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☆ How America's Economy Managed to Avoid Recession, Job Market Disaster
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

AdvertisementWe're not in a recessionTo determine whether the economy is in recession, it helps to first define the term. Sure, the yearlong payrolls were adjusted down, but the story has largely been the same: This is a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Despite the 50-basis-point interest-rate cut by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed, there's evidence of additional slowing in the labor market. Since the rate cut, I've grown more confident that it will act in the face of weaker employment data. If the labor market deteriorates and the unemployment rate increases, we ought not to rule out another 50-basis-point move.

Persons: We're, —, Jerome Powell, there's, Powell, Stocks Organizations: Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, Social Security, Conference Locations: America

☆ NBER director John Lipsky breaks down economic data, forecasts Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNBER director John Lipsky breaks down economic data, forecasts Fed outlookJohn Lipsky, National Bureau of Economic Research director, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss his forecast for the Fed's rate cuts, economic data, and more.

Persons: John Lipsky Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research

☆ What Biden’s tariffs on Chinese imports may mean for American jobs, the economy and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Biden’s tariff plan likely won’t move the needle for monetary policy, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics. “Consumers and producers often pay higher prices when tariffs are implemented.”That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately, consumers. Worse, some businesses appeared to take advantage of the trade war by bumping up prices even higher. Container shipping imports from China to Mexico rocketed higher by 60% in January and 34% for the first quarter, Xeneta data shows. “It’s obvious that imports to this extent are not only for domestic purposes in Mexico,” he said.

Persons: Biden, Joe Brusuelas, Donald Trump’s, Trump, —, Ryan Sweet, ” Sweet, Sweet, George W, Bush, Barack Obama, Goldman Sachs, ”, Wells, Nicole Cervi, “ There’s, ” Cervi, Peter Sand, “, Sand, “ It’s Organizations: CNN, RSM US, stoke, Oxford Economics, Biden, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Federal, “, US International Trade Commission, New, New York Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Republican, ramped, Container Locations: China, New York, “, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Wells, Mexico

☆ A lesser-known recession indicator with a perfect track record over the last 11 downturns just signaled that trouble is coming. Here's when a recession could arrive — and why stocks are still safe for
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A Piper Sandler recession indicator says an economic downturn could be here. This indicator typically precedes official NBER recession announcements by about four months. But Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says stocks should still rise in the near-term. Popular recession indicators like the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index have been signaling for over a year now that a downturn is ahead. Last week, a lesser-known gauge — with just as impressive a track record — joined their ranks in warning of trouble ahead for the US economy.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, —, Piper Organizations: Conference, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business

☆ Has the US cracked the code on avoiding recessions? It would be great news for your job security and stock portfolio.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

But some economists have argued that flawed historical economic data puts this claim in question. The further back you go — the NBER data goes to about 1850 — the more common recessions were. He said the NBER's pre-1914 recession data, in particular, is "very poor," and that only economic data collected after World War II is of good quality. "So the growing share of services also means you're going to have more stable economic growth." AdvertisementTo be sure, while a stable economy has its benefits, it's not the only indicator of a healthy economy.

Persons: —, they'll, haven't, George Selgin, what's, NBER, Selgin, Joseph H, Davis, Satyam Panday, Panday, it's, they've Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cato Institute, of Labor Statistics didn't, US, Vanguard, US Department of Agriculture, Satyam, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Oldest siblings tend to make more money. Researchers have a new theory that explains why.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

An NBER working paper found that older siblings tend to make more money than their younger siblings. AdvertisementFor years, researchers have found that the eldest child tends to earn more money and perform better on cognitive tests than their younger siblings. AdvertisementOther reasons first-born siblings might have an advantageDayal told BI that studies across various countries and contexts have corroborated the idea that older siblings tend to have more education and economic success than their younger siblings. "Interestingly, these benefits start to emerge around age 12, when older siblings have more to teach and younger siblings are more ready to learn." AdvertisementGrant cited a study of 240,000 Norwegian teenagers that found younger siblings who had firstborn siblings die in infancy went on to have higher intelligence scores than laterborns with firstborn siblings.

Persons: —, Meltem, Daysal, Younger, Dayal, Sandra Black, Columbia University who's, Adam Grant's, Grant Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Columbia University Locations: Denmark

☆ People love hanging out with friends who they think make less than them
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

People who believe they have a higher income than their peers are more likely to socialize. AdvertisementPeople who think they have a higher income than their peers are more likely to socialize with them, contributing to greater happiness, new research found. A February NBER working paper found that those with higher perceived relative income increased their time spent with peers. Despite some uncertainty, some evidence suggests those with a higher relative income become more engaged in sports and community events. Changes in spending following from changes in perceived relative income could also drive changes in happiness."

