Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz Organizations: UBS, LPL Financial, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis The Conference, Wool, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Life Investments, CME Group
Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz says a recession is hurtling toward the US economy. He pointed to stocks falling in lockstep with rising unemployment claims in 2007, 2000, 1990, 1981, 1973, and 1969. Today, investors are again doing a poor job of forecasting rising unemployment claims in the months ahead, Kantrowitz believes. Underpinning Wilson's call is an earnings recession this year that investors aren't pricing in. "We first started talking about the coming earnings recession a year ago and received very strong pushback, just like today.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Michael Kantrowitz doesn't, Piper Sandler, it's, Louis, Greg Boutle, Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Venu Krishna, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson, Albert Edwards Organizations: Energy, Survey, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BNP, Barclays, Conference, Board, National Federal, Independent, of Labor Statistics, Generale's Locations: lockstep
Since October 2022, the S&P 500 is up 17% following a 25% decline as the Fed embarked on its rate-hiking cycle. The median S&P 500 price target for the end of the year is 4,000. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 1.1% over the past year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz and Komal Sri-KumarMichael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler chief investment strategist, and Komal Sri-Kumar, Sri-Kumar Global Strategies president, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the trajectory of the markets over the next six to eight months, why rising unemployment claims would be good for markets and much more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAll the ingredients are there for a hard landing, according to Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzPiper Sandler Chief Strategist Michael Kantrowitz joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the bank sell-off, commercial banks tightening lending standards and the Fed's rate plan.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz on market outlookMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist and head of portfolio strategies at Piper Sandler, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss today's CPI report numbers, forecasts about further drops in earnings expectations, and the consequences from the lag effect of inflation.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P could sink to 3,225 by the end of the year, says Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist and head of portfolio strategies at Piper Sandler, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss today's CPI report numbers, forecasts about further drops in earnings expectations, and the consequences from the lag effect of inflation.
Forward earnings growth is now negative, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson points out. In a February 6 note to clients, Morgan Stanley's Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson reiterated his call that the S&P 500 hasn't seen a bottom yet. Wilson highlights this pattern in the chart below, showing forward EPS growth (yellow line) alongside S&P 500 price action (blue line). "History shows price downside is in front of us, not behind us," the chart's title reads. Morgan StanleyWilson said in December that he sees the S&P 500 bottoming between 3,000-3,300 in the first quarter before recovering to 3,900 later this year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Piper Sandler's Michael KantrowitzMichael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler chief investment strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the companies he thinks investors should buy, the names to avoid and what will happen to companies with poor earnings reports next year.
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