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☆ Trump might name Kevin Warsh as Treasury chief then Fed chair later, report says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

President-elect Donald Trump is considering naming Kevin Warsh as Treasury secretary then ultimately sending him off to serve as Federal Reserve chair, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The speculation comes with Treasury being the last major Cabinet position for which Trump has yet to state his intention. Among the potential scenarios would be one where Bessent would lead the National Economic Council initially then go over to Treasury after Warsh takes over at the Fed. However, Trump is known for the propensity to change his mind, and the report noted that nothing has been finalized. Read the full Wall Street Journal story here.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kevin Warsh, Warsh, Jerome Powell's, Trump, Marc Rowan, Scott Bessent Organizations: Wall, Fed, Treasury, Apollo Global Management, National Economic Council

☆ Investor focus shifts to rate cut outlook on Thanksgiving week, with Fed minutes and inflation data ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The interest rate outlook will come back into focus next week with key inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting minutes coming out ahead of Thanksgiving, as investors wrap up a major month for markets following President-elect Donald Trump's election victory. The October personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index set to release Wednesday could dent already-dimming hopes for a December rate cut if it comes in hotter than expected. The inflation rate is expected to have increased 0.2% month over month and 2.3% year on year. Rosy expectations Even with the interest rate cut expectations coming in, investors are optimistic on the direction for stocks to close out the year and into 2025. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin this week said he expects the S & P 500 can end next year at 6,500.

Persons: Donald Trump's, —, Luke O'Neill, Stocks, O'Neill, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Brian Belski, Tom Hainlin, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Alpha Fund, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, BMO, UBS, Bank Asset Management, Dell Technologies, Chicago, New, Richmond Fed, Devices, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: U.S, Chicago

☆ Donald Trump chooses hedge fund executive Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

President-elect Donald Trump signaled Friday his intention to nominate hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as his Treasury secretary, in a move that puts a seasoned market pro and a close Trump loyalist in a critical economic position. As head of Treasury, Bessent, 62, will be both the U.S. fiscal watchdog as well as a key official to help Trump enact his ambitious economic agenda. Like Trump, Bessent favors gradual tariffs and deregulation to push American business and control inflation. The Treasury secretary is the lynchpin for the White House economic agenda. Others close to the president-elect think Bessent has not been rigorous enough in his support for tariffs, though Warsh also has made public statements against the levies.

Persons: Scott Bessent, Donald Trump, Kevin Warsh, Marc Rowan, Trump, Bessent, George Soros, Soros, Jerome Powell's, Warsh, Janet Yellen, Elon Musk, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick Organizations: Key, Trump, Group, Treasury, Wall, World's, Investors, Yale University, Rockefeller University, Preservation, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, Federal, National Economic Council, White Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, Bessent

☆ Trump and Fed Chair Powell could be set on a collision course over interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

President-elect Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could be on a policy collision course in 2025 depending on how economic circumstances play out. That in turn could infuriate Trump, who lashed Fed officials including Powell during his first term in office for not relaxing monetary policy quickly enough. Though Powell became Fed chair in 2018, after Trump nominated him for the position, the two clashed often about the direction of interest rates. Should the results start to show up in the data, the Powell Fed may be tempted to hold tougher on monetary policy against inflation. "They're going to look at a very nontraditional approach to policy that Trump is bringing forward but put it through a very traditional economic lens," he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, infuriate Trump, Joseph LaVorgna, Trump Organizations: White, Washington , D.C, Federal, National Economic Council, Trump, Fed, Nikko Securities Locations: Rose, Washington ,, Trump's, Nikko

☆ Global equity returns are disappearing as U.S. stock market rockets higher
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Global stocks have largely fallen as the U.S. has rallied, the result of a confluence of factors. The fund gauges how global stocks minus U.S. equities are performing, and it features names such as Taiwan Semiconductor , Tencent and Novo Nordisk . The broad market index was marginally higher on the day and has soared nearly 24% year to date. The dollar index has jumped more than 2% in November, and has climbed nearly 5% year to date. .DXY 3M line Dollar index The underperformance of global stocks might provide some temptation to dive in at a time when they appear undervalued.

