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But price rises in Russia are eye-watering by comparison – and just one symptom of an economy that is overheating. “Prices are rising because of the war,” Alexandra Prokopenko at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin told CNN. The military budget will rise by nearly a quarter in 2025, amounting to one-third of all state spending and 6.3 per cent of gross domestic product. Analysts don’t see the Russian economy as tumbling over a precipice but instead as a slowly gathering crisis. Russia has traditionally turned to central Asia for unskilled labor, and Putin recently suggested more foreign workers are needed.
Persons: ” Alexandra Prokopenko, Vladimir Putin, Putin, , Anton Vaganov, ” Prokopenko, Natalia Kolesnikova, Vladislav Inozemtsev, Prokopenko Organizations: CNN, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, , Reuters, Russia’s Alfa Bank, Alfa, Monetary Fund, Russia’s State Statistics Service, Getty, Central, United Nations, UK Defense Ministry, Atlantic Council Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Berlin, Saint Petersburg, United States, Asia, Turkey, Russian, India, China, AFP, Moscow, Central Asia, East, South Korea, Dubai
Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during an event at the Peterson Institute of Economics (PIIE) during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Oct. 25, 2024. Central banks have managed to engineer a soft landing through a period of "continual and unprecedented shocks," but there is still a risk of global inflation returning and of economic growth slowing down, according to India's central bank chief. Speaking Thursday in Mumbai, India, at CNBC-TV18's Global Leadership Summit, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said monetary policy from global central banks had largely "performed well" in recent years despite conflicts, geopolitical tensions and higher volatility. "A soft landing has been ensured but risks of inflation — as I speak to you here today — risks of inflation coming back and growth slowing down do remain," Das said. Das pointed to several contradictions in global markets to underline his view, including the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, even as the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates.
Persons: Shaktikanta Das, Das Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Peterson Institute of Economics, International Monetary Fund, Bank, CNBC, Leadership, U.S ., Federal Reserve, U.S Locations: Washington , DC, Central, Mumbai, India, London
BEIJING — China on Friday announced the central government would allocate an additional 6 trillion yuan ($840 billion) to local governments for tackling hidden debt issues. The policies will reduce hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, Lan said. At the parliamentary meeting, officials had reviewed a plan to increase the limit on how much debt local governments can issue, according to state media. The additional quota would go toward swapping out local governments’ hidden debt. Nomura estimates that China has 50 trillion yuan to 60 trillion yuan ($7 trillion to $8.4 trillion) in such hidden debt, and said it expected that Beijing could allow local authorities to increase debt issuance by 10 trillion yuan over the next few years.
Persons: of Finance Lan Fo’an, Lan, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump —, , Nomura Organizations: Friday, of Finance, People’s Bank of, People’s Congress, U.S, Nomura, International Monetary Fund Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, People’s Bank of China, Covid
China has announced a local government debt rescue program days after Trump won the US election. Trump has threatened tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods, complicating China's economic gloom. AdvertisementChina announced a debt rescue program to the tune of $1.4 trillion to save heavily indebted local governments and boost its economy. The plan also allows local governments to tap 4 trillion yuan in special local bonds over five years. China's local governments have been struggling to repay their LGFV debt, which the International Monetary Fund estimated to be around 60 trillion as of last year.
Persons: Trump, , Li Kiang, Donald Trump's, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's Organizations: Trump, Service, China, China's, National People's Congress, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Locations: China, Xinhua, Beijing, Washington, Asia, Japan
Russia's war economy ins't in imminent danger of collapse, economist Vladislav Inozemstev said. AdvertisementRussia may stand a better chance at sustaining its war economy than previously thought. "The people realize that the 'war economy' has substituted the anemic economic condition of the 2010s." Inozemstev said he expected Russia's economy to continue to grow in 2025 and beyond, forecasting 2%-2.5% GDP growth next year. The International Monetary Fund has said it is expecting Russia's economy to expand by 3.6% in 2024.
