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Traders cheered the expected end of rate hikes that have raised borrowing costs from minus 0.5% in just over a year. That sent euro zone government bond yields tumbling, the euro down and stocks (.STOXX) higher. The ECB cut its outlook for euro area growth this year to 0.7%, while economists polled by Reuters expect growth of 0.6%. A market rally is also likely unwelcome to the ECB. Hawkish policymakers have started calling for an earlier end to PEPP reinvestments, and the ECB is likely to begin a debate on furthering its balance-sheet runoff with rate hikes likely done.

Persons: Charles Diebel, Simon Bell, Jason Simpson, Anna Stupnytska, reinvesting, Mediolanum's Diebel, reinvestments, Divyang Shah, Christine Lagarde, Shah, Yoruk Bahceli, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: European Central Bank, Traders, Reuters Graphics, Mediolanum Asset Management, ECB, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, State, Fidelity International, Thomson Locations: Italy, Germany

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Hawkish central banks have sent a resounding "no" to markets betting recession would force rate cuts soon, leaving money managers scrambling for direction as the second half of the year approaches. "Markets have been wrong not only in their interpretation of the data but of the central bank reaction," he added. "Even though inflation is coming down, you are still getting that phase were the central banks think they need to talk hawkishly about this." Canada last week restarted rate hikes, Australia has come off a pause and Norway may have to accelerate hikes next week. BofA now expects two 25 bps interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, JPMorgan sees only one more and Morgan Stanley sees none.

Persons: Jason Simpson, Shorter, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Mark Nash, Nash, Kaspar Hense, Michael Michaelides, Shamik, BoE, they're, Dhar, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Conor Humphries Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, State, Bank of Japan, Treasury, JPMorgan, BlueBay Asset Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, Australia, Norway, Shamik Dhar

[1/2] European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks during a news conference following the ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsPresident Christine Lagarde noted it was impossible to determine the future rate path amid "completely elevated" uncertainty stemming from market ructions. "Given financial instability risks, there's growing uncertainty on future ECB actions beyond this pre-signalled rate hike," said Daniele Antonucci, chief economist and macro strategist at Quintet Private Bank. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said he was sticking to a call for a 4% peak ECB rate. "Unless this turns into a macroeconomic crisis then we are ripe for a sell-off and a repricing of rate hike expectations," he said.

Meanwhile, extremely wide forecasts for new public borrowing requirements make the outlook for government bonds uncertain. Here are the main budget predictions for UK stocks, gilts and the pound. However NatWest analysts flagged that the OBR will likely revise down growth forecasts for the next five years, making the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. Hunt will likely keep the budget "reasonably dull" after Truss's "mini-budget" sent sterling to its lowest on record, she added. Investors in UK stocks are already grappling with a wide valuation gap with U.S. equities.

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