Persons: hasn't, Donald Trump, Nick Colas, MSCI ACWI, Colas Organizations: White, DataTrek Research, ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tencent, Novo Nordisk, ACWX Locations: U.S

☆ The battle over Trump's Treasury secretary is adding to the market's problems
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

President-elect Donald Trump's flurry of announcements regarding Cabinet nominees has left investors with one unexpected headache: a suddenly cloudy picture of who will take the all-important position of Treasury secretary. One somewhat new name to emerge into the Treasury conversation is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. However, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Warsh also has emerged as potential Treasury contender. Yields took another leg higher on Monday amid the Treasury uncertainty. However, Fundstrat research chief Tom Lee said that once the Treasury nominee issue is settled, that should restore some market confidence.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Scott Bessent, Sen, Bill Haggerty, Howard Lutnick, Elon Musk, Powell, Stocks, Kevin Warsh, Jerome Powell, Warsh, Evercore, Tom Lee, Lee Organizations: Key Square Group, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Trump Trade, Trump, Wall Street

☆ CNBC Daily Open: From postelection rally to preelection levels
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Last Monday, the S&P closed above 6,000 and the Dow finished the day above 44,000 for the first time. The so-called "Trump trade" — shares of banks, small-cap companies and energy, for example — were behind much of the indexes' gains. It was only the start of the week, but little did we know we were beginning at the peak.

Persons: SPX, Spencer Platt, Dow, Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Trump's, Kristy Akullian, Akullian, —, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Alex Harring Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Dow, Trump, Nasdaq, U.S . Department of Health, Human Services, BlackRock Locations: New York City, satiation, surfeit, Americas, BlackRock

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Powell’s comments drag investors down to earth from postelection high
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Shelby Tauber | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAfter enjoying the postelection rally, investors are turning their attention to issues like inflation and interest rates again. Powell added that the Fed doesn't need to be "in a hurry to lower rates" because the of "the strength we are currently seeing in the economy." For investors who were riding high on the postelection rally and are now descending to earth, their landing sure feels like a bumpy one.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Shelby Tauber, Powell, Rick Rieder, Rieder, —, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Sarah Min Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Fair, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Consumer, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S

☆ Markets are grappling with the impact of Trump's win and how the Fed will react
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

However, he went on to back up Chair Jerome Powell 's statement Thursday that the Fed doesn't need to be "in a hurry" to cut. "I do think if there's disagreement of what's the neutral rate, it does make sense at some point to start slowing." Getting to neutral, or a place that neither boosts nor restrains growth, is the Fed's ultimate goal, but Trump's victory could complicate the journey. The burst of euphoria after Trump's win actually complicates the situation by providing looser financial conditions that might make the Fed slower to ease. In any event, traders see a high likelihood that even if a December cut does happen, the Fed almost certainly will skip January as it assesses the landscape.

Persons: Donald Trump, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins Organizations: Trump, Wall, Federal, Chicago Federal, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Boston Fed, Traders

☆ Watch Fed Chair Powell speak live to business leaders in the Dallas area
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Thursday to business leaders in the Dallas-Fort Worth area on monetary policy. That followed a half-point cut in September and left the federal funds rate in a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. Economic readings this week, however, showed that inflation has proven sticky, with consumer price inflation at 2.6% and prices at the wholesale level at 2.4%. Markets expect the Fed to cut again in December then likely skip the January meeting as officials assess the effect of the policy-easing moves so far.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Trump Organizations: CNBC, YouTube Locations: Dallas, Fort Worth

☆ Powell says the Fed doesn't need to be 'in a hurry' to reduce interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Powell noted that the unemployment rate has been rising but has flattened out in recent months and remains low by historical standards. Specifically, he said the labor market is holding up well despite disappointing job growth in October largely that he attributed to storm damage in the Southeast and labor strikes. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. Powell added that the calculus of getting the move to neutral rate will be tricky. The Fed also has been allowing proceeds from its bond holdings to roll off its mammoth balance sheet each month.