Persons: Vladislav Inozemstev, , Inozemstev Organizations: Service, Middle East Media Research Institute, Kremlin, Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Russian, Soviet Union
That explains a lot about why Trump was reelected. Why the US economy stings so muchHousing: America’s home prices have reached new record highs for 15 straight months. No, really, the US economy is greatStill, Trump will be inheriting a strong economy — on paper, anyway. But they’re still growing at a 3.9% adjusted rate, according to the Department of Labor. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of America’s economy, is surging, rising 3.7% last quarter, the highest rate of growth since the first quarter of 2023, according to the BEA.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, they’re, Biden, Covid, That’s, Trump’s Organizations: CNN, Republican, US Department of Housing, Urban Development, Bank of America, Brookings Institution, White, Democratic, Democrat, Companies, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Gross, Economic, International Monetary Fund, Labor, BEA Locations: America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIMF says Asia-Pacific's economic situation is 'better than expected'Thomas Helbling, Asia-Pacific deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, compares the region's economic outlook with the rest of the world's.
Persons: Thomas Helbling Organizations: IMF, International Monetary Fund Locations: Asia, Pacific
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has continued to emerge as an economic winner of increasing geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, though risks from fragmentation remain, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says. Though U.S.-China tensions have been deteriorating in recent years, ASEAN has adapted and continued to integrate with the global economy, the IMF said in its latest Asia-Pacific Outlook report, released Friday. "Despite geopolitical tensions, ASEAN has continued to strengthen trade and investment links with both China and the U.S.," the report said. "[T]he region has even been able to take advantage of trade diversion opportunities caused by US-China trade tensions," the report added. Overall, the IMF says these trends have contributed to the ASEAN region increasing its share of inward foreign direct investment, world exports and global value added.
Persons: Donald Trump, Biden Organizations: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, International Monetary Fund, U.S, ASEAN, IMF, Former U.S, China - Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia, China, United States, Asia, U.S, Beijing, China - U.S, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, Pacific
Russia faces a crisis whether it continues the war or not, economist Alexander Mertens says. War spending has been a major boost to Moscow's GDP growth and wealth, and ending the war will be tricky. If Russia continues the war, the economy looks on track for a "severe recession" and long-running stagnation, Mertens said. "The current state of the Russian economy is far from critical but it does present Putin with a dilemma. The Russian economy is not yet close to collapse, but it is increasingly dependent on wartime conditions and faces growing risks of overheating."
Persons: Alexander Mertens, , Vladimir Putin, Mertens, Merten, Putin, That's Organizations: Service, Kyiv's International Institute of Business, Ukraine, Atlantic Council, Russian National Welfare Fund, Kremlin, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Ukrainian, Ukraine
The court that imposed the fine might be in for a long wait for Google to pay up, however. “This should be a reason for the Google leadership to pay attention to this and improve the situation.”The amount the court says Google owes is growing, too. The court ordered Google to restore the accounts within nine months, with a fine of 100,000 rubles (around $1,000) levied for each day after that period. Some of those Russian media outlets have also appealed to courts in Turkey, Hungary, Spain and South Africa to enforce court decisions made against Google in Russia. In the section of its third quarter earnings release titled 'Legal Matters,' Alphabet said: “We have ongoing legal matters relating to Russia.
Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, it’s, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Dmitry Peskov, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Konstantin Malofeev Organizations: Google, Kremlin, NBC, RBC, YouTube, International Monetary Fund, NBC News, Wagner Group Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Turkey, Hungary, Spain, South Africa, Russia, South Africa’s
London CNN —Russia is seeking an unfathomable sum of money from one of the world’s biggest tech companies. Google reportedly owes the Kremlin more than 2 undecillion rubles — a 2 followed by 36 zeroes — after refusing to pay fines for blocking pro-Russian channels on YouTube. The virtually unpronounceable penalty amounts to $20 decillion — or around $20 billion trillion trillion. Russian state media TASS reported this week that a Russian court has ordered Google to restore the YouTube channels or else face mounting charges. In quarterly earnings published this week, the company referred to “ongoing legal matters” relating to its business in Russia.
