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Investors should brace themselves for another big move next year, according to an analysis of historical data from Bank of America. The S & P 500 is up 24.7% in 2024 and on track for its second straight year with a gain of more than 20%. After rising 31% and 38% in 1927 and 1928, respectively, the S & P 500 lost 12% in 1929 and another 28% in 1930, Hartnett said. The last time the S & P 500 posted back-to-back 20% annual gains was in the 1990s, soaring 34% in 1995 and 20% in 1996. Hartnett noted that the "secret sauce" for the S & P 500 to avoid some of the sharp reversals seen before is a decline in Treasury yields.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, wasn't, Hartnett, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Bank of America Locations: U.S
GE Vernova can help meet the massive energy demands from artificial intelligence, according to Wells Fargo. The firm initiated coverage of the energy company with an overweight rating. Analyst Michael Blum said robust power demand tied to AI could lead to GE Vernova emerging as a key beneficiary, especially because the subsequent buildout will require an update to the power grid. GEV YTD mountain GE Vernova stock. The analyst also noted GE Vernova trades at a discount relative to the S & P 500.
Persons: Michael Blum, Blum Organizations: GE, General, GE Vernova Locations: Wells Fargo
Stocks are primed for another big stock market gain in 2025 given U.S. economic strength and likely deregulation under President-elect Donald Trump, according to Wells Fargo. The Wall Street bank expects the S & P 500 will advance to 6,600 by the end of 2025. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Wells Fargo is the latest big firm to release its 2025 S & P 500 year-end target, with virtually all shops thus far anticipating a roughly 10% gain or more for the broad market index. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin this week said he expects the S & P 500 to end next year at 6,500. The S & P 500 surged 24% in 2023, and is up more than 23% this year.
Persons: Donald Trump, Darrell Cronk, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Brian Belski, Cronk Organizations: Wells, Investment Institute, BMO, UBS, CNBC, & $ Locations: Wells Fargo, Tuesday's
Trump has said that undocumented immigrants share the blame for America’s once-in-a-generation home affordability crisis, but the president-elect’s deportation plans may backfire, driving up the cost of homebuying even further. There is a need for more construction workers, as well: There were 282,000 construction jobs open as of September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Immigrant labor is really important for our ability to continue to build homes affordably,” said Tobin. More than one-third of construction workers in the labor force are foreign-born, according to the US Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey. In some states, that share is much higher: In California, New Jersey and Texas, more than half of construction workers are immigrants.
Persons: CNN — Duewight Garcia overstayed, Garcia, ” Garcia, Donald Trump’s, Trump, America’s, Riordan Frost, Frost, ” Frost, Jim Tobin, , Tobin, , Duewight Garcia, Edward Pinto, ” Pinto, Stan Marek, MAREK, it’s, ” Marek, Trump’s, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, ” Vance, Marek, they’re, Jennie Murray, ” CNN’s Tami Luhby Organizations: CNN, New, Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, National Association of Home Builders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pew Research, Survey, American, National Immigration Forum, Trump, Housing Center, American Enterprise Institute, Labor, The New York Times, National Immigration Locations: Honduras, New York City, America, California , New Jersey, Texas, New York, California, Wells Fargo, Houston
Global stocks have largely fallen as the U.S. has rallied, the result of a confluence of factors. The fund gauges how global stocks minus U.S. equities are performing, and it features names such as Taiwan Semiconductor , Tencent and Novo Nordisk . The broad market index was marginally higher on the day and has soared nearly 24% year to date. The dollar index has jumped more than 2% in November, and has climbed nearly 5% year to date. .DXY 3M line Dollar index The underperformance of global stocks might provide some temptation to dive in at a time when they appear undervalued.
Persons: hasn't, Donald Trump, Nick Colas, MSCI ACWI, Colas Organizations: White, DataTrek Research, ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tencent, Novo Nordisk, ACWX Locations: U.S
AdvertisementAndre Nader found himself in a financial hole after losing money trading options. He shifted his investment strategy and started buying low-cost index funds. He owns various Fidelity and Vanguard index funds, including VTI and VXUS. Andre Nader lost a good chunk of money in the stock market in his early 20s. Nader, who considers himself "semi-FIRE'd" since his wife still works, owns various Fidelity and Vanguard index funds.
