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In the race against the US for global tech supremacy, China has the upper hand in at least one critical area: rare earths. AdvertisementFor more than a year, Beijing has slowly been tightening its grip on critical minerals and rare earths. Now, there are fears that China could tighten the global rare earths supply chain even more. China's rare earth dominanceChina has long dominated the rare earths market due to supply, low labor costs, and lax environmental standards. In 2022, the US Department of Defense awarded $45 million to MP Materials for rare earth oxide processing, and in 2023, it awarded over $288 million to Lynas USA to set up commercial-scale rare earth oxide production facilities.
Persons: Deng Xiaoping, , Rick Waters, Donald Trump's, Louise Loo, Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Chris Tang, Nick Vyas, USC Marshall's Randall R, Vyas, he's Organizations: European Union, World Trade Organization, US Department of Defense, Materials, US, White, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Oxford Economics, Greater China, Council, Foreign Relations, Soviet, Bloomberg, AMD, USC, Kendrick, Supply Chain Institute, Bureau of Industry, Security Locations: China, US, Beijing, Japan, USA, Eurasia, Washington, Taiwan, Greater, Soviet Union, North Korea, North Vietnam
That’s nearly double the household income of $56,800 needed to afford a new home in 2019. Just 36% of US households earned enough to afford a new home, compared to 59% in Q3 2019. A shortage of homes in the US, combined with increased demand, helped create intense competition, leading to skyrocketing home prices in cities across America. A major contributor to the home affordability crisis: rising mortgage rates. Mortgage rates, which are the interest rates a lender charges on a home loan, ballooned in 2022 and 2023 as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to combat inflation.
Persons: That’s, Louis, ” Barbara Denham Organizations: CNN, Oxford Economics, Midwest, Oxford, Federal Reserve Locations: America, San Jose , California, California, San Francisco , Los Angeles, San Diego, Cleveland , Louisville, Detroit, St, Florida , Arizona, South Carolina
Chinese authorities last month announced high-level plans for subsidies and tax breaks to households with children under the age of 3. China's efforts to bolster birth rates have yet to address the core reasons for their rapid decline, according to analysts. Births in China have been on a drastic downward trend since the government implemented its "one-child policy" nationwide in 1980. An increasingly pressing factor for families in China is uncertainty about income for raising a child. After decades of rapid expansion, China's economy has slowed down, dragged down by a real estate slump.
Persons: Lauren Johnston, Harry Murphy Cruise, Austin Schumacher, Schumacher, Sheana Yue, Yue Organizations: Dongfang, China Studies Center, University of Sydney, United Nations, Moody's, Institute for Health Metrics, University of Washington, Oxford Locations: Lianyungang, China, U.S
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesDonald Trump's election victory over Vice President Kamala Harris marks a historic return to the White House — an extraordinary political comeback that is likely to have seismic ramifications for the global economy. The former president's litany of campaign pledges include steep tariffs, tax cuts, deregulation and a push to withdraw from key global agreements. Trump's favorite wordTrump has previously described "tariff" as his favorite word, calling it "the most beautiful word in the dictionary." And we don't see Trump's secondary tariff pledge — that baseline tariff, which would hurt European companies — as being all that feasible," Galbraith said. Analysts have warned that Trump's plan to impose universal tariffs are highly likely to raise prices for consumers and slow spending.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, Lizzy Galbraith, Abrdn, Galbraith, CNBC's, Donald Trump, Ben May, Mitchell Reiss Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, European Union, Bloomberg, Trump, Oxford Economics, Signum Global Advisors, Macquarie Group, Royal United Services Institute Locations: Binzhou, China, Florida, U.S, Mexico, Greensboro , North Carolina, Ukraine, Europe, Asia, Qingdao Port, Shandong province, Qingdao, American
New York CNN —Donald Trump rode a powerful wave of discontent over the cost of living back to the White House. Trump reminded voters often that inflation wasn’t a problem when he was calling the shots. But if he’s not careful, Trump could have an inflation problem of his own. They point to study after study that shows Americans bore almost the entire cost of Trump’s tariffs on China. “When Trump uses tariffs as a negotiating tool, I’m fine with that,” Moore said during a phone interview in late October.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, he’s, ” Ryan Sweet, won’t, ” Sweet, , Joe Biden, CNN’s Phil Mattingly, ” He’s, Trump’s, “ We’re, ” Daniel Alpert, CNN’s Allison Morrow, Stephen Moore, CNN he’s “, ” Moore Organizations: New, New York CNN, Voters, Oxford Economics, CNN, Trump, Federal, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, National Retail Federation, Westwood Capital Locations: New York, Washington, Pennsylvania, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan paused its interest rate normalization to wait for the outcome of the U.S. electionShigeto Nagai of Oxford Economics says the Bank of Japan cannot explicitly state so, but the main concern and reason behind its monetary policy decision is how the U.S. elections might affect the Yen.
