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☆ Why inflation could rise and interest rates remain elevated under a Trump presidency
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

(Higher interest rates tend to boost the value of a currency by attracting more capital from abroad as investors seek bigger returns.) “Investors are bracing for tariffs… which will push up the price of imported goods for American shoppers,” she wrote in a note Wednesday. The pain of Trump’s tariffs will be felt far beyond US borders. “We also believe that Trump could decide to implement even higher tariffs on economies that run large trade surpluses with the US,” BMI analysts wrote in a note Wednesday. “Donald Trump’s economic course will pose major problems for Germany and the European Union,” the institute said.

Persons: Donald Trump, Matthew Ryan, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves, ”, Trump’s, Trump, ” Nomura, Philip Shaw, Ellie Henderson, Streeter, Anthony Kettle, “, Spencer Platt, “ Donald Trump’s Organizations: London CNN, Republican, Senate, CNN, Federal Reserve, Trump, “, RBC Global Asset Management, BMI, Fitch Solutions, Port, Getty, European Union, Ifo Institute for Economic Research Locations: United States, Mexico, China, Germany, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Newark, New Jersey, Munich

Investors cautioned that tax breaks would not be sufficient to raise business investment while UK interest rates stayed high. But Wednesday, equity markets focused on Hunt's business boosts, such as a move to make full expensing on investment permanent. UK stock markets have underperformed their European and U.S. peers in 2023. The FTSE 100 index 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 10.7, about half that of U.S. stocks, with Hunt's budget unlikely to move the dial too far. Reuters GraphicsSTERLING SOGGYThe pound struggled to gain any traction on the back of Hunt's budget.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kwasi Kwarteng, Leigh Himsworth, Simon Harvey, Philip Shaw, Thomas McGarrity, Fuller, Smith, Turner, Oli Creasey, It's, BoE, GILTS, Craig Erlam, Goldman Sachs, Naomi Rovnick, Samuel Indyk, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Harry Robertson, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Wednesday, Traders, Investors, Fidelity International, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, BT, Investec, RBC Wealth Management, Reuters, BREWERS, Debt Management, Reuters Graphics STERLING, Thomson Locations: U.S, Cheviot, gilts, London

[1/5] Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt leaves 11 Downing Street for the House of Commons to deliver his autumn statement, in London, Britain, November 22, 2023. "After a global pandemic and energy crisis, we have taken difficult decisions to put our economy back on track," Hunt told parliament on Wednesday in his Autumn Statement fiscal update. Hunt pointed to OBR forecasts showing the government would meet its targets for the public finances, leaving open the possibility of further pre-election giveaways to voters in his full budget statement expected in early 2024. Sunak this week promised "responsible" tax cuts, mindful of last year's "mini-budget" turmoil in financial markets triggered by his predecessor Liz Truss's plans for much bigger tax cuts. This time last year, the newly installed Sunak and Hunt raised taxes sharply to quell the bond market mayhem.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Stefan Rousseau, Hunt, Rishi Sunak's, Paul Johnson, we've, giveaways, Johnson, BoE, Philip Shaw, Liz Truss's, Muvija M, Paul Sandle, Sarah Young, William James, Elizabeth Piper, Alistair Smout, Andrew MacAskill, James Davey, Suban Abdulla, Farouq Suleiman, Kate Holton, Sumanta Sen, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Labour, Labour Party, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Gross, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, Graphics, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, British

☆ What Is Going On in Britain’s Economy? The Picture Is Foggy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Eshe Nelson | More About Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Tuesday’s data showed that the labor market was continuing to cool, following the same trend as the previous month, with more unemployment and fewer job vacancies. The Bank of England has raised interest rates to their highest level since 2008, and officials have signaled they will remain high well into next year. But the latest labor market release needs to be taken “with a huge pinch of salt,” Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec, wrote in an analyst note. Policymakers at the Bank of England have “lost another important set of figures” to guide them in setting interest rates, he argued. Last month, the statistics office issued a particularly large upward revision to the size of the economy after pandemic lockdowns.

Persons: ” Philip Shaw Organizations: Bank of England, Investec, Statisticians, Labor Force Survey

☆ Reactions: Bank of England bashes pound after halting rate rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks near the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, July 30, 2023. Investors had already rushed on Wednesday to reel in their bets on further UK rate rises after data showed UK inflation cooled surprisingly quickly in August. Against the euro , the pound was down 0.5% at 86.74 pence, having traded around 86.70 pence before the decision. "The MPC still refers to its flexibility to react should things change, but the chances are this could be the peak in this UK interest rate cycle." "However, there is a risk that the ‘lag effect’ on interest rate hikes means that today’s decision may not be felt for another 9 to 12 months."

