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☆ A resilient economy and strong earnings are overpowering normal election worries
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD It's because the economy and earnings remain resilient. That is the main reason the S & P 500 is less than 2% from its historic high. Third quarter earnings for the S & P 500 are up 8.4%, well above the 6.0% estimated at the start of October. It's fourth quarter earnings that matter Remember, the most important thing to watch is the trend and whether it is accelerating or decelerating. The S & P 500 is up 50% in those two years.

Persons: There's, Tom Lee, Phil Mackintosh, Mackintosh, John Butters, Scott Chronert, Alec Young, MapSignals.com, Young, We're Organizations: Tech, Nasdaq, Democrat, Republican, Citigroup Locations: backwardation

☆ A guide to the wild week of trading, from Monday's 'flash crash' to the yen to the volatility spike
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

.VIX YTD mountain Cboe Volatility Index in 2024 That is literally what the VIX measures: expectations for volatility over the next 30 days. Was Monday a 'flash crash'? A "flash crash" is a sudden and severe price drop that lasts for a very short period, usually a few hours. "It appears that the sell-off of August 5th qualified as a flash crash, although it was rather modest by historical standards," he told me. During the 1987 flash crash, Higgins said an investor was trying to orchestrate trades on the phone while he was preparing to go to his relative's funeral.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Alec Young, haven't, Mark Higgins, Higgins Organizations: Bank of Japan, Yen Trust, JPMorgan Chase, Fund, Dow Jones Locations: Japan, backwardation

☆ Today's 'pain trade' is a rapidly rising market catching many investors off-guard
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A rapidly rising market has caught a lot of investors off-guard. He loves to watch what he calls the "pain trade," the move in the markets that would catch the largest number of active investors off-guard. Surveying Monday's late-day rally on the floor, Anderson looked up at the NYSE boards and said, "the pain trade is up." The S & P 500 is now within 1.4% of its old closing high of 5,254 from March 28th. The STOXX Europe 600, essentially the S & P 500 of Europe, is also less than 1% below an historic high.

Persons: Tim Anderson, Anderson, It's, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek, Ingersoll Rand, Parker, Hannifin, it's, Alec Young, MAPsignals.com Organizations: MND Partners, NYSE, Nasdaq, Utilities, Reuters, Southern Company, EatoN Corp Locations: Europe, industrials

The S & P 500 is closing out the first quarter on an epic win streak: The index is up 10% year to date and an amazing 25% in the past five months. Select S & P 500 sectors YTD Communication Services up 15% Technology up 12% Energy up 11% Financials up 11% Industrials up 10% Health Care up 8% The only sector down this quarter is real estate, off by 3% in the period. About 70% of the S & P 500 is in the green this year. The S & P 500 advance/decline has been on a tear since the middle of January, with far more stocks advancing on a daily basis than declining. "We saw persistent strength with the S & P 500 up every month from November through February, and this has nearly always been followed by more months of strength," he said.

Persons: Todd Sohn, Strategas, It's, Russell, Ned Davis, Davis, Alec Young Organizations: Communication Services, Technology, Energy, Care

☆ Some of the trillions parked in cash may trickle back in to stocks now that the market's rallying
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

2023: The year of chasing yield Investors historically chase after stock performance, but 2023 has been the year of chasing after yield performance. This year, the combined assets under management at money market funds grew to a record $6 trillion. There have been large inflows into short-term Treasury funds like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and, surprisingly, even into long-term Treasury ETFs like the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Still, some think a large chunk of the money in short-term Treasuries and money markets is "scared money" and will be "sticky." Those institutional investors "Don't want any money in cash because it will lag behind the stock market," he told me.

Persons: Paul McCulley, they're, Mark Lehman, Eric Balchunas, Jeff Seyffart, Alec Young, Steve Sosnick, Jim Besaw, Besaw, Mike O'Rourke, JonesTrading, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, Chris Murphy Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Citizens JMP Securities, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Schwab Money Fund, MapSignals, Interactive Brokers, Gentrust, UBS Locations: Susquehanna

☆ These companies are slashing earnings estimates, but the market may have sniffed that out already
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 was expected to see an earnings gain of 11% for the fourth quarter on Oct. 1, and that expectation is now down to 7.8%. "We're seeing larger estimate cuts than average for S & P 500 companies through the first month of the fourth quarter," John Butters at FactSet said. Roughly 60 companies in the S & P 500 have disclosed declines of 10% or more in their earnings expectations in the month of October, according to LSEG. Earnings revisions: Notable declines in airlines and cruise lines Here are some of the S & P 500 companies that have seen earnings estimates decline 10% or more since the start of the fourth quarter, according to LSEG. The markets have sniffed this out: What's next The stock market, of course, does not wait for analysts to cut earnings estimates.

