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☆ The era of the Magnificent 7 is over, says the analyst who invented the term
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-24 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It was a good run, but the era of the Magnificent Seven is over for the stock market. "I don't see these seven names rising together," said the analyst who coined the nickname for the group. AdvertisementThe Magnificent Seven are looking a little less magnificent, and aren't really even a band of seven anymore. In a note titled "R.I.P the Magnificent Seven Era," Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist from Jones Trading, said the group's dominance over the stock market is coming to a close. Back in April 2023, when O'Rourke invented the moniker (although some say it was BofA's Michael Hartnett who coined the term), the Magnificent Seven contributed to a stunning 88% of year-to-date gains.

Persons: —, aren't, Mike O'Rourke, O'Rourke, BofA's Michael Hartnett, Michael Hartnett, That's, it's, " O'Rourke, Tesla, Dan Niles, Satori, Niles Organizations: Service, Jones, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Companies, Satori Fund, Google, CNBC Locations: China

☆ Stocks are oversold, but need rates to stabilize before luring back buyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are up modestly in early trading Wednesday, but the usual signals of volume spikes and higher volatility are still not present. Yet here we are, with the 10-year at 4.55% yesterday and looking like it wants to get to 5.0% fast. Total equity volume yesterday was 10.4 billion shares, well below the September 2022 average of 11.4 billion, and 3% below the average level even for August, a vacation month. Modest volumes, relatively low volatility with prices down notably means there is no selling panic, but there is a buyer's strike in stocks. They need to see rates come down before they have confidence to buy stocks again."

Persons: Chris Verrone, Morgan, Jamie Dimon didn't, Verrone, You'd, Mike O'Rourke, Neel Kashkari, Here's, I've, Alec Young Organizations: UAW, Jones Trading Locations: China, Minneapolis

☆ Why has the stock market been weak lately? It's not mysterious
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 1-month Since then, it's been one excuse after another. Everything Tuesday was down about 1.0-1.25% midday, including the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP) the market-cap weighted S & P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the small-cap Russell 2000, but most ended down a fraction of a percent. At nearly 5% yield, money market funds are still sucking in money, even with the S & P 500 up 18% this year. I mentioned Monday that money market inflows reaccelerated last week: $21 billion worth of inflows were added, according to Goldman Sachs. "The pace of money market flows reflects a larger apathy towards stock," Todd Sohn from Strategas told clients.

Persons: it's, Moody's, Mike O'Rourke, Dow Jones, Sellers, Harry Whitton, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Todd Sohn, Strategas, David Kelly Organizations: Bank of Japan, Jones Trading, Regional Banking, Nasdaq, Chief Global, Morgan Asset Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S

☆ Friday could offer a once-in-a-year chance to cash in on tech gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Following on the rebalancing of S & P indexes last week, on Friday the Russell indexes will do their annual rebalancing. FTSE Russell also has a vast suite of products indexed to benchmarks like the small-cap Russell 2000 , the large-cap Russell 1000 , and the Russell 1000 Growth and Value indexes. FTSE Russell estimates that about $12.1 trillion is currently benchmarked to the FTSE Russell indexes. On average, about 12% of the Russell 2000 (about 242 stocks) turns over every year since 2006, according to FTSE Russell. This year, about 15% of the Russell 2000 will turnover, and about 2% of the Russell 1000, according to Wells Fargo.

Persons: Russell, It's, Wells Fargo, Chris Harvey, Mike O'Rourke, Wells Fargo's Harvey Organizations: Russell, Technology, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Investors, Netflix, Google, FTSE Russell, Jones, Amazon Locations: Wells Fargo, Freeport McMoRan .

☆ Stocks are at a new high, but Wall Street’s fear gauge is raising eyebrows
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Since the VIX normally is used as a "fear gauge", he noted that was unusual, and asked what might have caused that. Remember, it is a measure of near-term (30-day) activity for S & P 500 put and call options. However, the put/call ratio has been low recently, between 0.7 and 0.8, as traders have been buying calls, betting the market will keep rising. Eric Johnston at Piper Sandler agrees: "The call buying has been very strong as investors chase upside," he told me. The recent events are that the market is rising, so the urge to buy protection declines: "When institutions get nervous, they seek protection in VIX.

Persons: Joe Zicherman, Tuesday's, Matt Maley, Miller Tabak, There's, Mike O'Rourke, O'Rourke, Eric Johnston, Piper Sandler, it's, Danny Kirsch, Steve Sosnick Organizations: Fed, Jones, Interactive Brokers Locations: VIX