Persons: Hollie Adams, Sterling, THOMAS, Huw Pill's, HUGH GIMBER, PHILIP SHAW, DOUGLAS GRANT, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, FRANCES HAQUE, JOE TUCKEY, RICHARD GARLAND, GILES COGHLAN, BoE, stagflation, Amanda Cooper, Dhara Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, London, Investors, Bank of, Bank, MPC, SANTANDER, LONDON, Core CPI, PMI, CPI, EMEA, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, London, MANX, EUROPEAN, FRANCE, GROUP, OXFORDSHIRE

☆ 'Tourflation'? Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Bruce Springsteen could be making inflation worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Beyoncé performs onstage during the “RENAISSANCE WORLD TOUR” at PGE Narodowy on June 27, 2023 in Warsaw, Poland. "One of the things of course that struck me is how enormously high prices for concerts, for gigs have become," he told CNBC Make It. "I suspect that there is an impact on inflation overall from concert prices becoming more expensive. That's not necessarily due to one particular artist," he said, adding that concert prices themselves do, however, appear to have increased. Taylor Swift performs onstage during night one of Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour at Nissan Stadium on May 05, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee.

Persons: Beyoncé, Kevin Mazur, Taylor Swift, Bruce Springsteen, Elton John, Harry Styles, Ed Sheeran, Natalie Merchant, Klaus Baader, It's, Filip Andersson, Andersson, it's, Philip Shaw, haven't, Baader, John Shearer, Shaw Organizations: PGE, Getty, Ticketmaster, U.K, Societe Generale, CNBC, Danske Bank, Nissan Locations: Warsaw, Poland, U.S, Sweden, Stockholm, Swedish, Nashville , Tennessee

The housing market has totemic importance in Britain's consumption-driven economy and is closely linked to consumer confidence. The average mortgage rate on new two-year mortgage deals rose on Wednesday to 5.90%, according to property data provider Moneyfacts - the highest since December last year, in the aftermath of the mini-budget. "It takes a far lower mortgage rate to create the same amount of financial stress in terms of repayments as a double-digit mortgage rate did back in previous periods," Hudson said. Reuters GraphicsSTRESSThe question now is how mortgage market stress will feed through into the real economy. Jamie Lennox, director at broker Dimora Mortgages, said there was "no end in sight" for the trouble in the mortgage market.

Persons: Hannah McKay, Liz Truss, We're, Neal Hudson, Hudson, Jamie Lennox, shivers, BoE, Philip Shaw, Lucy Raitano, Iain Withers, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Investors, HSBC, Reuters, Financial, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, BoE's

Despite the improvement, British economic output remained 0.6% below its level of late 2019, the only G7 economy not to have recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said Friday's figures showed high inflation had taken a slightly smaller toll than previously thought. But the picture could darken again if recent turmoil in the global banking sector leads to lenders reining in loans. BUSINESS INVESTMENT FALLSThe data suggested businesses remained cautious. The ONS said increased foreign earnings by companies, particularly in the energy sector, helped narrow the deficit.

☆ Stocks slide but dollar gains as central banks continue inflation battle
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Lawrence Delevingne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) slipping 2.5%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) down about 2.6% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) off 3%. The STOXX (.STOXX) fell by about 2.85% as heavyweight stocks across sectors sank. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes down 6.4 basis points to 3.439% and the 30-year down 8.1 basis points to 3.459%. China's economy, however, lost more steam in November as factory output slowed and retail sales fell again, hobbled by surging COVID-19 infections. U.S. crude fell 0.75% to $76.70 per barrel and Brent was at $81.85, down 1.03% on the day.

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, says inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.

But only one policymaker, Catherine Mann, wanted to match November's bigger 0.75 percentage point increase - the BoE's largest in more than 30 years - and two MPC members voted to keep rates on hold. Sterling weakened against the U.S. dollar after the BoE's decision, falling to around $1.23, and it also declined against the euro. "While the 50-basis-point increase in the Bank rate was as expected, the extent of the divisions across the committee is an eye-opener," Philip Shaw, an economist with Investec, said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve also slowed the pace of its rate hikes while pointing to more tightening in 2023. That 0.4 percentage point fall in the annual rate was the largest since July 2021.

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 3.5% after inflation hits 41-year high
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Financial markets currently price in a 78% chance that the BoE will raise rates by half a percentage point to 3.5% on Dec. 15, and a 22% chance of a rise to 3.75%. "The BoE has made it pretty clear that inflation is too high. With a range of views on the MPC about how near BoE rates are to a peak, a first-ever four-way vote split was possible, she added. Last month, seven MPC members voted to raise rates to 3%, but Silvana Tenreyro voted for a quarter-point rise to 2.5% and Swati Dhingra for 2.75%. Financial markets currently see BoE rates peaking at 4.75% by the middle of next year, while HSBC expects the BoE to stop at 3.75% in February and Investec predicts a peak of 4%.

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