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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Powell maintains that elections won't sway Fed's policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Kent Nishimura | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said. — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound and Alex Harring contributed to this report.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, —, Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: FTSE, Federal, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: GDAXI, Washington, Washington , DC

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Powell emphasizes that elections won't sway Fed's policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Powell, in yesterday's press conference, maintained that "the election will have no effect on our policy decisions." According to the futures market, just 30.4% of traders think the Fed will cut rates again in January. "By December, we'll have more data, I guess one more employer report, two more inflation reports and lots of other data," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Caballero, Reynolds, Jim Reid, Trump, Scott Helfstein, Powell, we'll, that's, —, Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Jesse Pound, Alex Harring Organizations: Federal Reserve, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Deutsche, Tech, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Global, Congress, Fed Locations: Washington , DC

☆ A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-12 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This is while S&P 500 valuations remain high, putting the market at risk for big declines. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued. That means the S&P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.

Persons: Jon Wolfenbarger, —, Merrill Lynch, St, Louis Fed, Wolfenbarger, September's, it's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, JPMorgan, Conference Board, Global, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, Nvidia Locations: St

☆ These 3 indicators are pointing to a healthy labor market similar to the pre-pandemic boom, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are worried that labor market weakness could thwart a soft landing. AdvertisementAs inflation creeps downward, investors are increasingly turning their attention to the labor market to look for clues of a soft landing. Labor market fundamentals remain strong, according to Joseph Briggs, co-lead of Goldman Sachs' global economics team and a former Federal Reserve senior economist. "If we take a broad assessment across a number of different labor market indicators, they are still roughly where they were from 2017 to 2019, and that was a pretty healthy labor market," Briggs said. AdvertisementIn Briggs' view, the following three indicators point to a normalizing late-cycle labor market, and in turn, a strong economy.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Joseph Briggs doesn't, Briggs, —, shouldn't, Joseph Briggs, We're Organizations: Service, Labor, Federal Reserve, Real

☆ Warren Buffett's decision to sell stocks and raise record cash before sell-off sends wake-up call
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The selling activity picked up significantly last quarter though with Berkshire offloading more than $75 billion in stocks in the period and raising the conglomerate's cash pile to a record $277 billion. Many Buffett followers view the accelerated sale of his top holdings as a pessimistic call on markets and the economy. Buffett was selling stocks last quarter when the S & P 500 rose to an all-time high in anticipation that the U.S. would skirt a recession while squashing inflation. When Buffett trimmed the Apple stake by 13% in the first quarter, he hinted at the Berkshire annual meeting in May that it was for tax reasons. But the magnitude of this selling last quarter suggests it could be more than just a tax-saving strategy.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, James Shanahan, Edward Jones, Barbara Goodstein, You've, Shanahan, Ted Weschler, Todd Combs, Tim Cook's, It's, Warren, Jim Reid, Deutsche Organizations: Apple, Berkshire, America, Oracle, Dow Jones, Nikkei, U.S Locations: Berkshire, Omaha, U.S

☆ NYT's Peter Goodman: Pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, and they're still there
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNYT's Peter Goodman: Pandemic exposed supply chain vulnerabilities, and they're still therePeter Goodman, New York Times global economics correspondent, joins 'Squwak Box' to discuss the supply chain woes of the pandemic and how to avoid them in the future, the answer to the vulnerabilities in the supply chain, and much more.

Persons: Peter Goodman, they're Organizations: New York Times

☆ MIT Professor Eric So on meme-stock mania
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMIT Professor Eric So on meme-stock maniaEric So, professor of Global Economics at MIT, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the resurgence of meme stocks craze, how retail investors should approach it, and more.

Persons: Eric So Organizations: MIT, Global Economics

☆ Why AI might make it harder to pull off a 4-day workweek
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Tim Paradis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

He also expects more go-getters will feel pressed to do the same as AI bores deeper into the workplace. Of course, if people need to oversee AI bots at all hours, workers could take on babysitting duty at different times of the day. But as he sees how AI will change how humans work, "people are going to get more and more tired — and busier," Gill said. Looking for a payoffNot everyone thinks AI will quash dreams of a four-day workweek. Whelehan said that, ultimately, management will decide whether AI will lead to job losses or enable a four-day workweek.