☆ Analysis: US debt ceiling deal could stall safety flight fueling megacap rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Their rally has been responsible for all of the 8.3% year-to-date gain in the S&P 500 (.SPX) through Wednesday's close, a Deutsche Bank report showed. A recent survey of global fund managers from BofA Global Research showed that 71% believe a deal to raise the debt ceiling will be reached before the X-date. Excitement over artificial intelligence, which has boosted some megacap names this year, is another factor that could support the category. At the same time, the debt ceiling has been only one of of several worries weighing on the market. Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, expects lawmakers will reach an agreement to extend the debt ceiling through September.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Recession worries simmer beneath US stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Economically sensitive areas of the U.S. stock market are flashing warnings over growth, even as major equity indexes edge higher. Beneath the surface, however, areas of the market tied to economic sentiment such as transports, semiconductors and small-cap stocks dropped in April, while so-called defensive sectors are outperforming. “People are starting to more defensively position themselves,” said Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Eaton Vance. "They are talking about demand being down and they are ridiculously important shipping companies,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ S&P 500 is in a modest uptrend, but low volumes and reduced volatility have traders in a funk
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Good news: The S & P 500 is in a modest uptrend. The S & P 500 is up 7% since bottoming at the height of the banking crisis March 13th. The main focus of volatility, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), hit a 15-month low on Wednesday. "The January 2022 trough in the VIX marks the current all-time high for the S & P 500. Julian Emanuel at Evercore ISI noted that as of Tuesday night, 44 companies in the S & P 500 had reported.

☆ Stocks are rising, but megacap tech is doing most of the heavy lifting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

It's starting to look a lot like 2021 in the stock market. Tech stocks are dragging all the indexes up, just like 2021. The technicians seem to be happy, because the S & P is again showing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows that began in October. Most of this has been driven by the stunning performance in megacap tech. Megacap tech this quarter: NVIDIA up 80% Meta up 67% Tesla up 53% Those seven megacap tech companies are responsible for most of the gains for the S & P 500 this year.

European bank shares slumped, with an index of leading lenders (.SX7P) down 5.8%. Credit Suisse shares slumped 62%, reflecting the huge loss its shareholders will see in their investment in the bank. Monetary authorities in Singapore and Hong Kong, where Credit Suisse hosts large regional offices, separately said the Swiss bank's business continued without interruption. And Credit Suisse urged its staff to go to work, according to a memo to staff seen by Reuters. Credit Suisse staff arriving to work in Hong Kong and Singapore on Monday morning, however, fretted about retrenchments and retaining business.

☆ UBS rescue of Credit Suisse doesn't resolve the U.S. banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Swiss government gets an "A" for its speed in addressing the Credit Suisse problem, but it doesn't resolve the U.S. banking crisis. The banking crisis has tightened financial conditions because it has dramatically interrupted the flow of capital. Banks, particularly regional banks, will likely be doing much less lending for the rest of the year. The bad news: this banking crisis has once again revealed an age-old problem with capitalism: much of it is based on faith. "It should be clear that the most expedient and effective solution to this crisis is an expansion and modernization of the FDIC deposit insurance regime."

☆ UBS to take over Credit Suisse, central banks act on liquidity
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -UBS sealed a deal to buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in an effort to avoid further market-shaking turmoil in global banking, Swiss authorities said on Sunday. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Credit Suisse is pictured in front of the Swiss Parliament Building, in Bern, Switzerland, March 19, 2023. The reports that UBS is acquiring Credit Suisse will likely magnify Credit Suisse’s problems by moving them to UBS... The Credit Suisse issues are not new and needed to be resolved years ago. A legal challenge by Credit Suisse shareholders, who will claim that their property has been illegally confiscated, is guaranteed.

☆ The stock market set-up heading into the crucial CPI report Thursday morning
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bespoke Investment Group noted that in the first seven trading days of 2023, 175 stocks in the Russell 1000 are up 10% or more. Going into 2023, the pain trade was that the market would rally. "An in-line report doesn't cut it, in-line has already been sold," Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna, told me. "In my mind it [CPI] would have to be below consensus for the market to rally," he told me. He is particularly watching rental costs: "For inflation to come down, rents have to come down, and if they don't the Fed is going to be concerned."

☆ Investors focus on lower earnings outlook for 2023, but the evidence is so far mixed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The boomlet from Fed Chair JeromePowell's speech is now over. Second, a string of hot economic reports (November nonfarm payrolls, strong hourly earnings, strong ISM Services report), has convinced many that the much anticipated year-end stock rally is not going to happen. At the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference on Tuesday, CEOs were cautious but not gloomy. While some chose to focus on one or two CEOs warning of a slowing economy, most CEOs at the conference were not pessimistic. The bottom line: Investors, for the moment, are choosing to believe that the outlook for 2023 is leaning more to "earnings are going lower" rather than "earnings will be flat."

☆ Fed Chair Jerome Powell is once again the center of attention for markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Monday's 1.5% haircut for the S & P 500 was largely attributed to the unrest in China, but several traders brought up Fed Chair Jay Powell's Wednesday's speech at the Brookings Institution. Those comments, along with other hawkish sounding statements from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, have everyone convinced Powell will pull another Jackson Hole on Wednesday. Indeed mortgage rates are already lower: A 30-year fixed rate mortgage has gone to 6.81% today from 7.24% on November 11th, according to Bankrate. That is 200 points lower than were the S & P sits today. The issue is, how many times is Powell going to reiterate this theme before it gets old?

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