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As the frontrunner for the Democratic party's nomination, Kamala Harris will have to run, for better or worse, on President Joe Biden's economic record. It will be just one challenge Harris will have to overcome to defeat her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump . Despite historically low unemployment and macro growth that has defied long-held expectations for recession, the economy is Biden's soft spot. "I don't see a lot of daylight between her views on economic policy and those of the administration," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics , a Democrat who has advised administrations of both parties. Possible change at the Fed One area of difference between Biden and Harris could be a crucial one — the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Biden, Harris, Donald Trump, She's, Greg Valliere, she's, There's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, nonfarm, Joseph LaVorgna, Biden's, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, reappoint Powell Organizations: Democratic, Biden, Republican, AGF Investments, Reuters, Moody's, Democrat, Economic Council, Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve, Senate, Beacon, Advisors Locations: California
Read previewFormer President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates before the presidential election, according to an interview he did with Bloomberg Businessweek. The Federal Open Market Committee has two interest rate decisions scheduled before the election in July and September. "I think it's past time for them to cut interest rates," Zandi said. During a February interview with Fox News, Trump accused Powell of being "political" and planning interest rate cuts to coincide with the election. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates," Trump said, adding that "it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected."
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell, Mark Zandi, Powell, Zandi, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, he's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Business, Democratic, Federal, Reserve, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Fed, New Century Advisors, Fox News, Stanford's Business, Government, Society, Trump, Wall Street
At the end of July, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates. Some economists have recently been pointing to similar concerns with the Fed keeping interest rates high. As Sahm pointed out, it would take time for reduced interest rates to "flow through to the economy." "You want to begin a process of taking the pressure off of the economy," Sahm said. AdvertisementZandi said interest rates on credit cards and Buy Now, Pay Later rates could come down, along with a decline in auto lending rates and mortgage rates.
Persons: , Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell, Claudia Sahm, it's, Sahm, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Brian Rose, Rose, Zandi, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Moody's, Business, Federal, CME FedWatch, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Sahm Consulting, Federal Reserve, Democratic, UBS, Chicago Federal, Wall Street Journal
They also generally like to examine "core" inflation readings. The monthly core CPI reading was 0.1% in June, the smallest increase in about three years, since August 2021. Shelter inflation has moderated much slower than expected, one of the big reasons inflation hasn't yet fallen back to target, economists said. There were encouraging signals in the latest CPI report: Monthly shelter inflation dropped to 0.2% after being stuck at 0.4% for four consecutive months. Services inflation is the trouble spotInflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021.
Persons: David Paul Morris, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Sarah House, Aubrey George, George, Joe Seydl, Olivia Cross Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, CPI, Housing, of Labor Statistics, Morgan Private Bank, Capital Economics, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, says that he’s watching for insights on banks’ delinquency rates. Consumers have increasingly fallen behind on or missed payments in recent months as they get squeezed by high interest rates. But banks could see higher losses compared to 2023 if the economy were to experience a downturn, the Fed warned. Investors are wagering that the central bank will begin easing rates as soon as September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “The worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation: higher rates and recession,” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Dave Sekera, Stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Matt Egan, it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, Erika Tulfo, “ It’s, Neil Saunders, Abrigo, Gen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United, United States ’, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morningstar, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, JPMorgan, CNBC, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, CNN, GlobalData, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, China
The Federal Reserve, which acts independently from the Oval Office, was slow to act to contain hot inflation, for example. That Biden is seen as stoking high inflation is due somewhat to optics: he took office in early 2021, around the time inflation spiked notably, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. At a high level, hot inflation is largely an issue of mismatched supply and demand. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Justin Sullivan, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Wu Shaoyang, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, Eric Baradat, , Michael Strain, Strain, Jerome Powell, Olivier Douliery Organizations: CNN, Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Qingdao Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, Afp, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, . Federal Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, Qingdao, Shandong Province, China, North America, Washington, It's
The US economy faces a new threat
  + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
‘The labor market may be turning’To be clear, the jobs market is by no means imploding. Powell highlighted these changes, telling lawmakers that recent indicators “send a pretty clear signal that labor market conditions have cooled considerably” from two years. The current risk is that the Fed is injecting inflation-fighting medicine into an economy that no longer needs it. “A balanced labor market with too restrictive rates from the Fed will not remain balanced for long,” Brusuelas said. “Equally as worrisome for the Fed should be the potential for a sharper deterioration in the labor market and economic activity.
