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A queue of people forms outside a money changer (L) as people wait to buy and sell the Japanese yen against foreign currency, along a street in central Tokyo on April 29, 2024. In the past, weakness in the Japanese currency has been attributed to the difference between the U.S. and Japanese interest rates as lower rates tend to pressure currencies, while higher rates lift them up. Japan had negative rates for about eight years, keeping it's currency weak compared to the dollar. The Japanese yen is hovering near three-month lows against the U.S. dollar, after hitting 153.18 late Wednesday. "The annualised 1-month deposit rate for yen is +0.03%, while it is 4.76% for the U.S. dollar.
Persons: Alvin Tan, Homin Lee, Lombard Odier, Donald Trump, Lee, RBC's Tan, Hugh Chung Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Swiss, U.S
The dollar clung to seven-week highs against major currencies on Tuesday as investors ponder the outlook for U.S. rates after a strong jobs report last week dashed bets for large rate cuts, while escalating tensions in Middle East dented risk sentiment. Traders have drastically shifted their monetary easing expectations from the Federal Reserve this year. That has kept the dollar on the front foot and surging to a multi-week high against the euro, sterling and the yen. The New Zealand dollar was 0.3% higher at $0.6144 ahead of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll last week said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rate by 50 basis points.
Persons: Kieran Williams, Louis, Alberto Musalem, Shigeru Ishiba Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asia FX, InTouch, Reserve Bank of St, Treasury, Bank of, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Middle East, Asia, China, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Yen dives as BOJ plays down chance of hikes, soothing markets
  + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. The yen dropped on Wednesday after an influential Bank of Japan official played down the chances of a near-term rate hike, soothing investors' concerns that a further jump in the Japanese currency could again rock global markets. The yen fell around 2.5% to a session low of 147.94 per dollar following the comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida. "I think it's become increasingly clear that the BOJ hawkish turn last week could be a policy error," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The yen's decline was broad based, with the Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar - all carry trade candidates - surging against the currency.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, it's, Alvin Tan, inching, Rong Ren Goh Organizations: Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, U.S, Eastspring Investments, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Japan, Asia
Economists polled by Reuters expect headline consumer price inflation to ease to 0.1% from 0.3% last month, and core price inflation to remain steady on the month at 0.3%. Powell is likely to strike a relatively dovish tone at the press conference, however, given disappointing growth indicators since the last Fed meeting, Williams said. Japanese wholesale prices rose 2.4% in the year to May, Bank of Japan data showed on Wednesday, beating market forecasts for a 2% increase. The yen held steady at 157.16 per greenback after slipping to its lowest since June 3 at 157.40 the previous day. While Japan's central bank will likely discuss bond buying cuts to pre-empt yen selling pressure, dollar/volatility this week largely depend on Wednesday's U.S. CPI and Fed meeting, he added.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Kieran Williams, Powell, Williams, Emmanuel Macron's, Sterling, Wei Liang Chang, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Consumer, Fed, Reuters, Asia FX, InTouch, Bank of Japan, Bank of, DBS, CPI Locations: Czech, U.S, Asia, Bank of Japan
HSBC discusses prospects of yen intervention
  + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHSBC discusses prospects of yen interventionJoey Chew, HSBC's head of Asia FX Research, discusses the outlook for the currency and monetary policy.
Persons: Joey Chew Organizations: HSBC, Asia FX Research
Dollar steady, yen fragile after Fed comments dash rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The comments follow a slew of data in recent weeks that highlight the strength of U.S. economy along with persistent inflation. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was last at 106.33, just below the five month peak of 106.51 touched on Tuesday. I'm watching dollar strength and U.S. real yields very closely." On Wednesday, the yen was last at 154.65 per dollar, having touched the 34-year low of 154.79 in the previous session. The Australian dollar rose 0.12% to $0.641, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.22 to $0.589.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Powell's, " Powell, Ben Bennett, Kieran Williams, InTouch Capital's Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Traders, Investment Management, Asia FX, InTouch, CPI, New Zealand Locations: Washington, Asia, JPY, Japan
Markets kept their cool on Monday amid a fast-moving and volatile geopolitical landscape in the Middle East — but the longer-term risk premium has likely risen, while oil prices remain on edge, analysts said. Iran said it was acting in self-defense in response to a strike on its diplomatic compound in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month. By Monday, global players including the U.S. and European leaders were seeking to cool tensions, urging Israel to show restraint in its response. Sinha nevertheless added that "the fact that we moved from a proxy confrontation to a direct confrontation, even though that de-escalates in the near term, the longer term risk premium probably goes up." "I think the FX market ultimately will take its cue from oil prices because ultimately, that's the channel through which it spills over to the FX market," he said.
