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☆ Japan votes in election expected to punish PM Ishiba's coalition
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

TOPSHOT - Officials look on as people vote during the general election at a polling station set up at a local school in Tokyo on October 27, 2024. Japan voted on October 27 in its tightest election in years, with new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his juggernaut Liberal Democratic Party facing potentially their worst result since 2009. (Photo by Richard A. Brooks / AFP) (Photo by RICHARD A. BROOKS/AFP via Getty Images)Japan's voters decide the fate of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government on Sunday in an election expected to punish his coalition over a funding scandal and inflation, potentially ending a decade of dominance for his Liberal Democratic Party. Political wrangling could roil markets and be a headache for the Bank of Japan, if Ishiba chooses a partner that favours maintaining near-zero interest rates when the central bank wants to gradually raise them. "That's basically the scenario for 'sell Japan'," as investors ponder how the outcome could affect fiscal and monetary policy, said Naka Matsuzawa, chief macro strategist at Nomura Securities.

Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Richard A, Brooks, RICHARD A, BROOKS, Shigeru Ishiba's, Komeito, Ishiba, Jeffrey Hall, That's, Naka Matsuzawa Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Getty, LDP, Bank of Japan, Kanda University of International Studies, Asahi, Nomura Securities, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan Locations: Tokyo, Japan, AFP, China

☆ Asia stocks slip as dovish Fed cheer fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But it fell 0.2% in early trade on Wednesday. Nasdaq futures (.IXIC) were down 0.2% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% early in the Asia day. They have fallen about 50 basis points since the Fed held rates steady early in the month. It was broadly steady at $1.0921 to the euro and 148.17 yen in early trade on Wednesday. In commodity markets Brent crude futures held just above their 50-day moving average at $82.64 a barrel.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, Naka, Rabobank's, Philip Marey, Jonathan Petersen, Michele Bullock, Changpeng Zhao, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Thursday's, Federal Reserve, Fed, Capital Economics, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Wednesday Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, U.S, Singapore

☆ World stocks scale 2-month high boosted by rate cuts bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, July 20, 2023. The British consumer price index rose by 4.6% in the 12 months to October, slowing from September's 6.7% increase, the Office for National Statistics said. He sees a "more complicated" process ahead, where stock market exuberance eventually collides with bond market expectations that an economic slowdown will drive rate cuts. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, stood at 104.17, not far from Tuesday's two-month low of 103.98. Interest rate futures swung to price in an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as May, with a 30% chance it could come even sooner, in March.

Persons: May MILAN, Carlo Franchini, Naka, Russell, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Sterling, Danilo Masoni, Tom Westbrook, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Bank of England, Banca Ifigest, National Statistics, CPI, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg News, Golden, HSBC, Brent, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, Asia, China, Milan, Ukraine, Italy, France, Tokyo, San Francisco, London, CHINA, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore

[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Global stocks traded cautiously on Monday as the market's focus turned to U.S. inflation data for more clues on whether global interest rates really have peaked. Economists polled by Reuters expect to see headline consumer price inflation in the U.S. slow to 3.3% in October from 3.7% the month before, although the so-called core inflation rate that strips out volatile components is seen unchanged. "But now, the Treasury market has already priced in a pause, so there's not much room for Treasury yields to fall further," removing a support for the stock market. "In short, I don't think the stock market rally is going to continue."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Naka Matsuzawa, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Dow, Nasdaq, Barclays, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Nomura Securities, Treasury, Economic Cooperation, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, United States, Asia, San Francisco, Iraq, London, Tokyo

☆ Stocks gain, bonds calm as Fed outlook trumps Moody's downgrade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. Tech stocks stood out, as they had in the U.S. at the end of last week, after the calming of long-term Treasury yields since the start of this month boosted the outlook for borrowing-dependent growth shares. The U.S. dollar index hovered below its post-payrolls-report high of 106.01, reached on Friday, last trading little changed around 105.80. "But now, the Treasury market has already priced in a pause, so there's not much room for Treasury yields to fall further," removing a support for the stock market, he added. "In short, I don't think the stock market rally is going to continue."

Persons: Issei Kato, Wall, HSI, Naka Matsuzawa, Kevin Buckland Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Tech, Federal Reserve, U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Nomura Securities, Treasury, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, U.S, United States, China, Iraq

☆ Instant View: BOJ modifies bond yield control, re-defines long-term rate cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.

Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG

☆ Stocks slide, US yields climb amid hawkish Fed, China tensions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a fresh four-month high in Tokyo trading, and the dollar extended its rise against major peers. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) dropped 0.7%, after a 0.4% slide for the world index (.MIWO00000PUS) on Wednesday. U.S. E-mini stock futures pointed to a 0.1% lower restart for the S&P 500 (.SPX), following its overnight 0.2% decline. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed as high as 3.957% in Tokyo trading, after surging some 9 basis points overnight. Against the yen, though, the dollar's advances were conspicuously subdued, considering the currency pair's traditional close relationship with long-term U.S. yields.

