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☆ The S&P 500 could see another big year in 2025, if history is any guide
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-22 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should brace themselves for another big move next year, according to an analysis of historical data from Bank of America. The S & P 500 is up 24.7% in 2024 and on track for its second straight year with a gain of more than 20%. After rising 31% and 38% in 1927 and 1928, respectively, the S & P 500 lost 12% in 1929 and another 28% in 1930, Hartnett said. The last time the S & P 500 posted back-to-back 20% annual gains was in the 1990s, soaring 34% in 1995 and 20% in 1996. Hartnett noted that the "secret sauce" for the S & P 500 to avoid some of the sharp reversals seen before is a decline in Treasury yields.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, wasn't, Hartnett, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Bank of America Locations: U.S

☆ Nvidia reversal moves whole stock market higher, proving again its unprecedented influence
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

There's no denying how important Nvidia is to the stock market. Stock futures followed Nvidia's lead, riding slight losses at the time. In that time, stock futures recovered their earlier losses and were last up around 0.5%. Many firms lifted their price targets on the chipmaker, including Citi, Wells Fargo and Bernstein . Elsewhere Thursday morning on Wall Street, Wells Fargo initiated GE Vernova as overweight, citing growing power demand from artificial intelligence.

Persons: Nvidia's, Wells Fargo, Bernstein Organizations: Nvidia, Barclays, Bank of America, Citi, GE Vernova Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Goldman thinks Nvidia is going to beat and so does the options market
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Nvidia is set to report fiscal third-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday. If the options market is any guide, the results could spark a big move higher, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst John Marshall said options are implying an 8.3% move in either direction for Nvidia. Marshall said the Wall Street bank expects Nvidia to beat third-quarter expectations driven by strong double-digit data center revenue growth. Elsewhere this morning on Wall Street , Pivotal Research hiked its price target on Netflix to $1,100 — the highest on Wall Street.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Goldman, Marshall, Tyson, Paul, Jeffrey Wlodarczak Organizations: Nvidia, LSEG, Blackwell, Netflix

☆ Four trades working this morning amid rising geopolitical tensions
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Geopolitics are raining on the stock market's parade, but other trades are working. U.S. stock futures fell Tuesday as tensions between Ukraine and Russia intensified. S & P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures shed 1.1% each. That said, four trades are holding up against this backdrop: Gold futures rallied nearly 1% to around $2,640 per ounce. If geopolitical pressure continues to rise, the four trades above could outperform as 2024 wraps up.

Persons: Vladmir Putin, —, DAX, Treasurys, Vladimir Putin's, Peter Boockvar, Cory Kasimov, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kasimov Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Global, France's CAC, Bleakley Financial, ISI, Department of Health, Human Services Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Russian, U.S, Europe

☆ Morgan Stanley sees S&P 500 climbing another 11% — to 6,500 — next year
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Strategist Michael Wilson sees the S & P 500 reaching 6,500 in 2025. The sector is already up 6.8% since the Nov. 5 election, outperforming the other 10 S & P 500 sectors. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield is up more than 80 basis points (0.8 percentage point) since the Fed began cutting rates. While Wilson's base case sees the S & P 500 rising to 6,500, his most optmistic bullish scenario takes the benchmark all the way to 7,400 — 26% above Friday's close. However, his initial 2024 S & P 500 target proved too conservative at 4,500.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Wilson, Donald Trump, Baird Organizations: Fed Locations: Washington, Friday's

☆ One of the big postelection gainers could soon stall out, Fundstrat warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. dollar could soon see a sharp reversal from its postelection gains, according to Fundstrat. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency's performance against six rival currencies, including the euro and the yen, is up more than 3% since President-elect Donald Trump secured a second term. That move comes as investors assess the potential macroeconomic policies likely coming in a second Trump administration, particularly on tariffs and trade. .DXY YTD mountain Dollar index in 2024 But Mark Newton, technical strategist at Fundstrat, thinks the greenback "stalls out and reverses in the weeks ahead." Bearish seasonal trends: the dollar has "historically reversed sharp rallies into November, and December stands out as the most bearish month of the year" for the dollar index, the strategist said.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Mark Newton, Newton, Piper Sandler, Campbell Organizations: U.S, Trump Locations: China

