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Oil prices fall on China concerns, skepticism on OPEC+ cuts
  + stars: | 2023-12-06 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
An aerial view of a crude oil storage facility is seen on May 4, 2020 in Cushing, Oklahoma. Oil prices fell in Wednesday Asian morning trading as markets continue to doubt the impact of OPEC+ cuts and take cues from a worsening demand outlook in China. U.S. WTI crude futures were down 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $72.19 a barrel. China will release preliminary trade data, including crude oil import data, on Thursday. Gasoline stockpiles gained by 2.8 million barrels, while distillate inventories rose nearly 1.9 million barrels.
Persons: Alexander Novak, Vladimir Putin, Moody's Organizations: Brent, Organization of, Petroleum, United Arab Emirates, American Petroleum Institute Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, China, Russia, OPEC, Saudi, Russian, Saudi Arabia, U.S
Dollar steady as traders weigh labour data, rate outlook
  + stars: | 2023-12-06 | by ( )   time to read: +3 min
The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was 0.019% higher at 103.99, having climbed 0.3% overnight. Data also showed there were 1.34 vacancies for every unemployed person in October, the lowest since August 2021. "This week the highlight is payrolls (report)," OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong said, adding that a downside surprise could see dollar rebound stall. Investors believe the European Central Bank could deliver its first rate cut by March. Inflation across the euro zone has fallen more quickly than most anticipated, as evidenced by last Thursday's consumer price data.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Jerome Powell, Sterling, bitcoin, Organizations: Reserve, Traders, ANZ, Fed, Investors, European Central Bank Locations: U.S
Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesMin Li doesn't go to the mall often. The name of the game for Chinese youth in 2024 is trading down. Anything not in the basement floors is considered to be "in heaven," signaling it's out of reach. Citizens shopping for Mid-Autumn Festival gifts at a shopping mall in Yantai, East China's Shandong province, Sept 25, 2023. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images) Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images"The name of the game for Chinese youth in 2024 is trading down.
Persons: Min Li doesn't, Gucci, Chanel, Louis Vuitton, She's, Shaun Rein, Rein, Jia Miao, Jia, Chung Chi, Miao Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, Apple, China Market Research Group, Starbucks, China Market Research, Weibo, Citizens, Publishing, New York University Shanghai, MyCOS Research, NYU Shanghai, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, McKinsey, China's, China News Service Locations: Yantai, East China's Shandong province, Weibo, East China's Shandong, Covid, NYU Shanghai China, Shanghai, Guangzhou
Morning Bid: Small caps pick up baton, China rating hit
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( )   time to read: +6 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. The likes of Microsoft (MSFT.O), Apple (AAPL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Amazon (AMZN.O) fell back over 1%, pressured by a modest bounceback in U.S. Treasury yields. China's blue-chip stocks slumped to their lowest since February 2019 amid fears of a possible cut to China's sovereign credit rating cut after Moody's outlook reduction. By Mike Dolan, Editing by Bernadette Baum; <a href="" target="_blank"></a>Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Russell, that's, Moody's, Isabel Schnabel, Michael Gibson, Christine Laggard, Mongo, Zero Fox, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reserve, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Treasury, Reserve Bank of Australia, Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Barclays, Qatar, P Global, Federal, Division, Supervision, Financial Innovation, Descartes Systems, Health, Powell Industries, Dave, Buster's Entertainment, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Global, York, Treasuries, Europe
Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, while expecting China annual GDP growth to slow to 4% in 2024 and 2025 and average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030. Structural factors including weak demographics will drive a decline to 3.5% by 2030, it said. China credit default swaps (the cost of insuring against a government default) rose 4 basis points from Monday's closing level, according to Reuters data. Beijing disappointmentChina's Finance Ministry expressed its disappointment with Moody's downgrade decision. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects and fiscal sustainability are unnecessary," the ministry said in a statement Tuesday.
Persons: Javier Ghersi, Moody's Organizations: China's, Ministry Locations: China, Beijing
Your world in 10 minutes: US warships on alert
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( )   time to read: +1 min
The US Navy is on high alert in the Red Sea after a series of drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy is set to appeal directly to senators after the White House warned US funding for the war is running out. Supreme Court justices appear split over whether to approve a bankruptcy settlement with the makers of OxyContin. Plus, COP28 turns its attention to fossil fuels and a former US ambassador is charged over spying for Cuba. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices.