Persons: —, Bernardo Candia Gonzalez, causally, they're Organizations: Service Locations: Netherlands

☆ Japan and the UK are in recessions. Is the US next?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions. On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.

Persons: Paul Donovan, ” Donovan, Kazuhiro Nogi, ”, didn’t, Jerome Powell, “, it’s, there’s, Powell, Philipp Carlsson, doesn’t, “ it’s, Carlsson Organizations: New, New York CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management, Getty, National Bureau of Economic Research, don’t, US Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting Locations: New York, Japan, Germany, AFP, Ukraine

☆ The US now has an 85% chance of recession in 2024, the highest probability since the Great Financial Crisis, economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

There's an 85% chance the US economy will enter a recession in 2024, according to economist David Rosenberg. Rosenberg highlighted a relatively new economic model that has proven to be more timely than the yield curve indicator. "Our conviction that the recession has been delayed but not derailed is still running at a high level," Rosenberg said. AdvertisementA recession is likely to hit the US economy in 2024, according to a new economic model highlighted by economist David Rosenberg. Advertisement"Our conviction that the recession has been delayed but not derailed is still running at a high level," Rosenberg said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg

☆ Recession risks are 'now more politics and geopolitics than economics,' says NBER's Lipsky
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession risks are 'now more politics and geopolitics than economics,' says NBER's LipskyJohn Lipsky, director-at-large at the National Bureau of Economic Research, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the week's economic data, how Lipsky considers the geopolitical climate, and more.

Persons: NBER's Lipsky John Lipsky, Lipsky Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research

☆ Commercial mortgage lending to jump 29% in 2024 after slowest year in a decade, Mortgage Bankers Association says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Commercial mortgage borrowing will rise 29% this year, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates. AdvertisementCommercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is forecast to surge 29% from last year's estimated total of $444 billion, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates. "2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade," MBA Head of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell said in the report. AdvertisementTighter monetary policy since 2022 has pushed up borrowing costs across the commercial real estate market, and resulted in stricter lending standards among mortgage originators. Raichura expects prices to drop off another 10% this year, while a December outlook from NBER outlined that total commercial real estate losses could amount to $160 billion.

Persons: —, Jamie Woodwell, Kiran Raichura, Woodwell Organizations: Mortgage, Association, Service, Real, Federal Reserve

☆ This year could be the breaking point for commercial real estate distress, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewThis year will be when the distress brewing in commercial real estate finally reaches its breaking point, according to Capital Economics. The research firm pointed to pessimism that has clouded the commercial real estate sector for the past year. Around $541 billion of commercial real estate debt officially matured in 2023, though fallout was muted as many loans were granted extensions, the firm said. Meanwhile, property investors like Brookfield are raising cash to potentially buy cheap commercial real estate properties that hit the market. AdvertisementSome commentators have warned of an even more severe crash coming for commercial real estate.

Persons: —, Kiran Raichura, Raichura, Kyle Bass Organizations: Service, Capital Economics, Business, Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Brookfield

☆ The economy's performance post-COVID has been 'rather unique', says NBER's John Lipsky
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy's performance post-COVID has been 'rather unique', says NBER's John LipskyJohn Lipsky, NBER director, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk Fed Chair Powell's recent comments, recent economic data readings, what to expect from the economy in the coming months and more.

Persons: NBER's John Lipsky John Lipsky

☆ College jocks earn as much as $220,000 more than their less sporty peers over their career, study shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

College jocks actually become more successful and wealthy than their nerdy peers, a new study finds. Turns out, sporty students earn 3.4% more in their lifetimes and bring home $220,000 more in wages. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The study found that college athletes earned 3.4% more over their careers than non-athletic students and are likely to bring home $220,000 more in cumulative wages, the report said. College athletes were even more likely to be endorsed for management, leadership, and strategic planning skills on LinkedIn, per the study.

Persons: —, NBER, –, They're, Walter Robb, Brian Moynihan, Meg Whitman, Andy Jassy, Jassy, There's, there's Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research, Ivy League, Service, College, LinkedIn, Stanford University's, Bank of America, Brown University, Hewlett, Packard, Princeton University

☆ Tech was supposed to take everyone's job. We're still working. What happened?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Matt Turner | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The ATM was supposed to wipe out bank tellers. And yet, here we are in 2023, with unemployment in the US at 3.8%, and an estimated 9.6 million jobs available. Tech typically creates more jobs overallSimply put, technology creates more jobs than it takes away. For example, there were fears that the advent of ATMs would put bank tellers out of work. And sure enough, a few years after the adoption of the ATM, there were fewer bank tellers per branch.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, David Autor, who's, Banks, James Bessen, Here's Morgan Stanley, Uber, Carl Benedikt Frey, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson Organizations: Service, Tech, Microsoft, Microsoft Excel, National Association of Economic Research, London, Oxford Martin School Locations: London, Hollywood

