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The stock market has always pulled back when valuations are stretched as they are now, according to Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen in a note to clients this week. "[T]urning points can happen quickly, and … when valuations are stretched to start with, there can be limited scope for further gains," Allen noted. "[E]xamples of high returns through history have often been followed by sizeable reversals." The bank cited lofty current readings in the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller, arguing that "the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 has only been higher on two other occasions in the last century" than it is today. "Indeed, on both the occasions the CAPE ratio has got as high as it is today, there was then a significant correction."
Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Robert Shiller, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: Deutsche Bank
Luxury retailer Burberry 's shares present an attractive investment opportunity after the company revealed a new turnaround strategy, according to hedge fund manager David Neuhauser. The stock, which is also traded in the U.S. and Germany, remains down around 40% year-to-date, however. UBS said Burberry was the only luxury retailer not to report "weak organic sales growth" in the latest quarter. "I think Burberry has a good turnaround in place with a new CEO," Neuhauser added, while cautioning that the recovery might take longer than expected. "I think over some time, a good turnaround by Burberry, with strong leadership, could really see the stock price increase.
Persons: David Neuhauser, Neuhauser, CNBC's, Livermore, they're, Zuzanna Pusz, Burberry, , Joshua Schulman, Rogerio Fujimori, Adam Cochrane, FactSet, — CNBC's Karen Gilchrist Organizations: Burberry, Livermore Partners, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Stifel Locations: London, U.S, Germany, Asia, Swiss
LONDON — U.K. inflation picked up sharply to a higher-than-expected 2.3% in October, data from the British Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday. The hike marks a sharp increase from the 1.7% rise recorded in September and exceeds the 2.2% forecast of economists polled by Reuters. The latest print once again brings inflation above the Bank of England's 2% target, potentially dampening the prospects of a final interest rate cut this year. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.3% for the month, up slightly from 3.2% in September. The uptick was anticipated in part due to an increase in the regulator-set energy price cap that took effect in October, which is expected to lead to higher energy price inflation over the colder winter months.
Persons: Price Organizations: British Office, National Statistics, Reuters, Bank of England's, Institute of Chartered Accountants Locations: England, Wales
A higher economic growth rate could theoretically boost the government's tax take without the need to raise taxes further, because overall revenues would be higher. The OBR now expects U.K. real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2024, followed by expansion of 2% in 2025, before falling to 1.5%. The Labour government did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment on further possible tax changes. 'Desperate' growth ratesThe U.K. economy barely grew in the third quarter, eking out a less-than-expected 0.1% expansion, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Friday. We've had 1% growth, or around 1% growth now since the Financial Crisis.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, James Smith, CNBC's, John Grieve, Reeves, Gieve, , Labour's, ING's Smith, We've Organizations: Treasury, Getty, Labour, Finance, ING, of, CNBC, National Insurance, Office, National Statistics, Gross Locations: London, England
The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up marginally on Monday as investors looked ahead to fresh data and central bank commentary after closing out a week of gains. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note shifted half a basis point higher to 4.4316%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield traded less than a basis point lower at 4.2992%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.
Organizations: Treasury
European markets were set to open lower Friday, as investors looked ahead to fresh data and assessed the future path for interest rate cuts following hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index was seen opening 13 points lower at 8,054, Germany's DAX 39 points down to 19,210, France's CAC lower 26 points at 7,283 and Italy's FTSE MIB 129 points down to 33,966, according to IG data. Across the Atlantic, speaking Thursday, Powell said that strong U.S. economic growth is allowing policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates. U.S. stock futures inched lower overnight as Wall Street continued to assess the comments and the future path of the post-election rally. Asia markets, meanwhile, were mixed during Friday's session.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Germany's DAX, Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal, CAC, Burberry, Labour, Aegon, Experian Locations: U.S, Asia
European markets closed higher on Thursday as traders digested a slew of earnings and assessed fresh inflation data for a signal on the possible trajectory of interest rate cuts. The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally ended the day 1.08% higher, with all sectors and major bourses trading in the green. Shares of Burberry jumped more than 22%, after the British luxury house announced a sweeping overhaul strategy to stem declining sales. Investors are assessing the likelihood of another interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December after the latest U.S. inflation data. U.S. stocks were little changed Thursday, while Asia-Pacific markets traded in mixed territory overnight.