Persons: —, Binny Gill, Gill, Steve Cohen, Emily Rose McRae, McRae, Simon Johnson, Johnson, Alexey Korotich, Korotich, Dale Whelehan, Whelehan, Kognitos Organizations: Service, Business, New York Mets, Gartner, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, International Monetary Fund

☆ The US dollar is strengthening. Here’s what’s driving the rally and what it means for Americans
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-21 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

What does the dollar rally mean internationally? The US Commerce Department releases March figures on new orders for durable goods. The US Commerce Department releases its first estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 20. The US Commerce Department releases March figures on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Persons: it’s, Michelle Bowman, Bell, Claudio Irigoyen, It’s, Samantha Delouya, ”, eMarketer, Ross Benes, Wall, Read, Lockheed Martin, Raymond James, Northrop Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Netflix, Verizon, Truist, Albertsons, The Chicago Fed, Visa, Tesla, Pepsico, Novartis, UPS, Lockheed, Banco Santander, Spotify, General Motors, Halliburton, Global, US Commerce Department, Meta, IBM, Boeing, Chipotle, Hilton, Ford, Hasbro, Whirlpool, Wyndham, Microsoft, Mobile, Caterpillar, Comcast, Intel, P Global, Honeywell, Gilead, Northrop Grumman, Valero, Capital, Nasdaq, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Citizens Financial, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Bank of Japan, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, HCA Healthcare, Colgate, Palmolive, Phillips, Charter Communications, University of Michigan Locations: Europe, Japan, China, Roku

☆ Direct Iran-Israel war could spike oil by $30 to $40, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A direct war between Israel and Iran could lead to substantially higher oil prices through 2025, according to Bank of America. This scenario assumes that Iran's crude oil production falls by up to 1.5 million barrels per day due to the war. Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading sessions in the wake of Iran's weekend missile and drone assault against Israel. The bank has penciled in the first Fed interest rate cut in December, and oil prices would come down by then though remain elevated. "Should supply losses build up regionally, it may also prove difficult to access spare production capacity, so oil prices would likely settle above $150/bbl for several months," the bank's analysts forecast.

Persons: Brent, Israel, Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Israel, Bank, Federal, bbl, Israeli Locations: Israel, Iran, OPEC, U.S

☆ Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world. Should we be worried?
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThe so-called "Magnificent 7" now wields greater financial might than almost every other major country in the world, according to new Deutsche Bank research. The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalizations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech behemoths — Apple , Amazon , Alphabet , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla — outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country, the bank said in a research note Tuesday. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined. Deutsche Bank analysts highlighted that the Magnificent 7's combined market cap alone would make it the second-largest country stock exchange in the world, double that of Japan in fourth. However, this level of concentration has led some analysts to voice concerns over related risks in the U.S. and global stock market.

Persons: Michael M, Jim Reid, Deutsche, Reid, Tesla, Evelyn Partners, Daniel Casali, Evelyn, Casali Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Deutsche Bank, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Evelyn Partners Locations: New York City, China, Japan, France, Saudi Arabia, U.S

☆ Treasury yields pull back as big economic data releases come into view
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was down by around 3.7 basis points at 4.1050% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond slipped 3.7 basis points to 4.3418%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday morning as investors brace themselves for two key pieces of economic data in the second half of the week. Two significant pieces of economic data are on the slate this week: a preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth figure is due on Thursday, followed by the Commerce Department's closely watched personal consumption expenditures price index for December on Friday. Both data points will inform the Federal Reserve as it maps out when and by how much to begin cutting interest rates, which will be a key factor in determining the path of markets and the economy this year. Auctions will be held for $60 billion of 17-week Treasury bills, $61 billion of 5-year notes and $28 billion of 2-year FRNs (floating-rate notes).

