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☆ Analysts react to Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed policymakers at the median still see the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the 5.50%-5.75% range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the current range. I do think that they'll remain data dependent and you'll probably hear that from Powell at the 2:30 press conference and going forward as well. So yes, they're talking about higher rates for longer, but it's really the economy that matters. This is because when the Fed announces an interest rate increase, credit card interest rates typically follow shortly thereafter, which may result in larger minimum monthly payments for credit card holders. While the decision not to raise interest rates this time round mitigates that for now, more interest rate increases may be on the horizon.

Persons: Jerome Powell, GARRETT MELSON, presser, GINA BOLVIN, Powell, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, KARL SCHAMOTTA, GENNADIY GOLDBERG, it's, TOM MARTIN, MICHELE RANERI Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, PPI, OF, TOM, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: BOSTON, Powell, WISCONSIN, TORONTO, U.S, ATLANTA, CHICAGO

The move brings the BOJ more into line with other major central banks, which have been aggressively hiking rates to reduce inflation. The MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in nearly 50 countries, rose 0.79% to 705.65 points. U.S. Treasury yields weakened after hitting two-week highs for most maturities the previous session, with yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes down at 3.967% while two-year yields fell to 4.8952%. The yen whipsawed in its most volatile trading session in months following the BOJ's move while the dollar fell against a basket of its major peers. The dollar index fell 0.157%, with the euro up 0.51% to $1.1029.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, It's, Garrett Melson, We're, Melson, Brent, Chibuike Oguh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, of, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Commerce, Investment, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, ECB, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, New York

☆ Global shares slip, dollar soars vs yen on BoJ policy expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. The yen weakened 1.19% to 141.77 per dollar, while the dollar index , a measure of the greenback against major trading currencies, rose 0.31%. "None of them are happening with massive severity, but the longer we go on with higher rates, more and more that's going to come through," he said. BOJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing yield control policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. "Markets were building up expectations which now look unlikely to play out," said Guillaume Paillat, a multi-asset manager at Aviva Investors.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BoJ, Dow, Garrett Melson, Mullarkey, Patrick Spencer, Guillaume Paillat, Brent, Herbert Lash, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Conor Humphries, David Holmes, Marguerita Choy, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Nasdaq, Investment, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, SLC Management, Baird, Microsoft, Apple, NYSE, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, London, MSCI's U.S, Europe, China, Sydney

Gold prices slipped as the dollar rebounded to its highest level in more than a week as investors prepare for next week's big central bank policy meetings, including the BoJ, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The yen weakened 1.13% to 141.68 per dollar, while the dollar index , a measure of the greenback against major trading currencies, rose 0.36%. BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing yield control policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call. As Japanese inflation has stayed above the BoJ's target, traders have bet on the central bank ditching its yield curve control program, a move likely to cause the yen to strengthen.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BoJ, Garrett Melson, Patrick Spencer, Spencer, you've, Guillaume Paillat, Brent, Herbert Lash, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Conor Humphries, David Holmes, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Investment, Nasdaq, Baird, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, NYSE, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, Europe, China, London

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Consumer stocks' earnings may offer clues on U.S. economy’s resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Companies in the consumer discretionary spending sector reporting next week include Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) and AutoNation Inc (AN.N). Reuters GraphicsGrowing recession fears over the last year have already prompted many consumer discretionary companies to cut costs to boost margins, which may lead to positive earnings surprises this quarter, Melson said. Part of that expected growth comes from a job market that has remained robust, helping buoy consumer spending, said Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer sentiment inched up in April, but households expected inflation to rise over the next 12 months. Sandy Villere, a portfolio manager at Villere & Co, has winnowed his holdings of consumer discretionary stocks in anticipation of a recession later this year.

NEW YORK, March 17 (Reuters) - Whipsawed U.S. stocks have gained an unexpected ally in recent days - a historic plunge in bond yields. The volatility in fixed income markets has unsettled investors, and falling yields can reflect expectations that the Fed will cut rates because of a hit to growth. The index finished up 1.4% for the week, with strength in technology stocks outweighing sharp declines in bank shares. Tech stocks vs US bond yieldsThe near-term trajectory of yields will likely hinge on next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 trades at 17.5 times forward earnings estimates compared to its historic average P/E of 15.6 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.

Many on Wall Street remain convinced that a widely expected recession is likely to roil markets once again sometime this year. Also encouraging for investors was Powell's repeated references to disinflation - a falling rate of inflation. "I think they do see a path where you can get that soft landing, that Goldilocks-type scenario play out," he said. Banks and asset managers that have reiterated recession calls in recent weeks include BlackRock, Wells Fargo and Neuberger Berman. "Do people think (rate cuts) will be in response to inflation that has been coming down or something more dramatic, in terms of economic slowdown?

☆ Wall Street Week Ahead: Wall Street hunts for recession plays to weather potential 2023 turbulence
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

JPMorgan, Citi and BlackRock are among those who believe a recession is likely in 2023. Nevertheless, many on Wall Street are increasing allocations to areas of the market that have a reputation for outperforming during uncertain economic times. The S&P 500 Health Care sector is down around 1.7% year-to-date, handily beating the broader index's performance. JPMorgan's analysts forecast a "mild recession" and expect the S&P 500 to test its 2022 lows in the first quarter of next year. Signs of ebbing inflation have fueled hopes that the Fed may tighten monetary policy less than expected, supporting a rebound in the S&P 500 that has buoyed the index from its October low.

☆ Wall Street awaits midterm vote tallies
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Republicans were favored to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, polls and betting markets showed earlier, though it may be hours before all vote tallies are known. read moreCOMMENTS:CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE"The race seems to be closer than expected, especially for the Senate. "That said, if the Republicans take the Senate along with the House that provides a pro-business backdrop for the market." "A Republican win will in generally be positive for equities, but inflationary risk is unlikely to be mitigated nor accelerated." IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, SENIOR ANALYST, SWISSQUOTE BANK"From an investor point of view, a Republican win in both chambers is a good outcome for the stocks.

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