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WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump’s consistent campaign pledge to impose sweeping tariffs on products imported into the U.S. is likely to face stiff challenges in court and potentially pushback from Congress. There are potential legal limits to Trump’s authority, even though he has said he would unilaterally impose the increases. But a broad array of tariffs on allies “could cross the line,” especially as the Supreme Court has taken a generally pro-business stance in recent years, he added. During the Biden administration, the Supreme Court embraced a theory called the “major questions doctrine.” Biden’s ambitious plan to wipe out billions of dollars in student debt was one of the proposals the Supreme Court faulted. The Supreme Court declined to take up the issue.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, he’s, Joe Biden, , Alan Morrison, , ” Morrison, , ” Trump, Ed Brzytwa, Brzytwa, Sen, Rand Paul, Rick Scott, ” Scott, Petros Mavroidis, , Jennifer Hillman, Hillman, Biden, Matt Priest, “ We’ll, ” Priest Organizations: WASHINGTON, China . Industry, George Washington University Law School, Chicago Economic Club, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Board, Consumer Technology Association, “ Consumers, CTA, Fox News, Sunday, Republicans, Columbia Law School, Georgetown Law Center, of International Trade, Trump, Appeals, Federal Circuit, Supreme, Federal Communications, Federal Energy Administration, Footwear Distributors, Retailers of America Locations: U.S, Congress, China, United States, Ky, Canada
To lower housing costs, Trump has said he would allow homes to be built on federally protected land, something that could help increase the supply of homes in places like Nevada and Arizona. TaxesTrump has proposed a number of tax cuts, including a complete elimination of the federal income tax. Those cuts lowered the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, reduced individual income tax rates, and increased the standard deduction. That could create havoc for workers and consumers and reduce the amount of income taxes the federal government brings in. About 40% of Social Security recipients pay federal income taxes, typically because they have other sources of income that raise them above a certain threshold where they are required to pay income tax, according to the Social Security Administration.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , ” Trump, , Decker, Matt Priest, , Priest, It’s, He’s, hasn’t, Immigration Trump, Jim Tobin, Trump’s Organizations: Trump, Chicago Economic, Companies, National Bureau of Economic Research, Footwear Distributors, Retailers, U.S, Federal Reserve, Immigration, Business, Pew Research Center, NBC News, National Association of Home Builders, NBC, University of New, University of Pennsylvania, Social Security, Social, Social Security Administration Locations: U.S, China, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, Saudi Arabia, Russia, University of New Hampshire
Defense firms are busy — but high inflation and interest rates past 20% have left them struggling. AdvertisementIn Russia's defense sector, demand is surging — but its companies are struggling all the same. Rising interest rates and export bans were eroding Russian defense companies' profits across the board, they said, making the Russian state the only guarantor of revenues. Sheremeta described the situation as a "death spiral," where war spending begets more inflation, which requires more war spending. "If some defense companies cannot fulfill their obligations, the Kremlin can simply nationalize them," Sheremeta said.
Persons: , Sergei Chemezov, Roman Sheremeta, Sheremeta, Daniel Treisman, Korhonen, Julian Cooper, Konstantin Sonin, Sonin Organizations: Service, Rostec, Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University, Bloomberg, University of California, National Bureau of Economic Research, Central Bank, Bank of Finland Institute, Emerging, Centre for Russian, East European Studies, University of Birmingham, University of Chicago Harris School of Public, Project Syndicate Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Los Angeles
AdvertisementWe're not in a recessionTo determine whether the economy is in recession, it helps to first define the term. Sure, the yearlong payrolls were adjusted down, but the story has largely been the same: This is a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Despite the 50-basis-point interest-rate cut by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed, there's evidence of additional slowing in the labor market. Since the rate cut, I've grown more confident that it will act in the face of weaker employment data. If the labor market deteriorates and the unemployment rate increases, we ought not to rule out another 50-basis-point move.
Persons: We're, , Jerome Powell, there's, Powell, Stocks Organizations: Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, Social Security, Conference Locations: America
Ever since 2022, when inflation hit a 40-year high of 9%, Americans have been pissed off about the economy. Traditionally, economists (being economists) have focused on the economic costs of inflation — i.e., are price increases wiping out everyone's annual raise? In a normal economy, the small raises companies give are enough to offset the minimal inflation we typically see. In a survey of 3,000 workers, researchers found that most — a whopping 79% — just accepted the salary they were offered. AdvertisementBut now, poring over the new study, I realize I overlooked the role inflation has played in reshaping the pandemic-era workplace.
