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Treasury yields dip ahead of September jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by one basis point at 3.84%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was also one basis point lower at 3.697%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower early Friday as investors gear up for the closely watched September jobs report. Treasury yields rose on Thursday after ADP data showed private payrolls grew by more than expected in September. Private companies added 143,000 jobs, ahead of August's figure of 103,000 and a forecast of 128,000. That was given as justification for the jumbo 50-basis-point interest rate cut carried out by the Fed last month.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Fed
Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, gestures as he addresses the media during a press conference at the Bank of England in London on Aug. 1, 2024. The British pound tumbled more than 1% against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after a The Guardian report that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested more positive inflation data could lead the central bank toward a more aggressive approach to interest rate cuts. He also said he was encouraged that cost of living pressures had not been as persistent as previously thought, according to the Guardian. The central bank held its key rate in September, after cutting it by 25 basis points in August to 5%. During the September meeting, the institution expressed concerns about services inflation and the labor market, despite headline inflation hovering near its 2% target.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Sterling, Bailey, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Guardian, U.S . Federal, CNBC Locations: London, British
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was more than 4 basis points higher at 3.789%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to trade at 3.597%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Tuesday as market participants awaited fresh economic data and further comments from Federal Reserve officials. The 10-year Treasury yield ended last week almost 8 basis points higher after the U.S. central bank lowered interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. On the data front, consumer confidence data for September and Richmond Fed surveys for September are both scheduled to be released at 10 a.m.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Adriana Kugler, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Jenni Reid Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Fed, Richmond Fed Locations: U.S, Minneapolis
Luxury stocks slip as fears grow of a prolonged downturn
  + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — European luxury stocks tumbled on Monday as analysts warned of a deteriorating demand outlook, particularly among high-spending Chinese consumers. "Following the post-Covid peak in consumption in 2022, luxury sector revenues have been sequentially slowing. Across European luxury firms, they expect a 1% revenue decline in 2024. The Stoxx Europe Luxury 10, an index tracking top names in the sector, managed to hold flat but has fallen 3.82% in the year to date. 'Prolonged period of weakness'They're not alone in their bearish view on Europe's luxury sector.
Persons: Hugo Boss, Germany's Hugo Boss, Burberry, Kering, Hermes, Jon Cox, Kepler Cheuvreux, CNBC's, Cox Organizations: Hugo, Hugo Boss AG, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of America, Korean, BofA Securities, Kepler, U.S, CNBC, Burberry Locations: Shanghai, China, American, Europe
Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The 10-year Treasury yield was up just over a basis point at 3.745% at 3:41 a.m. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher early Monday as investors assessed the growth outlook following the Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut last week. The 10-year Treasury yield ended last week almost 8 basis points higher after the Fed lowered rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Adriana Kugler Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Locations: U.S
Sterling breached $1.33 against the greenback for the first time since March 2022 on Thursday, and was trading at $1.3315 early London time Monday. The pound's rally was tied to the BOE communication and "looks fully justified," Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, said in a Friday note. Higher rates are traditionally a positive for a domestic currency as the higher yield can attract more foreign capital. watch nowGabriella Dickens, G7 economist at AXA Investment Managers, also cautioned on the pound's outlook in a note Thursday. If the government is more stringent on fiscal policy, we think the Bank will be forced to increase the pace of the cutting cycle to offset the hit on both households' and businesses' finances."
Persons: Keir Starmer, BOE, Chris Turner, Turner, Jane Foley, Gabriella Dickens, Dickens Organizations: Bank of England, Labour, Sterling, greenback, London, ING, Fed, U.K, European Union, Rabobank London, CNBC, AXA Investment, Bank, quicken Locations: Britain,
Bank of England holds interest rates steady after August cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Commuters cycles past the Bank of England (BOE), left, in the City of London, UK, on Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's interest rate decision is scheduled for release on Sept. 19. LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday said it would hold interest rates steady following its initial cut in August, even after the U.S. Federal Reserve opted for a jumbo rate cut the day before. The Monetary Policy Committee voted by 8 to 1 to hold, with the dissenting member voting for a 0.25 percentage point cut. Many strategists had expected a smaller 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, despite market pricing through this week pointing to more than 50% probability of the more aggressive option.