Persons: Andre Nader, VXUS, Nader, Nader —, , I've Organizations: Fidelity, Vanguard, Bogleheads, Meta, Market, Index Fund Locations: San Francisco
What exactly President-elect Donald Trump's second term means for the stock market will be the question investors continue to grapple with in the week ahead. Nvidia earnings results will also be on deck as investors deal with stubbornly high interest rates as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged past 44,000 for the first time ever, and the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite similarly posted new records. Sales of Blackwell and Grace Blackwell are expected to start to show up in results next year. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF has surged 11% this month.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jimmy Chang, Jensen Huang, CNBC's, Blackwell, Grace Blackwell, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Kumar, Jensen, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Novavax, Ken Mahoney, Trump, There's, Mahoney, Rockefeller's Chang, Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Rockefeller Global Family, Treasury, Nvidia, Blackwell, Health, Human Services Department, Moderna, Asset Management, Regional Banking ETF, Federal, White, FWDBONDS, Housing, Walmart, Lowe's, Palo Alto Networks, Philadelphia Fed, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere, PMI, PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services Locations: China, U.S, NAHB, . Kansas, Michigan
The global 60/40 strategy has seen a 27% cumulative return since 2022 through Oct. 31, according to Vanguard data. Traditionally, stocks and bonds move in opposite directions, which helps lower the volatility of this traditional portfolio. But that didn't work in 2022, when stocks and bonds both suffered and the 60/40 tanked, which had many declaring the strategy dead. The 60/40 portfolio tends to be shorthand for a balanced, diversified portfolio, with specific allocations based on investors' individual needs. For instance, Morningstar's index that reflects a 60/40 portfolio is up about 15% year to date.
Persons: Todd Schlanger, it's, Dan Lefkovitz, Morningstar, Lefkovitz, doesn't, Amy Arnott, Price, Jared Woodard, Woodard, Morningstar's, Vanguard's Schlanger, Schlanger, Organizations: Vanguard, Morningstar, Commodities, Bank of America, Fund, Bloomberg U.S, U.S .
When Andre Nader got laid off, he and his wife had enough in savings that he didn't have to job search. To go from 'semi FIRE' to 'full FIRE,' he calculated his family of 3 would need $5.6 million. He and his wife were living and working full-time in tech in San Francisco, raising a toddler, and loosely planning on eventually leaving the expensive Bay Area. His "enough number" is also different — it's closer to $5.6 million, he told Business Insider. His "enough number" is constantly shifting, but here's how he came up with $5.6 million for a family of three living in San Francisco.
Persons: Andre Nader, doesn't, , Meta, Nader, They'd, I'm, I've, outsized, he's, Roth Organizations: Service, FIRE, Affordable, UC, Social Security, Vanguard, Market, Index Fund Locations: San Francisco, Meta, California
Cryptocurrencies and banks have been on a tear since President-elect Donald Trump's victory last week, and Societe Generale thinks these "Trump trades" have more room to run into January. The firm specifically underscored bank stocks, companies exposed to the reshoring theme, small-cap names and crypto. "Trump trades are in full bloom and should continue to outperform until Inauguration Day, in our view," U.S. chief economist Stephen Gallagher wrote in a Thursday research note. Gallagher is not the only one on Wall Street who thinks the "Trump trade" has more legs. Societe Generale said its Trump 2.0 thematic basket has jumped more than 7% in the week since the election, but it is only up 15% in 2024, compared to the S & P 500 's 25% year-to-date gains.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Stephen Gallagher, Russell, bitcoin, Gallagher, Jason Draho Organizations: Societe Generale, Trump, US, US Banks, SG Global, Wall, UBS Locations: US
Select Quality Equity Fund (GQEPX) is up 33% in 2024, outpacing the S & P 500's 27% year-to-date total return. It has also outperformed 99% of funds in its category over the past five years, per Morningstar. This matches the rest of the firm's fund strategies, GQG portfolio manager Brian Kersmanc told CNBC. "We focus on this concept of forward quality," Kersmanc explained. So they're considered that sort of a blue chip, almost widow-and-orphan stock within the portfolio," Kersmanc said.