☆ How to Prepare Every Part of Your Life for a Recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Tanza Loudenback | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +13 min

But a recession brings other threats too, like the potential for major stock market swings that can derail financial goals. As soon as the line begins to tick upward again, the economy exits a recession and enters an expansion. Are we in a recession or is a recession coming? How to preparePreparing your finances for a recession isn’t all that different from practicing good money habits in your daily life. You’ll likely have to make some real-time adjustments to meet short-term goals while enduring a recession, McCoy says.

Persons: Loudenback, it’s, ”, Ross Hamilton, Raymond James, you’ve, Hamilton, aren’t, “ You’ve, Eric Roberge, ” Roberge, Megan McCoy, “, ’ ”, McCoy, You’ll, ” Hamilton, you’re, “ There’s, there’s, ” McCoy, Roberge, ‘ I’ve Organizations: Wall Street, National Bureau of Economic Research, Kansas State University Locations: U.S, Bethesda, Md, Boston, Hamilton

☆ Here are three things we're watching in the markets in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Softbank-owned chip designer's return to the public markets — the largest initial public offering since 2021 — was the highlight of the week. Those are the three things that we'll be focusing on in the week ahead. While struggling to snap back after Covid, China this week reported better-than-expected industrial output and stronger retail sales, signaling that things may be looking up. The United Auto Workers strike against Detroit's three biggest automakers will continue in the week ahead, barring a labor deal. ET: Fed Governor Lisa Cook is set to deliver the keynote address at the NBER's Economics of Artificial Intelligence Conference in Toronto, Canada.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell's, Jim Cramer, it's, Jim Farley, Stanley Black, Decker, Eli Lilly, Jerome Powell, Mills, Lisa Cook, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan McDermid Brendan Mcdermid Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal, United Auto Workers, automakers, Fed, West Texas, Saudi, Coterra Energy, Natural Resources, Detroit's, UAW, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, CNBC, Stanley, Housing, Apogee Enterprise, FedEx, KB, Darden, NBER's, Artificial Intelligence, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS Locations: U.S, Covid, China, WTI, Toronto, Canada, New York City

☆ Economist David Rosenberg says a recession will hit in 6 months. Here are his 7 best quotes from a new interview.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Top economist David Rosenberg expects a US recession to hit within 6 months. The Fed's 11 interest rate hikes amount to one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns ever, and to the economist, that doesn't bode well for the coming months. "We've had the biggest interest rate shock since 1981, if I'm not mistaken. "Most of these recessions [since World War II] were not caused by a fiscal shock, but interest rate shocks. "We've had a massive interest rate shock, we haven't seen the full impact yet.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Blockworks, Blockwork's Jack Farley, doesn't bode, We've, I'm, impact's, we're, it's Organizations: Morning, Rosenberg Research, Associates, Fed Locations: China, Federal, happenstance

☆ Ahead of two key inflation reports, what would a soft landing look like exactly?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But aside from simply skirting a recession, it’s not obvious what the economy would look like in a soft landing. And who even declares that the Fed has officially defied the odds and achieved a soft landing? The main aspect of a soft landing, according to economists, is the absence of a recession, which is determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER.) In a soft landing, the job market has to remain intact. The other key feature of a soft landing is for the Fed to successfully control inflation, but that’s open to some interpretation.

Persons: we’ve, ”, Kayla Bruun, “, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, Josh Markman, cooldown, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Armour, Ralph Lauren Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Morning, Atlanta, ZipRecruiter, Labor, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, “, Tyson Foods, UPS, Fox, Restaurant Brands, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Commerce Department, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Disney, US Labor Department, National Statistics, University of Michigan Locations: Washington

☆ New research finds that fully remote workers are less productive than their in-office counterparts
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A new study looks at the productivity of remote workers versus those in-office. It showed that productivity dropped by 18% among a group of workers randomly assigned to WFH. More employers are pushing for workers to return to the office in a hybrid role or full-time. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Meanwhile, JPMorgan kickstarted a trend across Wall Street to instill a back-to-office mandate for its managing directors.

Persons: Michael Bloomberg Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Workers, McKinsey, Pew Research, NYC, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Locations: Wall, Silicon, Chennai

☆ NBER Chair John Lipsky: There's good reason to believe inflation will moderate without Fed action
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNBER Chair John Lipsky: There's good reason to believe inflation will moderate without Fed actionJohn Lipsky, National Bureau of Economic Research chair, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Lipsky's inflation optimism, what prices will begin to fall with the higher cost of capital, and more.

