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What exactly President-elect Donald Trump's second term means for the stock market will be the question investors continue to grapple with in the week ahead. Nvidia earnings results will also be on deck as investors deal with stubbornly high interest rates as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged past 44,000 for the first time ever, and the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite similarly posted new records. Sales of Blackwell and Grace Blackwell are expected to start to show up in results next year. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF has surged 11% this month.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jimmy Chang, Jensen Huang, CNBC's, Blackwell, Grace Blackwell, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Kumar, Jensen, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Novavax, Ken Mahoney, Trump, There's, Mahoney, Rockefeller's Chang, Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Rockefeller Global Family, Treasury, Nvidia, Blackwell, Health, Human Services Department, Moderna, Asset Management, Regional Banking ETF, Federal, White, FWDBONDS, Housing, Walmart, Lowe's, Palo Alto Networks, Philadelphia Fed, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Intuit, Deere, PMI, PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services Locations: China, U.S, NAHB, . Kansas, Michigan
CNN —US wholesale inflation picked up more than expected in October, indicating that some price pressures persist at the producer level. Still, one potential favorable sign for inflation-weary consumers: Wholesale food prices dropped 0.2% for the month. FactSet consensus forecasts called for a 0.2% monthly gain and for the annual rate to heat up to 2.3%. Economists projected a 0.2% monthly gain and a 3% annual rate. Thursday’s PPI trajectory mirrored that seen in the latest Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday.
Persons: Price, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James ’, Thomas Simons, Jefferies, ” Simons, ” Oren Klachkin, Donald Trump’s, , Christopher Rupkey, Rupkey Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Federal Reserve, , CPI, Nationwide
So far on Wednesday, the stock market was largely ignoring the morning's inflation report because the main CPI reading was as economists expected. But a look deeper into the report spells trouble for a stock market — and president-elect — that are going to want the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates throughout next year to keep fueling the bull market. However, in recent months, policymakers have focused more on the headline number, saying shelter costs, which have an outsized influence on core CPI, will come down. But core inflation has remained unusually stubborn, suggesting the Fed may have to hold rates higher than investors were previously anticipating. Core CPI showed a third straight monthly increase of 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 3.3%.
Persons: Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, Rupkey, Donald Trump, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Washington , D.C Locations: Washington ,
CNN —US job growth surged in September, blowing past expectations and providing solid reassurance for the ongoing stability of the labor market. Employers added an estimated 254,000 jobs in September, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The outlook for the economy in the months ahead is quite favorable, according to the September jobs report. As job gains dropped off from their once breakneck pace, economists were quick to note that the labor market was merely slowing and not at risk of imminent collapse. “The labor market is strong,” she said.
Persons: , ” Brian Bethune, , Chris Rupkey, , Elise Gould, Gould, Jerome Powell, September’s, it’s, ” Bethune, , , Josh Hirt, ” Hirt, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Employers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Boston College, Service, Federal Reserve, FwdBonds, Economic Policy Institute, Federal, Vanguard, Boeing
The tides are changing on Wall Street thanks to a closely watched market-moving figure: Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve chair on Friday pointed to rate cuts on the horizon during his keynote address at the central bank's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks." The Nasdaq Composite outperformed the major indexes, rallying about 1% due to gains in popular artificial intelligence and semiconductor names. "This keeps a tailwind at the market's back into year-end, making it harder to expect a retest of this month's lows," said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, Russell, Powell, David Russell Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Covid
The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.
Persons: , July’s, , , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American
Stocks sold off Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. The 10-year Treasury yield broke below 4% for the first time since February in a sign that more investors were seeking safe-haven assets. That weak data comes a day after the Fed chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades. “The economic data keep rolling on in the direction of a downturn, if not recession, this morning,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, a financial market research company. The S&P 500 is still up about 14% for the year, coming off its eighth-positive month in the last nine in July.
Persons: Stocks, , Dow, Russell, Jerome Powell, , Chris Rupkey, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Treasury, JPMorgan, Boeing, Meta, Nvidia Locations: U.S
There was a perverse view this year that bad economic news was actually good news for the stock market, as the heat coming off the economy would give the Federal Reserve the greenlight to cut interest rates. This made some sense with inflation for the first time in a while becoming the primary market bogeyman over a slowing economy. Announced layoffs last month were the highest for any July in more than two decades, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported. Investors got what they thought they wanted, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking below 4% for the first time since February. Even tech stocks found themselves in the red as they too, may be hurt more by a slowing economy, than their valuations are boosted by lower rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, Adam Crisafulli, Dow Jones, Yun Li, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management, Investors, Dow Jones, Dow, JPMorgan Chase, Caterpillar, Vital Knowledge Locations: U.S
CNN —“Good news is bad news” has been a common refrain for a while now. When economic reports are released that are solid, they have all too often been clouded with concerns that good news for the economy actually means a longer wait before the Federal Reserve rolls out rate cuts. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index cooled more than expected in May, with prices holding flat on the month for the first time since July 2022. The markets don’t seem to be buying the one-cut plan, especially after the Producer Price Index on Thursday showed that wholesale prices fell from April to May and the BLS’ Import and Export Price Index showed that US imports prices fell 0.4% in May after rising 0.9% in April. And more good news is likely on the way this next week and later this month, Brusuelas said.
