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China's industrial profits dropped by 10% in October from a year ago, in another sign that Beijing's stimulus measures have yet to reverse a slump in corporate earnings. Industrial profits are a key gauge of the financial health of factories, mines and utilities in China. In the first ten months, profits at China's industrial firms decreased by 4.3% from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement Wednesday. China's consumer price index in October rose slower than expected, edging up 0.3% from a year ago, marking the slowest rise since June. Meanwhile, producer price index fell 2.9% on year, showing that deflation deepened from the 2.8% drop in the prior month.
Persons: — CNBC's Evelyn Cheng Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, PMI Locations: Oriental, Lianyungang Port, Lianyungang, China
The interest rate outlook will come back into focus next week with key inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting minutes coming out ahead of Thanksgiving, as investors wrap up a major month for markets following President-elect Donald Trump's election victory. The October personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index set to release Wednesday could dent already-dimming hopes for a December rate cut if it comes in hotter than expected. The inflation rate is expected to have increased 0.2% month over month and 2.3% year on year. Rosy expectations Even with the interest rate cut expectations coming in, investors are optimistic on the direction for stocks to close out the year and into 2025. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin this week said he expects the S & P 500 can end next year at 6,500.
Persons: Donald Trump's, , Luke O'Neill, Stocks, O'Neill, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Brian Belski, Tom Hainlin, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Alpha Fund, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, BMO, UBS, Bank Asset Management, Dell Technologies, Chicago, New, Richmond Fed, Devices, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: U.S, Chicago
What exactly President-elect Donald Trump's second term means for the stock market will be the question investors continue to grapple with in the week ahead. Nvidia earnings results will also be on deck as investors deal with stubbornly high interest rates as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged past 44,000 for the first time ever, and the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite similarly posted new records. Sales of Blackwell and Grace Blackwell are expected to start to show up in results next year. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF has surged 11% this month.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jimmy Chang, Jensen Huang, CNBC's, Blackwell, Grace Blackwell, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Kumar, Jensen, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Novavax, Ken Mahoney, Trump, There's, Mahoney, Rockefeller's Chang, Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Rockefeller Global Family, Treasury, Nvidia, Blackwell, Health, Human Services Department, Moderna, Asset Management, Regional Banking ETF, Federal, White, FWDBONDS, Housing, Walmart, Lowe's, Palo Alto Networks, Philadelphia Fed, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere, PMI, PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services Locations: China, U.S, NAHB, . Kansas, Michigan
Krisztian Bocsi | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesDonald Trump's election as U.S. President could mark yet another major blow for the struggling German economy. The print came after the German economy ministry in October said it was now expecting the country's economy will contract, rather than grow this year. Trump's victory could make matters worse. Reliance on exportsThe German economy is heavily reliant on exports — and Trump is set to slap tariffs and other restrictions on imports. The German statistics office Destatis last month said that the U.S.' importance as a trading partner for Germany has been growing.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Germany's, Krisztian Bocsi, Donald Trump's, Moritz Schularick, Trump, Schularick, ifo, Morningstar DBRS, Lisandra Flach Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, PMI, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Kiel Institute, Trump, Reliance, China, Beijing, Destatis, ifo Center, International Economics, European Union, EU Locations: Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of Germany, Europe, U.S
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. ET the 10-year Treasury yield was down by less than one basis point to 4.3029%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also less than one basis points lower at 4.1681%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Tuesday as investors readied themselves for the presidential election. The U.S. will head to the polls on Tuesday for the hotly anticipated presidential election.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, NBC, PMI, Census, Federal Reserve, Traders Locations: U.S, Washington
Chinese Premier Li Qiang spurred market expectations for more stimulus in a speech. China's services activity and business confidence rose in October, boosting market sentiment. Beijing is monitoring the US presidential election and may adjust its fiscal stimulus based on its outcome. He also drummed up market expectations for more economic stimulus, saying Beijing has "ample space for fiscal policy and monetary policy." AdvertisementBeijing is likely to roll out a bigger stimulus to buffer market volatility if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, Varathan wrote.