Persons: BOE Organizations: Bank of England, City of, LONDON, U.S . Federal, Monetary, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: City, City of London, U.K
What a Fed rate cut could mean for the world
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowThe U.S. Federal Reserve is on Wednesday heading for its first interest rate cut since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic — and despite the move being widely forecast, global investors are braced for impact. Global impactA key concern is the pressure interest rate differentials put on currencies. Oil and other commodities, usually priced in dollars, often receive a boost with a rate cut as a lower cost of borrowing can stimulate an economy and increase demand. "Interest rate cuts reduce the cost of borrowing in U.S. dollars, thereby creating easier liquidity conditions for companies around the world," Quilter Cheviot's Richard Carter continued via email. That includes whether the initial cut will reduce the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points or 50 basis points below its current 525 to 550 range.
Persons: , Richard Carter, Cheviot, Cheviot's Richard Carter Organizations: U.S . Federal, Turkish, U.S ., Fed, Federal, Equity Locations: U.S, Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, Sweden
Commuters outside the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, UK, on Monday, Sept. 16, 2024. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's interest rate decision is scheduled for release on Sept. 19. Either way, this would be Fed's first rate cut in the current cycle. Meanwhile, money market pricing for a BOE cut at Thursday's September meeting dipped from 35% late Tuesday to 26% Wednesday morning, still slightly higher than it was last week. The move came after U.K. inflation came in at 2.2% for August, steady on July and in-line with expectations — thus backing the need for a little more caution in Threadneedle Street.
Persons: BOE, , Sanjay Raja, Raja, George Lazarias, Mazars, they're, Lazarias Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Deutsche Bank, Monetary, MPC Locations: City, City of London, China
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe aviation industry still sees so-called "sustainable aviation fuel" (SAF) as the only viable way to meet its decarbonization targets, even as opposition and the potential for higher costs for passengers pose obstacles to the fast-growing sector. SAF is a broad term describing fuel that is burned by an aircraft engine, but instead of using kerosene is derived from more sustainable sources. The planemaker said it is collaborating with producer HIF Global on the development of methane-based fuels, and investing in alcohol-to-jet fuel producer LanzaJet. But IATA's own forecast for SAF production to triple in 2024 to 1.9 billion liters would cover just 0.53% of aviation fuel demand for the year. "The truth is, it's going to be more expensive, you can't really sugarcoat that," said HIF Global's Clara Bowman.
Persons: Neste, HIF, Buzz, Lauren Riley, Riley, Rick Nagel, You've, Clara Bowman, Bowman, United's Lauren Riley, HIF Global's Clara Bowman Organizations: SAF, Bloomberg, Getty, United Airlines, Chicago O'Hare International, Labour, Airbus, Farnborough Air, CNBC, International Air Transport Association, Acorn Capital Management, Porsche, HIF, Union's Renewable Energy Directive, Biden, Boeing, Google, Embraer Locations: Singapore, Chile, Texas, U.S, America
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2 basis points higher at 3.721%, with the 2-year Treasury yield also up by 2 basis points at 3.691%. Treasury yields rose early Tuesday ahead of the final major inflation prints before the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Treasury yields have stablized after tumbling through last week when a series of labor market releases missed estimates. Debate has erupted over whether the Fed could opt for a 50 basis point rather than a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the Sept. 17-18 meeting.
Organizations: Treasury, Investors Locations: July's
Massimo Di Vita | Mondadori Portfolio | Getty ImagesThe European Union needs up to 800 billion euros ($884 billion) in additional investment per year to meet its key competitiveness and climate targets, according to a report from economist and politician Mario Draghi. The bloc's goals of bolstering its geopolitical relevance, social equality and decarbonization are being threatened by weak economic growth and productivity compared with the U.S. and China, the report states. The EU is meanwhile suffering an "innovation deficit" which must be tackled through reforms to research and development funding and policy, the report states. To fast-track policymaking, the report proposes limiting the voting items that require support from an absolute majority of member states. Funding questionPublic and private investments are being hindered by the size of the EU budget, its lack of focus and its risk aversion, the Draghi report says.
Persons: Mario Draghi, Massimo Di Vita, Draghi —, , NextGenerationEU Organizations: Italian, European Union, U.S, European Central Bank, European, European Securities and Markets Authority, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC Locations: Rome, Italy, China, EU, Europe, Germany
Volvo Cars on Thursday scaled back its margin and revenue targets, after announcing it was no longer targeting 100% all-electric vehicle sales by 2030. Volvo Cars shares were 3.2% higher in early afternoon deals following a 10% decline so far this week. Numerous automakers have reported challenges related to the electric vehicle transition, particularly from underwhelming demand. Volvo Cars also announced Thursday that it was extending its partnership with U.S. chip giant Nvidia as it develops features including advanced driving assistance and autonomous driving. In July, the firm reported record quarterly operating profit of 8.2 billion Swedish kronor.
