DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Bank of England set to keep rates at 15-year high despite slowdown signs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee is facing an inflation rate more than double that of the euro zone and almost twice the U.S. rate. It voted by only a narrow 5-4 margin in September to halt its run of increases in borrowing costs. But signs of a slowdown in much of the British economy have become clearer since then and some economists say a recession might already be under way. The central bank said in its last set of economic forecasts in August that inflation would only return to 2% in the second quarter of 2025. But Bailey and his MPC colleagues are likely to reiterate that they are ready to raise rates higher if needed.

Persons: BoE, Mike Riddell, Riddell, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Allianz Global Investors, BoE, MPC, Conservative Party, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Bank of England set to hold rates again, but markets see no cuts on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "U.K. economic activity appears to have slowed further, the housing market is weaker, consumer spending is falling, and inflationary pressure is showing further signs of dissipating. U.K. inflation came in at 6.7% in September , unchanged from the previous month and considerably higher than in other G7 economies. "The only way that we can rationalise this is if U.K. inflation remains stuck at 3% or higher forever, and/or the U.K. economy avoids a meaningful recession," he said. The European Central Bank last week held rates steady at their current record high of 4%, ending a run of 10 straight hikes.

Persons: Mike Riddell, BoE, Swati Dhingra, Riddell, Abbas Khan, Haskel, Mann, Dhingra, Catherine Mann, Allianz's Riddell Organizations: Bank of England, Allianz Global Investors, P, MPC, Bank, Monetary, LONDON, Barclays, U.S . Federal, Treasury, European Central Bank Locations: City, London, Britain, Israel

The latest drubbing in the world's biggest bond markets, which last year suffered a record rout, does not yet point to any dysfunction in the markets themselves, investors said. But in echoes of the volatile conditions seen during March's banking crisis, trading in euro zone benchmark German government bond futures were briefly interrupted on Thursday when bond yields spiked. U.S. and British 10-year yields were also set to end the week more than 20 bps higher , . ING said earlier on Friday that this week's data was strong enough to push yields higher even if jobs numbers interrupt the moves. "It won't be as bad as that, but higher rates and higher yields could lead to negative returns and pressure returns on equity markets."

Persons: Mike Riddell, Jan von Gerich, Mark Dowding, Gael Fichan, Fichan, BlueBay's Dowding, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Harry Robertson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S, Federal, Allianz Global Investors, Fed, of, European Central Bank, BlueBay Asset Management, Syz, ING, Global, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Australia, British, Germany, Britain, U.S, of England

☆ Analysis: Bond markets reckon a central bank policy error is on the cards
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"We are positioned for a very big bond rally, and we think that risky assets are completely underestimating the risk of a recession or something nasty happening," he added. (.MERW0G1)An early sign that the bond outlook is improving came last week with data showing euro zone business growth stalled in June. In response, German bond yields, which move inversely to prices, posted their second biggest daily drop since March. But highlighting how hard economic data has become to read, higher-than-expected U.S. first quarter growth and German inflation sent yields surging on Thursday. Major central banks fighting a surge in inflation have collectively raised borrowing costs by over 3,750 bps since September 2021.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Riddell, Viraj Patel, Vanda's Patel, BoE, Urban, Jill Hirzel, Dhara Ranasinghe, Harry Robertson, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, Vanda Research, Deutsche Bank, General Investment Management, Insight Investment, Thomson Locations: Washington, hawkish, Canada, Britain, Norway, Sintra, Germany, United States, U.S

The rapid rise in gilt yields has consequences for the wider economy. To some investors, gilts now increasingly look a bargain as 6% BoE interest rates appear unrealistic. Two-year gilt yields have risen by 1.1 percentage points this year, compared with a 0.3 percentage point increase for German two-year yields and 0.2 percentage points for U.S. Treasuries . Raising interest rates to 6% would "succeed in destroying demand" in the wider economy, he said. Ten-year gilt yields now pay an interest rate nearly 2 percentage points higher than the equivalent German government bond .