Persons: Donald Trump, didn't, , I've, Will, we're, Aki Ito Organizations: Pew Research Center, National Bureau of Economic Research, Business Locations: American
Loop Images | Getty ImagesAt the nation's top schools, including many in the Ivy League, acceptance rates hover near all-time lows. For those willing to pay for a four-year, private college, it should be worthwhile, the sentiment often goes. To get into this elite group of schools, many families look for outside help to get a leg up. The vast majority of students come from New York City private schools with household incomes over $1,500,000 according to Howell's account. However, the wealthiest students hailing form the country's top private schools are primarily competing amongst themselves as schools look to build a diversified class.
Persons: Thomas Howell, Howell, Ivy League — Brown, Hafeez Lakhani, Lakhani, they've, Christopher Rim, Covid, Organizations: Ivy League, Princeton University, Forum Education, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, University of Pennsylvania, Yale, University of Chicago, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Stanford, Finance, Navy, Command, Rim, Command Education, Test, Christopher, Education, National Association for College, Counseling, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: York, Columbia, Princeton, Duke, New York, New York City
The US has played a key role in countering China in the South China Sea. They "want a Goldilocks situation in the South China Sea — not too hot, not too cold," he added. A China Coast Guard ship, at right, sails past the Philippine Coast Guard ship BRP Cape Engaño on August 26, 2024. AdvertisementASEAN held its annual summit in Laos this week, in part to discuss territorial tensions in the South China Sea. A Philippine Coast Guard vessel and a Chinese Coast Guard vessel during an incident in the South China Sea on August 19, 2024.
Persons: , Bill Hayton, Antony Blinken, Hunter Marston, Omar Zaghloul, Bush, Marston, George W, Obama, Trump, Biden, It's, Martson, Gregory B, Poling, Chatham House's, Samuel Paparo, Hayton, Sabina, REUTERS Poling, Mutual Defense Treaty, of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Organizations: US, Service, Chatham, South China, China Coast Guard, Philippine Coast Guard, BRP, ROSA, Getty, ASEAN, Southeast, Australian National University, Coral Bell School of Asia, Pacific Affairs, Anadolu Agency, Center for Strategic, Studies, Asia Program, Transparency Initiative, Pacific Command, US National Bureau of Economic Research, coastguard, Coast Guard, Chinese Coast Guard, REUTERS, Mutual Defense, CBS, of National Defense Locations: China, South China, Philippines, South, Asia, Chatham House's Asia, BRP Cape Engaño, AFP, Laos, Filipino, United States, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Brunei, Pacific, Chatham House's Hayton, Philippine, Taiwan, Hong Kong, West Philippine, Weibo, Handout, Poling, Ukraine
Immigrants expected to boost the economyThere are several reasons why immigrants largely benefit the economy and job market, economists said. Immigrants take jobs but they also create new ones by spending in local economies and by starting businesses, economists said. One 2020 research paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research found immigrants are 80% more likely to become entrepreneurs than native workers. To the extent there's job competition from new immigrants, it tends to fall mostly on prior immigrants rather than native U.S. workers, according to the National Academies paper. "Sudden surges of immigration obviously affect the ability of native workers to find and take jobs on a given afternoon," Clemens said.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Carlos Moreno, NurPhoto, Donald Trump's, Pew, Alexander Arnon, Michael Clemens, Clemens, Cohen, Giovanni Peri, it's, Peri, Arnon, Penn Wharton, Tim Chapman, George Borjas, Borjas —, , Mariel boatlift, Borjas, Stephen Miller, Trump, Anna Kelly, David Card, Joe Sohm Organizations: Juventud, Getty, Republican, Trump, Pew Research Center, Pew, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Immigrants, National Bureau of Economic Research, Congressional, Office, Congress, George Mason University, Penn Wharton Budget, Immigration, El, Bloomberg, U.S, Global Migration, University of California, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, National Academies, Florida Straits, Miami Herald, Harvard, Academies, Republican National Committee, America, Universal Locations: Tijuana , Mexico, Wilmington , North Carolina, U.S, El Chaparral, San Ysidro Port, Davis, Key West , Florida, Mariel, Florida, South Florida, Miami, USA, San Francisco
The truth about promotions
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Aki Ito | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +9 min
That was obviously a bad idea, and since then, we've spent a century and a half honing the art and science of promotions. To study promotions, the researchers conducted a series of clever experiments. But in other groups, managers were selected based on their own preferences. What did much better at predicting good managers was intelligence, as measured by a common IQ test. "Don't think, well, they like to talk, and therefore they're going to be a good manager."
