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Cyclical industries such as manufacturing often drive profit cycles. That makes a comedown for the U.S. economy seem less likely. The Commerce Department on Wednesday reported that before-tax corporate profits rose 1.1% from a year earlier in the third quarter. This compares with a decline of 6% in the second quarter. Exclude the Fed, and corporate profits rose by 6.7% in the third quarter compared with a gain of 1.6% in the second.
Persons: Brian Kaiser Organizations: Bloomberg, Commerce Department, Federal Locations: U.S
The October jobs report — with the economy adding just 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% — was a disappointment. Of particular notice, the unemployment rate has increased by half a percentage point over the past six months. A simple way to show that things are still in balance is to look at Okun's law, a relationship between movements in the unemployment rate and economic activity. The historical record shows that once it rises half a percentage point, the unemployment rate tends to rise even more. The unemployment rate is already above the Fed's year-end forecast of 3.8% — the first time that's happened since March 2022.
Persons: Jerome Powell, it's, It's, we're, What's, what's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro Locations: joblessness, nonfarm payrolls
Plug Power shares have slipped 63% this year, Enphase Energy shares have plunged 60%, SolarEdge Technologies shares have declined 71% and NextEra Energy shares have slid 29%. Yet clean energy stocks haven’t recovered, despite hopes that an influx of US government spending on climate solutions would help revive the sector. The culprit behind clean energy stocks’ poor returns? Krull sees the current rut in clean energy stocks as a buying opportunity for investors. Clean energy stocks also aren’t the only way investors are putting their cash to work with a sustainability mindset.
Persons: Biden, Todd Jones, Jean Rosenbaum, Andrew Poreda, That’s, Peter Krull, Krull, ” Krull Organizations: New, New York CNN, Clean Energy, Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, NextEra Energy, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Gratus Capital, Sage Advisory, Earth Equity Advisors, Nvidia Locations: New York, Paris
Joachim Nagel, President of Germany's federal reserve Bundesbank addresses the media during the bank's annual news conference in Frankfurt, Germany March 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNICOSIA, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation will carry on declining in the months ahead but at a slower pace, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel was quoted as telling Cypriot newspaper Kathimerini on Sunday. "We have not yet won the fight against inflation," said Nagel, who visited Cyprus last week. "Add in a scenario where an escalation of geopolitical tensions could imply higher inflation and it becomes clear that it would be way too early to declare victory over high inflation rates," said Nagel, an influential voice on the ECB's rate setting Governing Council. "All in all, I expect inflation to carry on declining, but at a slower pace and with possible bumps along the way," Nagel said.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Kai Pfaffenbach, Nagel, " Nagel, Michele Kambas, David Goodman Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Cypriot, Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Rights NICOSIA, Cyprus
Don, 43, is a self-made millionaire who used to place immense pressure on himself to earn more money. He's now focusing on other things in his life, like his kids, that bring him more happiness than wealth ever could. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Advertisement'You need the humility that it can be taken away from you'Don said his upbringing largely influenced the way he now thinks about money and wealth. "So what are those things that you do have in your life that money can't measure?
Persons: Don, , he's, it's, That's Organizations: Service, Federal, New York Federal, Suffolk University Sawyer Business School, USA
That's a far-cry from where many Wall Street pros thought stocks would end the year. Others, like analysts at Bank of America, BMO, and Deutsche Bank believe the market could roar to new all-time highs . Rather than try to guess where the market is heading next, investors would be better off finding high-quality stocks to invest in for the long run. Thankfully, Morningstar's Margaret Giles recently compiled a list of the stocks to buy now, drawn from analysts' larger collection of the best companies to own. These stocks have "predictable cash flows and are run by management teams that have a history of making smart capital-allocation decisions," she wrote.
Persons: Taylor Swift, JP Morgan, Morningstar's Margaret Giles Organizations: Business, JP, Bank of America, BMO, Deutsche Bank
“The key thing we have to watch is housing,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday. He is shown above at The Wall Street Journal Global Food Forum in Chicago in June. Photo: Kevin Sikorski for The Wall Street JournalInflation seems on track toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and now the big question is what will happen with housing in 2024, a top Fed official said Friday. “It was absolutely where we wanted it to be,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said of the government’s latest inflation data.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Kevin Sikorski Organizations: Chicago Fed, Wall Street, Food Forum, The Wall, Federal, Fed Locations: Chicago
But is there a way to figure out exactly how much you should save each month? Around 20% of your income (after taxes) is a good amount to save each month, according to the 50-30-20 budget and 70-20-10 budget. Over time, you can may find that you can save more each month — going from $20 to $30, and so forth. A person with that income would need to save around $660.50 per month if they are using the 50-30-20 budget rule. The amount each person should save per month will likely depend on their savings goals and current budget, though.
