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Many people subsequently turned to remote work, and the workforce recovered but only to be plunged into three years of an incredibly tight labor market. Today, the unemployment rate is at 3.9% following an increase in October from the prior’s month’s 3.8% level, and by most measures the labor market is considered very strong. “It does seem like the labor market is getting a little more balanced,” says Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. The overwhelmingly takeaway is that the labor market has defied most predictions and shown a level of resiliency and adaptability that has surprised many observers. This was the “excess retirements” who were causing the labor market to be exceptionally tight.

Persons: Gene Tannuzzo, “, ”, Bill Armstrong, “ We've, Guy Berger, James Neave, ” Neave, –, Berger, ’ Berger, Sarah House, it’s, women’s Organizations: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Safeguard Global, Technology, LinkedIn, Walmart, General Motors, Google, Wells, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, & $ Locations: Minnesota

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

So-called bond vigilantes - investors who punish profligate governments by selling their bonds, driving yields higher - were a feature of markets in the 1990s, when concerns over U.S. federal spending pushed Treasury yields to 8%. Strategist Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, has also chimed in. “The bond vigilantes have been challenging (Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis,” he said in a Financial Times opinion piece on Wednesday. Famed bond investor Bill Gross, who co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co., said bond vigilantes will have a muted effect now given the Fed's larger role in markets. Bond investors "are rather powerless pawns in this interest rate chess game," he told Reuters by email.

Persons: Fitch, doesn't, Gene Tannuzzo, Jake Remley, Ed Yardeni, Janet, ”, Bill Gross, Greg Whiteley, Robert Tipp, David Randall, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Bond, Columbia, Treasury, Apollo, Treasury Department, Government, Social, Research, Management, “, Pacific Investment Management Co, Thomson Locations: Wall, Boston

☆ The U.S. reached a deal on the debt ceiling. Here’s what might be next for investors in Treasurys
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The worst of the debt ceiling crisis is over now that lawmakers have passed a bill and sent it to President Joe Biden for signing, but investors are about to see an influx of Treasury securities enter the market. A large issuance of new Treasurys could push down prices of holdings in investors' portfolios. While large investors scoop up the new T-bills, the extent to which individual investors capture the benefit will also depend on the Federal Reserve's policy stance. "As you get past the debt ceiling, getting paid on your cash is still a concern, and doing it with T-bills where you still get a 5% yield is attractive," Tannuzzo said. "Interest rates have been so low, and to see 4%, 5% on T-bills – you can make money on money, and that's wonderful," Shagawat said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, James Shagawat, Greg McBride, Shagawat, Treasurys, he's, Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Columbia, Federal, Federal Reserve, AdvicePeriod

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