Persons: HSI, Janet Yellen, Matt Simpson, Matsuzawa, Kevin Buckland Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Nikkei, Treasury, U.S, Nomura Securities, Bank of Japan's, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Pacific, China, United States, Tokyo, Taiwan, ., U.S, Beijing, Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Yen sinks to 15-year low vs euro as dovish BOJ contrasts with ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan kept foreign exchange markets busy engaging in so called ‘carry-trades’. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The euro was steady at 150.965 yen after earlier touching 151.03 for the first time since September 2008. The greenback was about flat at 137.375 yen, and earlier rose to 137.58 for the first time since March 8. At the RBA, traders are laying 87% odds for no change to policy, although about 11 bps of tightening is priced for the August meeting.

☆ Yen sinks to 15-year low vs euro, Aussie jumps as central banks diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan continued to reverberate days after the decision. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationMeanwhile, the Aussie dollar leapt to a one-week high after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate hike and signalled more tightening may come. The central bank lifted the cash rate to 3.85% and said “some further” tightening may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, is widely expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting the following day, with a 50 basis-point increase on the table.

Dealers say BOJ efforts to make short selling more expensive have also worked and that investors are simply avoiding the market, rather than crowding into bets on yields rising. Nearly 90% of economists polled by Reuters said they expect no policy change. Ueda's most recent remarks have stressed the need to keep policy settings loose for now, without ruling out the possibility of future changes. On Sunday the Sankei newspaper reported the BOJ is considering a review of the impact of its policy settings, which could foreshadow changes. Nomura strategist Naka Matsuzawa said the path ahead would be a balance between getting a policy change done, and improving communication.

☆ Recession fears set stocks on course for weekly drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overnight figures showed more Americans filing claims for jobless benefits and manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region slumping to its lowest level in nearly three years. Leading Economic Index, a gauge of future economic activity, also dropped to its lowest level since November 2020 overnight and it is signalling a recession starting mid-2023. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares tumbled 9.7% after the electric vehicle maker posted its lowest quarterly gross margin in two years. The yen hovered at 134.11 to the dollar, though the New Zealand dollar nursed losses at $0.6162 after Thursday's softer-than-expected inflation data. In the oil market, at $80.79 a barrel, Brent is also below its 50-day moving average for the first time since oil producers unexpectedly announced extra production cuts two weeks ago.

☆ Instant view: Incoming BOJ chief Ueda says current low rates appropriate
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Feb 24 (Reuters) - Incoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday it was appropriate to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy as inflation has yet to sustainably and steadily meet the central bank's 2% target. "I think he's intentionally doing that, so that the market will calm down a little bit about policy change expectations." "I don't think Ueda has the same stance as (Haruhiko) Kuroda but it is not clear whether Ueda would tweak the BOJ policy as the market expected." CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE"No surprises there, we expected Ueda to take it slow and he's starting off echoing Kuroda's views. He has been out of touch with the BOJ policy making since 2005 and will take time even if he was to consider policy normalisation at some stage."

☆ Japanese investors turn net buyers of overseas bonds in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

According to data from Japan's Ministry of Finance, Japanese investors purchased a net 1.56 trillion yen ($11.79 billion)worth of foreign bonds in January, marking their biggest buying spree since September 2021. Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, said Japanese buyers were likely buying foreign bonds on an unhedged basis. "Buying FX-hedged foreign bonds makes little sense given Japanese government bonds are a more attractive option," he said. The data showed that in the first week of February, Japanese investors bought 1.1 trillion yen worth of overseas bonds. Meanwhile, domestic investors also poured 1.67 trillion yen into foreign equities in January in a second straight month of net buying.

With inflation accelerating, Ueda could finally set Japan on a path to raise rates after the BOJ spent a decade fighting deflation risks with its unorthodox bond buying scheme costing trillions of yen. Ueda himself on Friday said current policy settings were appropriate, which also put a bit of a dampener on expectations of any shift. Implied volatility has also eased in the forex options market, suggesting an ebbing in bets on big shifts in the yen exchange rate. "It's not very apparent that (Ueda) would take on the job and then immediately change the policy." To be sure, 10-year Japanese yields were untraded at the BOJ's ceiling on Monday, indicating plenty of investors are staying short.

Biden, who earlier last year signed into law a 1% tax on corporate stock buybacks, used his speech to call for that to be quadrupled, as well as renew his calls for higher taxes on billionaires. If companies sense such a tax is imminent, it might spur them to speed up buybacks and eventually shift toward paying dividends instead. "If this tax encourages companies to raise their dividends instead of buying back shares, all in all, it's not a bad thing." Other topics were also watched by investors, particularly remarks on China, a key area of interest for investors. BUYBACKS & BILLIONAIRESCorporate stock buybacks, where public companies buy back their own shares, thereby juicing the price of the shares as a way to return cash to shareholders, have grabbed headlines this year.