Persons: John Lipsky Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research

☆ '4chan for economists' is melting down as racist, sexist anonymous posts are linked to Harvard, Yale, and other top institutions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Kate Taylor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

A new study links anonymous posts on "4chan for economists" to IP addresses at Harvard, Yale, and other top schools. Other snippets of posts with IP addresses at Harvard, Stanford, Yale, University of Chicago, and the National Bureau of Economic Research headquarters include: "Rapefugees Welcome!!!!! Other snippets of posts with IP addresses at Harvard, Stanford, Yale, University of Chicago, and the National Bureau of Economic Research headquarters include: "Rapefugees Welcome!!!!! Notre Dame IP addresses made up 3.4% of posts from a research-institution IP address. According to Ederer, it took just 15 minutes to figure out how to connect usernames with IP addresses.

Persons: Anya Samek, Samek, EJMR, Boston University's Florian Ederer, Yale's Paul Goldsmith, Pinkham, Kyle Jensen, Ederer, Christina Romer, Scott Cunningham, Rob Seamans, Merkel, bubba, Trevon Logan, that's, She's Organizations: Harvard, Yale, North American Economic Science Association Conference, University of Chicago, undergrad, National Bureau of Economic Research, American Economics Association, Baylor, Marvel, Stanford, University of Notre Dame, Columbia, Notre Dame, Ohio State University, UMass Amherst, University of California Locations: Tucson , Arizona, Cambridge , Massachusetts, Ederer, Erdogan's Turkey, troon, Samek, San Diego

☆ The 10 best U.S. cities for digital nomads—New York and Los Angeles didn't make the cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Morgan Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Columbus, Ohio was named the top city for digital nomads in the United States, while Fort Lauderdale ranked last. Portland, Houston and Chicago have topped several lists highlighting the best cities for digital nomads, namely for having low housing costs and a high share of remote jobs that pay $100,000 per year or more. New York and Los Angeles, meanwhile, didn't even crack the top 20 best cities for digital nomads. 24, while New York City ranks No. The remote job market is shrinking in some cities, but flourishing in others.

Persons: Zumper, Louis, Covid — Organizations: Fort Lauderdale, Columbus , Ohio Portland , Oregon Kansas City , Missouri Houston St, Louis Chicago Cincinnati San, Louis Chicago Cincinnati San Antonio Detroit Denver Analysts, New York City, U.S . National Bureau of Economic Research, San Francisco Locations: U.S, California, Florida, Midwest, Zumper, Columbus , Ohio, United States, Columbus , Ohio Portland , Oregon Kansas City , Missouri Houston, Louis Chicago Cincinnati San Antonio, Kansas City, Cincinnati, St, Portland, Houston, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Washington, San Francisco, York

☆ 5 ways AI could change your job, including making it more interesting and helping to convince your boss to let your work from home
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Insider asked several experts in AI, economics, and remote work about the multitude of ways Americans' working lives could be impacted by AI moving forward. AI could eliminate some jobs and boost competition for those that remainGenerative AI technologies like ChatGPT will likely create some jobs and replace others. But for companies with leadership that has this concern, AI productivity gains could help them forget about some of their remote work "productivity paranoia" — a factor that in theory, could help remote work persist at some businesses. "So I think the biggest AI impact will be a ton of fully remote jobs like data-entry, payroll etc going to AI." Added Frey: "Any technology that increases productivity, ChatGPT included, makes a shorter workweek more feasible."

Persons: —, there's, Goldman Sachs, Mark Muro, Carl Benedikt Frey, coders, Frey, Oded, Muro, Nick Bloom, Columbia's Netzer, Michael Chui Organizations: Service, Brookings Institution, Columbia Business School, Workers, Microsoft, New York Fed, Companies, Stanford, McKinsey Global Institute Locations: Oxford

☆ The S&P 500 has entered a bull market, but will it last? Here's what 5 Wall Street experts are saying about the stock market's big rally.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 has pushed its way into a new bull market, but experts are torn over whether the rally can last. Though he previously predicted a 15% increase for the S&P 500, he's turned more bearish on the market as recession odds increase. Goldman SachsThe hype for AI is real and could lead the S&P 500 to climb higher this year, Goldman Sachs said. That could take the S&P 500 as much as 14% higher in the coming years, strategists said. The S&P 500 could end the year at 4,500, strategists predicted, implying around a 5% upside from current levels and a gain of about 17% for the full year.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, That's, Steve Marcus, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, he's, Bloomberg Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Cindy Ord, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, New York Fed, Rosenberg Research, Wharton School, Bloomberg, Corporations, Getty, CNBC

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