Persons: Powell, Nonfarm, Jerome Powell Organizations: Traders, Federal, Committee Locations: Dallas

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wholesale prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line with expectations and mostly consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. Services rose 0.3% on the month, accounting for most of the PPI increase, and was driven largely by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management prices. Goods prices nudged higher by 0.1% after falling the previous two months.

Persons: Dow Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Traders, Labor Department

☆ Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. The consumer price index , which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September. Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Energy costs, which had been declining in recent months, were flat in October while the food index increased 0.2%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Trump, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Dow, of Labor Statistics, Stock, Federal Reserve, Energy, BLS, White, CPI, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

☆ Inflation report shows market could have a 'recipe for disaster' heading into new year, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-13 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

So far on Wednesday, the stock market was largely ignoring the morning's inflation report because the main CPI reading was as economists expected. But a look deeper into the report spells trouble for a stock market — and president-elect — that are going to want the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates throughout next year to keep fueling the bull market. However, in recent months, policymakers have focused more on the headline number, saying shelter costs, which have an outsized influence on core CPI, will come down. But core inflation has remained unusually stubborn, suggesting the Fed may have to hold rates higher than investors were previously anticipating. Core CPI showed a third straight monthly increase of 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 3.3%.

Persons: Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, Rupkey, Donald Trump, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Washington , D.C Locations: Washington ,

John Paulson visits "Mornings With Maria" at Fox Business Network Studios on October 23, 2024 in New York City. The investor John Paulson removed himself Tuesday from consideration as a potential nominee for Treasury secretary by President-elect Donald Trump. Paulson said, "My complex financial obligations would prevent me from holding an official position in President Trump's administration at this time." "However, I intend to remain actively involved with the President's economic team and helping in the implementation of President Trump's outstanding policy proposals," Paulson said in a statement. Paulson, who heads the Paulson & Co. family office, has a net worth of $3.8 billion, according to Forbes,

Persons: John Paulson, Maria, Donald Trump, Paulson, Trump's Organizations: Fox Business Network Studios, Paulson, Co, Forbes Locations: New York City

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Powell emphasizes that elections won't sway Fed's policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." According to the futures market, just 30.4% of traders think the Fed will cut rates again in January. "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, —, Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: Federal Reserve, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: Washington , DC

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Powell maintains that elections won't sway Fed's policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Kent Nishimura | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said. — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound and Alex Harring contributed to this report.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, —, Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: FTSE, Federal, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: GDAXI, Washington, Washington , DC

☆ Powell and the Fed won't be able to avoid talking about Trump forever
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Trump took a dim view of the Powell Fed during his first term in office, calling policymakers "boneheads" and once compared Powell to a golfer who couldn't putt. Powell, who was nominated by Trump in November 2017 and took office the following February, largely shrugged off the criticism then, and he again deflected Thursday. However, dealing with the ramifications of a Trump presidency will be almost unavoidable for the Fed leader. LaVorgna has a unique perspective on the situation, having served as chief economist for the National Economic Council under Trump. Trump historically has favored lower rates, though that too could change if the Fed cuts and inflation rises.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, I'm, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Lavorgna Organizations: Federal, Getty, firebrand Republican, Powell Fed, Trump, Fed, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, stoke

☆ Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says Trump's top priorities will be tax cuts, Iran sanctions and tariffs
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Steven Mnuchin, who held the post throughout Trump's first term from 2017-21, told CNBC that he sees those items as critical to the Republican's agenda. Tax cuts are "a signature part of his program," Mnuchin said in a "Squawk Box" interview. Also on the agenda would be tariffs, which Trump implemented on multiple items during his first term and promised to do again. Finally, he indicated that nations such as Iran and Russia can expect to see sanctions again. In the case of Iran, they're now selling millions of barrels of oil, which needs to be stopped," Mnuchin said.