Persons: Li Qiang, , Li's, Wang Zhe, Wang, Hong, Harris, Vishnu, Mizuho Bank's, Donald Trump, Varathan Organizations: Service, P Global, Protesters, Caixin Insight, Deutsche Bank, PMI, National People's Congress, Trump Presidency, Reuters Locations: Beijing, China, Asia, Japan
The yield on 10-year Treasury was last down by over six basis points, hovering around the 4.3% mark. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last down by more than three basis points to 4.1661%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Monday as investors braced for a busy week which will see voters head to the polls for the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. Investors are also focused on the Fed's interest rate decision at the central bank's policy meeting on Thursday. Traders are were last pricing in a 99% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, U.S . House, NBC, PMI
Workers assemble at a workshop of an equipment manufacturing enterprise in Yunmenshan Street, Qingzhou city, East China's Shandong province, Aug. 9, 2023. China's factory activity swung back into expansion among smaller manufacturers in October, according to a private survey released on Friday. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 in October, beating the median estimate of 49.7 in a Reuters poll. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a reading below that level points to contraction. This private gauge, which focuses on smaller and export-oriented firms, comes after the official PMI data, released Thursday, indicated that manufacturing activity in the country expanded for the first time since April.
Organizations: P Global, PMI Locations: Yunmenshan, Qingzhou city, East China's Shandong
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Big Tech drags down marketsMajor U.S. indexes slumped on Thursday, weighed down heavily by losses in Big Tech shares. While the company's cloud division missed revenue expectations, it's growing faster than it had in the same period last year. CNBC Pro checked in with Teng again to find out how his picks have performed, and if he has changed his mind on the stocks he's betting on.
Persons: Kevin Teng, Teng Organizations: CNBC, Big Tech, U.S, Japan's Nikkei, CSI, Apple, Amazon, P Global, PMI, Boeing, Wrise Private Singapore Locations: Asia, Pacific, Cupertino, China
But the true implications for investors monitoring the election may lie in which party controls Congress, rather than who will sit in the White House. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The importance of whichever party controls Congress was highlighted by Trump's recent trips outside battleground states such as New Mexico , a state that hasn't voted for a GOP presidential nominee in roughly 20 years. On the other hand, Evercore ISI's Emanuel expects a Harris victory, with a Democratic sweep of Congress, could result in the S & P 500 falling to roughly 5,700. The S & P 500 slid 1%, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.5%. Earnings season continues with about 100 S & P 500 companies confirmed to report.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, I'm, Abuhoff Jacobson, hasn't, Brian Burrell, Jay Hatfield, Harris, Hatfield, Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI's Emanuel, Jerome Powell's, Ralph Lauren, Warner, Alex Harring Organizations: NBC, Congress, House, Democratic, Republican, Hartford Investments, GOP, Thornburg Investment Management, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Senate, Wednesday, Regional Banking, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, National, Marriott International, Diamondback Energy, Wynn Resorts, Palantir Technologies, NXP Semiconductors, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Petroleum, Brands, Technology, Computer, CVS, Howmet Aerospace, Gilead Sciences, Labor, Consumer, Moderna, Molson Coors Beverage, Halliburton, Hershey Co, Warner Bros, Expedia, Akamai Technologies, Paramount Locations: New Mexico, Albuquerque, Santa Fe , New Mexico, Hartford, Albemarle, Qualcomm, Michigan
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), speaks during a news conference at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, JapanAsia-Pacific markets are set for a mixed open on Thursday as investors look to the Bank of Japan's rate decision, as well as key business activity figures from China. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ will hold rates at 0.25%, although the statement will be parsed for any clues on the timing of its next rate hike. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics is set to release the country's official purchasing managers index numbers for September, with the manufacturing PMI forecast to come in at 49.9, a softer contraction than the 49.8 the month before. Still, that would be the sixth straight month of contraction for the country's manufacturing sector.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of, Reuters, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Tokyo, Japan Asia, Pacific, China
Market Navigator: Opportunities in China’s economy
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket Navigator: Opportunities in China’s economyJason Hsu, Rayliant Global Advisors founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss China’s better-than-expected PMI and if it's time to invest in the economy.