Persons: Volodomyr Zelenskiy, Moody's Organizations: Apple, Google, Reuters, US Navy, House, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Red, Iran, OxyContin, Israel, Cuba, Russia, Ukraine, China
[1/2] A Chinese national flag flutters at the headquarters of a commercial bank on a financial street near the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, in central Beijing November 24, 2014. "The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector," Moody's said. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary," the ministry said. STRUGGLING FOR TRACTIONMost analysts believe China's growth is on track to hit the government's target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven. Analysts widely agree that China's growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Moody's, Ken Cheung, Pan Gongsheng, COVID, Goldman Sachs, Gnaneshwar Rajan, Kevin Yao, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Mizuho Bank, Economic Work Conference, Fitch, China's Finance Ministry, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Bengaluru
Moody's Investors Service slashed its outlook for Chinese government bonds to negative on Tuesday. Beijing has rolled out stimulus packages and ramped up borrowing in a bid to support the embattled Chinese economy in 2023. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementMoody's Investors Service slashed its outlook for China's credit rating on Tuesday, dealing a fresh blow to the world's second-largest economy. Moody's cited stagnant growth and a seemingly never-ending property crisis as factors that could hamper Beijing's ability to repay its debts.
Persons: , Moody's, that's, , Read, It's Organizations: Moody's, Service, China's Ministry, Finance, Bloomberg, CSI Locations: Beijing, China, Moody's
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 24, 2022. "Presently, the markets price in around a 125bp (basis points) cut from the Fed next year," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note. Investors will also parse data on U.S. services sector activity from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday. ET, Dow e-minis were down 115 points, or 0.32%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 20 points, or 0.44%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 103 points, or 0.65%. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Shristi Achar A; Editing by Pooja DesaiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Ozkardeskaya, Amruta Khandekar, Pooja Desai Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Swissquote Bank, Labor Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Nvidia, Dow e, CVS, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Sluggish global growth, a higher risk of borrowers defaulting on loans and pressure on profitability mean that banks face a negative outlook in 2024, credit rating agency Moody's said on Monday. Pockets of stress in property markets in the Asia-Pacific region were also likely to continue, the report said. Moody's said in its report that it expected money to remain tight next year, lowering economic growth even as central banks are expected to start cutting rates. China's growth is also set to slow amid muted spending by consumers and businesses, weak exports and an ongoing property crunch, the report said. However, capital levels - which underpin the financial soundness of banks - are expected to broadly hold up, the report said.
Persons: Toby Melville, Moody's, Felipe Carvallo, Iain Withers, Chizu Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Moody's Investors Services, Bank, Moody's Investors Service, Thomson Locations: Canary, Bank of England, London, Britain, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific
Commercial property companies ramped up borrowing when rates were low and some are now struggling to pay off or roll-over debt after eight interest rate hikes by the central bank. Thedeen said many companies in the commercial real estate sector needed to restructure their balance sheets. Even if rates have peaked, problems for the commercial real estate sector are not over. Short-dated debt and large refunding needs mean "the Swedish property sector has more risk" than in other European countries, Maria Gillholm, senior credit officer at Moody's, said. The commercial real estate sector triggered a financial crisis in Sweden in the early 1990s and authorities have said it is once again the biggest risk to financial stability.
Persons: Erik Thedeen, Jonas Ekstromer, Thedeen, It's, Riksbank, Moody's, Maria Gillholm, Simon Johnson, Terje Solsvik, Essi Lehto, Susan Fenton Organizations: TT, Agency, Rights, Moody's, Thomson Locations: Stockholm, Sweden, Swedish, Europe
Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. But Macklem also said "right now, it is not time to start thinking about cutting interest rates." Interest rate futures are pricing the first rate cut in March, earlier than the poll prediction. "Accompanying labour market weakness should put downward pressure on inflation and prompt the Bank of Canada to cut the policy rate around of the spring of 2024," they wrote. That was despite several government measures announced in the latest Fall Economic Statement to boost housing supply and help lenders dealing with homeowners at risk amid high interest rates.
Persons: Blair Gable, Macklem, It's, Avery Shenfeld, Robert Hogue, Sebastian Mintah, Mumal Rathore, Ross Finley, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Bank of Canada, REUTERS, Reuters, BoC, U.S . Federal, Barclays, CIBC Capital Markets, of Canada, RBC, Desjardins, Moody's, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, BENGALURU, stagnate
Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | )   time to read: +5 min
Inflation has dropped quickly towards the ECB's 2% target from levels above 10% just a year ago but policymakers have cautioned against excessive optimism. The rapid inflation slowdown puts the euro zone central bank and investors on a collision course as the two appear to see greatly different paths ahead, both for consumer prices and ECB interest rates. "And if the recent trends in inflation and growth continue then 2024 will be the year when the ECB implements a pirouette in monetary policy." "The market is therefore right to start looking at rate cuts for 2024. Some economists argue that modelling current inflation is exceptionally difficult because corporate profits are the main driver, not wages as in normal bouts of rapid inflation.
Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Kamil Kovar, Yannis Stournaras, Fabio Panetta, Panetta, Christine Lagarde's, Bert Colijn, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, ECB, Moody's, Bank of Italy, ING, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, FRANKFURT
Mortgage rates will settle between 5%-6%, helping boost home sales, Zandi added. The trend is especially evident among high-end properties, where the rise of multi-family towers in urban centers has lowered rents and impacted the single-family housing market. That's because the added supply increases overall competition in the housing market as sellers of existing homes will be under more pressure to cut prices, he explained. The rush to add inventory comes as the housing market faces a broad supply crunch, made worse by homeowners' resistance to sell their properties. He reiterated that this will help boost housing sales, as long as a recession is avoided and incomes continue to rise.
Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi, Organizations: CNBC, Service
While the euro zone has pledged to do "whatever it takes" and jointly issued debt for the first time during the pandemic, its debt load remains eye-watering. Scope assigns Italy a "stable" outlook, but "risks remain", Shen said, "given the weak growth and fiscal outlook". Reuters GraphicsNEXT CRISISThe ECB uses the best rating available from its approved agencies to determine a bond's collateral value when commercial banks borrow from it. Last week's Dutch election win by the far-right Geert Wilders could also have rating implications, Shen said. "Governance risks are a challenge in the longer run for one of the world’s remaining AAA-rated sovereigns...But the rating is not imminently at risk."
Persons: Yorgos, Moody's, Dennis Shen, Fitch, DBRS Morningstar, Shen, DBRS, bode, Geert Wilders, Marc Jones, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, AAA, European Central Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics NEXT, ECB, Thomson Locations: Athens, Italy, France, Berlin, U.S, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Rome, Canada, Dutch
A default cycle has started, spurred by high rates and debt costs, economists at Apollo Management said. Data on default rates and bankruptcy filings show just how severe the situation is. Advertisement"A default cycle has started with bankruptcy filings rising, and default rates will continue to rise over the coming quarters, impacting in particular middle market companies," they added. US Speculative grade default rates Apollo Management"The ongoing rise in default rates is not just a 'normalization.' AdvertisementUS bankruptcy filings Apollo ManagementWeekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million in liabilities Apollo ManagementSløk has previously said that the Fed's rate hikes were to blame for higher bankruptcies.
Persons: , Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Apollo Management Sløk, Nicholas Colas, Moody's Organizations: Apollo Management, Service, HY, Apollo, DataTrek, Management Locations: Moody's, Europe
[1/3] Richard Teng, head of the Middle East and North Africa for crypto firm Binance gestures as he speaks during an interview with Reuters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 30, 2022. Teng faces an especially tough task in transforming the culture of Binance, four of the people said. Still, leading a cultural shift at Binance - a firm shaped by Zhao in his own image - would be "hugely difficult," she said. For years it dominated the crypto market, but this year has rapidly lost market share. Last month it controlled 32% of crypto spot and 50% of derivatives trading, according to crypto firm CCData, down from 55% and 62% respectively in January.
Persons: Richard Teng, Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Teng, Changpeng Zhao, Janet Yellen, Binance, Carol Alexander, Zhao, Yi He, Binance's, Simon Matthews, Richard, Matthews, FinCEN, John Reed Stark, Rajeev Bamra, OKX, Joseph Edwards, Tom Wilson, Elizabeth Howcroft, Elisa Martinuzzi, Louise Heavens Organizations: Reuters, United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, U.S, Treasury, University of Sussex, Investors, Treasury's, Internet Enforcement, Singapore, Abu, Abu Dhabi Global, Singapore Exchange, Moody's Investors Service, Securities, Thomson Locations: East, North Africa, Dubai, United Arab, U.S, Abu Dhabi, France, Seychelles, London
General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 24 (Reuters) - S&P Global Ratings on Friday revised Bahrain's outlook to "stable" from "positive", citing spending pressures that could push the country's fiscal deficit wider than the credit ratings agency previously expected. "We expect the government will reinvigorate reforms to consolidate its fiscal position, largely via increasing non-oil revenue through 2026," it said in a statement. The agency now projects fiscal deficits of 3% to 4% of Bahrain's GDP over 2023-26, compared with 2% to 3% in its previous review. S&P peer Fitch affirmed Bahrain at 'B+' with stable outlook in July, while Moody's changed Bahrain's outlook to stable from negative and affirmed B2 ratings in April last year.
Persons: Hamad I Mohammed, Fitch, Moody's, Vedant Vinayak Vichare, Devika Syamnath, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Bahrain World Trade, REUTERS, Navy's, Thomson Locations: Bahrain, Manama, Bengaluru
Price drops may be needed to thaw the housing market, which could take years, Zandi said. Kelman expects home prices to drop next year, as listings are up and sellers are cutting prices. AdvertisementHouse prices may be headed lower, dealing a blow to sellers but providing relief to buyers, two experts say. The housing market ground to a halt this year, as the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting hikes to interest rates have boosted mortgage rates to two-decade highs. "I don't expect the housing market to come roaring back here, certainly not in 2024," he said.