Persons: Adarsh Sinha, CNBC's, Sinha Organizations: U.S . Energy Information Administration, U.S, Asia FX, Bank of America, Iranian, FX Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Syria, Strait, Hormuz, Tehran, Asia, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe foreign exchange market will ultimately take its cue from oil prices, BofA strategist saysAdarsh Sinha, co-head of Asia FX and rates strategy at Bank of America, discusses geopolitical tensions and says "even though we're pricing in near-term de-escalation, the longer-term geopolitical risk premium probably has to go up."
Persons: Adarsh Sinha Organizations: Asia FX, Bank of America Locations: Asia
Dollar steady as traders weigh economic data, yen fragile
  + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar was steady on Friday, on track for its fifth straight weekly gain, as investors take stock of economic data and firm expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June, while the yen traded at the psychologically key 150 per dollar level. But overall market expectations on the timing of the first Fed cut and magnitude of the cut will continue to drive volatility in FX markets." "We will likely soon contemplate the appropriate time for monetary policy to become less restrictive," Bostic said. Investor focus has been on comments from policymakers, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell due to give the Senate banking committee its biannual monetary policy update on March 7. The Australian dollar eased 0.20% to $0.651, while the New Zealand dollar is down 0.21% to $0.609.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Jerome Powell, pare, Kieran Williams, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, PPI, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal, Asia FX, InTouch, Markets, New Zealand Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Singapore, U.S, Japan, Asia, Germany
Dollar treads water ahead of U.S. GDP; ECB meeting in spotlight
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Traders have been consolidating positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. The report is, however, likely to show that the U.S. avoided a recession in 2023 and is expected to show moderating inflation in the last quarter, stoking expectations of rate cuts sometime in the first half of 2024. Other U.S. data this week includes the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data - on Friday. The move from the central bank comes after a Bloomberg report earlier this week of a rescue package worth $278 billion to help stabilise the battered stock markets. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar struggled to sustain a China-inspired rally earlier this week.
Persons: Kieran Williams, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Central Bank, Traders, U.S, Asia FX, InTouch, ECB, Wednesday, Bloomberg, Australian, New Zealand, Aussie, Bank of, Bank of Japan Locations: Asia, U.S, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe don't expect the Fed to cut rates at all next year, RBC Capital Markets saysAlvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, says the U.S. economy is "gradually slowing down."
Persons: Alvin Tan Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Asia FX Locations: Asia, U.S
Middle East violence rattles markets, oil jumps
  + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
MARKET REACTION:- Oil prices surged, with Brent crude trading at $87.25 a barrel - up over 3% on the day. COMMENTS:MOHIT KUMAR, CHIEF EUROPE ECONOMIST, JEFFERIES, LONDON:“The coming days are likely to be driven by geopolitical risks, rather than fundamentals. “Second, OPEC countries do have spare capacity that they restrict willingly to maintain oil price at above $80 (per barrel), but they don’t necessarily think of tripling oil prices – which would only accelerate the energy transition. “This being said, potential retaliation against Tehran is a serious upside risk for oil prices. We will keep an eye on developments, but don’t speculate on a full-blast rise in oil prices for now.”
Persons: Mohammed Salem, Israel’s shekel, MOHIT KUMAR, JEFFERIES, , ” CHRIS BEAUCHAMP, Brent, WTI, CAROL KONG, JPY, ” MICHAEL HEWSON, ALVIN TAN, Blinken, , ” IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, Israel Organizations: Oil, REUTERS, Brent, U.S, Treasury, British Airways, LONDON, Russo, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF, CMC, U.S ., OF, OF ASIA FX, RBS, SWISSQUOTE BANK Locations: Israel, Gaza, Egypt, Yom, EUROPE, Iran, Ukrainian, SYDNEY, Asia, Japan, Straits, Hormuz, OF ASIA, ” “, GENEVA, OPEC, U.S, Tehran
Dollar rides Treasury yields higher, yen battered
  + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar traded near a 10-month high against its major peers on Wednesday as Treasury yields stayed elevated on the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates, while the yen stumbled towards a closely-watched intervention zone. "The U.S. dollar is stickier to the upside than the downside," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. The elevated U.S. yields have spelt trouble for the yen , which edged marginally higher to 149.01 per dollar, after having slipped to a 11-month low of 149.185 on Tuesday. The dollar/yen pair tends to be extremely sensitive to changes in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, particularly on the 10-year front. "Even if there were intervention, it won't drive dollar/yen down permanently unless bond yields start to retreat in earnest too."
