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☆ The Fed might not cut interest rates at all in 2025, Deutsche Bank economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementThe Fed will pause interest rate cuts through all of 2025, Deutsche Bank's chief US economist says. A strong economy and the inflationary impact of Trump's policies will offset the need for rate cuts, Matthew Luzzetti said. The Federal Reserve's easing cycle is closer to stalling than starting, at least according to Deutsche Bank. Chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti expects the central bank to pause interest rate cuts after a final quarter-point reduction in December. First, the US economy doesn't appear headed for an imminent slowdown, which dials back pressure on the Fed to prop up growth by lowering interest rates.

Persons: Matthew Luzzetti, Goldman, Luzzetti, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Deutsche, Deutsche Bank . Chief, Bloomberg, Fed, Luzzetti, Citi Locations: China, Mexico, Canada

☆ Inflation will keep falling next year despite fears of prices spiking under Trump, veteran economist Steve Hanke says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

AdvertisementTop economist Steve Hanke said that it's "nonsense" to think Trump's policies will spur inflation. Instead, inflation will depend on the Fed and the money supply, which has contracted since 2022. Advertisement"All this talk about Trump's policies are going to cause inflation to kick up again is just nonsense," the top economist said. "It depends on what the Fed is doing and what the monetary policy picture looks like with the money supply." Bessent has suggested ways to spread out any inflationary impact from Trump's trade policies.

Persons: Steve Hanke, Donald Trump's, Hanke, Trump's, Scott Bessent, Bessent Organizations: Fed, CNBC, Federal Reserve, NYSE, Trump

☆ The US is ramping up sanctions by targeting the last major Russian bank not yet blacklisted
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

AdvertisementThe US levied sanctions on Gazprombank, the last major Russian bank not yet blacklisted. Washington is clamping down on Gazprombank, Russia's last major lender operating free of US sanctions. Up until this point, Washington refrained from sanctions in order to maintain gas flows between Russia and remaining European customers. "Today's sanctions targeting Russia's largest remaining non-designated bank, as well as dozens of other financial institutions and officials in Russia, will further diminish and degrade Russia's war machine," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said. The so-called System for Transfer of Financial Messages is used to evade sanctions and fund Russia's war effort, the US said.

Persons: Russia's, Washington, Janet Yellen, OMV Organizations: Treasury, Treasury Department, Russia, Kremlin Locations: Russian, Russia, Europe, Washington, Ukraine, Austrian

☆ Trump's China tariffs would cut into US defense production, Beijing advisor says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

AdvertisementHigh tariffs on China could prevent the US defense industry from getting needed supplies, a Beijing advisor said. "If those military enterprises do not have supply from China, they will not be able to continue with their production." The US defense sector will face big repercussions if Donald Trump launches tariffs against China, an advisor tied to Beijing's government said. AdvertisementTo be sure, it remains to be seen how Trump's tariff ideas actually pan out. So far, the defense sector appears distracted by other developments tied to Trump's presidency.

Persons: Donald Trump, Ding Yifan, Trump, Ding, Greg Hayes Organizations: Defense, State Council's Development Research Center, Financial Times, JPMorgan, Government, P Aerospace Locations: China, Beijing

☆ 3 reasons why Russia's economy can survive without crisis for up to 5 more years, think-tank economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Russia's wartime economy could be in it for the long-haul — or at least longer than expected. A team of economists is unconvinced that Russia will tumble into economic collapse any time soon, as suggested by some analysts. The paper counters notions that a Russian crisis will come as soon as next year, an argument made by economists such as Yuriy Gorodnichenko. Don't underestimate domestic demandAccording to the report, Russia's domestic market has been an underrated factor behind the country's perseverance. Sustainable war spendingSome have forecast an immediate recession if Russia's war in Ukraine ever ends, arguing that the Kremlin's massive war budget is responsible for the economy's continued survival.

Persons: Yuriy Gorodnichenko, shouldn't Organizations: Center, UC Berkley, CASE, Kremlin, Moscow Locations: Russia, Europe, Russian, Moscow, Ukraine

☆ Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller says the Fed may have declared victory on inflation too early
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed may have declared inflation victory too early, Stanley Druckenmiller said. Inflation could could be bottoming right now, the billionaire investor told a Norges Bank podcast. "I'm a little worried that the Fed has declared victory too early," the billionaire investor said about consumer prices on a Norges Bank podcast. When inflation eases, the Fed lowers rates to make sure economic growth keeps up — and has justified its cuts given shifting labor prints. AdvertisementThough the podcast was recorded prior to the president-elect's victory, Druckenmiller cited that Trump's tariff plans are marginally inflationary.

Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, —, Stanley Druckenmiller isn't, Druckenmiller, Donald Trump Organizations: Norges Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Trump

☆ The Polymarket 'whale' actually made $85 million, far more than originally thought
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Polymarket trader who bet big on a Donald Trump win made much more than previously thought. New research from Chainalysis estimates a total profit of over $85 million, up from $48 million. AdvertisementA Polymarket trader who bet tens of millions on Donald Trump's presidential win appears to have raked in a much larger profit than previously known. A new estimate now places that figure at more than $85 million, well above the earlier tally of $48 million, according to research from the blockchain-analysis firm Chainalysis. Collectively, Polymarket traders bet around $3.7 billion in volume over who would win the US presidency.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, Donald Trump's, Théo Organizations: Service, Trump, Wall

☆ The financial ties between China and Saudi Arabia keep getting deeper
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China has chosen Saudi Arabia as the site for its next offering of US dollar bonds. Saudi Arabia is leaning on Chinese investment to bankroll large development projects. Saudi Arabia has embraced Chinese investment to help bankroll its juggernaut modernization plans. At the end of October, Saudi Arabia debuted two new exchange traded funds to track markets in Hong Kong and China. Earlier this year, the US offered Saudi Arabia tech and security deals on the condition that Riyadh rejects its new tech alliance with China.

Persons: It's, — Organizations: Service, Ministry, Finance, Saudi Public Investment Fund, Financial Times, Tech, US Locations: China, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, Beijing, Russia, Neom, Hong Kong, Saudi

☆ Another jumbo Fed cut is coming by year-end with the US labor market weaker than many think, Citi economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed is going to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December, Citi economist Veronica Clark said. Labor market weakness is showing across a number of data points, she said. According to Veronica Clark, deteriorating labor dynamics will force the central bank to cut rates by 50 basis points in December. Her point has grown more evident after October's jobs report underwhelmed expectations with only 12,000 jobs added. AdvertisementThough October's unemployment rate stayed unchanged on a rounded basis, Clark noted that it was it nearly rounded to 4.2%.

Persons: Veronica Clark, It's, Clark, —, Reserve isn't Organizations: Citi, Labor, Service, Reserve, Bloomberg

☆ Retiree spending helped thwart a US recession. But boomers are losing a key financial advantage.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Retirees have been spending big thanks to recent gains in Social Security income, Bank of America said. But annual payment increases are falling behind workers' wage growth, the note said. Some economists have said baby boomer spending helped ward off a recession in recent years. Bank of America said retired consumers enjoyed greater spending power in the past two years as Social Security income got a boost. AdvertisementThe trouble with weaker spending among baby boomers is that the generation's willingness to splurge has been credited with helping the US avoid a recession in recent years.

Persons: boomer, —, X, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Social, Bank of America, Service, Social Security, Bank of America Institute

☆ Amazon earnings live updates: Wall Street watching for margins, signs of consumer health
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Amazon will release its third-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Thursday. Wall Street is bullish on the stock, though uncertainty lingers around Amazon's consumer health. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAmazon will report third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

Persons: — Organizations: Service

☆ Wall Street is bullish on Amazon earnings despite uncertainty around consumer spending, rising investment costs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

CFRA trimmed its Amazon price target to $219 a share on October 21, indicating 13% upside ahead. The firm has a "buy" rating on the stock and a $210 price target, which implies an 8.3% gain from current levels. The firm said investors have toned down margin expectations due to Amazon's spending in new investment areas, such as Project Kuiper. AdvertisementWedbush reiterated its "outperform" rating and $225 price target, implying a 16% gain from current levels. Morgan Stanley has a $210 price target for the stock, representing upside of about 8% from Wednesday's share price.

Persons: —, Arun Sundaram, Sundaram, Justin Post, BofA, Scott Devitt, Wedbush, Morgan Stanley, Bullish, Brian Nowak Organizations: Service, CFRA, Bank of America, Amazon Web Services, 3Q, JPMorgan, Wedbush Securities

☆ Germany's government is making life more difficult for solar farms that it often has to subsidize
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A new law proposed by Germany will limit which solar producers are reimbursed when energy prices fall. The outlet cited fresh plans to restrict which producers will receive subsidies when energy falls below a fixed price. The government has previously estimated that German renewable subsidies would reach $21.6 billion this year. That's as the country's solar buildout has brought so much renewable energy online that wholesale power prices have frequently fallen below zero. AdvertisementMeanwhile, analysts have noted this year that supplementary investments in battery technology and the electric grid are needed if renewable energy is to escape negative pricing.

