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AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas
Three Wall Street banks have taken differing views on gold's trajectory in 2025, reflecting the complex economic outlook. Goldman Sachs expects the price of the yellow metal to reach $3,000 per ounce by December 2025, saying "Go For Gold" in a note from Nov. 17. The gold price has declined by 7% since late October as the risk of a disputed U.S. election result diminished. While maintaining a positive outlook on gold, UBS warned that its gains — gold had risen 35% this year until November — could slow down. Goldman Sachs pointed to a fivefold increase in central bank gold purchases, driven by concerns about financial sanctions and sovereign debt sustainability.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump's, Goldman, Daan Struyven, Karen Ward, Ward, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Trump, JPMorgan Asset Management, UBS Locations: U.S, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStill in good environment for risk in equities and corporate credit, says JPMorgan's SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management chief market strategist for the Americas, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss if the market momentum can continue, the upper limit of the market's multiple, and much more.
Persons: JPMorgan's Santos Gabriela Santos Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
The S & P 500 has risen 24.73% so far this year, up fractionally more than last year's 24.23%, according to FactSet data. The U.S.-listed Gotham Enhanced 500 ETF , which has the ticker GSPY, has also posted similar gains since 2021. JREU-GB .SPX 5Y line GSPY The Gotham Enhanced 500 ETF is a newer fund and so has a shorter track record of outperformance. Yet it has beaten the S & P 500 every year since its inception in 2021. Gotham ETFs say the fund "buys all 500 stocks in the S & P 500 Index but reweights them, buying more of the ones we think are cheaper and less of the ones we believe are more expensive."
Persons: Piera Elisa Grassi Organizations: Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan U.S, Research, Equity, Gotham, JPMorgan Asset Management, CNBC, JREU, New York Stock Exchange Locations: London, U.S, Gotham
AdvertisementUS stocks have been on a tear since Trump's win. "Let me tell you something: If Trump enacted 50% of what he's saying, you'll have a stock market crash, the likes that you haven't seen since the 1920s," Scaramucci said. You'll crush the economy; you'll crush our tax revenues; you'll flip upside down the job market," Scaramucci said. "They will not be ready for that, and so the stock market will have gotten wrong the current movement." "My guess is that the stock market aficionados, the stock market experts, are probably right," Scaramucci said.
Persons: SkyBridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci, Trump, there's, Scaramucci, , Anthony Scaramucci, it's, Bitcoin, Donald Trump's, didn't, David Bahnsen, he's, — Elon Musk, Elon, Tom Orlik, David Kelly, ​ ​, Susie Wiles Organizations: Service, House, SkyBridge, Business, Nasdaq, Russell, Trump, Bloomberg Economics, JPMorgan Asset Management, Republican
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Gabriela Santos: Next year's markets will be driven by policyAdam Parker, Trivariate Research founder and CEO; Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management global asset strategist; and Stephanie Guild, Robinhood head of investment strategy, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss market outlooks.
Persons: JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos, Adam Parker, Gabriela Santos, Stephanie Guild, Robinhood, CNBC's Organizations: Trivariate Research, JPMorgan Asset Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Adam Parker, Gabriela Santos, & Stephanie GuildAdam Parker, Trivariate Research founder and CEO; Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management global asset strategist; and Stephanie Guild, Robinhood head of investment strategy, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss market outlooks.
Persons: Adam Parker, Gabriela Santos, Stephanie Guild Adam Parker, Stephanie Guild, Robinhood, CNBC's Organizations: Trivariate Research, JPMorgan Asset Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRising bond yields is due to fear around the deficit, says JPMorgan's Priya MisraPriya Misra, JPMorgan Asset Management fixed income portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate cut decision this week, bond market volatility, state of the economy, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's Priya Misra Priya Misra Organizations: JPMorgan, Management
US stocks had one of their best days in years and hit new records after Trump's resounding win over Kamala Harris in Tuesday's election. Both of those moves make sense, said David Kelly, the global strategy chief at JPMorgan Asset Management, in an interview on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe strategy chief has been adamant that higher tariffs — one of Trump's key proposals — would cripple the US economy and endanger the global economic expansion. Related storiesMost economists condemn tariffs, which are taxes on imports, because they tend to lead to higher prices and lower economic growth. Sean Gallagher, the global head of Lazard's small-cap equity platform, made a similar point in a recent interview with Business Insider when asked about Trump's tariffs and Kelly's stance.
Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, David Kelly, Wall, he's, , Donald Trump's, Trump's, Kamala Harris, Kelly, Trump, Mahatma Gandhi, I'm, I've, Tom Orlik, who's, Chris Murphy, Susquehanna's, Orlik, Sean Gallagher, Gallagher, maven, He's, inflation's Organizations: House . Market, Service, Nasdaq, US, JPMorgan Asset Management, Republican, JPMAM, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Trump Locations: Tuesday's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor market is key focus of Fed rate cut, says Morgan Stanley's Jim CaronDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management CIO of cross asset solutions; and Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief economist join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss reactions to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter point.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron David Kelly, Jim Caron, Morgan, Stephanie Roth, Wolfe, CNBC's Organizations: Labor, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morgan Stanley Investment, Wolfe Research, Federal
The JPMorgan Asset Management's U.S. fund, already the largest active ETF in the world, returned 21.5% in 2021, including 8.15% as income. In 2022, when the S & P 500 index nearly fell into a bear market, the fund lost just 3.5% in value. Over the past couple of years, the fund has returned 7% to 9% in income on top of capital appreciation. Spence stressed that JPMorgan did not intentionally time its entry into Europe on one of the most volatile weeks of the year for global markets. One such fund is Global X's covered call ETF XYLD , which marginally outperformed JPMorgan's JEPI over the past two years.
Persons: Donald Trump's, JEPI, Hamilton Reiner, Travis Spence, Spence, Reiner Organizations: JPMorgan, JPMorgan Asset Management's, CNBC, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Borse, Six Swiss, Asset Management, U.S, Presidential, Global Locations: Europe, Germany, U.S, London, Netherlands, Italy, Switzerland
If Trump wins the election, the Fed could pause rate cuts in December, JPMorgan's David Kelly says. Kelly points to Trump's plans for expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation. Kelly pointed to Trump's plans for an expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation higher and keep rates from coming down. AdvertisementIn that case, the Fed would likely stick to its projected path of policy easing, Kelly said. Advertisement"Once they got some sense of what fiscal policy is going to do, I think that will have some impact on their decision-making.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, Harris, , Donald Trump, David Kelly, Trump, Kamala Harris, They're Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal, JPMorgan, Business, Fed
Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. Related storiesThese signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence. Such tariffs would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy," Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop cited tariffs as a top risk back in June. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway.
Persons: David Kelly, , JPMAM, Kelly, Donald Trump who's, Tom Orlik, Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop, I'd Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Economics, Peterson
However, real estate — specifically the commercial side — may be poised to take off. "This is absolutely the largest generational opportunity to invest in real estate in a long time," Issar said at the conference. "This is a time for investors to step in, move into attractive pricing, move into asset classes like non-core real estate." Investors can bet on a commercial real estate rebound by working with JPMAM's team, or on their own through publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs). "That is the modernization of the new direct real estate that is going to be really attractive for investors in the future."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs, they're, That's, David Kelly, what's, JPMAM, Kelly, David Lebovitz, Monica Issar, Issar Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Asset Management, Management, JPMorgan Private
Just ignore the word ‘tariff’ — it’s a tax
  + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Especially when you hear words like “tariffs.”But, given the economy’s central importance in the 2024 race, it’s worth hammering on an Econ 101 fact: Tariffs are a tax on Americans. Very simply: When the US government decides to put a tariff (read: tax) on, say, Chinese goods, the actual money going to the US Treasury comes from the American company doing the importing. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff,” Trump said at one point. But it’s important to judge Trump’s first-term trade policies and the Biden-Harris approach against context of the unprecedented tariff wave Trump is planning if he gets to Round Two. Bottom line: Tariffs might be a beautiful word to Trump’s ear, but he’s telling a fictional story about what they do in practice.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Donald Trump, It’s, , Annette Choi, Katie Lobosco, podcaster Sean Kelly, David Pakman, Kelly, he’s, ” Kelly, Pakman, , Trump, ” Trump, John Micklethwait, Micklethwait, it’s, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, Harris, , Scott Lincicome, United States —, ” David Kelly, Matt Egan Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, CNN, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Economic, of Chicago, Biden, Trump, Republican, Cato Institute, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal, Peterson Institute, Asset Management Locations: New York, China, United States, States
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should be overweight equities versus fixed income, says JPMorgan's Gabriela SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management chief market strategist for Americas, joins 'Squawk box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, where investors can find opportunities right now, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos Gabriela Santos Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
Wall Street's top performers are hard workers who tend to work long, intense hours. Business Insider asked its 2024 class of Wall Street stars about how they stay mentally sharp. Here's what we learned about the hacks, habits, and routines that help top talent on Wall Street stay on their game. The routine helps him stay present with his home life as well as work, he added. But I think those two things help me to at least stay recharged and stay ready each day," he said.