Persons: China's Geely Organizations: Volvo, China's, European Union, Volvo Cars, U.S, Nvidia, EV Locations: Shanghai, China, Swedish, U.S, Gothenburg, Sweden, Europe
Euro zone inflation dropped to a three-year low of 2.2% in August, flash figures from statistics agency Eurostat showed Friday, boosting expectations for a September rate cut from the European Central Bank. The core rate — excluding the more volatile components of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco — fell to 2.8% in August from 2.9% in July, also matching a Reuters poll. The euro nudged 0.04% higher against the U.S. dollar to $1.1083 as investors gear up from a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve in its first step toward monetary easing in the current cycle. It come after price rises in Germany, the euro area's biggest economy, cooled more than expected to 2% for the month, on a euro zone harmonized basis. Economists at ING expect euro zone core inflation to remain stubbornly above 2.5% for the rest of the year amid stickiness in goods and services.
Organizations: Eiffel, Paris, European Central Bank, Reuters, U.S, Federal Reserve, ING, Markets, ECB Locations: Paris, Germany
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, waits to deliver a lecture at the London School of Economics in London, UK, on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will hail the progress made in dampening inflation in the U.K. in a Friday speech, but also caution that monetary policy may need to remain restrictive for longer than expected due to shocks from the labor market. Headline price rises in the U.K. hit the BOE's 2% target for two months this year, before rising to 2.2% in July. However, he will caution that two less "benign" scenarios remain possible that will require the Bank of England to "maintain restriction for longer." It comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday gave his firmest comments yet indicating that interest rate cuts lie ahead for the world's biggest central bank, stating: "The time has come for policy to adjust."
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of England, London School of Economics, U.S, Bank of Locations: London, U.S . Federal, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Bank of England
Divers of the Vigili del Fuoco, the Italian Corps. of Firefighters leave Porticello harbor near Palermo, to resume research for a last missing person on August 23, 2024, four days after the British-flagged luxury yacht Bayesian sank. Divers on Friday found the body of the final person missing after a luxury yacht sank off the coast of northern Sicily, the Italian fire service said. Eighteen-year-old Hannah Lynch, daughter of British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, is the last person still unaccounted for, out of six people that went missing after the superyacht Bayesian sank suddenly during a violent storm in the early hours of Monday morning. Recaldo Thomas, a Canadian-Antiguan national who was working as a chef onboard, was confirmed dead earlier this week.
Persons: Hannah Lynch, Mike Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Jonathan Bloomer, Judy Bloomer, Clifford Chance, Chris Morvillo, Neda Morvillo, Recaldo Thomas, Angela Bacares Organizations: Italian Corps, Firefighters Locations: Porticello, Palermo, British, Sicily, Canadian
Goldman Sachs has cut its probability forecast for a U.S. recession to 20% shortly after raising it, as fresh labor market data sparked a reassessment of market views on the economy. Economists at Goldman earlier this month raised their 12-month U.S. recession probability from 15% to 25% after the U.S. July jobs report of Aug. 2 showed nonfarm payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 114,000. That was down from the downwardly revised 179,000 of June and below the Dow Jones estimate of 185,000. The report triggered widespread concerns about the world's largest economy, and contributed to the sharp — but ultimately brief — stock market sell-off at the start of the month. Goldman initially cited this as a reason for hiking the probability of an economic downturn — but changed tack on Saturday, when it wrote in a note that it saw the odds down to 20% because data released since Aug. 2 showed "no sign of a recession."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Goldman Organizations: Goldman, U.S Locations: U.S
The U.K. economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of the year, the Office for National Statistics said Thursday, continuing the country's cautious recession rebound. The British economy has recorded slight but steady growth almost every month so far this year, as the U.K. exits a shallow recession. On an annual basis the economy was 0.9% bigger in the second quarter, against a forecast of 0.8%. The pace of growth is unlikely to continue into the second half amid weaker wage growth, high interest rates and supply challenges, Thiru added. Over the April-June period, U.K. wage growth excluding bonuses cooled to a two-year low, but remained relatively hot at 5.4%.
Persons: Richard Carter, Cheviot Organizations: National Statistics, Reuters, Institute of Chartered Accountants, ONS, Bank of England's, U.S . Locations: York, U.K, England, Wales, London
General view of the UBS building in Manhattan, New York City, on June 5, 2023. Swiss banking giant UBS on Wednesday smashed net profit expectations for the second quarter, as revenue came in higher than expected. Net profit attributable to shareholders came in at $1.136 billion for the period, versus a company-compiled consensus forecast of $528 million. UBS had swung back to profit in the first quarter after two quarterly losses, but it warned that its net interest income would fall in both its global wealth management and its personal and corporate banking divisions. It has now been over a year since UBS completed the legal takeover of Credit Suisse, triggering a huge integration process and forming a wealth management juggernaut.
