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☆ Gold is outperforming tech stocks this year, and investors should keep buying, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett advises buying gold amid record-high prices. Gold's year-to-date rally of about 20% is outperforming US tech stocks. AdvertisementInvestors should buy gold even as the metal hovers around record-high prices, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. AdvertisementHartnett noted that gold is the only asset that's outperforming US tech shares. AdvertisementThe juxtaposition of record-high gold prices and negative outflows is "explained only by unprecedented central bank buying," Hartnett said, adding China's central bank was the largest buyer of gold in 2023.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, —, haven't Organizations: of America, stoke, Service, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, 2nd

☆ 'Sell the first rate cut': Bank of America's top global strategist warns stocks could be in for trouble as the economy heads toward a hard landing and the Fed gets set to slash rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

In an August 1 note to clients, the bank's top global strategist urged investors to sell stocks when the Federal Reserve issues its first rate cut. Hartnett and his team studied the last 12 rate-cutting cycles going back to 1970 and identified three varieties of rate cuts. Hartnett said surging global central bank rate cuts are signs that the economy is in for a rough stretch. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time this cycle at its September meeting. "Emergency Fed rate cuts being priced in makes little sense given the economic backdrop in the U.S. and would only serve to destroy policy maker credibility."

Persons: —, America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Louis, Jean, Louis Nakamura, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Hartnett's, Jim Smigiel Organizations: Service, America's, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America Bank of America, Bank of America, Louis Fed, Bank of America's, Global, SEI Locations: U.S

☆ M. Night Shyamalan's new thriller 'Trap' is inspired by the true story of a twisted sting operation
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Olivia Singh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewDirector M. Night Shyamalan's new thriller, "Trap," is filled with twists and turns, but its premise is grounded in a real-life sting operation that took place in the '80s. Here's how the sting operation partly inspired Shyamalan's film. Related storiesAccording to The Washington Post, Operation Sting led to 144 arrests. Shyamalan said that the sting operation was 'hilarious' and the absurdity of the fakeout stuck with himHartnett as Cooper and Donoghue as Riley in "Trap." "Trap" isn't a comedy by any means, but the dark humor of Operation Flagship informed the movie.

Persons: —, Josh Hartnett, Cooper, Riley, Ariel Donoghue, Lady Raven, Shyamalan's, Saleka, Bernie Boston, Sting, Shyamalan, Hartnett, Donoghue, Sabrina Lantos, Lambs, Taylor, Dexerto Organizations: Service, Business, Flagship, DC, US, Washington Redskins, International Sports Television, Fugitive, Redskins, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Convention Center, Special Operations, The Washington, Warner Bros, Empire, FBI Locations: Washington

☆ BofA investment chief reveals his 2nd-half playbook: Buy dips in bonds, and sell stocks after the first rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should buy dips in bonds and sell stocks after the Fed's first interest rate cut, according to Bank of America. The call from Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett is a reversal of his "anything but bonds trade." The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. AdvertisementBank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett is shaking up his trading playbook for the second half of the year. In a note on Friday, Hartnett recommended investors buy dips in bonds and sell stocks after the Federal Reserve makes its first interest rate cut.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, —, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, ABB, UST, PMI, Fed

☆ 5 defensive trades to make if stagflation and hard-landing fears cause a stock sell-off, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks are vulnerable to a stagflation or hard landing rebound, says Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. AdvertisementStock markets face downturn risk if stagflation or recession anxiety re-materializes, Bank of America's top global strategist Michael Hartnett wrote on Tuesday. "Sentiment not at 'close-eyes-and-sell' levels but risk assets vulnerable to more evidence of stagflation," he noted in the bank's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. Although outlooks have since calmed, stagflation seemed like a growing possibility last month, when estimate-beating inflation data eclipsed shallow first-quarter GDP. Stagflation may have some part to play, as inflation remains the leading tail risk, while fears of an "economic hard landing" grew stronger.

Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, —, Michael Hartnett, stagflation Organizations: America's, Service, materializes, Bank of America's, Global Fund, Survey, Japan Utilities, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Europe, Japan

☆ Stocks' bull run will end in a bubble or recession, says Bank of America strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.

Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, —, of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns of growing bubble risk in the stock market as the economy heads for a no-landing scenario — and shares 3 charts showing the market could be headed for tro
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewMichael Hartnett, Bank of America's top global strategist, thinks a no-landing scenario is the most-likely outcome for the US economy in the months ahead. That means the labor market would remain strong, but inflation would also stay above the Federal Reserve's long-term goal of 2%. While that's fine for now, Hartnett warns it's a path that eventually leads to trouble for the economy and stocks. "We say rising no landing risks = rising hard landing risks," Hartnett said in an April 11 note. The fund's price dipped below its 200-day moving average in 2020 and 2022, when the economy slowed and stocks underperformed.