Persons: Donald Trump's Organizations: Burberry, Siemens, Bilfinger, Merck, Fincantieri, Metro Bank, Aviva, Deutsche Telekom, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Locations: Veon, Asia, Pacific
Analysts responded positively to the news, pointing to a potential "turning point" for the embattled brand. The plans were delivered alongside Burberry's 2024 interim results, which saw sales fall 20% for the second consecutive quarter. A 'turning point' for embattled BurberryThe underperformance comes amid a wider slowdown in the luxury sector, with the personal luxury goods market set to contract 2% this year. Mamta Valechha, consumer discretionary analyst at Quilter Cheviot, described it as a "turning point in what has been a very difficult period." Pedestrians walk past the window display of the store of British fashion label Burberry, in central London, on September 2, 2024.
Persons: Kevin Lee, Schulman, Joshua Schulman, Michael Kors, Burberry, Burberry Schulman, Burberry's, Piral Dadhania, Dadhania, Mamta, Cheviot, Henry Nicholls Organizations: Getty, Burberry, RBC Capital Markets, Afp Locations: Shanghai, London
Lauren Decicca | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThe personal luxury goods market looks set to face its first slowdown since the Global Financial Crisis this year, as macroeconomic uncertainty and a pronounced slowdown in China weigh on consumer spending, according to the Bain & Company's annual luxury report . This is the first slowdown in demand for personal luxury goods — which include clothing, bags, jewelry and cosmetics — in 15 years, excluding the Covid-19 lockdown period, according to the Wednesday findings. It noted that overall luxury spending is forecast to remain flat year-on-year in 2024 at around 1.5 trillion euros ($1.59 billion), even as segments including autos, travel and fine wine record modest growth. Luxury demand in Europe and the U.S. has shown signs of gradual improvement quarter-on-quarter this year, with Japan leading the way due to favorable currency exchange rates. As such, the report forecast the sector will grow slightly next year, barring any major economic headwinds.
Persons: Patek Philippe, Lauren Decicca, Kering, Cartier, Richemont, Bain Organizations: Dolce, Gabbana, Tiffany, Getty, Bain, LVMH, Burberry, Gucci, Bain & Company, U.S Locations: Siam, Bangkok, Thailand, China, Europe, Japan
The U.S. Federal Reserve could carry out fewer interest rate cuts than previously expected next year should President-elect Donald Trump's proposed global tariffs take hold, former Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said Tuesday. Markets trimmed their forecasts for rate cuts following Trump's election victory last week, with speculation growing around his tariff proposals and their implications for the world economy. It comes as concern is growing among global policymakers about the implications of Trump's fiscal plans, particularly on tariffs. "A trade war is the last thing we need," he continued. "If a trade war is to start, the European Union must not be unprepared as it was in 2018."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Loretta Mester, Mester, they're, Trump, It's, there's, , Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: U.S . Federal, UBS European Conference, Cleveland Federal Reserve, Reuters, Trump, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank policymaker, UBS, European Union Locations: London, U.S, Europe, European
A pedestrian crosses the streets in front of The Bank of England illuminated by a ray of sunlight, in central London, on February 12, 2024. LONDON — The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates Thursday, when policymakers deliver their first monetary policy decision following Labour's bumper budget announcement last week. The BOE is forecast to lower rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, bringing its key rate to 4.75%. Policymakers had signaled a "gradual approach" to cuts after holding rates steady at their September meeting. The Federal Reserve on Thursday will also deliver its latest interest rate decision following the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, having previously cut by 50 basis points in September.