Persons: Morningstar, GQEPX, Brian Kersmanc, Eli Lilly, Kersmanc, Rajiv Jain, it's, Philip Morris, , It's, they're Organizations: GQG Partners, Equity Fund, CNBC, Nvidia, Exxon Mobil, Kersmanc, Exxon Locations: Florida, GQEPX
The CBOE Volatility Index , known on Wall Street as the VIX, helps traders track when a market rally is actually unhealthy, said DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas. Monday's close for the VIX around 15 "is a healthy sign" for the temperature of the market as it advances, Colas wrote to clients. To put it succinctly: "Rallies built on an elevated VIX signal a bubble," he wrote. That's a lesson market participants learned, during the dot-com bubble of the mid- to late-1990s, he said. In the current bull market, dating back to the fourth quarter of 2022, however, the VIX has been largely "well behaved," Colas argued.
Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Donald Trump, , Monday's, Colas, That's, Jessica Rabe, Trump Organizations: Research, U.S
President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House has sent ripples through global financial markets, with many investors looking to recalibrate their portfolios for a dramatically different policy landscape ahead. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest rates for corporate borrowers. Trump's tariffs Perhaps the biggest concern for investors globally is Trump's campaign promise of aggressive new tariffs , including the potential for a universal 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. However, some Asian nations might benefit if higher tariffs on China prompt manufacturers to relocate. Europe Most analysts agree that U.S. trade tariffs are likely to hurt Europe, with some companies able to navigate the challenges better than others.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Mislav Matejka, David Seif, Goldman Sachs, Gareth Leather, Macquarie, Aditya Suresh, Mark Diethelm, Diethelm, Emmanuel Cau, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: White, Republican, Trump, U.S, Nasdaq, Treasury, Nomura, Federal Reserve, Asia Capital Economics, Capital Economics, U.S ., Union, Morningstar, Logitech, Barclays Locations: Congress, Treasurys, Trump's, U.S, United States, Korea, Taiwan, China, Vietnam, Asia, India, Europe
"For example, during Trump's previous administration, deregulation in the energy sector boosted oil and gas stocks, benefiting energy ETFs." Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (BND), two of the world's largest bond ETFs, and longer-term funds like iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Crypto ETFS having big year and getting bigger Since launching in January, crypto ETFs have attracted roughly $70 billion in assets, one of the most successful ETF launches ever. Bitcoin ETFs including the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest bitcoin ETF by assets under management, have seen significant inflows since October. Rosenberg at Texas Capital acknowledges that certain ETF sectors, like industrials ( Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF , or VIS; iShares U.S. Industrials ETF , or IYJ), "could be hurt by more tariffs."
Persons: Trump, Tom Lydon, John Davi, iShares Russell, ROE, Matt Bartolini, Bartolini, Gavi, Edward Rosenberg, Gary Gensler, Michael Novogratz, Cathie Wood, Todd Sohn, Wood, Davi, Rosenberg, industrials Organizations: Astoria, CNBC, Potential Trump, Bank ETF, Assets ETF, Trump, ETF Research, Street Global Advisors, Regional Bank ETF, Treasury, Aggregate Bond, Vanguard, Fund, Treasury Bond ETF, Texas, SEC, Commodity Futures, Galaxy Digital Holdings, ARK, Innovation, ARKK, Downside, China ETF, Texas Capital, Index, Industrials, U.S, Edge Locations: Astoria, Congress, rulemaking, Coinbase, China, Mexico
Since Trump's win, the market has already seen some major gains. Those sectors in particular had several winners in the rally following Trump's 2016 win , and analysts believe gains may likewise be in store this time around – especially for energy. Defense stocks could also see some gains, according to Barclays analyst David Strauss. That would be above the 14.2% rally the stock saw after Trump's first win from Nov. 7, 2016, until year's end. Among the 15 analysts covering it, 11 have a hold rating, while only two have a strong buy or buy rating.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Wells, Roger Read, David Strauss, Trump, Chris Caso, Trump's, Huntington Ingalls, it's Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Energy, Trump, Defense, Barclays, Semiconductor, Wolfe Research, CNBC Pro, ConocoPhillips Locations: industrials, China, Texas
Trump favors slashing the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%. To find a group of beneficiaries from lower corporate tax rates, Goldman screened for stocks that have seen the highest median corporate tax rate over the past ten years. Companies on the list pay median corporate tax rates higher than the S & P 500 median of 21%. CEO Bob Iger's media company also has one of the highest ten-year median corporate tax rates found by Goldman, at 29%. Hilton has also paid a ten-year median corporate tax rate of 29%.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Trump, Trump's, Goldman, Disney, Bob Iger's, FactSet, Hilton Organizations: White, Goldman, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S . House, GOP, Republican, Companies, DIS, Disney, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, FactSet, Delta Airlines, American Express
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on November 07, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures hovered near the flatline Thursday night after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit records in a postelection rally and investors weighed the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut. S&P 500 futures and futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 0.03% and 0.05% each. The moves higher continue the market rally from Wednesday in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump's victory, during which the Dow and S&P 500 rose to their best days since November 2022. The postelection surge put all three of the major averages are on pace for strong weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up about 4.3% and the Dow higher by nearly 4%.