☆ Investors' reactions to Biden's State of the Union speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Following are reactions from analysts and investors to U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union speech on Tuesday, in which he challenged Republicans to lift the debt ceiling and support tax policies that are friendlier to middle class Americans. DAMIEN BOEY, CHIEF MACRO STRATEGIST, BARRENJOEY, SYDNEY"The most important caveat is that you gotta pass this gridlock that is at the house and the senate. "That is particularly topical because you're going to hit the debt ceiling when you get to August. "So Biden's whole pitch is about inflation coming down, but it is not my problem because it is here before I got here. Biden should be clearer about how they are going to develop the supply chain away from China.

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.4% and the yen, which surged 2.7% against the dollar overnight, kept going and rose about 0.2% further to 128.65 per dollar. "No change in policy this month would be a setback for the yen," said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley. "However, we would look to buy the yen against the dollar on dips on anticipation of another (policy) move ... in the spring." INFLATION IN RETREATBeyond Japan, market sentiment was dominated by overnight U.S. December inflation data that landed more or less on consensus expectations. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.9% to a nine-month low of $1.0868 per euro and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to a roughly five-month high at $0.6984.

TOKYO, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Yields on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds breached the central bank's new ceiling on Friday in the market's most direct challenge yet to decades of uber-easy monetary policy. The central bank already holds 80% to 90% of some bond lines. REMEMBER THE RBAThere is talk in the markets that the central bank could shorten its yield target to three- and five-year bonds, but history abroad suggests the strain will remain. With the local economy recovering faster than expected and inflation accelerating, the RBA realised its pledge to keep three-year yields at 0.1% out to 2024 was no longer credible. So it abruptly dropped the whole thing and three-year yields spiked to 0.48%, an episode the RBA itself conceded caused "reputational damage" that would not be repeated.

[1/3] Examples of Japanese yen banknotes are displayed at a media event in Tokyo, Japan, November 21, 2022. Those positions took a hit when Tuesday's Bank of Japan policy shift allowed 10-year yields to almost double to 0.47%. On Wednesday the long end of Japan's yield curve actually rallied, with 30-year yields down 2.5 bps to 1.545%. "The 10-year yield is still very low ... maybe they will invest in the 20-year." In Australia, where Japan is also the largest foreign player in the bond market, 10-year yields are up about 20 bps.

☆ Reaction to China loosening COVID restrictions
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Here's what people are saying about the latest moves to ease China's COVID curbs;FRANK BENZIMRA, HEAD OF ASIA EQUITY STRATEGY, SOCIETE GENERALE, HONG KONG"MSCI China has rebounded nicely, valuations have risen and can very gradually normalise. "The next checkpoint will be Chinese New Year; I think markets are looking for further relaxation to facilitate return to their hometowns by Chinese New Year." MITUL KOTECHA, HEAD OF EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGY, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE"These are significant steps, and the reality is the current policy had become very difficult to administer given how widespread COVID is in the country. SAKTIANDI SUPAAT, REGIONAL HEAD OF FX RESEARCH & STRATEGY, MAYBANK, SINGAPORE"I think markets have, in some ways, priced in that element (of further easing). I mean, it's better for China to deregulate its COVID restrictions but even if it's a booster for the Chinese economy and commodity prices, that will work negatively for a Fed pause because it tightens monetary conditions."

☆ Reaction to China relaxing COVID restrictions in major policy shift
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REDMOND WONG, GREATER CHINA MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, HONG KONG"The 10 new measures are underwhelming, given the high expectations. GARY NG, ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, HONG KONG"The latest announcements show China is determined to speed up its reopening due to economic pressure. It is likely to see upswings cyclically in business sentiment from suppressed demand, especially in sectors heavily affected by the covid restrictions. "The next checkpoint will be Chinese New Year; I think markets are looking for further relaxation to facilitate return to their hometowns by Chinese New Year." SAKTIANDI SUPAAT, REGIONAL HEAD OF FX RESEARCH & STRATEGY, MAYBANK, SINGAPORE"I think markets have, in some ways, priced in that element (of further easing).

☆ BOJ ramps up bond buying ahead of policy meet, yields fall sharply
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 20-year JGB yield slipped 8.5 bps points to 1.110%, its lowest since Oct. 18. "The market sentiment was good today as U.S. Treasury yields fell overnight so JGB yields would have fallen anyway," said Naka Matsuzawa, a strategist at Nomura Securities. Yields on shorter end notes also fell on Wednesday, with the two-year JGB yield retreating 1 bps to -0.025%. The BOJ offered to buy 350 billion yen ($2.36 billion) of bonds with 10- and 25-year maturities, up from 250 billion yen it had planned. The BOJ said it would also buy 575 billion yen of bonds with 3- to 5-year maturities, up from a planned 475 billion yen, and 150 billion yen of bonds with maturities more than 25 years, up from 100 billion yen.

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