More than $200 billion in assets track the JPMorgan Emerging Market Index in which India will eventually have a weight of 10% by March 2025, suggesting total passive inflows of at least $20 billion over the 10-month period.
Since there is no precedent for these debt index-related inflows, bankers' estimates of the timing of flows are based on similar index adjustments in the equity markets.
"Obviously, all this is a first and you can't be sure how things will be," the head of trading at a large foreign bank cautioned.
In anticipation, large foreign banks could look at building short dollar/rupee positions to help manage inflows when they happen, an FX trader at a foreign bank said.
As a senior banker at a large foreign bank said: "all the pipes that have been put in place might not work."
Organizations:
JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of India, FX
Locations:
India