Persons: Shigeto Nagai Organizations: Email Bank of Japan, Oxford Economics, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S
AdvertisementWhen Morgan earned her bachelor's degree in 2018, she graduated with over $20,000 in student loan debt that she hoped to pay off by 2032. Morgan now expects to fully pay off her remaining $16,000 student debt balance by 2028 — four years earlier than planned. Morgan estimates that receiving student debt relief will allow her to pay off her loans four years ahead of schedule. MorganGlobalFoundries is betting that student debt relief will help it attract prospective employees and retain current workers. The company's student debt relief program is just another way it's trying to attract workers.
Persons: Chipmaker GlobalFoundries, , Morgan, she's, they've, GlobalFoundries, it's, Morgan GlobalFoundries, Joe Biden, Raman, Biden, we've, Stephanie, It's Organizations: Service, Business, Semiconductor Industry Association, Oxford Economics, Nvidia, Bright, GlobalFoundries Locations: York, Malta, New York, Austin
The People's Bank of China triggered two market support programs after China announced economic data. China's economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of this year, the country's statistics bureau announced as it touted a "stable growth trend." "The property market unsurprisingly remains the biggest drag on China's growth," wrote Song, adding that stabilization in the real estate market remains "elusive." China's economy is being dragged by factors including a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation. He added that he expects Beijing to continue to do more to support growth so the economy can enter 2025 on better footing.
Persons: , Sheng Laiyun, China's, Lynn Song, Betty Wang, Larry Hu, Rajiv Biswas, who's, Wang Organizations: People's Bank of China, Service, Reuters, Greater China, ING, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Macquarie Group Locations: China, Greater, People's Bank of China, Beijing
US efforts to produce semiconductor chips will continue regardless of who wins the election. AdvertisementNo matter who wins the presidential election this November, President Joe Biden can rest easy knowing one thing: The US's chip manufacturing push isn't going anywhere. The US has seen its share of overall chip production fall from 37% of the world's supply in 1990 to 12%. While many factories remain under construction, the federal funding has already helped boost US chip production. According to a report published last year by the trade and lobbying group Semiconductor Industry Association and Oxford Economics, the US semiconductor industry will face a shortage of 67,000 workers by 2030, including technicians, computer scientists, and engineers.
Persons: Harris, Trump, , Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Stephen Ezell, Anna Kelly, Kelly, Arizonans, Chris Miller, Mark Muro, Dylan Patel, SemiAnalysis, Ezell, Muro Organizations: Service, Trump, Information Technology, Innovation Foundation, ITIF's Center for Life Sciences, Biden, Republican, Intel, American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Metro, Apple, Nvidia, Democratic, Semiconductor Industry Association, Oxford Economics Locations: Arizona, USA, China, Taiwan
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — Britain's ultra-rich non-doms are urging the government to introduce an Italian-style flat-tax regime to prevent a wealth exodus, as their preferential status comes under threat in the upcoming budget. That differs from Italy's regime, which charges a recently doubled rate of 200,000 euros per year regardless of wealth bracket. Non-doms move their moneyReeves had previously said that scrapping the program could generate £2.6 billion ($3.38 billion) for the Treasury over the course of the next government. We need to understand that we need people to be investing here, to create the jobs, wealth, prosperity that we want. Labour courts wealth creatorsThe Labour government has said it is determined to address unfairness in the tax system, pledging in its election manifesto to close non-dom tax loopholes.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Leslie MacLeod Miller, Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Alex Stewart, doms, Sadiq Khan, MacLeod Miller, Dominic Lawrance, Charles Russell Speechlys, Keir Starmer Organizations: Porsche, GTS, Chanel, Bond, Investors, Britain, Oxford Economics, Foreign Investors, CNBC, Labour Party, Treasury, FIFB, Oxford, Labour, Labour's, Investment Locations: London, United Kingdom, IHT, Italy, Switzerland, Dubai, Westbourne, Bayswater, Royal Oak
Hurricane Milton is battering Florida days after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on several states. The two events are the latest sign that hurricanes are becoming more frequent, more ferocious, and more costly. They're also hitting employment and economic growth, at least in the short term. They estimated that a Category 5 storm could lower fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth by 0.14 percentage points, from a forecasted 2.3% to below 2.2%. "Rebuilding should provide a boost to economic activity in those affected regions in subsequent months, and potentially years," Sweet told BI, quoting from his recent note.