Persons: it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Jobs, Powell, ” Brusuelas, Ken Kim, Kim, ” Kim, Donald Trump’s, Zandi, Fed Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, Fed, CNN, KPMG Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell will get necessary data for rate cuts in September, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the narrative around the Federal Reserve has shifted to rate cuts, whether July data sets the stage for Fed moves in September, and much more.
Persons: Powell, Mark Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal Reserve
Read previewA historic surge of corporate bankruptcies is hitting Wall Street, with this year's volume of filings already above levels seen in the past 13 years, S&P Global Intelligence reported. When, earlier this year, hope was much stronger for a quick and significant reduction to interest rates, bankruptcies remained more subdued, S&P previously noted. AdvertisementYet, deteriorating consumer spending is also grinding down on corporate prospects. AdvertisementAmong notable June bankruptcies tracked by S&P Global, were the electric vehicle maker Fisker, as well as Redbox DVD rental operator Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment. That's followed by healthcare and industrials, S&P Global reported.
Persons: , Tacking, Mark Zandi, Zandi, That's Organizations: Service, P Global Intelligence, Business, Global, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Fed, Nike, Walgreens, P Global, Soul Entertainment
When, earlier this year, hope was much stronger for a quick and significant reduction to interest rates, bankruptcies remained more subdued, S&P previously noted. As the Federal Reserve has held interest rates at the 5.25%-5.50% level for nearly a year now, some analysts have called the central bank out for risking unnecessary damage to the economy. AdvertisementYet, deteriorating consumer spending is also grinding down on corporate prospects. AdvertisementAmong notable June bankruptcies tracked by S&P Global, were the electric vehicle maker Fisker, as well as Redbox DVD rental operator Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment. That's followed by healthcare and industrials, S&P Global reported.
Persons: , Tacking, Mark Zandi, Zandi, That's Organizations: Service, P Global Intelligence, Business, Global, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Fed, Nike, Walgreens, P Global, Soul Entertainment
"He caused the inflation," Trump said of Biden during the June 27 debate. "He decimated the economy, absolutely decimated the economy," Biden said. 'Neither Trump nor Biden is to blame'Global events beyond Trump's or Biden's control wreaked havoc on supply-and-demand dynamics in the U.S. economy, fueling higher prices, economists said. "In my view, neither Trump nor Biden is to blame for the high inflation," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and several goods from China, which Biden largely kept intact.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Andrew Harnik, Trump, Biden, David Wessel, Mark Zandi, Mario Tama, Wessel, Zandi, Stephen Brown, , Michael Strain, Strain Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Biden, Trump, Hutchins, Brookings Institution, Finance, Social Security, Medicare, Moody's, Port, International Monetary Fund, North, Capital Economics, American, American Enterprise Institute, Federal, U.S Locations: Atlanta, U.S, Ukraine, China, Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California, North America, It's
“Interpreting economic data is like interpreting a Monet painting in the best of times,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNN in an interview. “When President Biden takes credit for all jobs and says Trump lost all the jobs? “And until it does, we won’t have a real good sense of what the new metrics are that reflect the direction in the economy and consumer confidence.”Twenty years ago, presidential elections came down to “jobs, jobs, jobs,” Brusuelas said. “They’re going to be thinking, ‘Wait a minute, all this money’s going into this and can replace the job that guys like me do? For the average person, the economic data only means so much anyways, Brusuelas said, adding that it comes down to “protein and petrol” versus percentage points.