Persons: Organizations: London CNN —, Google, YouTube, International Monetary Fund, TASS, ” TASS, CNN Locations: London CNN — Russia, Russia, , Ukraine
Although sentiment is improving (more on that soon), poll after poll suggests that Americans hold largely negative views about the US economy. And the US economy remains a job-creation machine, adding 368,000 jobs per month on average during the Biden administration, a record high. But they’re still growing at a 3.9% adjusted rate, according to the Department of Labor. A recent study from the Brookings Institution, released last week, found a correlation between economic sentiment and political affiliation with the party in control of the White House. When Trump took office, Republican economic sentiment surged, while Democratic sentiment cratered.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Biden, Trump, Covid, That’s, Donald Trump, they’re Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Gross, Economic, International Monetary Fund, Labor, BEA, US Department of Housing, Urban Development, Bank of America, Brookings Institution, White, Democratic, Republican, Democrat
Europe’s biggest economy narrowly avoids recession
  + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
London CNN —Germany escaped a recession in the third quarter, official data showed Wednesday, offering some relief to Europe’s biggest economy as its fortunes falter. Destatis revised down GDP figures for the second quarter from -0.1% previously. Germany’s economy shrank last year for the first time since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The outlook isn’t much brighter: the International Monetary Fund sees zero economic growth this year, marking the weakest performance among major economies. A sharp drop in profit at Volkswagen only intensified the bad news on economic growth.
Persons: London CNN —, Destatis Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Federal, Office, International Monetary Fund, Volkswagen Locations: London CNN — Germany
Japan's longtime ruling Liberal Democratic Party may have suffered an election shock, but analysts said that's unlikely to deter the Bank of Japan from its interest rate hike cycle. In Sunday's elections, the LDP lost its majority in Japan's lower house for the first time since 2009. Besides its junior coalition partner Komeito, the LDP will need to work with other parties to form a government. The political turmoil comes ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting this week. Roughly 86% of economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to leave its rates unchanged when it announces its decision Thursday.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Japan's, Komeito, David Boling, CNBC's, they're, Izumi Devalier, Devalier, you've Organizations: Japan, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of Japan, LDP, Eurasia Group, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington , U.S, Japan
Russia faces sweeping sanctions over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has been locked out of the US dollar-dominated global financial system, including the widely used SWIFT financial messaging system, making payments and transactions challenging. The Kazan Declaration, issued Wednesday, did not mention global dollar dominance — but it highlighted alternatives. AdvertisementChina — even though it's in a prolonged slowdown — is expected to be the top contributor, accounting for about one-fifth of global growth over the five years. AdvertisementHowever, BRICS economies have a smaller global presence in global financial flows, limiting the impact of de-dollarization, the ING analysts added. Other issues include what countries would use the alternative currencies for and if the West would sanction such alternative systems, he said.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Putin, , he's, Alexander Kolyandr, Tom Keatinge Organizations: Service, ING, United, United Arab Emirates, Bloomberg, International Monetary, Center for, Centre for Finance, Security, Royal United Services Institute Locations: BRICS, Russian, Kazan, Russia, Ukraine, cryptocurrencies, Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, United Arab, USA
London CNN —Iceland’s economy is outperforming most European peers after the nationwide introduction of a shorter working week with no loss in pay, according to research released Friday. In two large trials between 2015 and 2019, public sector employees in Iceland worked 35-36 hours per week, with no reduction in pay. The trials involved 2,500 people — more than 1% of Iceland’s working population at the time — and were aimed at maintaining or increasing productivity while improving work-life balance. Following the trials, Icelandic trade unions negotiated reductions in working hours for tens of thousands of their members across the country. That is much higher than the country’s average growth rate of almost 2% in the decade between 2006 and 2015.