☆ Investors are pumping money into the Trump trade. Here's how it did last time
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-13 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street has been pumping money into the Trump trade, but investors should be wary before committing capital based on campaign promises, if history is any indication. From Election Day 2016 through year-end, the asset class outperformed the S & P 500 by 8% on a relative basis. In fact, from Election Day 2016 through Election Day 2020, smallcaps tumbled more than 22%. Expand the timeline to one year out from Election Day, and the ETF underperformed the broader index by 11%. Energy Energy stocks are expected to get a huge boost from Trump, who made energy a focus of his presidential campaign , and promised to "drill, baby, drill."

Persons: Trump, Donald Trump's, elect's, Russell, Biden, Wells, Austin Pickle, —, smallcaps, that's, Fred Imbert Organizations: Bank, Regional Banking, Wells, Investment Institute, Trump, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Dow Jones, . Energy Energy, Energy Locations: Wells Fargo, that's year's

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Better to stay prudent than bask in the postelection afterglow
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Separately, the estate of crypto exchange FTX sued Binance and its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, over a "fraudulent" share deal. Some think the rally is getting ahead of itself, writes CNBC Pro's Fred Imbert. A Wall Street analyst pointed out that, according to history, one ostensibly bullish sign actually portends retreats in the near term.

Persons: FTX, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Donald Trump, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, NatWest, Metrics, Trust, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Trump, U.S

☆ Investors go long stocks by the most in 11 years following Trump’s victory, BofA fund survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America's global fund manager survey showed the percentage of portfolio managers who are overweight U.S. stocks soared to 29% — its highest level since August 2013 — from 10% before the U.S. presidential election. Small caps, which stand to benefit greatly from less regulation, reduced taxes and faster economic growth, have outperformed large caps since the election. .SPX DJIA,.IXIC,IWM YTD mountain SPX, Nasdaq, Dow and IWM year to date BofA's chief investment startegist Michael Hartnett noted this trend is likely to continue. "Post-election results show net 35% [of fund managers surveyed] expect small caps to outperform large caps, which would have been the most since Feb'21," he said. This would make it next to impossible for the Federal Reserve to justify lowering interest rates, which could hurt equities — especially small caps.

Persons: —, Stocks, Donald Trump, Russell, SPX DJIA, startegist Michael Hartnett Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Atlantic, Nvidia Locations: Nasdaq

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Spotify Technology, Cava, Rivian Automotive and more
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Skyworks reported adjusted earnings of $1.55 per share, while analysts polled by LSEG had forecast $1.52 per share. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of 22 cents per share on revenue of $844 million. Rocket Lab forecasted fourth-quarter revenue of $125 million to $135 million, besting the Street's estimate for $122 million, per LSEG. Flutter reported third quarter adjusted earnings of 43 cents per share on revenue of $3.25 billion. That topped the Street's estimates for 10 cents per share in earnings and revenue of $3.07 billion.

Persons: Skyworks, LSEG, Cava, Maplebear —, Fred Imbert, Darla Mercado Organizations: Spotify Technology, Spotify, Occidental Petroleum —, Occidental Petroleum, Volkswagen Group, Rocket

☆ Wall Street growing worried the stock market's Trump rally is getting ahead of itself
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-11 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 surged 4.7% last week, its biggest weekly gain since November 2023. Now, some on Wall Street are worried the rally may soon cool off, at least in the near term. He noted that 27% of S & P 500 companies hit 52-week highs on Wednesday when stocks made an explosive move the day after the election. The S & P 500 closed Friday's session at 5,995.54 after briefly trading above 6,000 for the first time. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Piper Sandler named Nvidia a top pick, calling for a gain of nearly 20%.

