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☆ Analysis: Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.

Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS

☆ Exclusive: EU to push for its debt to be included in government bond indexes- official
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Index inclusion "is something we are discussing with market participants at the moment, while we are also doing our internal analysis," the official said, looking at how the EU fulfills index providers' criteria. EU bonds are included in broad bond indexes but inclusion in dedicated government bond indexes compiled by the likes of Bloomberg, JPMorgan or FTSE Russell would be a game changer, as trillions of dollars of investor funds tracking the indexes would effectively become forced buyers. Big investors are also calling for index providers to treat the EU as a government. The EU official noted the bloc has elements of a sovereign, such as a budget and at least indirect taxing powers through member states' contributions. Cosimo Marasciulo, head of fixed income absolute return at Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said it was also calling for EU inclusion in government bond indexes.

☆ Markets start signalling Fed may be going too far - Amundi
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Marasciulo said bond market valuations looked better than a month ago after a sell-off that has seen benchmark U.S. and German government bond yields rise around 40 bps since February started. Near-term, Marasciulo said it made sense to bet against the market consensus, by favouring a 25 bps move from the Fed, through trades favouring a steepening of the U.S. yield curve. On the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday for the last time under outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Marasciulo said an end to yield curve control is "very likely". "So some sort of reaction function from the BOJ would tell us that probably the yield curve control should be the first thing to be reconsidered." A termination of yield curve control, which has helped pin down Japanese government bond yields, would steepen global yield curves by raising risk premiums on bonds overall, Marasciulo added.

Japan's 10-year bond yield, trading at 0.4%, fell on Wednesday but is not far off its highest levels since 2015. Total holdings of foreign bonds by Japanese institutional investors, excluding Japan's $1 trillion reserve portfolio, reached $3 trillion at their peak. GOING HOMEThe implications of higher inflation and a possible end to ultra-low rates are not lost on Japanese investors. Still, anticipating a shift, Japanese investors sold a net 2.1 trillion yen ($15.94 billion) of foreign bonds in December, marking a fourth straight month of selling. According to Nomura, Japanese investors have been far more active buyers of global and overseas equities than domestic stocks in the last decade.

The amount of new public-sector debt investors will have to absorb in 2023 will be twice as much as the previous record a decade ago, BofA notes. As early as November, the ECB's bond market contact group cited the high amount of debt private investors would have to buy as the most frequently mentioned concern. JPMorgan, the leader for euro government debt sales, expects a fall. The biggest challenge for governments will be timing, Dutch debt office head Saskia van Dun told Reuters last week. They will also have to be careful when picking maturities to issue and compensate investors enough to buy the debt, investors said.

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