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☆ Fade the euphoria? Here's what could go wrong with the Trump trade
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks exploded higher, bonds tanked and crypto boomed to historic peaks, indicating lofty hopes for when the president-elect takes office in January. However, there's still a lot of game left to be played, and the score could change a lot in future days. Essentially, strategists worry Trump's plan for punishing tariffs, higher spending and lower taxes will send bond yields higher, generally a recipe for trouble in stocks. "The question for me is how much can the Trump rally extend in the short term, but it strikes me that selling long positions into a rally makes a good deal of sense." "This suggests an asymmetric risk/reward framework with a much higher probability of downside than upside," said Lisa Hornby, head of U.S. fixed income at Schroders.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Stocks, there's, Mark Dowding, Lisa Hornby Organizations: Trump, RBC Global Asset Management, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, Schroders

The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson

The latest drubbing in the world's biggest bond markets, which last year suffered a record rout, does not yet point to any dysfunction in the markets themselves, investors said. But in echoes of the volatile conditions seen during March's banking crisis, trading in euro zone benchmark German government bond futures were briefly interrupted on Thursday when bond yields spiked. U.S. and British 10-year yields were also set to end the week more than 20 bps higher , . ING said earlier on Friday that this week's data was strong enough to push yields higher even if jobs numbers interrupt the moves. "It won't be as bad as that, but higher rates and higher yields could lead to negative returns and pressure returns on equity markets."

Persons: Mike Riddell, Jan von Gerich, Mark Dowding, Gael Fichan, Fichan, BlueBay's Dowding, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Harry Robertson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S, Federal, Allianz Global Investors, Fed, of, European Central Bank, BlueBay Asset Management, Syz, ING, Global, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Australia, British, Germany, Britain, U.S, of England

SummarySummary Companies European banks, bonds, CDS sell offDeutsche Bank CDS rise to highest since late 2018Confidence hurt, outlook dimsLONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - Confidence in European banks deteriorated further on Friday, with the cost of insuring against a debt default rising sharply as the profit outlook for the sector dimmed. Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) five-year credit default swaps (CDS) jumped 19 basis points (bps) from Thursday's close to 222 bps, rising to their highest since late 2018, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed. The prospect that interest rates may be close to peaking, as financial markets are signalling, would also curb banks' profit margins on lending. BOND WATCHEuropean banks' Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt came under fresh selling pressure, with Deutsche AT1 prices down 6 cents, according to Tradeweb data. The selloff in AT1s highlighted concerns about rising funding costs for European banks and helped explain why the sector was facing renewed pressure on Friday, analysts said.

SVB's meltdown sparked a partisan battle in Washington on Monday, with Democrats arguing that a Trump-era change to bank oversight rules undermined the stability of regional banks. In the money markets, indicators of credit risk in the U.S. and euro zone banking systems edged up. [1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. On Monday morning, U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. A furious race to reprice interest rate expectations also sent waves through markets as investors bet the Fed will be reluctant to hike next week.

Biden said his administration's actions over the weekend meant "Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe", while also promising stiffer regulation after the biggest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Shares in U.S. banking giants JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) nevertheless weakened. But your second thought is, how big was that crisis, how big were the risks that this step had to be taken?" U.S. regulators stepped in on Sunday after the collapse of SVB, which had seen a run after a big bond portfolio hit. [1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023.

Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling 15%. Biden said his administration's rapid actions at the weekend should reassure Americans that the U.S. banking system is safe, and promised stiffer bank regulation after the country's biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. "Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe. But big U.S. banks including JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) also weakened. In the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone.

[1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling more than 15%. Dowding said he did not think that a lot of the issues affecting U.S. banks would be present in European lenders. It said Silicon Valley Bank UK had loans of around 5.5 billion pounds and deposits of around 6.7 billion pounds as of March 10. U.S. banks lost more than $100 billion in stock market value late last week following SVB's failure, while European banks have now lost a similar amount, a Reuters calculation showed.

Markets remained fragile, with European bank stocks tumbling over 5% on Monday and U.S. banks set to open lower (.SX7P). Markets also moderated their view on UK rates and were pricing in a roughly 75% chance of a 25 bps hike when the Bank of England meets next week. Goldman Sachs said on Sunday the banking stress meant it no longer expected the Fed to hike rates next week. "It's not going to want to go clattering in with another 50 (bps hike) and see some other financial institution getting hosed." A new Fed bank funding scheme aimed at addressing some of Silicon Valley Bank's apparent problems with losses in its bond portfolio is expected to further help with stability for banks and bonds.

☆ Hedge funds stand to lap up bearish profits from bank stock rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - Hedge funds ended last week positioned to scoop up winning profits from bearish positions on bank stock falls, according to a note by Goldman Sachs sent to clients late on Sunday. They sold financially themed shares and banks for nine straight weeks but rather than only exiting long positions, funds added bearish bets, according to the note seen by Reuters. Financials was the most net sold sector globally for Goldman Sachs's prime brokerage division, the part of the bank which serves hedge funds, the note said. Hedge funds not only exited bullish positions on bank themed equities, they added short positions as of Friday, betting bank shares would fall, the Goldman note said. Regional and smaller U.S. bank shares have slid on concerns of a broader fallout in the banking sector.

That has pushed 10-year bond yields across the euro area to levels last seen during the bloc's 2011-2012 debt crisis , . "Equity markets appear expensive when considering the possibility of prolonged higher rates." Patrick Saner, head of macro strategy at Swiss Re, added that rising government bond yields also made risk assets relatively less attractive. And while government bonds were seen vulnerable to further selling, higher yields are still viewed as a buying opportunity. "In sovereign markets now, 10-year German bond yields are north of 2.70%.

☆ A top fund that returned over 19% last year is betting global bond markets are about to get blindsided again
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A fund that bet correctly last year on surprise reversals in British and Japanese bonds has a new contrarian stance. BlueBay Asset Management believes bond markets have underestimated hawkishness from global central banks. The fund has a new contrarian bet as BlueBay believes bond markets have underestimated hawkishness from global central banks. More monetary tightening is also anticipated from the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. So far, central bank officials have committed themselves to remaining data-dependent to inform future rate hikes.

As Truss spoke on Friday gains made in anticipation of the corporation tax U-turn faded. Ten-year gilt yields were 40 bps above session lows hit earlier on Friday, also pushed up by moves in bond yields globally. UNDERWHELMEDBritain's mini-budget three weeks ago triggered some of the biggest ever jumps in British bond yields, exposed vulnerabilities in the pensions sector -- undermining the country's financial stability. "How it impacts liquidity on the gilt market going forward is something we are monitoring closely." Rabobank's McGuire said pressure on UK assets could lead the BoE to re-intervene in the bond market or delay its quantitative tightening, bond-selling plans.

Few think another G7 central bank would be bold enough to intervene directly as Japan did on Thursday. But they say markets should prepare for more verbal intervention and more aggressive rate hikes as policymakers try to thwart the U.S. currency's ascent. The dollar surge follows aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, recession fears and geopolitical uncertainty following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The yen, its central bank sticking to ultra-loose policy even as others raise rates, has been the biggest loser. Richard Benson, co-chief investment officer at Millennium Global Investments, said aside from the SNB, which intervenes regularly, another central bank intervention was unlikely.

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