Persons: Donald Trump, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Scott Chronert, Piper Sandler Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Citigroup, Nvidia

☆ Earnings playbook: Disney and this home improvement giant are slated to report as the season winds down
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-10 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Tuesday Home Depot is set to report earnings in the premarket. What history shows: Data from Bespoke Investment Group shows Home Depot has beaten earnings expectations for 17 straight quarters. What history shows: Live Nation shares have risen after the last four earnings releases, per Bespoke. What history shows: Disney has not done well following the last two releases, losing 4.5% and 9.5%, respectively. Applied Materials is set to report earnings after the open.

Persons: LSEG, Michael Lasser, Morgan Stanley, Walt Disney, Michael Morris Organizations: Depot, Disney, CNBC, UBS, Home, Investment Group, Consumer, VanEck Semiconductor

☆ Don't expect Treasury yields to come down significantly anytime soon, says Ned Davis Research
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Treasury yields have ripped higher of late, even as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has soared nearly 70 basis points to 4.3% since mid-September, when the Fed cut rates by a half-point. Despite the Fed's latest action, the incoming Trump administration is likely to keep yields elevated, according to Ned Davis Research. Dimitrova noted that rising debt-to-GDP ratio has been closely linked with higher bond yields. The question for investors now is: How long until higher yields start putting pressure on equities?

Persons: Trump, Ned Davis, Veneta, Dimitrova, Goldman Sachs, BNTX Organizations: Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research

☆ The year-end stock rally has begun, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wednesday's massive rally may be just the start of a huge year-end rally. Goldman Sachs tactical specialist Scott Rubner thinks those gains won't stop anytime soon. "The year-end rally starts today and may be higher than investors were expecting," he said Wednesday. Goldman data shows buybacks are already up 15% in 2024 from the last year, at more than $1.05 trillion. "We know we are fighting the tape here, but believe it makes sense to sell the stock."

Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, ChatGPT, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Rubner, Goldman, Baird Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Goldman, JPMorgan Chase

☆ Why small-cap stocks are making such a big move on a Trump victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Donald Trump's return to the White House sparked a big move higher in small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks were seen as potential winners under a second Trump presidency, as investors expect it would ease regulations on businesses — which tend to weigh more heavily on smaller businesses. Wednesday's gains in small caps were led by private prison stocks Geo Group and CoreCivic , which were up roughly 20% each. Small-cap stocks have trailed their large-cap counterparts this year. Notably, small caps outperformed in the 3mos after both the Trump 2016 and Biden 2020 wins."

Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Jason Goepfert, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, IWM, Wells, Chris Harvey, Robert Krankowski Organizations: Trump, DOJ, FTC, Congress, Wolfe Research, Geo, Biden, UBS, Ferrari Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Regional banks are expected to pop under a Trump administration. The Street loves these dividend payers
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

President-elect Donald Trump is returning to the White House , and shares of regional banks are surging on his Election Day victory. Western Alliance Bancorp turned up on the list, with a dividend yield of 1.8% as of Tuesday's close. BPOP YTD mountain Popular shares in 2024 Provident Financial Services turned up on CNBC Pro's screen. Provident posted a profit of 36 cents per share, versus analysts' call for 47 cents a share, per FactSet. Shares are up more than 21% in 2024, and as of Tuesday's close, it had a dividend yield of 5%.

Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler, Davidson's Gary Tenner, Tenner, Frank Schiraldi, Piper Sandler's Mark Fitzgibbon, Fitzgibbon, —, Fred Imbert Organizations: White, Republicans, Regional Banking, CNBC, Western Alliance Bancorp, Western Alliance, Financial Services, Provident

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Amid focus on elections, don’t neglect market moves
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Eugene Tanner | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. It may be tempting to view market moves as a proxy for the direction that the elections will go. But UBS thinks any outsized market moves caused by election volatility is an opportunity for investors to build up their portfolios. The optimism around the economy and markets is shared by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.