Persons: we've, we're, David Deming, It's, Dunning, Kruger, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Deming, they'll, Aki Ito Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research, Employees, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard, Tech, Business Locations: America
Concerns about the use of cryptocurrencies for illegal activity resulted in an effective ban on crypto mining and transactions. After a massive public outcry at the end of 2021, mining companies in Kazakhstan were effectively cut off from the grid. Today, the US makes up about 40% of the global hashrate — up from 17% during China's 2021 peak — making America the biggest hub for bitcoin mining. However, in recent years, bitcoin mining has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of private companies. Given how much energy bitcoin mining consumes, it's worth questioning whether its presence in the US is really worth the trade-off.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Zoe Liu, hasn't, pushback, haven't, Jeremy Fisher, Fisher, Gladys Anderson, Kelley Sayre, Stephanie Marsh, Marsh, Gavin Newsom, would've, Donald Trump, Trump, Satoshi Nakamoto, Saifedean Ammous, Cheyanne Diehl, wasn't, Biden, Joe Biden, Liu Pengyu, America Organizations: Council, Foreign Relations, Mining, Cambridge, Goodyear, Sierra, Environmental, New York Times, Tech, Gov, Securities and Exchange Commission, July's Bitcoin, SEC, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, Nasdaq, Embassy, EV, Sierra Club, City Council, Digital Locations: China, Kazakhstan, America, Utah, West Virginia, Akron , Ohio, Rockdale , Texas, Murphy , North Carolina, Massillon , Ohio, Bono , Arkansas, Vilonia , Arkansas, Akron, California, Nashville, Massillon, Ohio, Chinese, Massillon's City, In Arkansas, Wyoming, Washington, Harrison , Arkansas
A few facts worth considering:By the time the 2009 revisions came out (824,000 jobs were overstated), the National Bureau of Economic Research had already declared a recession six months earlier. (It would subsequently be revised higher in the two of those quarters, one of which was revised higher to show growth, rather than contraction. As a signal that job growth has been overstated by an average of 68,000 per month during the revision period, it is more or less accurate. In the cutting process, the Fed will follow growth and jobs data more closely, just as it monitored inflation data more closely in the hiking process. The jobs data could be subject to noise from immigrant hiring and can be volatile.
Persons: payrolls, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Amerant, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida
Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." The last time that happened was early in 2020, when the economy came to an abrupt halt. Economists have wrestled with the growing disconnect between how the economy is doing and how people feel about their financial standing. We're in a 'vibecession'We're in a "vibecession," Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's chair of global research, said at the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit in May. "Everything looks great but when you look beneath the surface, the disparity between the wealthy and nonwealthy is widening dramatically."
Persons: Gene Goldman, Vishal Kapoor, Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's, that's, Chang, Goldman Organizations: Cetera Financial, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, Summit Locations: El Segundo , California
A paper found that the housing market's lock-in effect cost the US economy $20 billion over a year. High mortgage rates led to economic stagnation and reduced housing activity. Researchers estimated Americans who moved paid an extra $21 billion a month in mortgage payments. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementHigh mortgage rates cost the US economy billions of dollars last year.
Persons: , Jack Liebersohn, Jesse Rothstein Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic, Business
A weaker-than-expected July jobs report on Friday officially triggered the Sahm rule. "We are not in a recession now — contrary the historical signal from the Sahm rule — but the momentum is in that direction," Sahm told CNBC by email on Friday. That frankly is not good enough, we can do better than avoiding a recession," Sahm told CNBC's "The Exchange." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. In mid-June, Sahm told CNBC that the U.S. central bank risked tipping the economy into contraction by not cutting interest rates sooner.
Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, , we're, CNBC's, Dario Perkins, Perkins, Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik Organizations: Federal, CNBC, U.S . Federal, New Century Advisors, New, Lombard, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve, Getty, U.S Locations: U.S, Washington , DC
According to the New York Federal Reserve, which uses the 10-year/three-month curve, a recession should happen about 12 months later. The inversion is not aloneMaking the situation even more complicated is that the yield curve isn't the only indicator showing reason for caution about how long the post-Covid recovery can last. But the rate dynamics have helped companies escape what usually happens in an inverted curve. With an inverted curve hitting their net interest margins, banks may opt to lend less, causing a pullback in consumer spending that can lead to recession. This could provide something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for the yield curve.
Persons: Alex Kent, hasn't, , there's, it's, Mark Zandi, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, SMBC, Quincy Krosby, We've, Jim Paulsen, Paulsen, That's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's, New York Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities, Gross, National Bureau of Economic Research, Commerce Department, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: New York, SMBC Nikko, Wells Fargo
Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." But regardless of the country's economic standing, many Americans are struggling in the face of sky-high prices for everyday items, and most have exhausted their savings and are now leaning on credit cards to make ends meet. We're in a 'vibecession'Economists have wrestled with the growing disconnect between how the economy is doing and how people feel about their financial standing. We're in a "vibecession," Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's chair of global research, said at the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit in May. "If you're a homeowner or if you own financial assets, you've done very well, but you're leaving out huge segments of the population," Chang said.
Persons: Harris, Joyce Chang, JPMorgan's, Chang, that's Organizations: Guardian, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, Summit Locations: U.S
It's not an exaggeration to say going back to school changed Erin Vaughan's life. Advertisement"It is truly one of the hardest things I've ever done, but the most rewarding thing," Vaughan told Business Insider. AdvertisementShe's among a growing number of older adults who have decided to return to school later in life to give themselves another shot at higher education. On top of that, a report from Gallup and the Lumina Foundation on the state of higher education in 2024 found that "adults' interest in pursuing some form of higher education is at the highest level" the organizations ever recorded. The high cost of college is also a key factor as to why many Gen Zers have chosen to skip higher education altogether, instead choosing to pursue careers that do not require college degrees.
Persons: It's, Erin Vaughan's, Vaughan, , I've, she's, hasn't, doesn't, Xer, Zers Organizations: Service, Business, BI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Gallup, Lumina Foundation, Vaughan Locations: Los Angeles
These include insufficient money to pay for college right out of high school and, "especially for women, family constraints." "What happens when people have kids right after high school that would keep them from going to college? After graduating from high school, Jones briefly enrolled in some English courses at a university but dropped out, saying he didn't have a focused mindset at the time. I haven't dealt with who I am or where I am in life," Jones told BI. According to a recent report from Gallup and the Lumina Foundation on the state of higher education in 2024, "adults' interest in pursuing some form of higher education is at the highest level" the organizations ever recorded.
Persons: Laura Rodgers, Rodgers, she's, I'm, Laura Rodgers Rodgers, she'll, Pauline Corblet, New York University Abu Dhabi, Corblet, it's, Alexander Jones, Jones, wasn't, Alexander Jones Jones, didn't, Josh Becker, He's, Becker, Matt, Matt —, Organizations: Service, Business, National Center for Education Statistics, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York University, Deloitte, Gallup, Lumina Foundation Locations: New York University Abu
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNBER director John Lipsky breaks down economic data, forecasts Fed outlookJohn Lipsky, National Bureau of Economic Research director, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss his forecast for the Fed's rate cuts, economic data, and more.
Persons: John Lipsky Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research
Opinion | The Gender Pay Gap Is a Culture Problem
  + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Jessica Grose | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
American women made significant progress toward closing the gender pay gap in the second half of the 20th century, but that gap has barely budged over the past two decades. In 2022, according to Pew Research, “American women typically earned 82 cents for every dollar earned by men. While there are several factors at play, one of the key contributors to the gap is what’s known as the motherhood penalty and the corresponding fatherhood premium: Women’s pay decreases when they have children, while men’s pay increases. Somewhat surprisingly to me, his research, which builds on years of earlier scholarship, suggests that a country’s family policy has relatively little to do with how big the parenthood pay gap is. A society’s culture and norms seem to be much bigger factors in how big the motherhood penalty is: The more egalitarian the culture, the lower the gap.
