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European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Hawkish central banks have sent a resounding "no" to markets betting recession would force rate cuts soon, leaving money managers scrambling for direction as the second half of the year approaches. "Markets have been wrong not only in their interpretation of the data but of the central bank reaction," he added. "Even though inflation is coming down, you are still getting that phase were the central banks think they need to talk hawkishly about this." Canada last week restarted rate hikes, Australia has come off a pause and Norway may have to accelerate hikes next week. BofA now expects two 25 bps interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, JPMorgan sees only one more and Morgan Stanley sees none.

Persons: Jason Simpson, Shorter, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Mark Nash, Nash, Kaspar Hense, Michael Michaelides, Shamik, BoE, they're, Dhar, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Conor Humphries Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, State, Bank of Japan, Treasury, JPMorgan, BlueBay Asset Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, Australia, Norway, Shamik Dhar

☆ Analysis: Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.

Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS

☆ Exclusive: EU to push for its debt to be included in government bond indexes- official
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Index inclusion "is something we are discussing with market participants at the moment, while we are also doing our internal analysis," the official said, looking at how the EU fulfills index providers' criteria. EU bonds are included in broad bond indexes but inclusion in dedicated government bond indexes compiled by the likes of Bloomberg, JPMorgan or FTSE Russell would be a game changer, as trillions of dollars of investor funds tracking the indexes would effectively become forced buyers. Big investors are also calling for index providers to treat the EU as a government. The EU official noted the bloc has elements of a sovereign, such as a budget and at least indirect taxing powers through member states' contributions. Cosimo Marasciulo, head of fixed income absolute return at Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said it was also calling for EU inclusion in government bond indexes.

Commodity trading advisers (CTAs) - funds that try to profit by buying or selling when there is a clear direction in markets - slumped 4.3% in the three days to Monday, according to analysis from UBS. "We have seen certainly on (last) Friday and Monday capitulation trades from hedge funds, so all hedge funds have been short duration positioned and we have heard a lot of desks needed to shut down their risk," said Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management. Hedge funds felt this "brutally" in Japanese markets, Hense said, where positioning from hedge funds and CTAs had been particularly "one sided" in anticipation of an end to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy. British macro hedge fund manager Crispin Odey's main fund posted a minus 4.7% February performance and is down 3% so far this year, said a note from his hedge fund to clients. Very few macro economic funds tracked by bank research seen by Reuters have reported March numbers.

☆ Instant View: Banking stocks tank again as Credit Suisse woes rock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO: A Credit Suisse logo is pictured on a the roof of a branch in Geneva, Switzerland, November 3, 2022. European banks shares slid over 6%, European stocks were down more 3% and U.S. stock futures pointed to a weak start for Wall Street shares. MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: Credit Suisse share trading was halted after heavy losses, last down over 20%, ING Group, ABN AMRO were4 down over 6%. “But in general, the balance sheet is in a much better position, with the European banks all highly regulated. So, it is important that the European regulator make clear that the underlying systemic risk, not only for deposits, but in the overall European banking market, is rather low.”

Blackstone (BX.N) limited withdrawals from its $69 billion unlisted REIT on Thursday after redemption requests hit pre-set limits amid investor concerns it was slow to adjust valuations as interest rate surged, a source close to the fund said. The development is yet another reminder of the risks facing not just sectors that are sensitive to higher interest rates but also broader financial markets, which have rallied sharply on hopes that interest rate hikes will slow. "REITS had a fantastic performance for a couple of months but when you have that outperformance, investors don't react to traditional fundamental signals such as rising rates," she said. But in recent weeks expectations have risen that the Fed will "pivot" from aggressive tightening, prompting investors to price in lower peak interest rates. Blackstone has reported a 9.3% year-to-date net return for the REIT, while the publicly traded Dow Jones U.S.

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