Persons: Sterling, Tina Teng, Alvin Tan Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Treasury, U.S, CMC Markets, Fed, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, New Zealand Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Tuesday's
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The data comes on the heels of disappointing data from Europe, which showed that economic activity in France fell much more quickly than expected in September. Separate survey data covering the whole euro zone showed that the economy likely contracted in the third quarter. The yen dropped as low as 148.42 to the dollar, nearing the 150-mark at which analysts have said government intervention to prop up the currency is likely. BOJ maintains ultra-low interest ratesMeanwhile, sterling was 0.47% lower at $1.2237 after data showed that the UK economy slowed sharply in September and is likely on the brink of recession.
Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Brown, Michelle Bowman, Kazuo Ueda, we've, Alvin Tan, Shunichi Suzuki, BoE, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Harry Robertson, Rae Wee, Sharon Singleton, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, P Global, Federal, Trader, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, France, Asia, Tokyo, New York, London, Singapore
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The BOJ held interest rates at -0.1% on Friday and reiterated its pledge to keep supporting the economy until it's confident inflation will stay at the 2% target. "We have yet to foresee inflation stably and sustainably achieve our price target," BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in a press conference. The yen dropped as low as 148.42 to the dollar, nearing the 150-mark at which analysts have said government intervention to prop up the currency is likely. It was on track to eke out a weekly increase of around 0.2%, its 10th rise in as many weeks.
Persons: Florence Lo, Kazuo Ueda, we've, Alvin Tan, Shunichi Suzuki, RBC's Tan, Treasuries, Ray Sharma, Ong, Sterling, BoE, Harry Robertson, Rae Wee, Christopher Cushing, Sonali Paul, Christina Fincher Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Japan's Finance, Ministry, Finance, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, France, Asia, Tokyo, London, Singapore
REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/SINGAPORE, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hovered near a six-month high on Monday as traders looked ahead to interest rate decisions this week from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. the yen was up a similar amount at 147.69 to the dollar, with traders out for a Japanese public holiday. Traders were looking towards central bank decisions later in the week which could shake up the currency market. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold in the 5.25% to 5.5% range on Wednesday. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4% last week, but said this hike could be its last.
Persons: Lee Jae, Alvin Tan, RBC's Tan, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda's, Carol Kong, Ueda, Sterling, BoE, Harry Robertson, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln, Bernadette Baum, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Traders, Investors, Bank of, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Seoul, SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Europe, China, Bank of England, Ukraine, London, Singapore
In the broader currency market, the dollar stood firm, though moves were subdued as traders stayed on guard ahead of the closely-watched U.S. inflation reading out later on Wednesday. Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for August comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to decide on interest rate policy. While the central bank is largely expected to keep rates on hold at next week's meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, the Fed's next move in November remains more uncertain. "In recent months, European inflation, core inflation in particular, has fallen more slowly than expected. "The high inflation rate warrants another rate hike, but the economic indicators ... signal that a recession is imminent."
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kazuo Ueda, Alvin Tan, Ueda, Hiroshige Seko, Sterling, CME's, Tina Teng, Brigid Riley, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S, Wednesday's, Fed, CMC Markets, European Central Bank, Reuters, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Wednesday's U.S
Dollar steady as U.S. inflation data awaited, yen retraces gains
  + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
More broadly, the dollar held firm, though moves were subdued as traders awaited a closely watched U.S. inflation reading due later on Wednesday. Analysts attributed the slide to an unwinding of long dollar positions after a recent run of resilient U.S. economic data. Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index, or CPI, data for August comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to decide on interest rate policy. "In recent months, European inflation, core inflation in particular, has fallen more slowly than expected. "The high inflation rate warrants another rate hike, but the economic indicators ... signal that a recession is imminent."
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Alvin Tan, Ueda, Hiroshige Seko, Sterling, CME's, Tina Teng Organizations: Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, U.S, Fed, CMC Markets, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Rabobank Locations: U.S, Asia
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "It seems that Ueda's comments were intended to stop the yen's slide against the dollar," said Takehiko Masuzawa, trading head at Phillip Securities Japan. Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC, attributed the dollar's slide to traders "lightening up" on their long dollar positions ahead of the data. Against the weaker U.S. dollar, the Aussie and the New Zealand dollar were among the biggest beneficiaries, each rising more than 0.5%. The Australian dollar was last 0.6% higher at $0.64165, while the kiwi gained 0.52% to $0.5914.