Persons: Honolulu Hale, Eugene Tanner, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Donald Trump, Stocks, Nomura, Marcelli, Ryan Detrick, Detrick, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh, Jesse Pound, Samantha Subin Organizations: AFP, Getty, CNBC, Democratic, Republican Party, UBS, Americas, UBS Global, Carson Group, White Locations: Honolulu, Honolulu , Hawaii, U.S

☆ Trump Media shares gain on Election Day as traders bet potential GOP candidate win will boost business
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump reacts at a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. September 13, 2024. Shares of Trump Media & Technology rose on Election Day Tuesday, with traders betting a second Trump presidency would give the business prospects of the Truth Social operator a boost. Year to date, Trump Media, which is majority-owned by Trump, has nearly doubled. However, it has struggled recently, as Vice President Kamala Harris appeared to gain momentum heading into Election Day. Trump Media shares have seen huge retail trader inflows in the week's leading up to the election and has been the most-discussed stock on Reddit page WallStreetBets, which gained popularity during the GameStop fueled stock meme fad of 2021.

Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Trump, Kamala Harris, Jay Woods, Woods, Harris, Kevin Breuninger, Alex Harring Organizations: Republican, Wall, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Trump, Gamestop, Freedom Capital, CNBC, GameStop, NBC Locations: Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S

☆ The trader guide to the election: Which stocks Wall Street expects to benefit under Trump or Harris
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Generally, a Trump win is seen as positive for financials given a higher likelihood of deregulation for companies in the space. Traditional oil and gas names are also likely to benefit under a second Trump presidency. One is made up of stocks that benefit after a Harris win; the other would outperform under a second Trump presidency. However, a Harris win is expected to keep current regulation measures in place, and possibly introduce new ones. Private equity giants KKR and Blackstone would also benefit under a Trump win.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Paul Gallant, Cowen, Gallant, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Daniel Clifton, Strategas, Andrew Garthwaite, Trump, Garthwaite, TAN, we've, Biden, Wells, Ike Boruchow, Boruchow, —, Russell, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Crypto, isn't, Nic Puckrin, bitcoin, Marcelli, Financials, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Lazard Organizations: Congress, U.S ., Trump, U.S . Trump, GOP, Democratic, CNBC Pro, Wall, Strategas, Enterprise, of America, Ford, UBS, Apple, Enphase Energy, Technologies Enphase, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Cadence Bank, Viking Therapeutics, Bureau, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Lazard, Private, KKR, Blackstone, Evercore Locations: Washington, of America Cleveland, Cleveland, China

☆ Trump Media loses $19.2 million in third quarter, surprise Election Day filing reveals
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign town hall meeting in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 20, 2024. The filing was not telegraphed to investors beforehand and came as a surprise to traders not expecting it on Election Day, the very day the former president and Trump Media majority owner squares off against Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump Media, which trades under the ticker DJT, has seen volatile trading lately. Trump Media also reported about $2.6 million in revenue and a net loss of $363 million for the first nine months of 2024. Trump Media is continuing to "explore additional possibilities for growth."

Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Devin Nunes, CNBC's Kevin Breuninger Organizations: Trump Media, Revenue, Company Locations: Lancaster , Pennsylvania

☆ Watch how bank, energy and retail stocks trade for Trump/Harris election clues
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. presidential election takes place Tuesday as an ultra-tight campaign season ends. Under a Harris victory, Morgan Stanley sees retailers and clean energy stocks outperforming as the threat of higher tariffs lifts. Investors can keep track of these sectors through two ETFs: the SPDR S & P Retail ETF (XRT) and the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) . ETFs tracking financials and the fossil fuel producers include the Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) . XLF XLE YTD mountain XLF and XLE year to date These funds could also see sharp moves as exit polls and election results are reported, if they show one candidate pulling ahead.