Persons: Alda Organizations: London CNN, Autonomy Institute, Iceland’s Association for Sustainability, Democracy, Iceland …, International Monetary Locations: Iceland, Europe, United Kingdom, Malta, United States, Ireland
“Taiwan's membership at the IMF would help boost financial resilience,” the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington said during this week's IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Taiwan also is seeking to participate in the U.N. World Health Organization's annual World Health Assembly and join Interpol. But China, which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and threatens to annex it by force, has blocked such efforts and insists it represent Taiwan in international forums. The island is now designated as “Taiwan Province of China” in IMF literature. The U.S. House has approved a bill that would direct the United States to advocate for Taiwan’s IMF membership.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Bo Li, Patrick McHenry, ” McHenry, Young Kim, Fatima Hussein Organizations: WASHINGTON, , International Monetary Fund, IMF, Cultural, World Bank, U.S, Health Assembly, Interpol, U.S . State Department, People’s Bank of China, Taiwan Academy of Banking, Finance, U.S . House, Democrats, North Carolina Republican, Financial Services, United Nations, Associated Press Locations: — Taiwan, Poland, Taipei, Washington, Taiwan, U.S, China, Taiwan Province, United States, Japan, Taiwan Strait, Beijing, Kosovo, Europe
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner on Friday warned that if the U.S. kicked off a trade war with the European Union, there could be retaliation. Trade is one of the main pillars of the German economy, suggesting heightened tensions, uncertainty and tariffs would hit the country harder than others. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and the EU and China, have been rising throughout the year. Both the U.S. and EU have implemented higher tariffs and on some goods imported from China, citing unfair trade practices. China in turn has also announced higher temporary tariffs on some imports from the EU.
Persons: Christian Lindner, Janet Yellen, Lindner, CNBC's Karen Tso, Donald Trump, it's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Trump Organizations: IMF, World Bank, German, European Union, International Monetary, Washington , D.C, Free Democratic Party, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party, U.S, EU, Reuters Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, Washington ,, China, EU, Germany
World Bank President Ajay Banga speaks during an interview with Reuters in Washington, U.S., October 15, 2024. The World Bank announced on Thursday a new gender strategy aimed at boosting economic opportunities for women and enabling their participation in the global economy through social protection and access to broadband and capital. The Gender Strategy 2024-2030, unveiled during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Washington, has set goals by 2030 that aim to enable 300 million more women to use broadband internet, unlocking essential services, financial services, education and job opportunities.
Persons: Ajay Banga Organizations: Reuters, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Bank Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington
Mārtiņš Kazāks, Bank of Latviawatch nowOn a 50-basis-point rate cut: "Well, everything should be on the table, you know, given what the data tells us. Klaas Knot, Netherlands central bankwatch now"Are we risking a structural undershoot of our inflation target? Joachim Nagel, German central bankwatch nowOn rate cuts: "This discussion about 25 or maybe something different is not helpful. On rate cuts: "The direction is clear. Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuaniawatch nowOn rate cuts: "We are clearly moving ... towards the direction of easing monetary policy.
Persons: Karen Tso, Pierre Wunsch, I'm, we've, Mario Centeno, Klaas, It's, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, disinflation, Volcker, Olli Rehn, it's, Gediminas Šimkus, Boris Vujčić Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary, Bank of Latvia, National Bank of Belgium, Bank of Portugal, Austrian National Bank, Bank of France, Bank of Finland, Bank of Lithuania, Croatian National Bank Locations: Washington ,, Kazāks, Netherlands, German, Galhau, Europe
For Chinese imports, Trump has proposed an even steeper 60% tariff. Many economists have warned that tariffs planned by Trump will hurt global economic growth and drive up inflation in the US, as well as abroad if other countries introduce higher levies on US imports in response. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also sees a hit to global gross domestic product from increased tariffs around the world, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. Mario Tama/Getty ImagesA rise in protectionism around the world means open trade is already under threat and the ability of its champion, the World Trade Organization, to settle international trade disputes is severely constrained. “What we’d see in Trump 2 is far more radical than what we saw in Trump 1.”