Persons: John Butters, FactSet, Nick Raich, Refiners Valero, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Alec Young Organizations: Boeing, . Airlines, Companies, Cruise Lines American Airlines, Cruise Line, Alaska Air Group, Southwest Airlines, Airlines, Delta, Entertainment Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount Global, Fox, MGM Resorts, Ford, Motors, Pfizer, Merck, Petroleum, Phillips, Seagate, Texas, Banks, Capital Markets, Blackstone, Intel, JETS, Energy, Pharmaceuticals

☆ Another knock-on effect of higher interest rates: fewer stock buybacks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Another knock-on effect of higher rates: stock buybacks may be reduced. According to S & P Global, corporate America is sitting on roughly $2.5 trillion in cash. "Two years ago, corporations were getting almost nothing on their cash holdings," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S & P Dow Jones Indices. Buybacks decline A few weeks ago, S & P Global released its quarterly report on stock buybacks. The implication: in a higher interest rate environment, corporate America may be more inclined to hold cash as a hedge, which would imply fewer buybacks.

Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, buybacks, Alec Young, MAPSignals, Young, Silverblatt, Cash Organizations: P Global, Dow Jones, Global, Technology, Cash, Cash Kings Apple, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Cisco, Intel, IBM, Nvidia, Apple Locations: America

☆ Stocks are oversold, but need rates to stabilize before luring back buyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are up modestly in early trading Wednesday, but the usual signals of volume spikes and higher volatility are still not present. Yet here we are, with the 10-year at 4.55% yesterday and looking like it wants to get to 5.0% fast. Total equity volume yesterday was 10.4 billion shares, well below the September 2022 average of 11.4 billion, and 3% below the average level even for August, a vacation month. Modest volumes, relatively low volatility with prices down notably means there is no selling panic, but there is a buyer's strike in stocks. They need to see rates come down before they have confidence to buy stocks again."

Persons: Chris Verrone, Morgan, Jamie Dimon didn't, Verrone, You'd, Mike O'Rourke, Neel Kashkari, Here's, I've, Alec Young Organizations: UAW, Jones Trading Locations: China, Minneapolis

☆ Tech is providing reliable, organic growth in a time of macro uncertainty, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTech is providing reliable, organic growth in a time of macro uncertainty, strategist saysAlec Young, chief investment strategist at Mapsignals, discusses U.S. futures and the tech rally.

☆ Current sweet spot in equities may come from picking up 'quality' stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

For investors who don't want to abandon stocks altogether and flee to the safety of two-year Treasury notes, one style attracting renewed interest is an old one: quality. "I would be picking growth stocks from here," Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, told me. But not just any growth stocks: "I would be picking companies that have stable earnings, and low debt." Stocks that screen for high quality tend to be leveraged to technology and the consumer. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, explains why: "Are people really going to be mad at you for owning Apple, or Microsoft, or other high quality stocks?

☆ Markets are still hostage to the Fed, but managing to hang in there
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Starting with the January jobs report released Feb. 3, it has been a relentless stream of bad news on the inflation front. Surprisingly, we are a mere 4% off the recent highs of early January and are flat for the week going into Friday trading . Investor sentiment is awful The AAII Sentiment Survey, a survey of the membership of the American Association of Individual Investors, indicated bearish sentiment remained unusually high, and bullish sentiment unusually low. Bullish: 23.4% (historic average: 37.5%) Bearish: 44.8% (historic average: 31.0%) Neutral: 31.8% (historic average: 31.5%) Source: AAII "The market's between a rock and a hard place," Alec Young, chief investment strategist at MapSignals, told me. Bottom line: the markets are still hostage to inflation and the Fed.

☆ Oil stocks are acting like the top is in for one-time hottest trade of 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-04 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But Energy stocks are acting like this may be the top. Lately, traders have been selling off oil stocks under the theory that profits in 2023 will likely be lower than 2022, not higher. The reason: the primary determinant of oil company profits are oil prices, and estimates for oil are coming down. For much of 2022, oil has been in "backwardation": futures prices for the most immediate contracts have been higher than prices farther out. Bulls are cheering the drop in Energy No one cheering for stocks to rally are crying over the drop in oil, or the drop in oil stocks.

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