Persons: CNN —, , Joe Brusuelas, , ” Brusuelas, spoilsport, Price, ” Chris Rupkey, , ” Rupkey, Brusuelas Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, RSM US, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent, Consumer, Index, BLS, Price, FwdBonds, CPI, PPI
Economists polled by FactSet had anticipated a 0.1% rise in monthly wholesale inflation. Excluding food and energy prices, so-called “core” producer inflation rose 2.3% on an annual basis, the same level seen in April. PPI captures average price shifts before they reach consumers and serves as a potential bellwether for retail-level inflation in the months ahead. The new inflation data follows May’s Consumer Price Index released Wednesday, which showed that the pace of price increase consumers see across goods and services cooled to 3.3% from 3.4% in April. But others expressed concerns that the fall in producer prices may actually represent a negative consequence.
Persons: FactSet, Price, Jerome Powell, he’d, ” Clark Bellin, , Christopher Rupkey, ” Rupkey Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Fed, FwdBonds Locations: New York
US economy added a whopping 272,000 jobs in May
  + stars: | 2024-06-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
At a time when Americans and the Federal Reserve are clamoring for clear-cut data about the state and trajectory of the economy, Friday’s jobs report was much more opaque than everyone had hoped. Employment fell in the household survey, while unemployment increased to just shy of 6.5 million and pushing the unemployment rate to the threshold of 4%. Service-providing industries accounted for the bulk of the month’s job gains, with health care and social assistance continuing to lead the way, with 83,500 jobs added. “Don’t get overly spooked by the rise in the unemployment rate,” Bunker wrote. “The labor market is still gliding toward a soft landing.”
Persons: ” Dean Baker, , I’ve, Diane Swonk, , Wall, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, CEPR’s Baker, ” Baker, ” Thomas Simons, Jeffries, Nick Bunker, Bunker, “ Don’t, ” Bunker Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Center for Economic, Policy Research, of Labor Statistics, KPMG, That’s, Index, Traders, BLS, Service, North America
Weekly jobless claims jump to 231,000, the highest since August
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Initial filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level since late August 2023 in a potential sign that an otherwise robust labor market is changing. Also, job openings have been declining amid expectations that the labor market is likely to slow through the year. The four-week moving average of claims, which helps smooth out weekly volatility in numbers, increased to 215,000, up 4,750 from the previous week. "One week does not a trend make, but we can no longer be sure that calm seas lie ahead for the US economy if today's weekly jobless claims are any indication." Markets reacted little to the jobless claims release, with stock market futures slightly negative and Treasury yields mixed.
Persons: Dow Jones, Christopher Rupkey, Robert Frick Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union Locations: New York
Weekly jobless claims rise to highest level since August
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Lucy Bayly | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, in another sign that the white-hot labor market is starting to cool off. Thursday’s data also showed that the number of continuing claims, or applications from people who have filed for unemployment for at least one week, was 1.78 million. That’s an increase of 17,000 from the prior week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% last month, it’s the 27th consecutive month that the jobless rate has held under 4%, matching a streak last seen in the late 1960s. The Federal Reserve has been battling inflation by raising its key lending rate in the hopes of slowing the economy.
Persons: , Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, ” Ian Shepherdson, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Federal Reserve, Pantheon Economics Locations: New York, Fwdbonds
Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.
Persons: , Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, , ” Robert Frick, , ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas
The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. The upward revision to growth last quarter reflected upgrades to business investment on structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth. Profits rose at a 0.8% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Gregory Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, New York, EY, Charlotte , North Carolina
The growth pace, which was the quickest in nearly two years, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth, instead of the 1.32 percentage points estimated last month. Higher wages contributed to the economy growing at a 1.5% rate last quarter, the fastest in a year, when measured from the income side. That suggested trade could be a drag on GDP growth this quarter after being a neutral factor in the April-June period.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Conrad DeQuadros, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Analysis, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Brean, BEA, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere could be a possible recession, says economist Christopher RupkeyGregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the recent labor market data, whether a recession is looming, and more.
Persons: Christopher Rupkey Gregory Daco, Christopher Rupkey, Steve Liesman Locations: EY
The Producer Price Index, which measures the average price changes that businesses pay to suppliers, fell 0.5% on a monthly basis. It’s the largest monthly drop since April 2020, when the rapidly spreading Covid-19 virus caused a sharp economic contraction. When stripping out the volatile food and energy categories, core PPI was unchanged for the month, bringing the yearly increase to 2.4%. On Tuesday, the October Consumer Price Index showed that US consumer prices were unchanged for the month, contributing to a slowdown in the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. “Fed officials are getting to keep their cake and eat it too, so far with economic growth and inflation cooling.