Persons: Monet, ” Mark Zandi, it’s, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, “ Trump, Biden, ” Zandi, , Trump, , Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, “ That’s, It’s, They’re, ’ ”, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Moody’s, Trump, RSM, Democrat, Nvidia, Locations: what’s
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailProlonged high rates will be 'corrosive' to economy, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss expectations for Fed interest rates, economic signals for cuts, and more.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Moody’s
Kevin Lamarque | ReutersImmigration — both authorized and unauthorized — has helped the U.S. job market sustain a fiery run in recent months without reigniting inflation, economists and analysts say. This dynamic — a heating job market and cooling inflation — is in part the result of increased inflows of immigrants. Typically, a hot labor market walks a tightrope that could easily collapse into reheated inflation. But the Brookings researchers recalculated the government's estimates — this time, factoring the impact of immigrants on the labor pool. They found that with immigration, the 2024 U.S. job market could safely absorb between 160,000 and 200,000 monthly job gains.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, Reuters Immigration —, , Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs, Michael M, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Zandi, Mandel Ngan, Biden, Donald Trump, Brendan McDermid Organizations: U.S . Border Patrol, Reuters Immigration, of Labor Statistics, FedEx, Broadway, Santiago, Getty, CNBC, Brookings Institution, Brookings, U.S, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, Afp, White, Republican Locations: U.S, Mexico, Brownsville , Texas, New York City, United, Lanham , Maryland, United States, Las Vegas , Nevada
Gas prices today are not cheap – but they are miles away from that point. Of course, gas prices were cheaper during the Covid-19 pandemic because demand was severely low. In part because they are so visible, gas prices play a key psychological role in how people feel about the economy. “But there is more work to be done — the President remains committed to lowering prices at the pump for Americans and maintaining a stable and secure energy supply.”Real gas prices are cheaper than in 2018Many people may wish for the $2 gas prices of last decade. “Inventories are likely headed back to normal levels, which will keep gasoline prices lower throughout the summer driving season.
Persons: New York CNN —, , Patrick De Haan, it’s, “ We’ve, De Haan, Joe Biden’s, Mark Zandi, Angelo Fernández Hernández, That’s, , Rob Thummel, ” Thummel Organizations: New, New York CNN, AAA, Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, White, Moody’s Analytics, , CNN, Covid, US Energy Information Administration, White House Locations: New York, California, Utah, Washington, Idaho, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, United States, OPEC, Ukraine, Israel, Gaza
Some analysts are eyeing zero rate cuts from the Fed this year. AdvertisementAfter the latest jobs report all but dismissed an interest rate cut in July, some analysts are taking it a step further, and expect no rate cuts at all this calendar year. That's more pessimistic than what investors continue to bet on, with fed fund futures indicating at least one 25-basis point rate cut to occur in 2024. According to market veteran Ed Yardeni, the Federal Reserve should "take a vacation," and leave interest rates unchanged through 2024, he told CNBC-TV18. AdvertisementMeanwhile, Catalyst Capital's David Miller agreed that the Fed shouldn't cut interest rates in 2024, citing that this would allow inflation to run hotter.
Persons: RBC's Lori Calvasina, , That's, It's, Lori Calvasina, Ed Yardeni, Capital's David Miller, Mark Zandi, I've Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Treasury, Federal, CNBC, TV18, Yardeni Research, Moody Analytics, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed has hit its objective, so they should lower rates: Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss why the Federal Reserve should cut rates, the metrics it bases its decisions on, and more.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation looks on track to get back to the Fed's target by end of year, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what's ahead for the Federal Reserve, the recent inflation read, if we will see a rate cut this year and more.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal Reserve
Opinion: Alito’s second red flag
  + stars: | 2024-05-26 | by ( Kirsi Goldynia | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +18 min
This is not the first time Alito has found himself in hot water over displaying a controversial flag on his property. The upside-down flag, a signal of distress, was adopted by Trump supporters who believed the false claim that the election had been stolen. (Alito said his wife had raised the upside-down flag in response to a disagreement with a neighbor. The discovery also comes at a time when the Supreme Court will be making a decision about Trump’s claims of sweeping presidential immunity, his get-out-of-jail-free card for the federal cases he faces. “The notion that the Supreme Court can be trusted to be an arbiter above partisan politics has suffered major blows in recent years.