Persons: BOE, Goldman Sachs, Rachel Reeves Organizations: The Bank of England, LONDON, Bank of England, Finance, Federal Reserve, U.S Locations: London
Oversnap | E+ | Getty ImagesLONDON — Britons are facing the prospect of higher mortgage rates for longer after the government's tax-and-spend budget threw off expectations for a series of near-term interest rate cuts. Mortgage rates also took a hit from the uncertainty, with a number of smaller and mainstream lenders raising mortgage rates on the expectation that interest rates may stay higher for longer. watch nowVirgin Money became the first major lender to raise mortgage rates after the budget, lifting them by 0.15%. "This isn't the radical spike in rates that have blighted mortgage rates in the last couple of years. He added that interest rates could now remain 50-basis-points higher than previously expected at the end of the cutting cycle.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, , David Hollingworth, Hollingworth, Allan Monks, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, Wednesday, Virgin Money, Santander, Morgan's Locations: London's, Oversnap
New arrivals to the U.K. will receive 100% U.K. tax relief for their first four years, so long as they have been non-resident for the last 10 years. That's in addition to the £21.1 billion the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast to be raised by earlier changes to the non-dom regime announced by the Conservatives in March. "Although the draft legislation has now been released, the Government still has time to create a new non-dom system that works for internationally-mobile individuals," Porter said in a statement. If they'd gone for the tiered (system), there would have been howls that you've given into the fat cats. "If they'd gone for the tiered (system), there would have been howls that you've given into the fat cats," he said.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Times Rich, David Lesperance, Lesperance, Steven Porter, Porter, they'd, Leslie Macleod Miller Organizations: Ford, Labour, Finance, , Times, Associates, CNBC, Conservatives, Treasury, Government, Foreign Investors, Britain, Lesperance Locations: Kuwait, Burlington, Bond, London, United Kingdom, City, That's, Italy, Switzerland, Dubai
Conservative leadership contender Kemi Badenoch delivers a speech on the final day of Conservative party conference at Birmingham ICC Arena on October 2, 2024 in Birmingham, England. LONDON — The U.K.'s opposition Conservative Party on Saturday named right-wing Kemi Badenoch as its new leader, closing a long-drawn-out runoff after the Tories' landslide electoral defeat ushered in a moment of reckoning for the party. Badenoch ousted Robert Jenrick to secure the top job, replacing outgoing leader and former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. "It is the most enormous honor to be elected to this role," Badenoch said, giving her maiden speech as party leader shortly after the results were announced. The ultimate winner was decided by Conservative Party members, with Badenoch receiving 53,806 votes to Jenrick's 41,388.
Persons: Kemi Badenoch, Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, Rishi Sunak, Tory, Jenrick, James, Keir Starmer's Organizations: Conservative, Birmingham ICC Arena, Conservative Party, Tories, Conservatives, Keir Starmer's Labour Locations: Birmingham, England, Badenoch
Urbazon | Istock | Getty ImagesSwitzerland could be at risk of slipping into deflationary territory next year, as a stronger Swiss franc beleaguers policymakers' efforts to get a handle on price growth. The central bank also revised down its forecasts, putting the average annual inflation rate for 2024 at 1.2% from 1.3%, while projecting price increases will grow by 0.6% in 2025, compared with a previous outlook of 1.1%. Foreign exchange (FX) interventions take place when a bank buys or sells its currency in the FX market to raise or lower its value against another currency. Swiss inflation has meanwhile continued to fall. In March, with inflation at 1.2%, the SNB become the first major Western central bank to cut interest rates.