Persons: Smoot, Donald Trump, Federal Reserve — Trump, Trump, , Evan Vucci, he’s, Maurice Obstfeld, Kristalina Georgieva, , Mario Tama, ” Obstfeld, ” Petros Mavroidis, Scott Olson, Joe Biden, André Sapir, Bruegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Trump, ” Edward Alden, ” Alden Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Economic, of Chicago, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Republican, UBS, Monetary Fund, ABN AMRO, Peterson Institute, IMF, White, Port, World Trade Organization, CNN, Columbia Law School, US, European Union, EU, greenback, Foreign Relations, Locations: United States, Hawley, Washington, DC, China, Ukraine, Chicago, Japan, France, South Korea, Port of Los Angeles, Indiana, Portage , Indiana, Brussels, Trump
U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves on Thursday confirmed she intends to change the country's fiscal rules in the October budget, a move designed to free up billions of pounds for investment. Writing in The Financial Times on Thursday, Reeves said her "investment rule" will "get debt falling as a proportion of our economy." A Treasury spokesperson declined to comment when asked whether the fiscal rule change would target PSNFL in the U.K.'s measure of debt. The Institute for Fiscal Studies, an influential think tank, said on Sept. 30 that a change in the fiscal rules to target PSNFL would offer as much as £50 billion ($64.8 billion) of additional headroom for the government. Reeves confirmed the change to Britain's fiscal rules during a trip to the International Monetary Fund's annual meetings in Washington.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Labour government's, Reeves, Keir Starmer Organizations: Britain's, Finance, Labour, Financial, Treasury, Fiscal Studies, International Monetary Locations: Washington
Commercial real estate foreclosures spiked last month. AdvertisementCommercial real estate foreclosures jumped on a monthly and year-over-year basis in September, according to real estate data and analytics firm ATTOM. Commercial foreclosures saw the biggest year-over-year increase in California, with foreclosures on commercial buildings soaring 238% from the same time last year. In New York, foreclosures rose 48% year-over-year, while in Florida, foreclosures rose 49% year-over-year. Related storiesReal estate experts have been warning of more distress to come for commercial real estate, particularly in the office segment.
Persons: ATTOM, Organizations: Service, Mortgage, Association, International Monetary Fund Locations: California, ATTOM's, New York, Florida
Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of a possible worsening of the state of China's property market as it trimmed its growth expectations for the world's second-largest economy. In a report published Tuesday, the IMF trimmed its forecast for growth in China for this year to 4.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in its July projection. In 2025, growth is expected to come in at 4.5%, according to the IMF. The Washington, D.C.-based organization also highlighted that China's property sector contracting by more than expected is one of many downside risks for the global economic outlook. Subsidies in certain sectors, if targeted to boost exports, could exacerbate trade tensions with China's trading partners," the agency said.
Persons: Qilai Shen, Gourinchas Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary Fund, IMF, The, D.C, U.S, Reuters Locations: Nanjing, Shanghai, China, The Washington, Japan
Global public debt will rise above $100 trillion by the end of 2024, the agency projected in its annual Fiscal Monitor report. By the end of the decade, the IMF forecasts global public debt will reach 100% of world GDP. The U.S. and China account for a significant share of rising public debt levels. If the two countries were excluded from calculations, the global public debt to GDP ratio would fall around 20%, the IMF said. Unsustainable debt levels place countries' markets at risk of a sudden sell-off if investors view a country's fiscal health as too poor.
Persons: Vitor Gaspar, shutdowns, spending's Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Monetary Fund, Global, U.S . Treasury Department Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, China, Saharan Africa
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