Persons: Donald Trump, Steven Mnuchin, Mnuchin, Trump, they're, that's Organizations: CNBC, Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Liberty Strategic Capital Locations: China, Iran, Russia

☆ Traders see good chance the Fed cuts again in December then skips in January
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Nov. 6-7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting at William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 7, 2024. ET, market pricing pointed toward a 67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December and a 33% chance of a pause that month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a quarter-point December rate cut rose to more than 70% following the meeting, while the chances of a pause slipped to nearly 29%. Future rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch Tool are derived from trading in 30-day fed funds futures contracts. Meanwhile, the odds that the Federal Reserve would skip an interest rate cut in January was around 71%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowThe Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to rightsize monetary policy. Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down inflation while supporting the labor market. The statement slightly downgraded the labor market, saying "conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." Generally, the labor market has held up well. An acceleration in economic activity under Trump could persuade the Fed to cut rates less, depending on how inflation reacts.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, nonfarm, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, Pace Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, Gross, Atlanta Fed, Trump Locations: Tuesday's

☆ Fade the euphoria? Here's what could go wrong with the Trump trade
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks exploded higher, bonds tanked and crypto boomed to historic peaks, indicating lofty hopes for when the president-elect takes office in January. However, there's still a lot of game left to be played, and the score could change a lot in future days. Essentially, strategists worry Trump's plan for punishing tariffs, higher spending and lower taxes will send bond yields higher, generally a recipe for trouble in stocks. "The question for me is how much can the Trump rally extend in the short term, but it strikes me that selling long positions into a rally makes a good deal of sense." "This suggests an asymmetric risk/reward framework with a much higher probability of downside than upside," said Lisa Hornby, head of U.S. fixed income at Schroders.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Stocks, there's, Mark Dowding, Lisa Hornby Organizations: Trump, RBC Global Asset Management, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, Schroders

☆ The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again Thursday. Here's everything you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve likely will stick to the business at hand when it wraps up its meeting Thursday with another interest rate cut, but will have its eye on the future against a backdrop that suddenly has gotten a lot more complicated. The focus, though, will turn to what's ahead for Chair Jerome Powell and his Fed colleagues as they navigate a shifting economy — and the political earthquake of Donald Trump's stunning victory in the presidential race. So while the immediate action will be to stay the course and enact the cut, which equals 25 basis points, the market's attention likely will turn to what the committee and Powell have to say about the future. The fed funds rate, which sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but often influences consumer debt as well, is currently targeted in a range between 4.75%-5.0%. Market pricing currently favors another quarter-point cut in December, followed by a January pause then multiple reductions through 2025.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump's, Powell, Krishna Guha, Guha Organizations: Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI

☆ Trump Media shares gain 10% in after-hours trading as voting in heated presidential election nears end
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan on November 5, 2024. Shares in former President Donald Trump's media company pushed higher as voting wound down in the contentious presidential election campaign Tuesday. Trump Media & Technology Group was up 10% as formal after-hours trading came to an end on Tuesday evening, Election Day. The stock, seen as a market proxy for the former president's prospects as he seeks a second term in office, rallied despite a surprise earnings statement that showed the company lost $19.2 million in the third quarter. Shares have been volatile during the election season, rising and falling as Trump's fortunes swirled during his neck-and-neck race with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, swirled, Kamala Harris Organizations: Republican, Van Andel, Trump Media & Technology Group, Democratic Locations: Grand Rapids , Michigan

☆ As the election winds down, worries of 'bond vigilantes' and inflation hit markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Specifically, he warned about traders taking the 10-year Treasury yield , a bond market benchmark, above 5% — a level it hasn't seen since mid-2007. To be sure, there are myriad reasons why the bond market has been in a state of tumult since mid-September, political considerations of a second Trump term being just one of them. "The bond market could easily nullify the impacts of another rate cut. That's because the bond market believes the Fed is cutting rates by too much, too soon, and is therefore raising long-term inflation expectations. It could carry "higher tariffs and mass deportations, which triggers stagflation in the US including a second inflation spike," the bank said.

Persons: Donald Trump, Chip Somodevilla, Kamala Harris, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Trump, Harris, Kumar, it's, Karen Dynan, Trump's, Peterson, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fiserv, Republican National Convention, Treasury, Trump, Reserve, Bond, Yardeni Research, Sri, Kumar, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Republicans Locations: Milwaukee , Wisconsin, United States

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