Persons: Price, , Chris Rupkey, Andrew Butters, “ There’s, ” Butters, we’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, FwdBonds, “ Fed, CPI, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Fed, CNN Locations: Minneapolis
US consumer prices unchanged; core inflation slowing
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Grocery food inflation increased 0.3%, driven by gains in the prices of meat, fish and eggs. Reuters GraphicsGOODS DEFLATIONExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.2% amid higher costs for rental housing. Health insurance costs rebounded as the BLS implemented changes to the methodology it uses to calculate health insurance prices, effective with October's CPI release. The old method was based on an annual calculation using aggregated health insurance premium and benefit data. There were concerns about the volatility in the annual data and the lag involved in incorporating the health insurance financial data.
Persons: Bing Guan, Christopher Rupkey, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tuesday, Treasury, Reuters, Fed, CPI, Thomson Locations: SoHo, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON
Market-churning economic news is lacking this week, but that doesn’t mean Wall Street and the economy can rest easy. The political news heats up, with Donald Trump set to testify in his civil fraud trial in New York. And elections take place across the country on Tuesday that could show where the country stands politically one year out from the 2024 election. Meanwhile, a softer-than-expected jobs report on Friday had some analysts saying the economy was headed for a downturn. “The unemployment rate rose just a tenth to 3.9% in October versus September which the BLS called little changed,” he said.
Persons: Donald Trump, State Anthony Blinken, Bond, , Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, ” Chris Rupkey, Powell, ” Powell, Organizations: GOP, Hamas, State, West Bank, Federal Reserve, ZipRecruiter, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, BCA Research Locations: New York, Miami, Israel, Iraq, Turkey, Washington
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed layoffs dropping to a nine-month low. There were 1.50 job openings for every unemployed person in September, slightly up from 1.49 in August and way above the pre-pandemic ratio of 1.2. Data for August was revised lower to show 9.497 million job openings instead of the previously reported 9.610 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.250 million job openings in September. Job openings dropped 43,000 in federal government and there were 41,000 open positions in the information industry.
Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Conrad DeQuadros, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Treasury, Reuters, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, United Auto Workers, UAW, Detroit's Big, Ford Motor, General Motors, Chrysler, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York
US weekly jobless claims hit nine-month low
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Though the labor market is gradually cooling, conditions remain tight, with claims at the very low end of their range of 194,000 to 265,000 for this year. The Fed's Beige Book report on Wednesday said "labor market tightness continued to ease across the nation" in early October and implied cooling wage pressure. The labor market is driving consumer spending and the overall economy, ultimately keeping inflation elevated. The claims report covered the week during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of October's employment report. The so-called continuing claims increased 29,000 to a still-low 1.734 million during the week ending Oct. 7, the claims report showed.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Unadjusted, Jerome Powell's, Jay Hawkins, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, U.S, Economic, of New, National Association of Realtors, realtors, BMO Capital Markets, Philadelphia Fed, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Texas , New York , New Jersey, Georgia, California, Tennessee, Michigan, of New York, Toronto, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware
In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August. The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, homebuilding, homebuilders, Conrad DeQuadros, Christopher Rupkey, Colin Johanson, Lucia Mutikani, Dan Burns, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Brean, Commerce Department, Data, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, Realtors, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, homebuilding, New York, Midwest, West, Northeast, U.S
Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, more than twice what economists had expected, and close to a revised 0.8% bump in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging. But the robust sales report also means that the Fed officials could leave the door open for additional rate hikes. The retail sales report came as businesses across the U.S. economy ramped up hiring in September, defying surging interest rates, and the ongoing threat of a government shutdown. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from August to September, below the previous month’s 0.6% pace.
Persons: wasn’t, , Christopher S, Rupkey, , Tim Quinlan, Christopher Rugaber, , Anne Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed, FWDBONDS, “ Fed, Analysts, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, , Labor Department Locations: Israel, Wells Fargo, U.S, Washington
REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Retail sales increase 0.7% in SeptemberCore retail sales rise 0.6%; August sales revised upManufacturing production increases 0.4%WASHINGTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in September as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more at restaurants and bars, cementing expectations that economic growth accelerated sharply in the third quarter. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month. Economists defended their forecast for tepid retail sales growth, which they said was based on softening consumer confidence. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.6% in September. Data for August was revised up to show these so-called core retail sales gaining 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously reported.
Persons: Eduardo Munoz, Goldman Sachs, Christopher Rupkey, James Knightley, Jay Hawkins, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, Commerce Department's, ING, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Financial, Amazon, Commerce Department, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Toronto
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