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☆ Money market funds hit another record high — but experts warn it's time to move out of cash. Where they see opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Assets in money market funds hit $6.3 trillion the week that ended Wednesday, another record high, according to the Investment Company Institute . The annualized 7-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 5.08%. History shows that when investors do move out of money market funds, they move into fixed income over equities, he said. Institutional investors will also continue to move into money market funds as the Fed cuts rates because any cash they have in direct money market investments, such as Treasury bills, will be hit by rate cuts quicker than money market funds, explained Peter Crane, founder of Crane Data, a firm that tracks the industry. Once you have the appropriate cash needs set aside, consider moving any excess funds into fixed income, Jenkin said.

Persons: Mark Cabana, Peter Crane, Crane, Ted Jenkin, Jenkin, Leslie Falconio, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Falconio Organizations: Investment Company Institute, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Institutional, Crane, CNBC, American Express, Bread Financial, UBS, U.S . Locations: UBS Americas

☆ The Fed needs more 'confidence' that inflation will be moving sustainably lower: BofA's Mark Cabana
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed needs more 'confidence' that inflation will be moving sustainably lower: BofA's Mark CabanaMark Cabana, Bank of America Securities head of U.S. rates strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the move in global bond yields, what it means for markets, the Fed's rate path outlook, and more.

Persons: Mark Cabana Mark Cabana Organizations: Bank of America Securities

☆ Bond rout won't end Fed balance sheet cuts, but endgame bubbling into view
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Since June 2022, the Fed has allowed more than $1 trillion of bonds to mature from its portfolio, including roughly $840 billion of Treasuries. QT drains liquidity from the banking system, reducing bank reserves parked at the Fed and cash stashed in its reverse repo facility. Others believe money market rates will start to move up in ways suggesting the system is short of cash. A New York Fed report in April projected an end to QT around the middle of 2025. A survey of major banks by the New York Fed released in August eyed an end to QT in mid-2024.

Persons: it's, ”, Kathy Bostjancic, Bostjancic, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester, “, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, Michael Cloherty, Mark Cabana, ” Cabana, Cabana, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Fed, San Francisco Fed, UBS, Bank Policy Institute, New York Fed, Bank of America, Daily, Derby, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Washington

☆ The End of LIBOR Is (Finally) Here
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The arduous, decade-long process to end the financial system’s reliance on a tarnished interest-rate benchmark, which once underpinned trillions of dollars in contracts across the globe, is almost over. From next week, the rate, known as the London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR for short, will cease to be published. LIBOR is a collective term for dozens of rates, denominated in different currencies, intended to reflect how much it costs banks to borrow from one another. In the end, roughly $10 billion in fines were meted out across the financial industry over accusations of LIBOR rigging, which led to efforts to move away from the tainted benchmark. “There are still issues, but it’s remarkable that LIBOR will go out with more of a whimper than a bang.

Persons: LIBOR, ”, Mark Cabana Organizations: London, Barclays, Bank of America Locations: LIBOR, British

The TGA is a liability on the Fed's balance sheet. This means that when the TGA goes down, reserves go up, effectively administering an injection of liquidity into the system. chartThis runs counter to the Fed's current stance of pursuing a tighter monetary policy, of which draining liquidity from the system via QT is a part. Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, calculates that since the Fed's QT program got underway last May, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $406 billion and the TGA has dropped $422 billion. "Fed QT to date has been largely absorbed by lower TGA," he and his team wrote in a recent note.

☆ Premarket stocks: Japan just delivered a lump of coal to investors across the globe
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

A surprise announcement from the Bank of Japan sent investors spinning and global markets reeling on Tuesday. The country’s central bank signaled that it would reverse two decades of policy precedent and begin to move away from loose monetary policy intended to keep wages and prices high. The Japanese Central Bank loosened the yield on its 10-year government bonds from 0.25% to 0.5%. The central bank said that inflation expectations have risen. Japan’s is the last major central bank to keep rates negative and this signals that it could be shifting its stance.

☆ Here's how the Federal Reserve confused the markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Markets had flip flopped Wednesday afternoon, after the Federal Reserve released its policy statement and new interest rate and economic forecasts. Swonk noted there is agreement among Fed officials to drive rates higher, and most officials forecast an end point for rates above 5% in 2023. Fed funds futures Thursday showed a high rate of 4.89% by next May, still below the Fed's target. Every month that goes by means there's somebody's debt that matures that's going to be needed to be refinanced at a higher rate." With the economy weakening, I think the inflation rate is going to fall faster than most economists do."

☆ Recession may force Fed rate cut in 2023, sending Treasury yields lower -BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"The Fed is likely going to show signs of becoming successful in their attempt to rein in inflation by softening the labor market," he said. "That's probably also going to be allowing for volatility within rates and across markets to compress to some extent." The Fed has raised interest rates by 375 basis points so far this year as it attempts to bring down the highest inflation in decades. Cabana expects the central bank to increase rates three more times until reaching a terminal rate of 5.25% in March. Ten-year Treasury yields - a global benchmark for a swathe of other asset classes - are set to decline from 4% in the first quarter next year to 3.25% by year end, Cabana said.

After decades of decline, even into negative territory, term premium is rising again. chartchartchart"We are in a tectonic phase of monetary policy and you are getting asset dislocations across the board, including long bonds," said Solomon Tadesse, head of North American Quant Strategies at Societe Generale. A 30-year bond bought and held to maturity by a pension fund, for example, quickly becomes 'off the run,' so liquidity risk ends up lifting the term premium. In the week through Oct. 21 the 30-year bond's price fell for an eighth straight week, the longest selling streak since 2004. If the Fed is successful in driving down inflation or the economy goes into recession, more investors will flock to 30-year bonds.

☆ Debt ceiling fights aren’t new. The next one could unleash ‘Armageddon’
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-29 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Fears are brewing that a showdown between Republicans and President Joe Biden over the debt ceiling in 2023 could present a similar moment of reckoning. “The debt ceiling is probably the biggest institutional quirk in the US that carries with it some global risk and risk to the Treasury market,” Setser said. While brinkmanship over the debt limit has become commonplace, the stakes could be higher now that financial markets are on edge. “If the US does not raise its debt ceiling and defaults on its debt, that is an Armageddon moment,” Day said. Yellen told CNN that it’s “utterly essential” that the debt ceiling is raised when necessary.

☆ Risks skew to Fed front-loading rate hikes, says Bank of America's Cabana
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRisks skew to Fed front-loading rate hikes, says Bank of America's CabanaMark Cabana, Bank of America head of U.S. rate strategy, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the future of rate hikes, the next move for yields and where Bank of America sees the terminal Federal Funds rate heading.

☆ Stocks could struggle as investors read the Fed's message to mean a recession is more likely
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Lerner said investors should also realize that higher rates in the bond market could pressure stocks as investors look for attractive yield elsewhere. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, said the more hawkish Fed does not mean the market will keep from rallying in the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter in a mid-term election year is often positive, after stocks crater in September and early October in the typical seasonal pattern. Stovall said he is less enthusiastic about a fourth quarter rally, but it could still happen. "I'm not giving up on a fourth quarter rally, but it might start with a lower case 'r'," he said.

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