Persons: That's Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Locations: Germany, Europe, Ukraine

☆ Trump's immigration crackdown could deplete the construction workforce and make housing more expensive
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Related storiesA 2022 George W. Bush Institute study found that US metros with the highest immigrant population growth scored the lowest construction costs. Without the supply of these workers, history suggests housing costs are likely to rise. These could be significant, given that the construction industry would be competing against other immigrant-dependent sectors. Trump's campaign has implied that cracking down on immigration will help ease housing unaffordability by effectively removing one source of demand. Meanwhile, Trump's platform is also pushing another policy initiative that's unlikely to help housing costs: tariffs.

Persons: Donald Trump, —, Donald Trump's, doesn't bode, Jim Tobin, Tobin, George W, JD Vance Organizations: Service, Republican, National Association of Home Builders, Home Builders Institute, Bush, SC, Congressional

☆ Billionaire investor David Einhorn says buying HP stock is a cheap way into the AI craze
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

David Einhorn said computer hardware maker HP could eventually benefit from AI. He said HP stock trading around 10x earnings looks "very reasonable." AdvertisementFamed hedge fund investor David Einhorn is eyeing a tech stock that could be an under-the-radar artificial intelligence play. One of these names is computer hardware firm HP, Einhorn told Bloomberg TV. The stock is trading 10 times earnings, pays a dividend yield of over 3%, and spends 100% of free cash flow paying shareholders, he said.

Persons: David Einhorn, —, Einhorn Organizations: HP, Service, Greenlight, Bloomberg, COVID, Robin Hood Investors Conference

☆ A contested election that leads to weeks of uncertainty is a risk being overlooked by markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should beware of a contested US election, BlackRock's Jean Boivin told Bloomberg TV on Thursday. AdvertisementInvestors are dismissing the risk of a disputed US election, BlackRock Investment Institute head Jean Boivin told Bloomberg TV on Thursday. Recent battleground state polling shows a race too close to call with the election less than two weeks away. Other market strategists have echoed in recent weeks Boivin's concern over what an election dispute would mean for markets. Meanwhile, stocks rose during Trump's election dispute in 2020, likely due to signs that the COVID-19 pandemic was ending.

Persons: BlackRock's Jean Boivin, —, Jean Boivin, Boivin, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Brian Gardner, George W, Bush, Al Gore, Gardner Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, BlackRock Investment Institute, Trump, Republican Locations: Washington

☆ Existing-home sales hit a 14-year low as homebuyers hold out for lower rates that may not come
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Existing-home sales dropped by 1% last month, reaching their lowest level since October 2010. Homebuyers stayed on the sidelines in anticipation of lower mortgage rates. AdvertisementUS existing-home sales dropped to a nearly 14-year low in September as prospective homebuyers held back in anticipation of lower mortgage rates. AdvertisementAccording to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed by 70 basis points since then, to 6.85% from 6.15%. Related storiesIf this trend continues, those prospective homebuyers holding out for lower mortgage rates will be waiting a while.

Persons: Homebuyers, —, Redfin Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Mortgage News

☆ Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones says he's buying gold and bitcoin pre-election because inflation will rise under both Trump and Harris
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation will rise regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency, Paul Tudor Jones said. "All roads lead to inflation," Jones said on Tuesday. "I'm long gold. I'm long bitcoin. I think commodities are so ridiculously under-owned, so I'm long commodities.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Paul Tudor Jones, —, Jones, that's, Trump, Jones —, Harris Organizations: Service, CNBC, Nasdaq, Republican, White, Congressional, Office, Trump, Treasury

☆ A Trump win will fuel a long-term buying opportunity in the Chinese market, stock chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Trump election win will spur a Chinese stock sell-off that will then offer a buying opportunity, an equity strategist said. AdvertisementA presidential victory for Donald Trump will trigger a sell-off in Chinese stocks that would then create a buy-the-dip opportunity, Christopher Wood of Jefferies said. Advertisement"Bottom line, if Donald Trump's elected and Chinese stocks collapse, that's an opportunity to add to China," he outlined. He continued: "People have forgotten that Donald Trump did the big trade deal with China in January 2020. A trade deal was done, and it was all hunky dory, and Donald Trump was going to run on that presidential campaign as I'm the guy who's negotiated the best trade deal with China since WTO."

