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☆ BOJ's hawkish rhetoric signals chance negative rates may end soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Having watered down YCC at its last policy meeting, the BOJ's next goal is to pull short-term rates out of negative territory early next year, sources have told Reuters. That leaves open the chance of an policy change in January, when the BOJ next reviews its quarterly price forecasts. Most expect an end to both YCC and negative rates. "It's an awfully big upgrade and shows how the BOJ had made estimates that were way too low," said former BOJ top economist Hideo Hayakawa, who expects negative rates to end in April. Even if it ends negative rates, nominal short-term borrowing costs will remain well below levels that neither stimulate nor cool the economy - estimated by analysts to stand somewhere near 2%.

Persons: Issei Kato, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda's, Haruhiko Kuroda, Kuroda, Mari Iwashita, Hideo Hayakawa, Takahide, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Daiwa Securities, Japan Center for Economic Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, U.S

☆ BOJ to heighten scrutiny on rising prices, yields at policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

All economists surveyed in a Reuters poll expect the central bank to maintain its short-term interest rate target of -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. Ueda told a recent interview the BOJ could have enough data by year-end to determine whether to end negative rates, heightening market expectations of a near-term policy shift. A Reuters poll for September showed most economists predicting an end to negative interest rates in 2024. Growing prospects of longer-for-higher U.S. interest rates have pushed the yen down near the 150-per-dollar level seen as Tokyo’s line-in-the-sand for possible currency intervention. Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities, expects the BOJ to tweak its dovish forward guidance in October and end its negative rate policy early next year.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda’s, Ueda, Haruhiko, Mari Iwashita, ” Organizations: Bank of, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Daiwa Securities Locations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan, U.S

☆ Analysis: BOJ's hawkish tilt suggests end to super-easy policy approaching
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Another board member, Junko Nakagawa, laid out the conditions for ending negative rates, notably a continued improvement in household confidence. "When we see many people share prospects that wages will keep rising, we may be able to exit (negative rates)." Less than half expect negative rates to end in 2024. There seems to be no consensus within the BOJ board, however, on when or how the bank would dismantle Kuroda's complex policy framework. Ueda said the BOJ could end negative rates if it believed that inflation would sustainably hold above the target.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Kim Kyung, Ueda, Tamura, Haruhiko Kuroda, Naoki Tamura, Kuroda, Mari Iwashita, Hajime Takata, Junko Nakagawa, Shinichi Uchida, Leika, Sam Holmes Organizations: Japan, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Daiwa Securities, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, U.S

☆ BOJ unlikely to move in April, most economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ will likely keep YCC unchanged at next week's meeting as it awaits more evidence of sustained wage growth, sources have told Reuters. Only three of 27 economists, or 11%, said the BOJ will start to scale-back its monetary stimulus next week, whereas 11 (41%) opted for the June meeting, the April 12-19 poll showed. He added the lowered U.S. and Japanese yields after the financial turmoil also decreased the urgency to tweak YCC, which has previously faced market attacks to break the upper limit. Compared with the March poll, fewer economists expect a sudden abolition of YCC to come without warning. Half of the 24 respondents anticipated another YCC tweak, if not an outright end, in April-June.

☆ Japan's business services prices perk up near BOJ's inflation target
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, March 27 (Reuters) - Japan's business-to-business services inflation picked up in February on a tourism rebound and rising labour costs, data showed, offering the central bank hope that steady wage hikes would aid in sustainably hitting its 2% inflation target. The services producer price index, which measures the prices companies charge each other for services, rose 1.8% in February from a year earlier, up from a 1.6% gain in January, BOJ data showed on Monday. Fees for services such as office cleaning, taxi and software development also rose, reflecting higher labour costs. "For services, the pass-through of rising costs isn't as smooth as those for wholesale goods," said Masato Higashi, head of the BOJ's price statistics division, told a briefing. "But when you look closely, the pass-through (of higher labour costs) is gradually broadening," he said.

