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Maley: China has structural problems that stimulus won't solve
  + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMaley: China has structural problems that stimulus won't solveMatt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak, warns that rising commodity prices could hurt earnings and urges caution with Chinese stocks despite recent gains.
Persons: Matt Maley, Miller Tabak Locations: China
U.S. crude oil futures might be showing signs of a break out after topping $80 this week, though some analysts caution against reading too much into the move. The move higher came after the International Energy Agency forecast a crude supply deficit this year and Ukraine attacked several oil refineries in Russia. U.S. crude performed the same pattern this week, wiping out and closing above last week's intraday high of $80.67. U.S. crude has also held above its 200-day moving average of $78.13 a barrel almost all month, he said. As the market enters a supply deficit this year, Riyadh could start rolling barrels back on the market, Melek said.
Persons: Matt Maley, Miller, Tom Fitzpatrick, R.J, O'Brien, WTI, Brent, Fitzpatrick, Maley, Malley, Bart Melek, Melek, We're, Carter Worth, It's, it's, Worth Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, SPDR, Energy, TD Securities, U.S, Worth Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Riyadh, U.S, United States
Occidental Petroleum and Diamondback Energy may be poised to rally after U.S. crude oil prices broke above a key resistance level on Friday, according to the chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. "That paves the way for higher prices," said Bob Yawger, managing director and energy futures strategist at Mizuho Americas. "If crude oil rolls back over, breaks below that level — that's going to tell you that I'm wrong. "And that tells me that if he's buying a stock that's highly leveraged to the price of oil, he believes oil prices are going higher." Just on Friday, Houthi militants claimed responsibility for a missile attack on an oil tanker, while a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian fuel terminal on the Baltic Sea helped push oil prices higher earlier in the week.
Persons: Miller Tabak, Miller, Matt Maley, Bob Yawger, Yawger, WTI, Maley, It's, Diamondback, Buffett, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Friday's, Houthi Organizations: Occidental Petroleum, Diamondback Energy, West Texas, CNBC, Mizuho Americas, Occidental, Diamondback, United States Oil ETF, Berkshire, Wall Street Locations: Miller Tabak ., China, Occidental, Occidental's, Houston, FactSet, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Baltic
U.S. crude oil prices entered a bear market this week, down 22% from September highs as traders wrangle over whether the spiral is driven by market fundamentals or just speculation. Phil Flynn, an oil market analyst with the Price Futures Group, said hedge funds have piled into short positions. There is still some "grind lower" in prices in store unless more positive data comes out of China, he said. If prices keep falling, the U.S. will slip from record production because shale producers will have trouble making money and stop investing, he said. The group has blamed speculators for the recent selloff and insisted market fundamentals are strong with China demand healthy.
Persons: Leo Mariani, Roth MKM, Phil Flynn, John Kilduff, Flynn, Kilduff, Matt Maley, Miller, Daniel Yergin, Yergin, Brent, — CNBC's Pippa Stevens Organizations: West Texas, Brent, Price Futures, Energy Information Agency, Again, Traders, P Global, Organization of, Petroleum, UBS, OPEC Locations: China, U.S, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, East, Israel, Persian, Hormuz
2023: The year of chasing yield Investors historically chase after stock performance, but 2023 has been the year of chasing after yield performance. This year, the combined assets under management at money market funds grew to a record $6 trillion. There have been large inflows into short-term Treasury funds like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and, surprisingly, even into long-term Treasury ETFs like the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Still, some think a large chunk of the money in short-term Treasuries and money markets is "scared money" and will be "sticky." Those institutional investors "Don't want any money in cash because it will lag behind the stock market," he told me.
Persons: Paul McCulley, they're, Mark Lehman, Eric Balchunas, Jeff Seyffart, Alec Young, Steve Sosnick, Jim Besaw, Besaw, Mike O'Rourke, JonesTrading, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Chris Murphy Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Citizens JMP Securities, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Schwab Money Fund, MapSignals, Interactive Brokers, Gentrust, UBS Locations: Susquehanna
The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. Seven megacap stocks -- Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) -- have led broader markets higher this year. Their rising stock prices ballooned valuations, however, and some investors say the megacaps could be vulnerable if climbing bond yields keep pressuring stocks. "When the big tech stocks start going down ... the indexes go down," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Still, strategists point out that the rise in implied volatility for tech stocks is no more than for the broader market.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, megacaps, LSEG, Matt Maley, Miller, , Matt Stucky, Chris Murphy, Rick Meckler, J, Bryant Evans, ” Evans, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Susquehanna Financial Group, Amazon, Cherry Lane Investments, Cozad Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, New Jersey
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMaley: Given where interest rates are, it'll be tough for stocks to push much higherMatt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak, discusses the final trading day of August and what's ahead for stocks.
Persons: Matt Maley, Miller Tabak
Strong economic growth has spurred expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave rates higher for longer, pushing Treasury yields this month to their highest levels since 2007. The S&P 500 has lost 4% this month as the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a more than 15-year high of 4.366% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) has dropped 5.7%, bitcoin has fallen over 10% and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.P) - a bastion of many high-growth names - has dropped 18.5%. Stocks rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.7% and futures pointed to a further rise on Tuesday. The S&P 500 is over 8% below its January 2022 closing high.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, bitcoin, Sameer Samana, , Jerome Powell, Matt Maley, Miller, Goldman Sachs, Randy Frederick, Frederick, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Bill Berkrot Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Innovation, U.S ., Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Lipper, Investor, Deutsche Bank, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Samana, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMaley: Rates at these levels don't justify current stock valuationsMatt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co, discusses the outlook for the stock and bond markets.