Persons: Dow, Donald Trump's, Jerome Powell, Scott Helfstein, Trump Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Global, Republican, Fed Locations: New York City . U.S, Thursday's
The S & P 500 could rally nearly 23% into 2025 if the Republicans sweep the election, according to Jay Hatfield, founder & CIO of InfraCap. Specifically, Hatfield said he sees the broad market index climbing to 7,000 next year. The odds of that scenario grew overnight, as former President Donald Trump took the lead in the U.S. presidential race over Vice President Kamala Harris. Despite the current electoral backdrop, Hatfield cautioned he's not as confident as the market is about Trump regaining the presidency. "It seems like the odds might be a little bit ahead of the data so far," he told CNBC.
Persons: Jay Hatfield, Hatfield, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris, it's, he's Organizations: Republicans, InfraCap, Republican, U.S, NBC, GOP, NBC News, Trump, CNBC Locations: North Carolina, Virginia
JPMorgan’s favorite stock picks heading into November
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
With the election around the corner, JPMorgan has updated its top ideas list that target growth, income, value and short-selling strategies. Yet, JPMorgan thinks that trajectory can keep going, as it has an overweight rating on the stock with a $300 price target. JPMorgan's overweight rating and target of $1,100 on the name also implies more than 34% upside from here. JPMorgan also highlighted the newly added Regency Centers as one of its growth strategies for the new trading month. Shares have jumped more than 7% this year, and JPMorgan's target implies almost 8% upside from Friday's close, on par with its average target of $77.12.
Persons: JPMorgan's, Carvana, Eli Lilly, David Ricks Organizations: JPMorgan, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Regency Centers, Caterpillar Locations: Carvana
The major stock benchmarks rallied Friday but were lower last week, with the Nasdaq leading the way lower after reaching new highs. Eight other Club names reported earnings last week, including Eli Lilly and Eaton. Despite indications from Big Tech that Nvidia's AI chips will remain in hot demand, the Club stock fell 4.3% for the week. The S & P 500 , which is less tech-weighted, fell nearly 1.4% for the week, making it back-to-back weekly losses for the broader market index. Earnings After analyzing earnings reports from 14 of our portfolio companies last week, there is only one Club name on the docket this week.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Eaton, Jim Cramer, financials Goldman Sachs, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, That's, Jerome Powell, We're, we'll, Archer, Johnson, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Nasdaq, Devices, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, Club, Nvidia, Dow, Intel, AMD, Dow Jones, Visa, American Express, JPMorgan, Bond, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Treasury, White, DuPont, Election, Protection, Electronics, Industrial, Constellation Energy, Marriott, Century Fox, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Goodyear Tire, Cirrus, Diamondback Energy, Daniels, Midland, Apollo Global Management, Ferrari, Restaurant Brands, Emerson Electric, Devon Energy, Novo Nordisk, CVS Health, Howmet Aerospace, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, Cedar Fair Entertainment, Toyota, American Electric Power Company, Johnson Controls, Dine Brands, Holdings, AMC Entertainment, Qualcomm, Coty, COTY, Energy, Barrick, Halliburton, HAL, Hershey, Air Products & Chemicals, Warner Bros ., Arista Networks, Rivian Automotive, Trade, Icahn Enterprises, Sony, SONY, Paramount, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange Locations: BlackRock, Florida, China, Sluggishness, Cleveland, New York City, U.S
The S&P 500 enjoyed a compound annual growth rate of 12.1% from Trump’s surprise election in November 2016 through Biden’s 2020 victory, according to CFRA. “The Trump market was so strong because of a combination of very low inflation, very low interest rates and tax cuts,” said Stovall. The S&P 500’s growth rate under Democrats is 10% compared with 6.7% under Republicans, according to CFRA. In those six years since 1945, where such a dynamic has been in place, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a sizzling growth rate of 16.8%. In fact, the market has generally performed better during times of higher, not lower, tax rates across changes in all three categories, BMO found.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, ” Trump, Biden, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Bill Clinton, Kamala Harris, “ Biden, ” Stovall, Trump, Clinton, , , Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, CFRA, ” Brian Belski, Richard M, Nixon, George W, Bush, . Bush, , Richard Nixon, Bush –, ” Belski, Gridlock, Harris, BMO’s Belski Organizations: New, New York CNN, Biden’s, CFRA Research, Biden, Trump, Wall, , Democrats, Republicans, Gross, Democratic, BMO Capital Markets, Clinton, Congress, Investors, Republican, White, BMO Locations: New York