Persons: —, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it's, Michael Landsberg Organizations: Service, Bank of America's, Business, Consumer, Bank of America, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Fed Locations: REITs, Ukraine

☆ Bank of America unveils its top 10 trades for 2024, and 6 signs that would confirm a true bull market has arrived
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here are the indicators he's watching in 2024, and the trades investors should make now so that when the bull market finally arrives, they will be well-positioned to profit. Bank of America, alongside BMO, believes that the S&P 500 could beat its all-time high and soar over 5,000 next year. But in the back half of 2024, Hartnett believes the "3Cs" and the "3Ps" will combine to kick off a bull market in the "3Bs": bonds, bullion, and breadth. "Bonds can easily deliver equity-like returns in 2024," Hartnett wrote, particularly if "a weaker US economy & Fed cuts delivers cyclical decline in bond yields & US dollar (+ve gold)." Hartnett wrote that any panic policy moves could be a "catalyst for outperformance of leverage over quality, small over large, value over growth, international over US."

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, there's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Business, America's, BMO, SOX Locations: XBD, Japan, China

☆ Bank of America's Michael Hartnett thinks the market is ignoring risks of a hard landing in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"We believe the risk of a 'hard landing' for the economy is higher-than-expected." In that kind of a climate, Hartnett expects commodities, including copper and oil, to outperform, along with bonds and cash. "We are sellers of crowded 'no landing' plays into recession," Hartnett said, making a call that includes the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks along with semiconductors, homebuilders and biotech. The firm is "buyers of 'hard landing' plays at onset of recession," he said, including REITs, banks, defensive stocks, small-cap stocks and China. Despite Hartnett's warnings, BofA overall is looking for a soft landing with easier monetary policy.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Bulls, U.S ., Reserve Locations: BofA, China

☆ Bank of America’s investment strategist says the S&P 500 correction could last until it hits this level
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market could see further damage if one key index can't hold an important technical level, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. Looking at several key indexes, Hartnett said in a client note Thursday that selling pressure has persisted even in less tech-sensitive parts of the market, specifically citing the S & P 500 Equal-Weighted index. If that can't hold onto the 5,540 level — it closed Thursday at 5,501 — it could signal further pressure on the more widely followed S & P 500 market-cap weighted index. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD While still up 7.8% for 2023, the S & P 500 has tumbled about 14% from its all-time high. However, Harnett said he won't get bullish until the "3Ps" kick in: "bearish positioning combines with recessionary Profits to Policy easing."

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Harnett Organizations: Bank of America, Wall Locations: Thursday's

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Falling job openings raise red flags for the stock market - 'Sell the last hike'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

An ongoing decline in job openings is not a good sign for the stock market, according to Bank of America. Job openings have dropped 27% since their peak of 12 million in March 2022. The bank highlighted that since 2001, job openings and the S&P 500 have had a strong correlation. With job openings down 27% since their March 2022 peak of 12 million, that suggests the stock market is likely to follow. "Strong correlation between US job openings (labor demand) and stock market," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note.

Persons: bode, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, that's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America's, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Oil, the dollar, and the Fed still pose a triple threat to the US economy, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Don't rule out a hard landing for the US economy just yet, according to Bank of America. Strategists led by Michael Hartnett warned that oil, the dollar, and the Federal Reserve all still pose a threat. Their gloomy outlook clashes with much of Wall Street, with top banks and the Fed itself having shelved their recession predictions. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Hartnett's team said the consensus view is that there's a 20% chance of a hard landing – but warned the trifecta of oil, the dollar, and the Fed each still pose an economic threat.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, that's, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Susan Collins Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Fed, Service, Federal, West Texas, Boston Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Brent, Russia, Saudi Arabia

☆ Bank of America's top global strategist warns there's 'plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside' as 80% of recessions since 1933 have torpedoed stocks by 20% after they started
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Hartnett says S&P 500 EPS will fall by 16% in 2023, compared to the market's view of -4%. Some argue that stocks have already priced in a recession, having fallen 20% in 2022 (though the S&P 500 has rallied 8% year-to-date). He continued: "Plenty of room for more S&P 500 downside…since 1929, 2/3 of the S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns have occurred during, not before, US recessions." So whether we have an economic recession or not it isn't as important as the earnings recession," he said. Most strategists see a more mild decline in store for stocks, and most — including Wilson — see the S&P 500 finishing the year somewhere near 4,000.

☆ Bank of America gives its best investing plays for the start of a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors need to prepare as signs build that a recession is coming, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett. The "drumbeat of recession [is] getting ever louder," the investment strategist said in his weekly "Flow Show" note that looks at where money is moving. Hartnett's "best plays for start of recession" include Treasury bills, which he said outperform until the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates. In this case, Hartnett likes that play in anticipation that the Federal Reserve likely will have to begin easing as unemployment rises later in the year. And, of course, nothing lasts forever, so Hartnett advises investors to prepare a "shopping list" of things to buy when conditions change.

☆ Bonds are in the midst of the worst crash since 1949, and its set to unravel some of the market's most crowded trades, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The worst bond market decline since 1949 is set to disrupt the stock market, according to Bank of America. The bank said soaring interest rates will unwind the most crowded trades in the stock market, including long US tech. "Bond crash in recent weeks means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in," BofA said. Bonds are experiencing their worst decline since 1949 as interest rates soar amid a global central bank campaign to fight inflation. "Bond crash in recent weeks means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in," BofA's Michael Hartnett said.

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