Persons: It's, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Morgan Stanley, XRT, TAN, Wolfe, cryptocurrency, XLF, XLE, Bernstein Organizations: U.S, NBC, Wolfe Research, P Retail, Trump, Energy, eBay, EBAY

Bitcoin, an asset tied to a Trump victory given the candidates courtship of the industry, soared to a record $75,000 . Heading into the election, investors and analysts pointed to several stocks and sectors that could benefit from a Trump win. Here's a roundup of some of those: Steel stocks If Trump regains the presidency, JPMorgan expects steel stocks to outperform . Related stocks that could outperform under a Trump victory include Nucor , Cleveland-Cliffs , Kaiser Aluminum and MP Materials , according to Peterson. Supporters of Trump have also used the stock as a way to invest in a Trump victory.

Persons: Donald Trump ., Trump, Kamala Harris, Here's, Bill Peterson, Peterson, UBS's, Goldman Sachs, Strategas, Lazard, Wolfe, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Marion Laboure, bitcoin, Nic Puckrin, David Zerzos, Zerzos, Marcelli, Seth Seifman, Russell, Joe Biden, IWM, —, Halliburton, Trump's, ULTA, Michael Bloom, Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh Organizations: U.S, NBC, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Trump, JPMorgan, Aluminum, Financials Bank of America, of America, UBS's Trump, UBS, Swiss, Citigroup, Citizens, Wolfe Research, GOP, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, ISI, Deutsche Bank, Investors, Jefferies, Military, Strategas, Gas Energy, Evercore ISI, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, Companies Locations: Nucor, Cleveland, U.S, China, U.S . Southern

☆ 3 reasons why Warren Buffett is shunning stocks — including his own
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Warren Buffett isn't hot on stocks right now, and the 94-year-old CEO's latest moves reflect that. The cash hoard has grown as Berkshire pared down stakes in key holdings such as Apple and Bank of America . It's also raked in more than $10 billion from steadily selling Bank of America shares since the summer. Berkshire Class A stock trades at 22.6 time earnings. Lastly, Colas noted that Buffett may have "have identified one or more large acquisitions and is raising capital for those purchases."

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs, It's, Buffett, didn't, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Greg Abel, hasn't, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Berkshire, Nike, Disney, Apple, Bank of America, of America, DataTrek, Oracle, Berkshire Class Locations: Berkshire, Omaha

☆ Earnings playbook: Nearly 100 S&P 500 names are set to report, including three AI plays
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-03 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Artificial intelligence plays Palantir, Qualcomm and Super Micro Computer are among the 96 S & P 500 names on deck. Monday Palantir is set to report earnings after the bell, with a call scheduled for 5 p.m. This quarter: Earnings are expected to have soared more than 20% from the year-earlier period, per LSEG. Tuesday Super Micro Computer is set to report earnings after the close, followed by a call at 5 p.m. Qualcomm is set to report earnings after the close, with a call set for 4:45 p.m.

Persons: PLTR, SMCI, Ernst & Young, TD Cowen, Andrew Charles doesn't, Karen Lynch, David Joyner, Ross Seymore Organizations: Qualcomm, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Investment, LSEG, Micro, Yum Brands, Brands, CVS, Revenue, VanEck Semiconductor, Deutsche Bank

☆ Wall Street kicks off historically strong month after wild October
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 fell 1% in October, snapping a five-month advance. Now, Wall Street is coming into what has historically proven a strong month for stocks — which could push stocks to new heights. A CNBC analysis of FactSet data showed November has been the second-strongest month for the S & P 500 going back 10 years. Going back 20 years, the S & P 500 averages a 2.2% increase in November. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, analysts reacted to the latest quarterly earnings reports from megacaps Apple and Amazon .

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Michael Ng, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, CNBC, U.S, NBC, Apple Locations: U.S

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