Persons: Jason Hsu Organizations: Rayliant Global Advisors
BEIJING — China's official purchasing managers' index for October came in at 50.1, in expansionary territory for the first time since April, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Thursday. The last time the PMI was above the 50-point line that determines contraction from activity was in April, with a reading of 50.4. Raw materials inventory ticked up to 48.2, still in contraction territory, along with employment at 48.4, which was mildly better than the prior month. The statistics bureau's PMI for non-manufacturing activity rose to 50.2 in October. The employment portion of the non-manufacturing PMI climbed by 1.1 percentage points to 45.8.
Organizations: BEIJING, National Bureau, Statistics, PMI
Chicago PMI falls to 5-month low in October
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago PMI falls to 5-month low in OctoberCNBC's Rick Santelli joins 'Squawk on the Street' with October's Chicago PMI numbers.
Persons: Rick Santelli Organizations: PMI, Chicago PMI Locations: Chicago
Yen under pressure as BOJ keeps rates steady
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen remained under pressure on Thursday as the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates steady, while the U.S. dollar consolidated ahead of jobs data later this week and the U.S. presidential election next week. The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Thursday and roughly maintained its forecast that inflation will hover near its 2% inflation target in coming years, signaling its readiness to continue rolling back its massive monetary stimulus. Analysts are divided over the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by year-end, putting the focus on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting briefing for clues on the pace and timing of further increases. "Any strengthening of the yen at present would likely result from a general weakening of the U.S. dollar if interest rates begin to align," said Sean Teo, a sales trader at Saxo.
Persons: Yen, Kazuo Ueda's, Sean Teo, payrolls, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Saxo, National Statistics, PMI, Westpac, European Central Bank, Australian, Analysts, New Zealand Locations: China, U.S
September's payrolls report exceeded expectations, but economists see weak gains for October. Even with lower expectations, a poor print could reset the market's narrative around a soft landing. AdvertisementThe narrative around ongoing labor-market strength revived with September's payrolls report, which topped economists' expectations by over 100,000 jobs. "The October jobs report will likely show a severe but short-lived hit from hurricanes Helene and Milton," Adams said. Another sign that September's jobs numbers may have been overstated is that other employment indicators haven't started to trend upwards.
Persons: September's, , Hurricanes Milton, Helene, Tom Essaye, Ben McMillan, McMillan, Goldman Sachs, there's, Goldman, Claudia Sahm, Michael Cuggino, Bill Adams, Milton, Adams, Neil Dutta, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Dutta Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, IDX Advisors, of Labor Statistics, Comerica, Funds, Federal Reserve, Macro, BLS, PMI
China's industrial profits in September dropped at its fastest pace since the pandemic, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, as the country tussles with an economy plagued by slow growth, lack of demand and a property crisis. After a 17.8% fall in August, industrial profits declined 27.1% in September from a year ago, marking the steepest plunge since March 2020, when it dropped by 34.9%, according to data kept by Wind Information. In the first nine months, industrial profits fell by 3.5% from a year ago. NBS statistician Yu Weining said "insufficient demand and a sharp decline in producer prices" weighed down the profitability of industrial firms. Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, said in an email to CNBC that "the weakness of industrial profits indicates China's greater need for demand-side policies."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Yu Weining, Gary Ng Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Information, People's, CNBC, Reuters, PMI Locations: Jiangxi Province, Shanghai, China, Beijing
Investors will contend with earnings results from five of the Magnificent Seven companies next week. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 "I sort of refer to this period that we're in right now as like a strange brew," said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high , but the S & P 500 snapped a six-week win streak. In fact, the high concentration of the mega-cap leaders in the S & P 500 spurred Goldman Sachs' David Kostin this month to release a dim long-term forecast for the overall market. HSBC head of equity strategy Nicole Inui upped her S & P 500 year-end target to 5,900.
Persons: Mark Malek, Siebert, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Siebert's Malek, they've, Nicole Inui, Inui, D.R Horton, Price, Eli Lilly, Lauder Organizations: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Big Tech, HSBC, FactSet, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Ford, Semiconductor, Caesars Entertainment, Devices, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean Group, PayPal, ADP, Kraft Heinz, Caterpillar, GE Healthcare Technologies, Holdings, ECI Civilian Workers, PCE, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, Cruise Line Holdings, Uber Technologies, Lauder Companies, Mastercard, Generac, Jobs, PMI, Manufacturing, Exxon Mobil Locations: U.S, Chicago
High-yield savings accountsA high-yield savings account earns a higher-than-average interest rate compared with traditional savings accounts, helping your money grow faster. “High-yield savings accounts [are] great if you’re going to be buying in the next year,” Williams said. Money market fundsA money market fund generally has a slightly higher yield than a HYSA, said Dennehy. Some of the highest-yielding retail money market funds are nearly 5% as of Oct. 23, according to Crane Data. Still, money market funds are considered low risk and are intended not to lose value, according to Vanguard.