Persons: Mark Zandi, Glenn Kelman, Price, Zandi, Kelman, , Morgan Stanley's, there's, we've, Redfin's Kelman Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Fox
By Khanh Vu and Francesco GuarascioHANOI (Reuters) - Vietnam's top leader vowed to extend "for the long-term" an anti-corruption campaign that has had a chilling effect on the economy, after police revealed financial scandals in the real estate sector worth more than 3% of gross domestic product. Trong's remarks came after the police announced the outcome of months-long investigations into two financial scandals, revealing for the first time the scale of the fraud, worth a combined $12.8 billion, or 3.2% of the economy. The case had been widely publicised when My Lan was arrested in October last year and led to a crisis in the real estate sector and the market for corporate bonds, which she has been accused of issuing illegally in large amounts. The huge scale of the fraud had not been known until this week and has raised concern among financial experts about the impact on the banking sector. In September, the Asian Development Bank warned of potential spillover into banking from the crisis in the real estate sector as the ratio of non-performing loans increased.
Persons: Khanh Vu, Francesco Guarascio HANOI, Nguyen Phu Trong, Trong's, Truong My Lan, Van Thinh, Lan, Morgan, Moody's, Tan, Francesco Guarascio, Robert Birsel Organizations: Communist Party's, Van Thinh Phat Holdings Group, Stock Commercial Bank, Morgan Research, Asian Development Bank, Group Locations: Communist, Saigon, China
Investors who hope to generate portfolio income while recession fears ramp higher can seek some safety in municipal bonds. Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently issued its fixed income guidance for 2024, forecasting "higher for longer" rates across the yield curve as the Federal Reserve remains vigilant to bring down inflation. Municipal bonds offer a combination of characteristics that appeal to investors: General obligation bonds are backed by the revenue of the municipality issuing them. "Going into a slowdown, you anticipate rates to fall," said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The top marginal income tax rate is 13.3% in California and well over 10% in New York and New Jersey.
Persons: Brian Rehling, Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton, Johnston Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Federal Reserve, Fargo Investment Institute, AAA, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, Bond, Fed, New York Life Investments, Investors, York State, Metropolitan Transportation Authority Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, New, California, New York, New Jersey, York
"A fiscal commission is direly needed," Republican Senator Mike Braun, a Budget Committee member, said in an interview. It circulated ideas from a dozen experts on how a commission could offer up solutions for taming deficits and debt. Other recommendations included subjecting high-income earners to more Social Security taxes and gradually raising the age for full retirement benefits to 69 from the current 67. A commission, said independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats, would simply be "a backdoor way to get into cutting Social Security." Sanders embraced lifting the cap on taxable income to extend the life of the Social Security trust fund.
Persons: Kevin Wurm, Mike Braun, Braun, Moody's, Fitch, Michael Peterson, Peter G, Mark Zandi, Dana Peterson, Lori Esposito Murray, Joe Manchin, Mitt Romney, Bernie Sanders, Sanders, Richard Cowan, Moira Warburton, Grant McCool Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, Congress, Treasury Department, Republican, AAA, Peterson Foundation, Conference Board, Democratic, Representatives, Social Security, Social, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S
REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) expects the U.S. Treasuries curve to steepen in the long term, driven by rising fiscal spending, top executives said. "Fiscal spending has not abated. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, hit 5% last month for the first time since 2007. Demand for long-dated Treasuries has slipped in the last six months from central banks, U.S. regional banks and sovereign wealth funds, said Jim Esposito, who jointly runs Goldman's global banking and markets division. "Our economists think most central banks will start cutting rates next year, albeit slowly.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Goldman Sachs, Ashok Varadhan, Goldman's, Fitch, Moody's, government's, Treasuries, Jim Esposito, they've, Esposito, Lananh Nguyen, Davide Barbuscia, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, QE, China
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has shown a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was last traded at 148.36 yen , down 0.84%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Richmond Federal, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Closely watched U.S. treasury yields slipped after auction, while global oil futures gained $2 on the prospect of supply cuts. Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) inched up 0.1%, with energy stocks (.SXEP) leading gains. The healthcare sector (.SXDP) fell after shares in Bayer (BAYGn.DE) dropped to their lowest in 14 years. The dollar index fell to 103.26, its weakest since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting interest rates next year.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, U.S, Bayer, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Trading, LPL, Tech, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, Thursday's U.S, United States, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London
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