Persons: Thomas Jordan, Adrian Prettejohn, Sophie Altermatt, Julius Baer, Prettejohn, Jordan Organizations: Istock, Getty, Swiss National Bank, Capital, Capital Economics, CNBC, FX Locations: Bern, Switzerland, Adrian Prettejohn Europe, Europe
Rachel Reeves, UK chancellor of the exchequer, outside 11 Downing Street ahead of presenting her budget to parliament in London, UK, on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — British businesses are smarting after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' bumper tax-rising budget, with analysts warning that the measures could slow hiring and push up inflation. Under the new rules, employer NI will rise by 1.2 percentage points to 15% from April 2025, while the level at which employers start paying NI for workers will drop from £9,100 to £5,000. Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the Confederation of British Industry, a business interest group, described it as a "tough budget for business." That is because businesses could pass on the additional costs to consumers by increasing the price of their products.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, , Roger Barker, Barker, Mike Kemp, Andrew Martin, Newton, Smith, Morgan, Andrew Sheets, CNBC's, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, LONDON, National Insurance, Labour, Conservative, Institute of, Institute of Directors, of British Industry, Corporation, Insurance, CNBC, Bank of, Morgan Locations: London, City of London, United Kingdom
UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves makes a speech during the Labour Party Conference that is held at the ACC Liverpool Convention Center in Liverpool, UK on September 23, 2024. LONDON — Nearly four months after taking office, the U.K.'s Labour government is set to unveil its debut budget on Wednesday, with markets braced for a major fiscal shake-up. "There's a huge amount of interest in this budget," Amanda Tickel, head of tax and trade policy at Deloitte U.K., told CNBC on Tuesday. Tickel forecast £35 billion ($45.4 billion) worth of tax rises and £5 billion in spending cuts to plug what Finance Minister Rachel Reeves says is a "big gap" in the budget. We haven't had a Labour government for 14 years, and they're going to want to make their mark on the tax system," she said.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Amanda Tickel, haven't, we've, Reeves Organizations: Labour Party Conference, ACC Liverpool Convention Center, LONDON, Labour, Deloitte, CNBC Locations: Liverpool, London
UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves makes a speech during the Labour Party Conference that is held at the ACC Liverpool Convention Center in Liverpool, UK on September 23, 2024. LONDON — U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will deliver the government's hotly awaited debut budget on Wednesday, putting to bed weeks of uncertainty over potential tax hikes and spending cuts. Reports suggest that the Treasury could target public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) in the U.K.'s measure of debt, rather than public sector net debt. The PSNFL measure takes in a wider account of the government's balance sheet, including financial assets and liabilities, than public sector net debt. In a note Friday, Goldman Sachs estimated that the changes could increase the government's fiscal headroom by around £50 billion ($65 billion).
Persons: Rachel Reeves, — Labour's, , Keir Starmer, Reeves, Goldman Sachs, Goldman sachs Organizations: Labour Party Conference, ACC Liverpool Convention Center, LONDON, Finance, Sky News, Financial Times, Treasury Locations: Liverpool
The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than five basis points to 4.284%, while the 2-year Treasury added three basis points to 4.126%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury continued its ascent on Monday, after hitting a three-month high last week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury hit a three-month high on Wednesday, topping 4.25%, before dipping slightly to close out the week. Monday is light on the data front, but traders are looking ahead this week to fresh jobs figures and consumer confidence data in the lead up to the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. Investors will also continue to digest a slew of central bank commentary following last week's IMF meetings in Washington, D.C., with Federal Reserve policymakers now in a blackout period which prevents commentary ahead of next week's interest rate decision.
Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Washington , D.C, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington ,
A trader works during the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 17, 2020 at Wall Street in New York City. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell on Thursday, reversing gains after topping the 4.25% threshold in the previous session as traders continue to digest the trajectory of interest rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury yield slid more than 4 basis points to 4.1958%, while the 2-year Treasury fell over 3 basis points to 4.0466%. Yields move inversely to prices. One basis point equals 0.01%.
Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Wall, Treasury Locations: New York City
The head of the International Monetary Fund cautioned on Thursday that high debt and low growth remained major impediments to the global economy. "When we look into the challenges ahead of us, the biggest one is low growth, high debt. "It is successful major economies that have done really well … and there are pockets in the world where inflation is still a problem," she said. Georgieva warned that international trade would no longer be the "engine of growth" it once was, highlighting the proliferation of restrictive policies among many economies. Earlier on Thursday, Georgieva also pointed to wider geopolitical tensions as one of the key risks to global financial stability.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Karen Tso, Georgieva, Ukraine — Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, CNBC, Washington DC, World Bank Group, European Union, Ukraine Locations: Washington, U.S, China, United States
LONDON — U.S. pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly is exploring whether obesity drugs could be used to curb joblessness after signing a major investment deal with the U.K. The weight-loss treatment firm and creator of Zepbound announced Monday that it would commit £279 million ($364 million) to help tackle Britain’s significant health challenges — including obesity. Within that, the five-year trial, conducted in collaboration with Health Innovation Manchester, will also explore how weight-loss drugs impact “participants’ employment status and sick days from work,” the company said in a news release. The use cases for obesity drugs have been growing over recent months, with several drug regulators expanding GLP-1 drug labels for use in treating obesity-related comorbidities and other illnesses. The company said it anticipates making an additional £279 million of new investment into the U.K. over the coming years.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Zepbound, , Rachel Batterham, Wes Streeting, Streeting, “ It’s, ” Streeting, Peter Verdault, , Dr, Dolly van Tulleken, Eli Lilly’s Organizations: LONDON, U.K, of Health, Social, Department for Science, Innovation, Technology, Labour government’s, Investment, National Health Services, Health Innovation, International Medical, British Health, Social Care, Covid, NHS can’t, CNBC, Citi, MRC, University of Cambridge, BBC Radio, Lilly, Labs Locations: Lilly, British, Europe
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — Britain's ultra-rich non-doms are urging the government to introduce an Italian-style flat-tax regime to prevent a wealth exodus, as their preferential status comes under threat in the upcoming budget. That differs from Italy's regime, which charges a recently doubled rate of 200,000 euros per year regardless of wealth bracket. Non-doms move their moneyReeves had previously said that scrapping the program could generate £2.6 billion ($3.38 billion) for the Treasury over the course of the next government. We need to understand that we need people to be investing here, to create the jobs, wealth, prosperity that we want. Labour courts wealth creatorsThe Labour government has said it is determined to address unfairness in the tax system, pledging in its election manifesto to close non-dom tax loopholes.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Leslie MacLeod Miller, Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Alex Stewart, doms, Sadiq Khan, MacLeod Miller, Dominic Lawrance, Charles Russell Speechlys, Keir Starmer Organizations: Porsche, GTS, Chanel, Bond, Investors, Britain, Oxford Economics, Foreign Investors, CNBC, Labour Party, Treasury, FIFB, Oxford, Labour, Labour's, Investment Locations: London, United Kingdom, IHT, Italy, Switzerland, Dubai, Westbourne, Bayswater, Royal Oak
An Eli Lilly & Co. Zepbound injection pen arranged in the Brooklyn borough of New York on March 28, 2024. LONDON — U.S. pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly is exploring whether obesity drugs could be used to curb joblessness after signing a major investment deal with the U.K. The use cases for obesity drugs have been growing over recent months, with several drug regulators expanding GLP-1 drug labels for use in treating obesity-related comorbidities and other illnesses. Speaking to CNBC last week, Citi pharmaceuticals analyst Peter Verdault said the body of evidence to support increased use of weight-loss drugs "keeps coming." The company said it anticipates making an additional £279 million of new investment into the U.K. over the coming years.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Zepbound, Rachel Batterham, Lilly, Wes Streeting, Covid, Streeting, Peter Verdault, Dolly van Tulleken, Eli Lilly's Organizations: LONDON, U.K, Department of Health, Social, Department for Science, Innovation, Technology, Labour government's, Investment, National Health Services, Health Innovation, International Medical, Social Care, CNBC, Citi, MRC, University of Cambridge, BBC Radio, Lilly Locations: Brooklyn, New York, Europe
Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivers a speech on stage during the International Investment Summit, held at The Guildhall, in central London, on October 14, 2024. LONDON — U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday vowed to slash regulatory red tape to boost anemic investment in the country. The prime minister restated that growth was the "No. Starmer also outlined stability, strategy, regulation and improving Britain's global standing as "four crucial areas" in his pitch for Britain. "Private sector investment is the way we rebuild our country and pay our way in the world," Starmer said.
Persons: Keir Starmer, We've, Starmer, Brexit, Jonathan Reynolds Organizations: Britain's, International Investment Summit, Guildhall, LONDON, Investment Summit, London's, Britain, Labour, Business, Sunday Locations: London
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