Persons: , Ryan Dennehy, it’s, Shaun Williams, Dennehy, there’s, Jeffrey Hanson, , ” Williams Organizations: California Financial Advisors, CNBC, Census, Federal Reserve, Paragon Capital Management, National Association of Realtors, PMI, Mortgage, Treasury, U.S ., Traphagen Financial, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Vanguard, Securities Investor Protection Corp Locations: California, San Ramon , California, Denver, Oradell , New Jersey, Denver , Colorado
Investors are turning their attention to third-quarter earnings season, with 21% of S&P 500 companies set to report this week. Bank of America said that company executives are striking an optimistic tone on earnings calls. The decline on Monday comes as third-quarter earnings season nears its peak, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies set to report results this week, including Coca-Cola, Tesla, Boeing, and UPS. Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian said that company executives are striking an optimistic tone on earnings calls. Analysts have been feeling bullish on the stock's prospects for further gains amid big demand for its new Blackwell chips.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Blackwell, Fedspeak Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Boeing, UPS, Bank of America . Bank of America, PMI, Here's
Earnings next week will be key to where stocks head from here. While roughly one-tenth of S & P 500 companies reported over the past week, about 20% of the broader index plans to report next week. He noted that the S & P 500 is trading at a 40% premium to its long-term P/E ratio, while tech stocks are trading at upwards of 60%. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 , it's the first such streak going back to December 2023. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S & P 500 slightly outpaced the market-cap weighted benchmark this week, a bullish signal for sectors such as health care.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Stovall, FactSet's John Butters, Butters, it's, Tesla, Lockheed Martin, Russell, Nelson Yu, Harker Organizations: U.S, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Lockheed, GE Aerospace, Business Machines, General Motors, Verizon Communications, United Parcel Services, Southwest Airlines, Nvidia, Philadelphia Reserve, Chicago, PMI, New, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Locations: Independence, Philadelphia, . Kansas
At the same time, the brand's popularity may have peaked and is "on the way out," teens said in the firm's annual survey. While Stanley's multi-colored insulated cups still have considerable caché, upper-income teens told Piper Sander that the products could soon see the same fate as skinny jeans. Upper-income male teens surveyed ranked Stanley cups as their fifth-most fashion trend on the way out. Keith told Business Insider the survey's fashion trend question is open-ended, meaning that respondents are not prompted by a list of options. "They really kind of struck gold with these larger, thick cups, with the handle and a straw," Keith told BI.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Stanley, , Piper Sander, Peter Keith, Alexia Morgan, Keith, doesn't, weren't, Piper Sandler's, Morgan, hasn't, Dominick Organizations: Service, CNBC, PMI
Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.
Persons: , Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected, but tweaked its policy stance to "neutral," opening the door for rate cuts amid early signs of a growth slowdown in the economy. The Monetary Policy Committee, which consists of three RBI and three external members, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for a tenth straight policy meeting. The committee, however, changed its policy stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation." The MPC last changed rates in February 2023, when the policy rate was raised to 6.50%. India's overall growth slowed to 6.7% in the June quarter.
Organizations: Bank of, Global, Reserve Bank of India, Monetary, Committee, Reuters, MPC, PMI Locations: Bank of India, Mumbai, India
With homes becoming increasingly unaffordable, more buyers are using an increasingly popular strategy to lower their mortgage rate. Buying points — also referred to as "discount points" or "buying down the rate" — involves paying extra to your lender at closing to reduce the interest rate on a mortgage. That reduced rate results in smaller monthly payments and long-term interest savings over the life of the loan. A larger down payment reduces the total loan amount, which also has the effect of lowering monthly payments. Ultimately, whether a larger down payment or buying points will actually lower your monthly payments depends on your specific loan terms.
Persons: That's, Aaron Gordon Organizations: Guild Mortgage
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