With polling forecasting a close race in the U.S. presidential election , UBS is eyeing two baskets of stocks to prepare for either outcome. Overall, UBS said stocks within its Trump administration beneficiaries basket indicate a win for the former president next week. Here is a look at some of the stocks UBS has placed in each grouping. Also, a Trump administration could roll back some actions that were favorable to utilities with exposure to renewables. Other sectors that can benefit from a Harris win include homebuilding as well as child care and employment agencies, Garthwaite added.
Persons: Andrew Garthwaite, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Garthwaite, Harris, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Trump Organizations: U.S, UBS, Institute of International Finance, Trump, Citigroup, Goldman, Citi, Nike, Democratic Locations: U.S, China, Goldman Sachs, Beijing
Futures tied to the broad market index added nearly 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched up by 0.1%. Alphabet kicked off a major week for megacap tech earnings. The Google parent exceeded analysts' expectations as the company saw strong quarterly revenue growth from its cloud business, leading shares up 5% after market close. In anticipation of the Big Tech earnings releases, investors drove the Nasdaq Composite to a fresh record during Tuesday's trading session. "We are closely monitoring tech earnings releases to ensure businesses investment in artificial intelligence and other productivity enhancing tools remains robust to support strong future earnings growth."
Persons: Dow, It's, Rob Haworth, Haworth Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow, Google, AMD, Tech, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Big Tech, NASDAQ, U.S, Bank Asset Management
The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) has jumped nearly 5% since the fourth quarter began on Oct. 1, while the S & P 500 is ahead a little more than 1%. In the event of a Trump win but with a divided Congress, the S & P 500 is likely to remain flat in the days following the election, Emanuel wrote. Evercore ISI expects the S & P 500 falling in the 10 days after the election, to roughly 5,700, as markets re-price their expectations. 3Fourteen Research co-founder Pies expects a Harris win would translate into a drop in cyclical and small-cap stocks, and spur investors to turn to high-quality tech names. However, a Harris win, with a split Congress, is an outcome that could spur a drop in the S & P 500 immediately after the election, down to about 5,525, according to Evercore ISI.
Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Mike Mullaney, Trump, Harris, Julian Emanuel, Warren, CNBC's, Emanuel, Evercore, Jeff Schulze, Evercore ISI's Emanuel Organizations: U.S, Nasdaq, NBC, Boston Partners, Treasury, Trump, Republican, Regional Banking, Evercore ISI, 3Fourteen Research, Democratic, ClearBridge Investments, ISI
Tech stocks could be in for a reckoning, this chart shows
  + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Since then, the XLK is down 6% relative to the broad market index. "The level it peaked at almost exactly coincides with where the Tech ETF peaked on a relative basis in 2000. Not exactly what you want to see if you're an investor putting new money to work within Tech," he wrote. The SMH closed Friday at $252.96, and the strategist expects the $233 level to be tested near term. "We still exercise some degree of caution when we view Technology stocks, as short term trends and near-term momentum appear to be stalling," O'Hara wrote.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Roth MKM, JC O'Hara, O'Hara, Wells Organizations: Wolfe Research, Tech ETF, VanEck Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Microsoft, Apple Locations: Wells Fargo
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