Organizations: UBS, Wednesday, Credit Suisse Locations: Manhattan , New York City, Swiss
Tom Weller/voigt | Getty Images Sport | Getty ImagesTime is running out on the so-called "Olympic political truce" declared by French President Emmanuel Macron in late July, pushing the country's rocky political landscape back into focus. The left-wing New Popular Front alliance won the highest number of seats and prevented a much-discussed victory for the far-right National Rally. Meanwhile, Macron's own politics and allied government have been "widely rejected by the French," Massoc added, and no party will form an alliance with far-right National Rally. Even within the leftist grouping, parties are divided and some will refuse any sort of alliance with centrists, she said. Under the French political system, the parliament has relatively little power and between 2017 and 2022, 65% of texts adopted were laws proposed by the government rather than parliament, Massoc noted.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Tom Weller, voigt, Macron, , tussles, Gabriel Attal, Lucie Castets, Elsa Clara Massoc, Gallen, Castets, Massoc, Les, Renaud Foucart Organizations: Stade de France, Olympic Games, Getty, Paris, Front, New Popular, National Assembly, University of St, CNBC, centrists, CAC, Lancaster University Locations: France, Paris,
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open higher Tuesday, regaining some positive momentum after last week's volatility. The U.K.'s FTSE index is seen opening 26 points higher at 8,233, Germany's DAX up 18 points at 17,288, France's CAC 40 up 14 points at 7,259 and Italy's FTSE MIB 62 points higher at 32,084, according to data from IG. European stocks closed mixed on Monday as forthcoming U.S. and U.K. inflation data dominated investor attention. U.K. wage data released by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed that pay excluding bonuses grew 5.4% year-on-year between April and June — the lowest rate in two years. U.K. inflation data, due on Wednesday, will be the first print since the BOE cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Jack Kennedy, BOE Organizations: LONDON, CAC, IG, Office, National Statistics, Reuters, Bank of England, U.S Locations: France, Spain, Italy
Global markets are cautiously rebounding from an early-August rout — and one asset manager says there's no need to fear a burst tech bubble causing a persistent downturn. "I just don't see a tech bubble. Pointing to the Nasdaq, Singh noted that on an equally-weighted basis — giving each stock the same weight regardless of market capitalization — the index is flat over the last three years. "So if you have 100 stocks and seven of them are doing well because they have delivered [on] earnings, that's fine. The tech sector's recent bull run has in part been powered by the so-called "Magnificant Seven" of Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla .
Persons: , there's, Wall, Manish Singh, CNBC's, Singh Organizations: Crossbridge, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla
U.S. Treasury yields were lower Friday as investors continued to assess the state of the U.S. economy after labor data buoyed sentiment. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 6 basis points lower at 3.94% at 4 p.m. Nonetheless, it was holding near the level it was at last week before a weak U.S. jobs report helped trigger a run of global market volatility. The yield on the 2-year note was up less than 1 basis point on the day at 4.051%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions, and one basis point equals one one-hundredth (0.01%) of a percent.
Organizations: Treasury Locations: U.S
LONDON — European stocks closed higher on Friday as global equity markets looked to rebuild from the recent sell-off. Global markets have been volatile this week as they have tried to shake off Monday's rout. The initial sell-off was in part triggered by separate U.S. jobs data last week coming in weaker than expected. Both moves have led analysts to caution that markets may have outsize reactions to data releases and central bank commentary through August — typically a volatile month for stocks. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher on Friday.
Persons: Organizations: City of, LONDON Locations: City, City of London, U.S, Asia, Pacific
U.S. stocks have whipsawed since last Friday, with a sharp sell-off followed by a bounce-back on Thursday. This led the S&P 500 to its strongest session since 2022, leaving it around the 5,310 level. The S&P 500 is facing a key test level as the consensus view of a soft landing for the U.S. economy reaches a "make or break" point, according to one strategist. But essentially what that means is a bull trap squeeze, where there's a lot of leveraged, bullish views on [the] back of a consensus soft landing view, which ultimately is now make or break." William described a bull trap as a selling point in which bullish consensus is proven wrong.
Persons: Ron William, CNBC's, William, that's, Ron William's Organizations: Advisory Locations: U.S,
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