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A truck lines up to be loaded with soybeans in a farm in the city of Primavera do Leste in the central Brazilian state of Mato Grosso January 29, 2013. The crop-heavy northern section of Brazil’s top soy and corn state Mato Grosso experienced the driest October-November period in at least a quarter century. October-November precipitation in North Mato Grosso BrazilMato Grosso grows about 27% of Brazil’s soybeans and accounts for almost 30% of the country’s soybean export program, the world’s largest. The delay in the 2020-21 soybean crop reduced Mato Grosso’s second corn yields since it pushed the sensitive development period back into a historically drier time frame. Mato Grosso accounts for two-thirds of all Brazilian corn shipments.

Persons: Mato, Brazil Mato, Karen Braun Organizations: Mato Grosso, Brazil’s, European, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Primavera, Mato, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Mato Grosso, Brazil

The Vegetation Health Index (VHI), a U.S. government product, suggests vegetation in Mato Grosso may be in the worst state since 2015, which preceded one of the state’s worst growing seasons. The other comparable one was in 2020, though the following soybean crop was normal. Soils in Mato Grosso lack in nutrients and quality as compared with the best U.S. The state is expected to grow 27% and 38% of Brazil’s total 2023-24 soy and corn crops, respectively. Nationally, Brazil’s soybean planting was 68% as of last Thursday, the lowest rate since 2019-20 and behind the year-ago 80%.

Persons: Rio, Mato Grosso, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Lucas, El Nino, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mato Grosso, Brazil, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Mato, U.S, Mato Grosso’s

Unusually hot and dry weather in Mato Grosso has caught traders’ attention. October weather in North Mato Grosso BrazilIn Brazil’s southern state of Parana, October rainfall totaled around 350 mm (13.8 inches), the most for any month in at least 25 years. It is unhelpful in this analysis that there have not been many stronger El Ninos in recent years for comparison. Soy yield was 13% below trend that year, but otherwise, soy yields rarely miss in Mato Grosso, making it difficult to detect an impending disaster. In the south, Parana’s rainiest soy-growing seasons have most often coincided with El Ninos, but actual yield outcomes are mixed.

Persons: El Nino, Mato Grosso’s, Mato, La Nina, El, Karen Braun, Rod Nickel Organizations: Mato Grosso, Farmers, El Ninos, El Nino, Iowa, La, El, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Primavera, Mato, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Brazil, Mato Grosso, North Mato, Brazil’s, Parana, U.S, Southern, Argentina

Corn planting pace in ParanaParana’s 2021 safrinha crop was its latest planted since at least 2009, so it was especially subject to frost and freeze toward the end of the season. 2 producer of first crop corn, but it does not plant a second crop. Corn planting pace in Mato GrossoAlthough Mato Grosso’s planting pace is not necessarily alarming, it may reduce the corn’s resilience to any potentially tough weather conditions later, and last year provides a great example. May followed the exact same pattern, though Mato Grosso’s corn yields were very respectable last year. Mato Grosso’s biggest risk of late corn planting is the onset of dry season, as early as April.

Brazil’s potentially record-breaking soybean crop was 34% planted as of Monday, behind last year’s 38%, and progress slowed significantly in No. The southern state was 44% planted as of Monday, the date’s slowest pace in eight years and about 12 points below average. Soybean planting progress in Parana, BrazilBut Parana’s large second corn crop, planted right after soybean harvest, is certainly at risk if the soy season becomes delayed. The Center West state is among Brazil’s most stable soybean producers as it has not harvested a poor soy crop in seven seasons. A third straight season with La Nina, the cool phase of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, should keep analysts on guard as it tends to dry out Southern Brazil during its growing season.

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