Persons: , Mark Zhu, Craig Kolwicz, Goldman Sachs, Corey White, Nina Gnedin, Blake Cecil, Chi Chen, Robert Sapolsky, Justin Elliott, Read, Palmer Osteen, KKR's, I've, That's, Daniela Cardona, America's White, Ben Carper, it's, there's, Matthew Eid, Holm, Reinhard Dirscherl, Melissa Ding, Wells, Annie Cheslin, she's, Margaret Williams, Morgan Stanley, Williams, Apollo's Austin Anton, Erica Wilson's, deadlifted, Harrison DiGia, Patrick Lenihan, barre, Elizabeth Stone Redding, Stone Redding, Matt Gilbert, Thoma, Gilbert, I'm, Dan, Feroz Khosla, isn't Organizations: Business, Service, Blackstone, Finance, Goldman, of America, Man Group, Productivity, Bridgewater Associates, Bank of America, Fidelity Investments, RBC, Bank, America's, Jefferies, Capital Advisory, Ares Management, Getty, BlackRock, Blue, General Atlantic, JPMorgan Asset Management, TPG, Thoma Bravo, Citadel Securities Locations: Blackstone, Chicago, San Francisco, Coast, Boston, Silicon Valley, New York, I'm, Maldives, he's, Thailand, Central Park
Yet, as markets eye a soft landing, potential shocks pose a higher risk to investors, David Kelly says. The firm's chief global strategist says the promise of a soft landing has encouraged Americans to pour into riskier assets at the exact time they shouldn't be. "I will say that although I think this is positive for the equity market, I am getting increasingly queasy about the fact that the equity market keeps on pricing in a soft landing," Kelly told Business Insider. He said that as the market prices in a soft landing, valuations rise, which means any shock to the market could send asset prices tumbling. According to Fed data, the total aggregate wealth of American households grew by about $50 trillion in the last five years.
Persons: David Kelly, , Kelly, shouldn't, you've, payrolls Organizations: Service, Asset, Business, Federal
CNBC Daily Open: October’s gravity bringing stocks down
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But gravity is catching up with stocks in October, which tends to be a volatile month. If the number of jobs added comes in higher than expected, markets are likely to react well. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.
Persons: Michael M, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City
CNBC Daily Open: Stocks can’t defy October’s gravity
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] How to play the jobs report The U.S. jobs report for September, coming out later today, will indicate if the economy will be able to achieve a soft landing or is headed toward a recession. Analysts at JPMorgan break down how the S&P 500 could react , depending on the number of jobs added for September. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.
Persons: AI's, Nvidia's, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Port, U.S, International Longshoremen's Association, United States Maritime Alliance, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City, U.S, East, Gulf Coast
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy's on the track the Fed wants and they can follow the dot plot, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Friday's jobs report in regards to the Fed's monetary policy, if there's a risk-on signal for equity markets, and much more.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
"The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. Looking for cluesStill, markets will in fact be watching the report closely. At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Katie Nixon, We've, there's, David Kelly, Helene —, JPMorgan's Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Trust Wealth Management, Labor Department, Asset Management, Labor Statistics Locations: Albany, Latham , New York
Patrick Lenihan, 33, JPMorgan Asset ManagementJP Morgan Asset ManagementAt JPMorgan Asset Management, Lenihan manages $21 billion in 8,000 customizable portfolios that provide generous tax advantages for the firm's clients. The dual role of fund manager and product developer combines his interest in finance with his engineering background. Lenihan led the development of a product that required buy-in from across internal tech teams, third-party partners, and operations. Lenihan also launched a mentoring program that seeks to build connectivity among different teams at the asset manager. "I have learned firsthand about how successful you can be with those close partnerships when you work together, " he said.
Persons: Patrick Lenihan, Lenihan, Ted Dimig Organizations: JPMorgan Asset, Asset Management, JPMorgan Asset Management, JPMorgan, Chrysler, University of Michigan, CFA, Wharton
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCurrent environment means global expansion continues and risk assets do well, says JPM's SantosGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management chief market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what investors are supposed to do in today's market, why the money in cash should find its way into credit more than equities, and much more.
Persons: JPM's Santos Gabriela Santos Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
Watch CNBC's full discussion with the 'Closing Bell' panel
  + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full discussion with the 'Closing Bell' panelGabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management, Malcolm Ethridge, CIC Wealth, and Joe Terranova, Virtus Investment Partners, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the latest news affecting markets.
Persons: Gabriela Santos, Malcolm Ethridge, Joe Terranova Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Wealth, Virtus Investment Partners
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