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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS' Paul Donovan on U.S election, the economy and its industry policyPaul Donavan from UBS Global Wealth Management joins Asia Squawk Box to discuss a wide range of issues facing global economy.
Persons: Paul Donovan, Paul Donavan Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Asia
Read previewMost developed countries are set to gain more wealthy people in the next five years — with two big outliers. Some countries, like Taiwan, will gain as many as 50% more millionaires during that time. But the United Kingdom and the Netherlands make "notable exceptions" on this list, per UBS, because both are forecasted to lose millionaires. The UK's three million millionaires put it third among countries with the highest number of millionaires last year, as measured in US dollars, per UBS. The loss continues a trend: The UK lost 16,500 millionaires between 2017 and 2023, per immigration consultancy Henley & Partners.
Persons: , Paul Donovan, Donovan, Andrew Amoils, Amoils Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, Henley & Partners, Russia, BI, Henley, Partners Locations: Taiwan, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Paris, Dubai, Sydney, Italy, Spain, Europe
Up to $9 trillion is expected to be passed along to spouses and partners in the coming years as part of what's being called "the horizontal wealth transfer," according to a new report. Yet because surviving spouses and partners typically get the initial inheritances, and because women typically outlive men, bequests in the coming years will largely go to women, according to the UBS Global Wealth Report. UBS calls it the "horizontal wealth transfer," since the wealth is moving intra-generationally rather than intergenerationally. "Most people have a rather feudal idea of wealth going down through generations," said Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management. According to the report, the largest horizontal wealth transfers will be in the Americas.
Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: what's, Americas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDeflationary forces present in almost every sector in U.S., says UBS Global Wealth's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, and Jared Woodard, head of research committee at Bank of America Securities, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss deflation, macro outlooks, and more.
Persons: UBS Global Wealth's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan, Jared Woodard, CNBC's Organizations: UBS Global, UBS Global Wealth Management, Bank of America Securities Locations: U.S
LONDON — The number of global millionaires is set to keep rising over the next five years — with the U.K. a stark outlier, according to the 2024 Global Wealth Report from UBS. Gains will be led by tech powerhouse Taiwan, where the number of millionaires is set to jump 47% on the back of the booming microchip industry and a rise in immigration by wealthy foreigners. The two hubs in which the most global millionaires are based, the U.S. and mainland China, are set to see their figures rise 16% and 8% respectively. Another country where the number of dollar millionaires is forecast to decline was the Netherlands, which is estimated to see a 4% drop in such wealthy individuals. The report meanwhile sees the number of U.S. dollar millionaires in Russia growing by 21%.
Persons: Paul Donovan, Donovan Organizations: UBS, Taiwan, UBS Global Wealth Management, Russia, Labour Party, Conservative Locations: Turkey, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Japan, U.S, China, France, Italy, London, Dubai, Singapore, Netherlands, Russia
A Debate Cheat Sheet for Business
  + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Andrew Ross Sorkin | Ravi Mattu | Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +3 min
Talking pointsAll eyes will be on CNN at 9 p.m. Eastern, when President Biden and Donald Trump face off in their first debate since 2020. Among the keenest watchers will be executives and investors looking for signs about how the candidates might handle the economy and business in a second term. There will be plenty to scrutinize in the 90-minute, audience-free debate, including what the candidates say and how they say it. What will Biden and Trump say about some of the key issues? In Thursday night’s debate, “markets probably care more about presentation than policy pledges,” Paul Donovan, an economist at UBS, wrote in a client note.
Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, ” David Bahnsen, DealBook, ” Paul Donovan, Elon Musk, There’s, J.D, Vance of, Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio Organizations: CNN, Bahnsen, UBS, Biden, Trump, Times, Gov Locations: Atlanta, Vance of Ohio, North Dakota, Marco Rubio of Florida
These are the kinds of questions used by the University of Michigan to calculate the Consumer Sentiment Index, an economic indicator measuring how people feel about the economy. That survey and others show there is a pervasive sense of disconnect between the overall economic picture and how people feel about the economy. Despite slowing inflation, a healthy labor market with record-low unemployment, and stocks that remain in a bull market, consumer sentiment remains below pre-pandemic levels. "People don't tend to think in terms of inflation—economists do," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. Normal people think in terms of price levels."
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Paul Donovan Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S
The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, , MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, , ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, , ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine
New York CNN —And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions. On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.
Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Donovan, Kazuhiro Nogi, , didn’t, Jerome Powell, , it’s, there’s, Powell, Philipp Carlsson, doesn’t, “ it’s, Carlsson Organizations: New, New York CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management, Getty, National Bureau of Economic Research, don’t, US Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting Locations: New York, Japan, Germany, AFP, Ukraine
Opinion | Inflation Worries and Snickers Bars
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
To the Editor:Re “The Economic Indicator We Need? A Candy Bar,” by Paul Donovan (Opinion guest essay, Jan. 21):Contrary to Mr. Donovan’s claims, I’m not uninformed about inflation. I know the latest year-over-year inflation rate, as well as the latest month-to-month inflation rate. Given these realities, I have every right to be upset with our disingenuous political and corporate leaders who claim that inflation isn’t a concern. And I have every right to be upset with the numerous opinion pieces, including Mr. Donovan’s, that attempt to explain away the ignorance of my good fortune.
Persons: Paul Donovan, Jan, Donovan’s, I’m Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Trump, Biden
The United States has seen a steady decline in the rate of inflation, and yet many American voters are still upset over the cost of daily life. To understand this perception gap, Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, argues, we should consider the cost of a Snickers Bar. In this audio essay, he explains that frequent smaller purchases — like candy bars — shape our experience of the economy. (A full transcript of this audio essay will be available midday on the Times website.)
Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Times Locations: States
The United States has just experienced one of the biggest collapses in consumer inflation in modern history. More than 12 Snickers bars are sold every second in the United States. That makes Snickers bars a very important part of consumer purchases, and so the price of a Snickers bar should be included in the inflation calculation. Yet Snickers bars do not consume a big portion of most families’ annual budget (at least they usually don’t). With $1,500 a consumer could buy a high-end 55-inch television, or almost four Snickers bars a day for a year.
Locations: States, United States
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, measured 2.6% annually in November. So, getting that number down to the Fed’s 2% target should happen in no time, right? That’s because much of the run-up in inflation came from pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and unusual spikes in demand. The reason is that as inflation cools more, the remaining components that work to keep inflation above the Fed’s target are increasingly “sticky,” meaning they’re the least responsive to changes in market conditions. And it’s so far, so good.”That said, though it’s not the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, Thursday’s CPI report showed that the road to 2% could come with more bumps.
Persons: , John Cochrane, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, That’s, Powell, Cochrane, , ” Paul Donovan, ” Powell, I’d, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Hoover Institute, , University of Chicago, CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York, EY
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed has overtightened, says UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest CPI report, the outlook for rate hikes, and more.
Persons: UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan, Steve Liesman Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS Global Wealth Management
Watch CNBC's full interview with UBS's Paul Donovan
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with UBS's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management , joins 'The Exchange' to discuss variable rate mortgages pushing up the CPI, the effort to exclude asset prices in the CPI, and the direction of inflation trending downwards.
Persons: UBS's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, CPI
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOwners equivalent rent is distorting inflation data, says UBS's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management , joins 'The Exchange' to discuss variable rate mortgages pushing up the CPI, the effort to exclude asset prices in the CPI, and the direction of inflation trending downwards.
Persons: UBS's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, CPI
Here’s the deal: The grand total of all the private wealth in the world fell 2.4% to $454.4 trillion, according to the annual Credit Suisse and UBS global wealth report. Meanwhile, global median wealth, a more meaningful indicator of how the typical person is faring, actually rose 3% in 2022. The top 1% of households still hold a staggering 44.5% of all global wealth. “The global economy is experiencing a period of astonishing economic alteration,” wrote Paul Donovan Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, in the report. Another silver lining: According to Credit Suisse projections, global wealth will rise 38% over the next five years, reaching $629 trillion by 2027.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Joe, , Paul Donovan, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Credit Suisse, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Suisse Locations: New York, United States, China
In the first seven months of the year, exports to the United States declined 18.6 percent compared with the same period last year, while shipments to the European Union fell 5 percent. Exports to Russia, which has been hit with Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, increased more than 70 percent. “There has been general weakness in demand for China’s exports,” he said. A real estate crisis and weak spending by consumers have put pressure on Beijing to increase exports to help stabilize the economy. But the trade numbers released on Tuesday suggest weak demand may exacerbate a global slowdown.
Persons: Paul Donovan, Organizations: European Union, UBS, Officials, China Locations: United States, Russia, Ukraine, Mexico, Canada, China, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of England rate hike: Less was definitely more, UBS economist saysPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses Bank of England's latest interest rate hike and the outlook for its monetary policy.
Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: Email Bank of, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, England's
The Federal Reserve has made three big mistakes since inflation took off in 2021, according to UBS. "Today's rate hike will probably have to be reversed in a relatively short space of time," UBS said. Today's additional rate hike from the Fed gets to the root of what has went wrong. These are the three big mistakes made by the Fed over the past two years, and how it will impact the economy, according to UBS. "A sensible recognition of the declining quality of economic data would have stopped the blind hike, hike, hike strategy."
Persons: Paul Donovan, Donovan, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management's, Fed Locations: Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFurther rate hikes aren't the right approach from central banks, UBS' Paul Donovan saysPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, says further interest rate hikes from central banks may not be the right approach as the economy is slowing and disinflation forces are working,
Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management
The cost of certain goods is retreating in some places, but that doesn't include live music. Concert tickets have surged in price, to the point where economists are noticing. While ticket prices have increased, he said, mid-year figures haven't shown an appreciable rise since May 2022, when U.S. inflation was 8.6%. In India, fans are happy to pay a premium for quality entertainment, according to Owen Roncon, chief of business for Live Entertainment at BookMyShow. In Britain, about 150,000 music fans paid 340 pounds ($431)for a ticket to June's Glastonbury festival to see Elton John and hundreds of other acts.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, haven't, Mario Ihieme, Paul Donovan, Harry Styles, Joel Barrios, Carolina Candelas, Andy Gensler, Pollstar, TD Cowen, Stephen Glagola, Elton John, Jason Cairnduff, Bruno Mars, Coldplay, Fairuz Zahari, Ed Sheeran, Owen Roncon, Eventbrite, Michael Rapino, Beth Cook, Dawn Chmielewski, Danielle Broadway, Sachin Ravikumar, David Milliken, Sharon Kimathi, Rozanna, Radhika Anilkumar, David Gaffen, Catherine Evans Organizations: LOS ANGELES, National Statistics, UBS Global Wealth Management, Stubhub, Ticketmaster, REUTERS, U.S . Labor Department, Backstreet, Live Entertainment, Backstreet Boys, Entertainment, Thomson Locations: Asia, U.S, GLASTONBURY, England, London, Seattle, Mexico City, Los Angeles, Europe, Barcelona, Glastonbury, Somerset, Britain, Malaysia, Australia, India, Leeds, Kuala Lumpur, Bangalore
The cost of certain goods is retreating in some places, but that doesn't include live music. Concert tickets have surged in price, to the point where economists are noticing. Event prices in UK inflation data are based on when shows take place, not when tickets are bought. While ticket prices have increased, he said, mid-year figures haven't shown an appreciable rise since May 2022, when U.S. inflation was 8.6%. The U.S. Labor Department does not specifically measure inflation for concert prices, but the inflation rate for live performing admission events is currently 2.6 percentage points more than U.S. headline inflation.
Persons: Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, haven't, Mario Ihieme, Paul Donovan, Harry Styles, Joel Barrios, Carolina Candelas, Andy Gensler, Pollstar, TD Cowen, Stephen Glagola, Bruno Mars, Coldplay, Fairuz Zahari, Ed Sheeran, Owen Roncon, Eventbrite, Michael Rapino, Elton John, Beth Cook, Dawn Chmielewski, Danielle Broadway, Sachin Ravikumar, David Milliken, Sharon Kimathi, Rozanna, Radhika Anilkumar, David Gaffen, Catherine Evans Organizations: LOS ANGELES, National Statistics, UBS Global Wealth Management, Stubhub, Ticketmaster, U.S . Labor Department, Backstreet, Live Entertainment, Backstreet Boys, Entertainment, Thomson Locations: Asia, U.S, GLASTONBURY, England, London, Seattle, Mexico City, Los Angeles, Europe, Barcelona, Malaysia, Australia, India, Britain, Leeds, Glastonbury, Kuala Lumpur, Bangalore
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets pricing out rate cuts for this year is the right move, says RegentAtlantic's Andy KapyrinPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, and AAndy Kapyrin, CI RegentAtlantic Private Wealth co-CIO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's next policy move, signs of moderating inflation, and companies pushing off costs on to consumers.
Persons: Andy Kapyrin Paul Donovan, AAndy Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Wealth
ECB rate hikes to create divisions in European economy, UBS says
  + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB rate hikes to create divisions in European economy, UBS saysPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, discusses new German industrial data, the path ahead for European monetary policy, and the U.S. economy.
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