Persons: BoE, Liz, Britain's, Jim Leaviss, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, gilts, We've, Mike Riddell, Riddell, Moyeen, There's, Islam, Naomi Rovnick, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Labour Party, Bank of England, Bank of, Italy, Reuters Graphics, Allianz Global Investors, U.S, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, Britain, British, gilts

☆ Analysis: After extraordinary rally, bonds' fate now with bank stability and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Alongside that dash for safe havens was a rapid repricing of rate-hike bets as banking turmoil raised financial stability risks, fuelling the rally in government debt. But coming so soon after markets had positioned for bigger U.S. rate hikes to tame inflation, bonds swung wildly. March's sharp drop in two-year yields followed a 59 bps jump in February. Two-year Treasury yields are down 24 bps this quarter, their biggest quarterly drop since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. The likes of JPMorgan, BofA and Morgan Stanley, expect Treasury yields to end 2023 lower; others such as Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas expect a rise.

☆ Banking turmoil means recession fears are creeping back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here's what some closely watched market indicators say about recession risks:1/ CRUNCH TIME? Central bankers are closely monitoring the potential for banking stress, on top of lending conditions that were already tightening, to trigger a credit crunch. European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has also said the market turmoil may help fight inflation. Reuters Graphics3/ BANK STOCK ROUTWorld shares down just 0.1% in March and still sitting on gains this year seem to signal little recession risk, but worries are mounting under the surface. Global bank stocks, which had outperformed the MSCI World Stock Index before the turmoil, are down nearly 15% this month (.dMIWO0BK00PUS).

☆ Analysis: Investors warm to European corporate bonds after a brutal year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A net $3.62 billion flowed into BlackRock's exchange-traded products which track investment grade European corporate debt in the 30 days to November 17. This has buoyed government bond prices, pushing their yields down, and boosted riskier assets such as corporate bonds and stocks. The iBoxx euro corporate bond index (.IBBEU003D) has risen almost 4% since hitting an eight-year low in October, although it remains down 13% for the year. Goldman Sachs strategists recently told clients that one- to five-year European corporate bonds are "very attractive". They said they're more appealingly priced than U.S. corporate debt, with many investors overly pessimistic about the outlook for Europe's economy.

☆ 3 Markets rejoice after surprisingly cool inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, BMO WEALTH MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO“The better-than-expected CPI numbers are welcome but show a lot of underlying volatility. What Powell said is that we are going to need a few more reads on good CPI data before he can say we’re done." Shelter is the main contributor to inflation and everyone should know by now that it’s a garbage indicator of where inflation is headed. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. “The good news is that we saw a significant sequential improvement, inflation is clearly moving in the right direction.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Borrowing costs for UK firms are soaring, with sterling corporate bond prices headed for their biggest monthly fall since the 1990s as fallout from the British government's "mini-Budget" grows. That, according to Vanguard credit portfolio manager Sarang Kulkarni, in turn helped ease conditions slightly in the investment grade bond market. Yields and bond prices move inversely. The sterling corporate bond market, much smaller and less liquid than the equivalent euro or U.S. dollar markets, is driven largely by moves in UK gilts, which have slid in value in recent days. He said that liquidity in the corporate sterling market - not great at the best of times - was looking "almost non-existent" right now.

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File PhotoNEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against inflation. "It's hard to know what will break where, and when," said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments (US). "Currency exchange rates ... are now violent in their moves," said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. But the murky outlook meant that they were still not cheap enough for some investors. "We are of the view that markets are still massively underestimating the global economic growth hit that is coming," he said.

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File PhotoNEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Global investors are preparing for more market mayhem after a monumental week that whipsawed asset prices around the world, as central banks and governments ramped up their fight against inflation. "It's hard to know what will break where, and when," said Mike Kelly, head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments (US). "Currency exchange rates ... are now violent in their moves," said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. The fallout from the hectic week exacerbated trends for stocks and bonds that have been in place all year, pushing down prices for both asset classes. "We are of the view that markets are still massively underestimating the global economic growth hit that is coming," he said.

Finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng's plans will require an extra 72 billion pounds ($79 billion) of government borrowing over the next six months alone, and - a particular concern for investors - cement permanent tax cuts costing 45 billion pounds a year. But to bond investors, they bring the prospect of more persistent inflationary pressures - at a time when inflation is already near a 40-year high - as well as tighter Bank of England (BoE) policy. Government borrowing is likely to total 218 billion pounds this financial year and 229 billion pounds in 2023/24, Citi predicted, and it expects benchmark 10-year British government bond yields to rise to 4.25%. Adding to the pressure, on Thursday the BoE confirmed it planned to reduce its own 838 billion pounds of gilt holdings by 80 billion pounds over the coming year. "That is a strong indication that domestic and overseas investors are losing confidence in the UK's inflation-fighting credibility," he said.

Search resuls for: "Mike Riddell"

13 mentions found