Persons: Milton, Hurricane Helene, Helene, They're, Adam Smith, Jefferies, Harvey, Ian, Smith, Michael Mann, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, Mann, Implan Organizations: Service, Hurricanes, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, University of Pennsylvania, Oxford Economics, Boeing, Milton, Potsdam Institute, Climate Impact Research Locations: Florida, North Carolina, Milton
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVietnam's strong third-quarter growth unexpected in the face of moderating demand: Oxford EconomicsAdam Samdin of Oxford Economics weighs in on Vietnam's strong third-quarter GDP print, which factored in the impact of Typhoon Yagi's destruction. He also warned that a lag in policy support could be a risk to foreign direct investment into the country.
Persons: Adam Samdin Organizations: Oxford
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference on September 18 in Washington, DC. Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesThe Federal Reserve’s recent half-point cut will take some time to work through the system, Noah Yosif, chief economist and head of research at the American Staffing Association, told CNN. “Just because the Federal Reserve votes to decrease interest rates in September does not mean that employers are going to see lower costs in October,” he said, adding that it could take three to six months to filter through to businesses. More rate cuts are expected for later this year, but the extent will depend on the health of the labor market, and that outlook could be quite murky due to impact from the strikes and Hurricane Helene. Fed officials, who are scheduled to make the central bank’s next interest rate decision just days after the October jobs report lands, will do their best to look through the noise and what are likely idiosyncratic factors, said Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Anna Moneymaker, Noah Yosif, , , Helene, Ryan Sweet, Ejindu Ume Organizations: American Staffing Association, CNN, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Miami University in Locations: Washington , DC, Miami University in Ohio
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist discusses the impact of the EU tariff vote on Chinese EVsBetty Wang, lead economist in Northeast Asia at Oxford Economics, discusses the European Union's vote on China's electric vehicle tariffs.
Persons: Betty Wang Organizations: Economist, Oxford Economics Locations: Northeast Asia
The widening conflict in the Middle East threatens to crimp growth and stoke inflation, experts say. AdvertisementExperts say the escalating war in the Middle East could choke global economic growth and reignite inflation, just as the US is dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, and China is trying to stabilize its beleaguered economy. "War in the Middle East could exacerbate the instabilities in the global economy, further increase the uncertainties, harm disinflationary efforts, and eventually reduce the global GDP growth," he told Business Insider. AdvertisementKaya warned the conflict could accelerate inflation by disrupting international supply chains and causing the cost of energy and shipping to rise. But he emphasized that hurricanes have historically had limited and short-lived impacts on growth and inflation.
Persons: Helene, , Hurricane Helene, Ahmet Kaya, Kaya, Brent, Assaf Razin, Eitan Berglas, Oliver Allen, Allen, that's, Duncan Wrigley, China's, Wrigley Organizations: stoke, Service, UK's National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Eitan, of Economics, Tel Aviv University, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Oxford Locations: Hurricane, China, Israel, Iran, Oxford, China China, Beijing
CNN —September’s jobs report, due out Friday morning, is expected to show that the US labor market has slowed somewhat but remains on solid footing. While September’s employment data is expected to stay relatively tame, the same can’t be said for the October jobs report, which is set to be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election. The strikes and hurricane-related effects “are not going to permanently alter the trajectory of the labor market; but September is probably our last clean reading on the labor market for a while,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CNN earlier this week. The August jobs report, which showed better-than-expected estimated 142,000 payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate, went a long way to quell those fears. It showed that the jobs market is in “stasis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note issued Tuesday.