Persons: Matt Maley, Miller
Consider: The S & P 500 hasn't seen a 1% down day in two months . The S & P 500 is going to close higher for five consecutive months. The S & P 500 advance/decline line, which measures the daily activity of how many stocks are advancing versus declining, has been rising steadily for the past two months. The triumph (so far) of the soft landing has enabled earnings estimates to stabilize. The soft landing data must continue .
Persons: It's, What's, Frank Gretz, Wellington Shields, Gretz, Alec Young, Young, Jerome Powell's, Timmer, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak Organizations: PCE, Bulls, Tactical Alpha, Fed, Fidelity Investments Locations: Wellington
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBefore the end of the year crude oil could hit 'if not exceed' $100/barrel: Rapidan's Bob McNallyMatt Maley, Miller Tabak chief market strategist, Bob McNally, Rapidan Energy Group president, joins 'Last Call' to talk the Biden administrations policies that have helped the fossil fuel industry grow.
Persons: Bob McNally Matt Maley, Miller, Bob McNally Organizations: Rapidan Energy Group, Biden
The S&P 500 defied recession fears and a U.S. banking crisis to notch a 15.9% gain in the first half. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has posted a positive return in eight consecutive Julys, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) has climbed in July for 15 straight years. S&P 500 companies are expected to post an overall drop in earnings of 5.7% from the year-earlier period, according to Refinitiv IBES. The S&P 500 is trading at 19.1 times forward earnings estimates, well above its historic average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream. "At some point, this move in interest rates has got to have some consequences for the markets," Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said in a note on Friday.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, , Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, Omar Aguilar, Refinitiv IBES, , John Lynch, Refinitiv, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Nasdaq, ” Reuters, American Association of, Fed, Schwab Asset Management, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Comerica Wealth Management, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Since the VIX normally is used as a "fear gauge", he noted that was unusual, and asked what might have caused that. Remember, it is a measure of near-term (30-day) activity for S & P 500 put and call options. However, the put/call ratio has been low recently, between 0.7 and 0.8, as traders have been buying calls, betting the market will keep rising. Eric Johnston at Piper Sandler agrees: "The call buying has been very strong as investors chase upside," he told me. The recent events are that the market is rising, so the urge to buy protection declines: "When institutions get nervous, they seek protection in VIX.
Persons: Joe Zicherman, Tuesday's, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, There's, Mike O'Rourke, O'Rourke, Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler, it's, Danny Kirsch, Steve Sosnick Organizations: Fed, Jones, Interactive Brokers Locations: VIX
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAdvance Auto Parts is the stock you need to avoid: Miller Tabak’s Matt MaleyMatt Maley, chief marketing strategist at Miller Tabak, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss Advance Auto Parts as the stock is on pace for its worst day ever as the company posted a huge earnings miss.
Persons: Miller, Matt Maley Matt Maley, Miller Tabak
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInaction from congress on debt ceiling 'will be throwing flames on a fire', says Matt MaleyMatt Maley, Miller Tabak + Co. chief strategist, and Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald head of equity derivatives, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' with reaction to Secretary Yellen's comments on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, a possible recession and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMaley: The Fed won't cut rates unless something dramatically breaks in the economyMiller Tabak + Co.'s Matt Maley discusses how the latest Fed decision impacts the markets.
NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Economically sensitive areas of the U.S. stock market are flashing warnings over growth, even as major equity indexes edge higher. Beneath the surface, however, areas of the market tied to economic sentiment such as transports, semiconductors and small-cap stocks dropped in April, while so-called defensive sectors are outperforming. “People are starting to more defensively position themselves,” said Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Eaton Vance. "They are talking about demand being down and they are ridiculously important shipping companies,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
At the halfway point for earnings, bulls are delighted earnings are coming in stronger than expected and expectations for the second half of the year remain high. With 260 companies in the S & P 500 reporting, 79% are beating expectations, according to Earnings Scout. That is an earnings recession, but the declines — all in the low single digits — are not causing a lot of consternation. Now, on the heels of positive earnings reports, many tech stocks are seeing second quarter earnings estimates rising in the past few weeks, including Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet. The second half of 2023: Record earnings, really?
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Miller Tabak's Matt Maley and Wilmington Trust's Meghan ShueMatt Maley, Miller Tabak chief strategist and Meghan Shue, Wilmington Trust head of investment, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss this weeks JOLTs report and market reaction.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBad news for the economy is finally bad news for stocks, says Miller's Matt MaleyMatt Maley, Miller Tabak chief strategist and Meghan Shue, Wilmington Trust head of investment, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss this weeks JOLTs report and market reaction.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI think there are more to come, says The NY Times' Kate Kelly on bank issuesThe New York Times' Kate Kelly, Ben Eisen of the Wall Street Journal, George Hammond of The Financial Times and Matt Maley of Miller Tabak join CNBC's Brian Sullivan and 'Last Call' to discuss the current bank crisis and how it's being handled.
For investors who don't want to abandon stocks altogether and flee to the safety of two-year Treasury notes, one style attracting renewed interest is an old one: quality. "I would be picking growth stocks from here," Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, told me. But not just any growth stocks: "I would be picking companies that have stable earnings, and low debt." Stocks that screen for high quality tend to be leveraged to technology and the consumer. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, explains why: "Are people really going to be mad at you for owning Apple, or Microsoft, or other high quality stocks?
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed's willing to risk a recession to bring down inflation, says Miller Tabak's Matt MaleyMatt Maley, Miller Tabak chief market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss his takeaways from the latest Fed statements and what it could mean for the markets.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMaley: It's only a matter of time before the stock market heads back lowerMiller Tabak's Matt Maley explains why he sees a potential dip in the markets in the coming weeks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market can't stay at these levels, says Miller Tabak's Matt MaleyMatt Maley, Miller Tabak and Co, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the market trends, the market rally and how investors should position themselves now.
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