Persons: Jim Reid, Bullard, Reid, that's Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Commerce, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank's, Global, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, St Louis Fed, PMI

☆ Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don't care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.

Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red

☆ Why the U.S. may extend its run as the world's leading economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S., China and India may take turns leading the global economy this century, according to an analysis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The CEBR forecast suggests China could potentially take the top spot as the world's largest economy by gross domestic product as early as 2037. "The ranking of which is the largest economy in the world — that doesn't take into account things like living standards. Around the world, policymakers are spending large sums of public funds to prepare for social and environmental challenges that may be ahead. Watch the video above to learn more about the race to be the world's largest economy.

Persons: Nina Skero, Mariana Mazzucato, we're, China that's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Yasheng Huang, Rajiv Biswas Organizations: U.S, Centre for Economics, Business Research, University College London, Washington, MIT Sloan School of Management, P Global Market Intelligence, CNBC Locations: China, India, U.S, Japan, South Korea, Asia, Pacific

☆ Gold soars past $2,100 to new record — and analysts don't expect it to stop there
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices notched a new record on Monday for a second day in a row — with spot prices touching $2,100 as the global rush for bullion appears set to continue. Gold prices are on course to hit fresh highs next year and could remain above $2,000 levels, analysts said, citing geopolitical uncertainty, a likely weaker U.S. dollar and possible interest rate cuts. Gold tends to perform well during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty due to its status as a reliable store of value. He estimated that gold prices could reach up to $2,200 by the end of 2024. "There is simply less leverage this time around vs 2011 in gold ... taking prices through $2,100 and putting $2,200/oz in view," said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at precious metals firm MKS PAMP.

Persons: Heng Koon, Nicky Shiels Organizations: Markets, Global Economics, Markets Research, CNBC Locations: Israel

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. But the extent of the political and economic jitters merely mirrors other signs of a long-term China exit well beyond portfolio flows. Earlier this month, China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in "bricks and mortar" foreign direct investment (FDI). What's more, a multi-year aversion to China investments then risks colliding with deteriorating long-term economic growth dynamics - heightened by rising youth unemployment and dire demographics. Despite some recent upgrades of China growth forecasts, yet another business survey this week raised red flags.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo, Nicholas Lardy, Xi, Lardy, What's, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Official Monetary, Financial, Reuters, . Commerce, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, OMFIF, Europe, North America, India, Brazil, Beijing, U.S, Washington, San Francisco

☆ Market vulnerabilities and a possible U.S. recession: Strategists give their cautious predictions for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market is now largely pricing a peak at the current Fed funds target range of 5.25-5.5%, with interest rate cuts to come next year. watch now"At the outer edges of the economy there is obvious stress that is likely to spread in 2024 with rates at these levels. So it's easy to see how bad levered investments could have been made that would be vulnerable to this higher rate regime." Recession risk 'delayed rather than diminished' In a roundtable event on Tuesday, JPMorgan Asset Management strategists echoed this note of caution, claiming that the risk of a U.S. recession was "delayed rather than diminished" as the impact of higher rates feeds through into the economy. "I think the the key conclusion here is that interest rates do still bite, it's just taking longer this time around," she said.

Persons: Victor J, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, GSAM, Karen Ward, it's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Global Economics, Research, Silicon Valley Bank, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, JPMorgan, Management Locations: New York, Washington, U.S, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland

☆ Asia stocks swing lower, gold climbs as oil slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

One mover was gold, which climbed to $2,009.87 an ounce and briefly hit a six-month top of $2,017.82. S&P 500 futures eased 0.2% and Nasdaq futures lost 0.4%. "Indeed, this message of patience is likely to be notable in upcoming DM policy communications in response to recent financial market developments." Markets priced in 80 basis points of U.S. easing next year, and around 82 basis points for the ECB. Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, CBA, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia, OPEC

☆ Asia stocks turn lower, gold jumps as oil slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures eased 0.2%, and Nasdaq futures lost 0.4%. That in turn has been a drag on the dollar which has lost 3% on a basket of major counterparts this month . Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December. "Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ faces a challenge in convincing markets that it can help keep oil markets tight in 2024," wrote commodity analysts at CBA in a note. "OPEC+ will have to show significant supply discipline, or at least jawbone such ability, to alleviate market worries of a deep surplus in oil markets next year."

Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, Australian, CBA, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia, OPEC

☆ Asia stocks steady ahead of inflation tests, OPEC+ meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The approach of month end could also cause some caution given the hefty gains investors are sitting on. "Indeed, this message of patience is likely to be notable in upcoming DM policy communications in response to recent financial market developments." Markets priced in almost 90 basis points of U.S. easing next year, and around 83 basis points for the ECB. The oil market faces a tense few days ahead of a meeting of OPEC+ on Nov. 30, a meting that had originally been slated for Sunday but was postponed as producers struggled to find a unanimous position. Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jerome Powell, Bruce Kasman, Christine Lagarde, Brent, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, EU, ECB, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia

☆ Deutsche Bank sees S&P 500 gaining more than 11% and reaching a record next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Deutsche Bank expects the S & P 500 could climb more than 11% to a record next year — and said its base case seems "conservative." The investment bank set its 2024 year-end S & P 500 target at 5,100, or more than 11% above where the broader index closed Friday at 4,559.34. In its bull case, Deutsche Bank expects the S & P 500 could even climb to 5,500, or more than 20% above where the benchmark closed last. "We note that the S & P 500 has been in a clear trend up channel since the [Great Financial Crisis]. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin expects the S & P 500 will chop around and finally end next year at 4,700 .

Persons: —, Jim Reid, Reid, America's Savita Subramanian, Lori Calvasina, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Bank, America's Locations: London, financials

☆ US homebuyers are waiting for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Here's when 10 experts say it's going to happen.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage rates could decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year. Here are 10 projections from experts on when the Fed's first rate cut will come. While these factors serve as deterrents for prospective buyers, interest rates may not stay this high forever. AdvertisementWhile declining interest rates wouldn't directly cause mortgage rates to fall, the two tend to move in the same direction. FebruaryIn August, Preston Caldwell, a Morningstar senior US economist, wrote in a note that he expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in February.

Persons: —, Preston Caldwell, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, David Einhorn, Diane Swonk, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, we'll, Simona Mocuta, Jeff Morton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Morningstar, UBS, KPMG, Citi, Reuters, State Street Global Advisors, DWS Locations: North America's

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S

Rather, asset managers increasingly position these as now a feature of global investing choices rather than all-consuming shocks per se. Likely for the same reason, geopolitical risk monitors are at their highest in over 18 months too. Ebbing demand from a Chinese economy hobbled by property busts and a foreign investment withdrawal due to U.S. investment curbs also hurts. The VIX (.VIX) index of U.S. stock volatility is currently five points below its historic average 19 - and even July VIX futures hover on that mean. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for ReutersReporting by Mike Dolan Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: there's, Washington's, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, What's, Melissa Brown, Axioma, Andrew McCaffery, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Barclays, Global CIO, Fidelity, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Israel, United States, India, Taiwan, Mexico, Britain, Gaza, Russia, China, Wall

A recently edgy bond market gobbled all that up. Funds' bonds allocation in November soared 18 points over the month to leave them net 19% overweight - almost 3 standard deviations above long-term averages. Asset managers' overweight bond positions - or at least those in government bonds and U.S. Treasuries - tends to be mirrored by big short positions in Treasury futures among speculative hedge funds. CFTC numbers show the scale of that speculative 'Big Short' on the flipside of the mounting 'Big Long' built by regular asset managers. Lamont points out that U.S. Treasury yields and investment grade corporate debt yields would have to rise about another 100bps for the capital losses to wipe out current yields.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lazard, Ronald Temple, Lombard Odier's Florian Ielpo, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Jason Pride, Mike Dolan, Susan Fenton Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of America's, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, what's

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