Persons: Florence Lo, Kazuo Ueda stoked, Ueda, Takehiko, Sterling, Christopher Wong, Alvin Tan, Matt Simpson, Rae Wee, Junko Fujita, Sam Holmes, Christopher Cushing Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Yomiuri, Federal Reserve, Phillip Securities Japan, British, Fed, Treasury, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Index, Aussie, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Japan, Asia, United States, U.S, Singapore, Tokyo
A sheet of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. Ueda told the Yomiuri newspaper in an interview that the BOJ could have enough data by year-end to determine whether it can end negative rates. "Ueda is laying the foundations for an exit from negative interest rates, and he is giving plenty of notice," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. The dollar index , which capped last week with eight straight weeks of gains, its longest run since 2014, dipped slightly to 104.84. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, rose 0.29% to $0.6397, while the New Zealand dollar edged 0.28% higher to $0.5900.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda stoked, Ueda, Matt Simpson, Alvin Tan, Index's Simpson Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, Yomiuri, Federal Reserve, British, Sterling, Fed, U.S, Treasury, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, New Zealand Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia, United States
The dollar was headed for its longest weekly winning streak in nine years on Friday, bolstered by a resilient run of U.S. economic data that has also put the end of the Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle into question. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against its major peers, steadied at 105.02 in early trade, not far from the previous session's six-month high of 105.15. Sterling similarly languished near Thursday's three-month low and last bought $1.2484, set to clock a weekly loss of more than 0.8%. It is on track for a weekly loss of nearly 1% against the dollar, its worst week in about a month. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, was last 0.07% higher at $0.6381, but eyed a weekly loss of more than 1%.
Persons: Ray Attrill, Sterling, Alvin Tan Organizations: U.S, National Australia Bank . Data, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, New Zealand, of Japan's Locations: Asia, U.S, Germany, Europe's, Europe, Thursday's, United States
Coins and banknotes of China's yuan are seen in this illustration picture taken February 24, 2022. Tightening up offshore yuan liquidity could also act to stabilise the yuan, one of the sources said. Following the state bank move, the offshore yuan rallied and was last trading at around 7.2834 per dollar, up around 0.3% on the day. The cost of shorting the yuan jumped, the state bank sources told Reuters, as seen from sudden rises in offshore yuan tomorrow-next forward points . During London trade, offshore yuan forwards jumped across the board amid signs of yuan liquidity tightness, with several banking sources attributing the liquidity squeeze to the activity by banks.
Persons: Florence Lo, Masayuki Kichikawa, Alvin Tan, Kevin Buckland, Ed Osmond, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, greenback, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Reuters, People's Bank of China, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, UBS, Shanghai Newsroom, Thomson Locations: China, London, Asia, Tokyo
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The dollar hit a one-month high against a basket of major currencies, before steadying, as investors sought a safe haven on concerns about China's economy. Japan's currency weakened to as low as 145.22 per dollar in early Asian hours, its lowest since Nov. 10, before quickly reversing course in a volatile start to the week. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen. With the yen loitering around the 145 level again, traders expect Japanese officials to start warning of intervention soon as they did in June.
Persons: Yen, Dado Ruvic, Charu Chanana, Chris Turner, Russia's rouble, Sterling, Joey Chew, Ankur Banerjee, Harry Robertson, Shri Navaratnam, Lincoln, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Saxo Markets, International Trust Co, ING, Australian, Federal, Asia FX, HSBC, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, United States, China, U.S, Russian, Ukraine, Asia, Singapore, London
One source said regulators were emphatic banks should hold off dollar purchases under their proprietary trading accounts due to the "recent yuan depreciation". "The yuan exchange rate expectations are stable, and the foreign exchange market has the foundation to meet authentic and compliant FX needs," SAFE said in response to a Reuters query. Keeping non-urgent dollar demand at bay could relieve some of the immediate pressure on the yuan, the sources said. But that excitement soon faded, as domestic and foreign investors said they would wait for substantive action before putting more money into China. There was also a seasonal factor too, as overseas-listed Chinese companies usually need more foreign exchange in the summer to pay dividends to shareholders.
Persons: China's, Ken Cheung, Alvin Tan, Tan, Goldman Sachs, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: U.S ., People's Bank of China, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Reuters, Mizuho Bank, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Goldman, Overseas, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, Hong Kong, Asia, China, Shanghai, Beijing
On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 6.3% in the second quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the first three months of the year, but the rate was well below the forecast for growth of 7.3%. "The data suggests that China's post-COVID boom is clearly over," said Carol Kong, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. The latest data raises the risk of China missing its modest 5% growth target for 2023, some economists say. Authorities are likely to roll out more stimulus steps including fiscal spending to fund big-ticket infrastructure projects, more support for consumers and private firms, and some property policy easing, policy insiders and economists said. So I think this does raise greater urgency for more policy support soon."
Persons: Carol Kong, Alvin Tan, Harry Murphy Cruise, Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Analysts, Authorities, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, stoke, Moody’s, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Sydney, China, Asia, Singapore
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