☆ BOJ set to keep ultra-low rates at Kuroda's final policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"After conducting an examination of its policy framework, the BOJ will either abandon the 10-year yield target or shift to one targeting a shorter duration," she said. At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is set to maintain its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that for the 10-year bond yield around 0%. Some market players bet the BOJ could widen the band set around the 10-year yield target, allowing the yield to rise up to 0.75%, from the current 0.5%, as early as Friday. But many analysts polled by Reuters expect any tweak in YCC to happen after Ueda takes over as new governor. Ueda will chair his first policy meeting on April 27-28, when the board will produce closely watched, fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts extending through fiscal 2025.

☆ Economists say BOJ's Amamiya is top governor candidate, tightening this week unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Of the 24 economists who replied to the Jan 5-12 poll, 16, or 67%, chose Amamiya as the most likely candidate to become the next BOJ governor. Four economists in the poll, or 17%, chose Nakaso, who is seen less dovish than Amamiya, as the most likely candidate. In a September poll that asked the same question, Amamiya and Nakaso received 61% and 33% of economists' votes, respectively. Five analysts expected the unwinding of easing to start in April, at the first BOJ meeting under the new governor. Elsewhere in the poll, 83% of economists said Japanese nominal wages were unlikely to outpace rising consumer prices in 2023.

☆ Analysis: Bank of Japan's yield curve control in danger as policy backfires
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

In a sign of its resolve to defend the yield cap, the BOJ on Monday announced plans to conduct additional, emergency bond-buying. To be sure, with global commodity prices falling, private analysts agree with Kuroda that inflation will slow back toward the BOJ's target later this year. It's better to remove the 10-year yield target, but overhauling YCC would raise questions of accountability." Data on Friday will likely show Japan's core consumer prices rose 4.0% in December, double the BOJ's target and a fresh 41-year high, a Reuters poll showed. "If markets continue to ask more from the BOJ, YCC may not last that long."

☆ BOJ may unwind ultra-easy policy in 2023, nearly half of economists say- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) could unwind its ultra-loose monetary policy between March and October next year, according to almost half the economists in a Reuters poll on Monday, much sooner than predicted in previous projections. Of 26 economists polled, 11 expect the central bank will unwind its ultra-loose policy between March and October, the Dec. 8-15 poll found. Half, or 13, said the BOJ wouldn't scale back until 2024 or later and two still expect the next move to be more easing of policy. The most common means tipped by analysts for the BOJ to unwind stimulus would be a tweak to its forward guidance, according to 15 respondents. DEFENCE WITHOUT DEBTAsked about how Japan's defence budget spending increase would ideally be funded, nine of 20 economists chose tax hikes.

☆ Unfazed by yen's slump, BOJ seen keeping ultra-low rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Authorities have struggled to tame the yen's relentless declines as investors focus on the BOJ's ultra-low interest rates that make it an outlier among a global wave of central banks tightening policy to combat soaring inflation. Some market participants speculate the BOJ could tweak its dovish policy guidance amid growing public discontent over the weak-yen effect of its ultra-loose monetary policy. "With the Fed determined to combat inflation, a minor policy tweak by the BOJ will do little to narrow the gap between U.S. and Japanese monetary policy," said Iwashita. In July, the BOJ forecast core consumer inflation to hit 2.3% in fiscal year 2022 before slowing to 1.4% the following year. It projects the economy to expand 2.4% in the current fiscal year and rise 2% in fiscal 2023.

☆ BOJ seen sticking to ultra-low rates, defy global rate hike rush
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It's becoming hard for the BOJ to keep saying price rises will remain temporary," said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities. At a two-day policy meeting ending on Thursday, the BOJ is set to maintain its short-term rate target at -0.1% and that for 10-year government bond yields around 0%. Market players expect the U.S. central bank to raise rates by at least 75 basis points. The country's fragile recovery has forced the BOJ to remain an outlier among a global wave of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat surging inflation. At the policy meeting, the BOJ is expected to end as scheduled a pandemic-relief funding scheme this month and discuss adjustments to a policy guidance that flags the COVID-19 pandemic as the top economic risk.

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