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The US economy faces a new threat
  + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Matt Egan | )   time to read: +6 min
‘The labor market may be turning’To be clear, the jobs market is by no means imploding. Powell highlighted these changes, telling lawmakers that recent indicators “send a pretty clear signal that labor market conditions have cooled considerably” from two years. The current risk is that the Fed is injecting inflation-fighting medicine into an economy that no longer needs it. “A balanced labor market with too restrictive rates from the Fed will not remain balanced for long,” Brusuelas said. “Equally as worrisome for the Fed should be the potential for a sharper deterioration in the labor market and economic activity.
Persons: it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Jobs, Powell, ” Brusuelas, Ken Kim, Kim, ” Kim, Donald Trump’s, Zandi, Fed Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, Fed, CNN, KPMG Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine
The US added 223,000 jobs in December 2022, more than the job growth forecasted. Friday's labor market figures add to the evidence that the country wasn't in a recession in 2022. Other economic data outside of labor market figures, like consumer spending, also suggest the US isn't in a recession. "A labor market this strong means an imminent recession is highly improbable," Bunker wrote. "This year will pose many challenges for the US economy, but the labor market looks set to enter with considerable strength."
The next recession could be a "richcession," according to the Wall Street Journal. A K-shaped recovery — where high-earning Americans saw jobs and wages grow, while the converse happened to lower-earners — began to take form during the recession. For the bottom 50%, real wealth growth from February 2020 to September 2022 is 226.6%. To be sure, although the recession on the horizon may be considered a richcession, that doesn't mean it won't affect lower-income Americans. "Lower income, lower wage, lower education workers, Black workers, workers of color" tend to see larger spikes in unemployment during downturns, according to Bunker.
Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, told CNBC that there could be a "mild recession induced by the Fed." Here's what experts are saying about a recession in 2023Some Wall Street experts and economists think the US could avoid a recession next year, and that even if one comes, it will likely not be as severe as the downturns after the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid pandemic. As Insider's Brian Evans reported, economists at Bank of America think there will be a mild recession too. While some think a recession is on the horizon, there's a chance that the US may not enter one at all. "I think we would need to see a significant deterioration in the labor market for me to think we're in a recession, and we have not seen any significant deterioration yet," Bunker said.
Big entertainment players face pressure to make streaming profitable and satisfy diverse audiences. 100 People Transforming Business is an annual list highlighting people across industries who are changing the way the world does business. As streamers feel the limits of subscription growth, free, ad-supported TV streamers like Tubi have grabbed market share. While many in Hollywood fear that marginalized voices could get sidelined in a tougher market, 2022 has seen more storytelling and content elevating previously excluded communities. As CEO Ken Kim told Insider, "It's not just professional creators — they are from all over the world."
But a surprising drop in the unemployment rate and another boost in worker wages sent a clear message to markets that more giant interest rate hikes are on the way. Everybody who seems to want a job is getting a job," said Ron Hetrick, senior economist at labor force data provider Lightcast. "But we've been getting into a situation where our low unemployment rate has absolutely been a significant driver of our inflation." A series of central bank rate increases has been aimed at reducing demand and thus loosening up a labor market where there are still 1.7 open jobs for every available worker. It all makes the inflation fight look ongoing, even with a slowdown in payroll growth.
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