Persons: Christopher Wood, Jefferies, —, Donald Trump, Trump, — Wood, isn't, Donald Trump's, dory, who's, Wood Organizations: Trump, Service, Bloomberg, Republican, Beijing, Nvidia Locations: China, Beijing, Washington

☆ Stock market today: Indexes slide and yields rise as rate-cut outlook dims
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

On the earnings front, Tesla, UPS, and Boeing will report later in the week. AdvertisementUS stocks headed for their second losing session in a row, with major indexes slumping Tuesday morning amid a rise in bond yields. The key bond yield jumped above 4.2% for the first time since July. Boeing is also due to report on Wednesday, while UPS will report results on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:Here's what else happened today:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:

Persons: Stocks, —, Patrick Harker, Tesla Organizations: UPS, Boeing, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Here's

☆ The S&P 500's golden decade of returns is over, Goldman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 will see annualized returns of 3% over the next 10 years, says Goldman Sachs. By its calculation, the S&P 500 has about a 72% chance of trailing bonds, and a 33% probability of lagging inflation through 2034. These stocks include tech large-caps such as Nvidia and Alphabet, whose performance has driven the S&P 500 more than 20% higher year-to-date. The same issue plagues a highly concentrated index," Goldman said. According to Goldman, S&P 500 firms that have consistently generated over 20% revenue growth underwent a sharp drop off after 10 years.

Persons: annualized, Goldman Sachs, That's, —, Goldman, that's Organizations: Service, Nvidia

☆ Why famed short-seller Carson Block won't bet against Tesla
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Famed short-seller Carson Block says he wouldn't bet against Elon Musk's Tesla. "I just won't bet against Elon." AdvertisementCarson Block, known for his shrewd short bets against companies, says he won't bet against Tesla. It's an about-face of sorts for Block, who said he'd bet against Tesla in the past. "I just won't bet against Elon."

Persons: Carson Block, Elon Musk's Tesla, Block, Elon, —, Carson, Tesla, Muddy Waters, … Elon, Tesla's, haven't, that's Organizations: Elon, Service, Muddy, Bloomberg

☆ Here's the trading playbook as data piles up in support of a 'no landing' for the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-20 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Odds of a "no landing" scenario for the economy are rising amid continued strong economic data. The "no landing" scenario entails a continued run of hot economic data and growth that boosts markets but also precludes a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. According to Cox, that means that short-term interest rates will drop to around 3% in the no landing scenario, even if long-term rates remain elevated. AdvertisementAfter all, a no landing scenario is the best outcome for the economy, Cox said, and given hot growth, the situation effectively tosses recession fears out the window. This would be just the fourth time in US history that the Fed has cut interest rates without a downturn, he added.

Persons: —, BofA, Reacceleration, Jamie Cox, Cox, They're, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, UBS, Fed, Nvidia, Apple

☆ Gold climbs to record high as Hamas-leader death stokes geopolitical tensions
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Gold reached reached a new-all time high on Friday, topping $2,700 for the first time. Geopolitical tensions have been a driving force behind gold's record-setting rally in 2024. AdvertisementGold hit another record high amid simmering geopolitical unease in the Middle East. Futures climbed as much as 1% to $2,720 an ounce on Friday as the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar late Thursday spurred renewed concerns of further geopolitical tension. According to analysts at ING, gold investors were responding to Israel's pledge to continue fighting, rather than de-escalate, per President Joe Biden's recommendation.

Persons: Gold, —, Yahya Sinwar, Joe Biden's, They've, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden, Alex Kutsikevich, there's Organizations: Service, ING, Traders, Reuters, UN Locations: Iran, Asia

☆ Chip stocks rally after TSMC's strong sales forecast calms growth worries
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Semiconductor stocks rose after TSMC's strong sales forecast. TSMC's performance boosts an industry shaken by another chipmaker's disappointing outlook this week. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Two days after a broad semiconductor-stock sell-off driven by a light forecast from the Dutch firm ASML, chipmakers rallied on Thursday on TSMC's strong results. TSMC's third-quarter earnings report saw the company increase its 2024 sales-growth forecast to 30%, up from previous projections of mid-20% expansion.

Persons: —, chipmakers, C.C, Wei, It's, ASML Organizations: Service, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron, iShares Semiconductor Locations: New York

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