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Putin is seeking to wear down Western support for Ukraine with a war of attrition. AdvertisementAdvertisementAt the Valdai Club conference Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin gloated over the potential impact of Western support for Ukraine ebbing. Meanwhile, Ukraine's economy is struggling under the weight of the conflict and it is heavily dependent on Western aid. Wagner fighters deployed in Rostov-on-Don REUTERS/StringerPutin faces threats of his ownBut there are also risks for Putin in an attrition strategy. AdvertisementAdvertisementA notable series of successes could lead to a new wave of public support for Ukraine, and damage Putin's internal credibility.
Persons: Putin, , Vladimir Putin gloated, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden's, George Beebe, Beebe, Wagner, Don, Stringer Putin, , Lawrence Freedman, Yevgeny Prigozhin Organizations: Ukraine, Putin, Service, Valdai, Republicans, Don REUTERS, King's College London, New Statesman Locations: Ukraine, Slovakia, Germany, Russia, Kyiv, Europe, Rostov, Russian, , Moscow, Lviv
Ukraine is picking off Russia's Ka-52 helicopters and self-propelled artillery, an expert said. Nico Lange, a Ukraine expert at the Munich Security Conference, said Ukraine's counteroffensive, which began in June, had started to make more progress in the last two weeks. And that number does not include two Ka-52 helicopters that Ukraine said it shot down on Thursday morning. Oryx also records 350 destroyed pieces of Russian self-propelled artillery, with 29 more damaged, seven abandoned, and 10 captured. But Lawrence Freedman, a war expert at the UK's King's College London, told The Economist that Ukraine is making progress.
Persons: Nico Lange, Russia's, Insider's Rebecca Rommen, Oleksii Reznikov, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Lawrence Freedman Organizations: Service, Munich Security, UK Ministry of Defence, NATO, Kremlin, King's College London, Economist Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv
Absent from view too is General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed "General Armageddon" by the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. Rybar, an influential channel on the Telegram messaging application run by a former Russian defence ministry press officer, said a purge was underway. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov attend an annual meeting of the Defence Ministry Board in Moscow, Russia, December 21, 2022. Dara Massicot, an expert in the Russian military at the RAND Corporation think-tank, said that something looked odd about the video, in which Surovikin has an automatic weapon on his lap. "Surovikin (is) a brute but also one of the more capable Russian commanders," Freedman said on Twitter.
Persons: Putin, Sergei Shoigu, Vladimir Putin, Valery Gerasimov, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Gerasimov, Sergei Surovikin, Surovikin, Dmitry Peskov, Wagner, Rybar, Staff of Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, Mikhail Kuravlev, Prigozhin, Michael Kofman, Viktor Zolotov, Shoigu, Dara Massicot, He’s, he’s, Alexei Venediktov, vilifying Shoigu, Lawrence Freedman, Freedman, Andrew Osborn, Mike Collett, White, Lisa Shumaker, Angus MacSwan, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: New York Times, Wednesday, Staff, Reuters, Moscow Times, Staff of Russian Armed Forces, Defence Ministry Board, Sputnik, REUTERS, Carnegie Endowment, Twitter, National Guard, Moscow, Tuesday, RAND Corporation, Western, King's College London, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Surovikin, Russia, Russian, Moscow, Ukrainian, Kremlin, Moscow's, Lefortovo, Chechnya, Syria
Ukraine says Russia fired 83 cruise missiles on Monday and that it shot down at least 43 of them. Both sides say the attack was on a huge scale, unseen at least since Russia's initial wave of air strikes on the first night of the war in February. Western military analysts have no firm figures for how many missiles Russia has left, but for months have pointed to indicators suggesting the supply is limited. Ben Hodges, another former commander of U.S. ground forces in Europe, said that despite Monday's attacks, Ukraine still appeared to have "irreversible momentum" on the battlefield. "Russia's logistics system is exhausted and no Russian wants to fight in Putin's war in Ukraine," he tweeted.
Putin cautioned it was no bluff, and Western politicians, diplomats and nuclear weapons experts are divided. Some say he could use one or more smaller, tactical nuclear weapons to try to stave off military defeat, protect his presidency, scare off the West or intimidate Kyiv into capitulation. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the weathervane can turn and point towards them," he said. Such blunt Kremlin rhetoric is very different to the much more nuanced nuclear signals preferred by late Soviet leaders after Nikita Khrushchev took the world to the brink of nuclear war in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Burns, though, said U.S. intelligence had no practical evidence that Putin was moving towards using tactical nuclear weapons imminently.
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