Persons: bode, Lydia Boussour, ” Ryan Sweet, Helene, , Erica Groshen, They’ve, , Andrew Challenger, Wells, Noah Yosif, ’ Sweet, Ejindu Ume, “ We’re, ” Ume Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Gulf Coasts, Oxford Economics, of Labor Statistics, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Employers, Challenger, Labor Department, Pantheon, Labor, BLS, , American Staffing Association, Oxford, Miami University in Locations: EY, Hurricane, East, Gulf, Miami University in Ohio
New York CNN —With barely a month to go before the US presidential election, a trifecta of economic shocks is threatening to sap Vice President Kamala Harris’ momentum on voters’ No. 1 issue: a port strike, a hurricane and an escalation of fighting in the Middle East. Price pain could crop up elsewhere if the East Coast port strike, which began Tuesday, drags on longer than a week. “If the Boeing strike and the port strike … last through the second week of October, job growth for October could be negative,” researchers at Oxford Economics wrote Wednesday. A negative jobs report hasn’t been seen in this country since December 2020, the last full month of the Trump administration.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump hasn’t, , , Harris, Emily Elconin, Harris ’, Price, Biden, Hurricane Helene, Moody’s, Helene, hasn’t, Trump, Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Republican, Democratic, Bloomberg, Getty, Boeing, Biden, Oxford Economics Locations: New York, Georgia, East, Maine, Texas, Carolinas, Florida, Tennessee
Australia's inflation rate has come within the RBA's target range in the month of August, easing from 3.5% in July to 2.7%., according to a Wednesday release from the country's Bureau of Statistics. The drop puts the rate below the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2%-3% for the first time since August 2021. He said that while the relief programs will bring headline inflation to the top of the RBA's target range, the RBA will be "looking through" these subsidies and focusing on core inflation. He writes, "the path of core inflation back to the target range has stalled somewhat, and it is hard to see a major improvement in the near term. We think the bank will need to see three more inflation prints before they are comfortable embarking on an easing cycle."
Persons: Australia's, Michelle Bullock, Bullock, Sean Langcake, Langcake Organizations: Statistics, Reserve Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, ., Australia's Locations: SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA, Sydney, Australia, country's, Oxford
AdvertisementLorraine Tan, Morningstar's director of equity research for Asia, also thinks monetary stimulus won't be sufficient. History says their skepticism is warranted, as China's past stimulus efforts have often failed to lead to sustainable gains. Even if this surge holds up, it won't necessarily spark a self-fulfilling prophecy that provides a lasting boost for China's economy. But others like Tan from Morningstar believe this bad news is reflected in Chinese stocks' cheap valuations. The team at UBS Global Wealth Management is also cautiously optimistic about Chinese stocks after this news.
Persons: , they're, Betty Wang, Marcelli, Lorraine Tan, Tan, Brian Mulberry, Mulberry, Wang, China isn't, Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Donald Trump, Rory Green, Xi Jinping, Biden, Trump, That's, Kleintop, Morningstar, she'd Organizations: Service, Business, People's Bank of, Oxford Economics, UBS Global Wealth Management, Zacks Investment Management, Federal Reserve, BI Locations: China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Central, Republic
"Today's policy measures are bold by historical standards," Betty Wang, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Tuesday. Stimulus measures don't address consumptionDespite the fanfare, analysts are divided over whether the moves that ease monetary policy constitute a massive "bazooka" stimulus. AdvertisementMost say the monetary easing policies don't address the lack of confidence contributing to depressed consumer spending. China has pulled out multiple support measures this year to shore up its economy and stock markets, but any kneejerk optimism has been shortlived. Advertisement"Overall, we feel today's measures are a step in the right direction, especially as multiple measures have been announced together rather than spacing out individual piecemeal measures to a more limited effect," Lynn Song, the Greater China chief economist at ING bank, wrote on Tuesday.
Persons: , Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Betty Wang, Wang, it's, Nomura, Lynn Song Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Business, Analysts, Oxford Economics, CSI, Nomura, ING Locations: Beijing, China, Greater China
Read previewA major maritime workers strike is looming, and it could mean a shutdown of key goods — from cars to food — across the East and Gulf Coasts. AdvertisementA strike would have widespread implications across the US, with significant shipment delays that could set off a chain reaction of disruptions. Advertisement"We are coordinating with partners across the supply chain to prepare for any potential impacts," Steve Burns, a PANYNJ spokesperson, told BI. She referred to estimates from Sea-Intelligence, which predicted that a strike would prevent 74,000 shipping containers from being unloaded each day. "Throughout the pandemic, Longshore workers never took a day off," ILA Executive Vice President Dennis Daggett said on September 20.