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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Larry Adam, Kim Forrest, and Mark ZandiLarry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer, Kim Forrest, Bokeh Capital Partners chief investment officer, and Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the state of the economy, opportunities in the markets, and more.
Persons: Larry Adam, Kim Forrest, Mark Zandi Larry Adam, Raymond James, Mark Zandi Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners
Raymond James CIO: Tech is a 'shining star' this earnings season
  + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRaymond James CIO: Tech is a 'shining star' this earnings seasonLarry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer, Kim Forrest, Bokeh Capital Partners chief investment officer, and Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the impact of Fed uncertainty on the markets, investing in the AI boom, and more.
Persons: Raymond James, Larry Adam, Kim Forrest, Mark Zandi Organizations: Raymond James CIO, Tech, Bokeh Capital Partners
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump’s trade agenda amounts to a tripling-down of the trade war he waged during his first term in office. That’s nearly five times the total cost as a share of GDP from the 2018-2019 US-China trade war. Trump’s tariff proposals would cost the typical middle-income household at least $1,700 a year, the researchers found. Those aren’t comparable numbers,” Clausing said, referring to the amount of imports targeted by Biden and by Trump tariffs. Likewise, the US International Trade Commission found in a 2023 study that US importers “bore nearly the full cost” of tariffs.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, That’s, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, Clausing, aren’t, , Joe Biden, , Biden, ” Biden hasn’t, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, ” Clausing, Karoline Leavitt, , Bidenomics, ” Leavitt, Leavitt, Moody’s, Mark Zandi, ” Goldman Sachs, ” ‘, ” Chris Krueger Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, UCLA School of Law, CNN, ” Biden, Biden, Treasury Department, US International Trade Commission, , Cowen’s Washington Research Group Locations: New York, China, Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, United States, U.S, Washington
Fears of a potential banking crisis are on the rise as interest rates stay elevated. Interest rates are now at their highest levels since 2001 as the Fed keeps an eye on inflation. Markets have already seen 1 regional bank fail this year, according to FDIC data. According to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, the longer interest rates stay high, the more the Fed risks damaging the economy. "That's the kind of thing I'm worried about in the context of persistently high interest rates."
Persons: , Mark Zandi, That's, Barry Sternlicht, Sternlicht, Daniel Pinto Organizations: Fed, Service, Analytics, Yahoo Finance, Bank, Regulators, First Bank, Fulton Bank, Stanhope Capital, Bloomberg Locations: Philadelphia, America
Consumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. They've also declined for some groceries and other things, such as travel, according to the consumer price index. Physical goods prices have deflated in all but one month since May 2023, for example. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Downward pressure on goods prices has waned a bit in recent months as supply-and-demand dynamics have normalized, economists said.
Persons: Oscar Wong, They've, they've, Michael Pugliese, Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Hayley Berg, Hopper, There's, Brown Organizations: Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, North, Capital Economics, Finance, GameStop, AMC, U.S, Federal Reserve, Canadian, Moody's, Airlines Locations: Wells Fargo, North America, U.S
That increase is largely due to dynamics in the market for crude oil, which is refined into gasoline, economists said. Annual housing inflation declined to 5.5% in April from 5.7% in March. Shelter and gasoline inflation combined contributed more than 70% of the monthly CPI increase for all items, according to the BLS. Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — such as entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation. Wage growth has been one contributor to services inflation, for example, economists said.
Persons: Grace Cary, That's, Mark Zandi, we're, Zandi, Michael Pugliese, Trump, Stephen Brown, Pugliese Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, Moody's Analytics, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Finance, GameStop, AMC, Biden, North, Capital Economics, Supply Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
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