Persons: don’t, , Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais, Gabriel Leite Organizations: Pew Research, of Economic Research
Neilson, 59, went into retail management after earning a general studies degree with a business concentration. "The money that I would like to be able to contribute to a retirement account is going to go instead to pay student loans." BI has previously spoken to some other older adults who have struggled with career progression later in life. For example, Crystal, a 62-year-old, never received a college degree, and it's kept her from progressing in the workforce. "With my age, I was just not attractive on paper, and not having a college degree was always a factor, too," Crystal said.
Persons: Kris Neilson's, Neilson, it'll, She'll, I'm, it's, Crystal Organizations: Service, BI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Gallup, Lumina Foundation Locations: Neilson
Biden’s tariff plan likely won’t move the needle for monetary policy, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Consumers and producers often pay higher prices when tariffs are implemented.”That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately, consumers. Worse, some businesses appeared to take advantage of the trade war by bumping up prices even higher. Container shipping imports from China to Mexico rocketed higher by 60% in January and 34% for the first quarter, Xeneta data shows. “It’s obvious that imports to this extent are not only for domestic purposes in Mexico,” he said.
Persons: Biden, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump’s, Trump, , Ryan Sweet, ” Sweet, Sweet, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Goldman Sachs, , Wells, Nicole Cervi, “ There’s, ” Cervi, Peter Sand, , Sand, “ It’s Organizations: CNN, RSM US, stoke, Oxford Economics, Biden, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Federal, , US International Trade Commission, New, New York Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Republican, ramped, Container Locations: China, New York, , South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Wells, Mexico
Businesses are adding $90 billion in fees to consumer's bills each year, according to one estimate. US consumers spend more than $650 a year per household on "junk fees," per the CEA. AdvertisementBusinesses are adding $90 billion in surprise "junk fees" to customers' bills each year — and it is starting to backfire. Junk fees are hidden costs that are added to product prices. Last June, President Joe Biden said his administration had taken steps to crack down on junk fees.
Persons: , Noelle Weaver, Bradley Walker, Walker, Merrilee Bridgeman, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, White House Council, Economic Advisers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Wall Street, Democratic Locations: New Orleans, Charlotte , North Carolina
Apple wants to give the iPad a boost
  + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
The tech giant's event will reportedly showcase a new family of… iPads and iPad accessories. But Apple's event , which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST, is looking to give the iPad a boost. iPhone sales have noticeably dipped, which is why you're hearing Apple tout its "services" business , writes BI's Peter Kafka. And the new product Apple wants you to be excited about — the Vision Pro — hasn't lived up to the hype. a16z joins the Big Tech "fake work" debate.
Persons: , Tyler Le, they're, iPads, Antonio Villas, Boas, BI's Peter Kafka, Peter, hasn't, Katie Notopoulos, Wall, Lauren DeCicca, Tim Cook, Katie, aren't, I'd, we'll, I'm, Alyssa Powell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, James Devaney, Roger Kisby, Jack Dorsey's, Elon, Dorsey, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, a16z, Emily Sundberg, Andreessen Horowitz, David Ulevitch, Vladimir Putin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Apple, Google, Getty, US Treasury, National Bureau of Economic Research, Images, Penske Media, Microsoft, Tech, Paramount, Berkshire, Big Tech, Walt Disney Company Locations: BREIT, New York, London
But some economists have argued that flawed historical economic data puts this claim in question. The further back you go — the NBER data goes to about 1850 — the more common recessions were. He said the NBER's pre-1914 recession data, in particular, is "very poor," and that only economic data collected after World War II is of good quality. "So the growing share of services also means you're going to have more stable economic growth." AdvertisementTo be sure, while a stable economy has its benefits, it's not the only indicator of a healthy economy.
Persons: , they'll, haven't, George Selgin, what's, NBER, Selgin, Joseph H, Davis, Satyam Panday, Panday, it's, they've Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cato Institute, of Labor Statistics didn't, US, Vanguard, US Department of Agriculture, Satyam, Federal Reserve, Fed
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