Persons: , Harold Daggett, Abe Eshkenazi, USMX, Mia Ginter, Robinson, Ginter, Bethann Rooney, Jonathan Gold, Mitre, Steve Burns, Grace Zwemmer, Biden, Dennis Daggett Organizations: Service, Gulf Coasts, Longshoreman's Association, Business, ILA, Association for Supply Chain Management, National Association of Manufacturers, United States Maritime Alliance, Port Authority of New, National Retail, New Jersey, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Oxford Economics, Intelligence Locations: East, Gulf, Gulf Coast, East Coast, Port Authority of New York, New Jersey, West Coast, New York, New, Houston
They're just a few of the destinations trying to lure away the U.K.'s uber wealthy ahead of proposed changes to the country's divisive non-dom tax regime. They will also be prevented from avoiding inheritance tax on assets held in trust. The majority (83%) cited inheritance tax on their worldwide assets as their key motivator for leaving, while 65% also referenced changes to income and capital gains tax. Where the wealthy are movingIt comes as other countries are shaking up their tax regimes to incentivize wealthy investors. Ultra-wealthy U.K. citizens, who are typically highly active in the super-prime market, are also in "wait and see" mode ahead of possible changes to capital gains and inheritance tax.
Persons: Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Macleod, Miller, they'll, Leslie Macleod, Helena Moyas de Forton, Moyas de Forton, Labour's, Alexander Spatari, I'm, Marcus Meijer, Mark, CNBC's, it's, James Myers, Oliver James, Myers, Knight Frank, Stuart Bailey, Knight Frank's, they're, Bailey Organizations: Old Bond, Pawel, Bank, Getty, Labour, Oxford Economics, Conservative, Investors, Britain, CNBC, Treasury, EMEA, Christie's, Estate, Henley & Partners, Monaco, London, Istock Locations: Old, Mayfair, London, United Kingdom, Monaco, Italy, Switzerland, Dubai, They're, Britain, Greece, Malta, Caribbean, Bahamas, Monte Carlo, Gibraltar, South Kensington, England
Wall Street got the big rate cut it wanted, but markets failed to sustain a rally. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its key overnight lending rate by a half percentage point . Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the half-point cut suggests slowing growth is increasingly concerning Fed policy makers. "The Fed is likely worried that labor demand would weaken more, causing additional stress points in the labor market." "A larger cut probably was not needed out of the gate, but that should support risk-on asset allocation."
Persons: Ryan Sweet, Sweet, Nancy Tengler, Tengler, Scott Helfstein, Jeff Cox, Michelle Fox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Fed, Global
Economists have long called for an overhaul of the nation's retirement age laws, currently among the world's lowest, which was set in an era of lower life expectancies. Raising the retirement age would help ease local governments' pension pool cash crunch, Sheana Yue, an economist from Oxford Economics said. Still, "more needs to be done to improve retirement adequacy," Maybank's Tay said, while stating that China needs a stronger pension plan and diversified investment avenues to ensure sustainable retirement savings. China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has added a few tools for citizens to check their indicated retirement age on its website and mobile app. China may roll out "another round of delay in the late 2030s, especially if China's pension fund balance is tight," Xu cautioned.
Persons: Erica Tay, Tay, Bruce Pang, Tianchen Xu, Xu, Yue, Maybank's Tay Organizations: Getty, Maybank Investment Banking Group, CNBC, Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Economics, Academy of Social Sciences, China's Ministry of Human Resources, Social Security Locations: Fuyang, China, JLL, Beijing
HAIKOU, CHINA - SEPTEMBER 08: Passengers wait in line to check in at Haikou Meilan International Airport on September 8, 2024 in Haikou, Hainan Province of China. (Photo by Luo Yunfei/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images)Chinese travelers are taking more last-minute trips as they become more cautious with spending amid a lackluster economic recovery. Travelers are planning trips closer to departure as they try to "take advantage of last-minute deals," economists at Oxford Economics told CNBC, noting a shift in consumer preferences where "modern travelers prefer spontaneity in their travel plans." Chinese consumers have become more frugal on everything, from groceries to travel, as the world's second-largest economy grapples with a protracted property crisis and high unemployment. "While people still want to go on holiday, sentiment regarding incomes and consumption remains low," according to economists at Oxford Economics.
Persons: Luo Yunfei, Anthony Caputano, Patrick Body Organizations: China News Service, Getty Images, Marriott International, Bank of America, Lodging Conference, Oxford Economics, CNBC, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business Locations: HAIKOU, CHINA, Haikou, Hainan Province, China
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