Persons: Patrina Dixon, Dixon, You'll Organizations: Quicken, Fidelity Investments, United States Census Bureau, Consumer Finances Locations: CFEI, U.S
In the final run-up to the late-July peak in stocks this column surveyed the rally , and asked, "Enough for now? .SPX YTD line The S & P 500's year-to-date performance Yes, the market is overbought by various technical measures. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Barclays are seeing the S & P 500 as dead money next year, at best. The virtues of owning the S & P 500 passively have always been low cost, tax efficiency, low turnover and broad exposure to the asset class. While 2021 was a Nasdaq 100 melt-up year, 2022 was the mirror image: Big Tech got blasted and the equal-weight S & P 500 held up better.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jack Bogle, Alan Greenspan's Organizations: Federal, Deutsche, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, Barclays, Hamas, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Big Tech, matchless, Treasury Locations: Wells Fargo, Israel
Former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen was sworn in as secretary of the treasury in 2021, becoming the first woman to hold that spot. She has also chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Elizabeth Frantz for The Wall Street Journal
Persons: Janet Yellen, Elizabeth Frantz Organizations: Federal, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Wall Street
Historically, November is the best month of the year for the stock market, and December is third, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Under the surface this week, we also saw signs of a possible market rotation in the works. Rotation watch : We must look to next week's trading for confirmation that we're in the grips of a rotation or simply a head fake. Signs of the former were on display this week as the two of the biggest sector winners of the year, communication services and technology , trailed the market. Jobs, jobs, jobs : The most important release of the week comes Friday in the form of the November nonfarm payrolls report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Locker, it's, Hock Tan, We'll, Joann, JOAN, JM Smucker, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, Smith, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems, VMWare, Club, PMI, Labor, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Brands, Toll, Thor Industries, Natural Foods, GameStop, Vail Resorts, MTN, Smith & Wesson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Asana, ASAN, New York City
The key catalyst for stocks will likely continue to be the expected trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In September, historically the weakest month for stocks, the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 9% gain in November, historically a strong month for the index. Overall, December has been the second-best month for the S&P 500, with the index up an average of 1.54% for the month since 1945, according to CFRA. Many other names have languished: The equal-weighted S&P 500, whose performance is not skewed by big tech and growth stocks, is up around 6% in 2023.
Persons: Mike Segar, Santa Claus, Stocks, We've, Sam Stovall, Claus, Kraft Heinz, BofA, Sameer Samana, Dow, Michael Hartnett, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Research, Investors, LPL, BofA Global Research, PayPal Holdings, CVS Health, Kraft, Wells, Investment Institute, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Coinbase Global, Innovation, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Santa, New York
The housing demand from millennials has made it harder for the generation to get into the game. Meanwhile, housing prices are still high but have started to pull back recently in some areas of the country. In September, Zillow reported that the total US housing market reached a record value of $52 trillion, a 49% jump since before the pandemic. AdvertisementMillennials are in danger of creating a housing bubbleThe research from Indiana University warns that the larger millennial population could lead to a housing bubble and a crash in the housing market. Demand from this generation is expected to wane just as baby boomers start to leave the housing market.
Persons: , millennials, Zillow, ZIllow, Paul Bradbury, Millennials, boomers, Ariel Skelley, Xers, Tom Grill Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Indiana Business Research Center, IU Center, Real Estate, Getty, Education Data Initiative, National Association of Realtors, Indiana University Locations: millennials
[1/2] Wells Fargo CEO Tim Sloan testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing titled: "Holding Megabanks Accountable: An Examination of Wells Fargo's Pattern of Consumer Abuses" in Washington, U.S. March 12, 2019. Sloan in the lawsuit filed in California state court says Wells Fargo canceled stock awards and withheld a bonus he had earned before stepping down. Wells Fargo in a statement said that "compensation decisions are based on performance, and we stand by our decisions in this matter." Sloan led Wells Fargo from 2016 to 2019, when he became the second chief executive to step down over claims that the bank had opened millions of unauthorized consumer accounts. Sloan accused Wells Fargo of breach of contract and, along with the $34 million, is seeking unspecified damages for emotional distress and punitive damages.
Persons: Tim Sloan, Erin Scott, Sloan, Wells, Wells Fargo, Sloan's, David Lowe, Francoise Brougher, Daniel Wiessner, Diane Craft Organizations: Wells, Financial, REUTERS, Former Wells Fargo & Co, Federal Reserve, Tesla, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, California, Wells, Wells Fargo, Sloan's San Francisco, Albany , New York
Within two months of ChatGPT's launch, the groundbreaking chatbot amassed 100 million users, wowing investors, consumers and Wall Street with its ability to compose human-like text and hold a conversation. A year later, Wall Street hasn't stopped obsessing over it. Megacap technology stocks also prospered amid the newfound investor focus on AI. MSFT 1Y mountain Microsoft shares over the last year Rounding out the megacap list, both Meta Platforms and Amazon have rallied more than 177% and 51%, respectively. Salesforce shares surged more than 9% during Thursday's session on the back of a stronger-than-expected quarterly print .
Persons: , hasn't, Alphabet, Mark Zuckerberg, Andy Jassy, Salesforce, Brent Thill, CNBC's, Snowflake's, ChatGPT, Brad Gerstner Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Devices, Marvell Technology, Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta, Amazon, CNBC, Semiconductor, Oracle, Jefferies, Technologies Locations: Salesforce
Mortgage rates fell dramatically last month, and they could drop further in 2024. Today, average 30-year mortgage rates are nearly 80 basis points down from where they were a month ago. As inflation continues to slow, mortgage rates should come down even more. This means that as long as inflation keeps decelerating, mortgage rates should come down. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Spelman College, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Atlanta, Chevron
Inflation’s Cooldown Gives the Fed Leeway
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Justin Lahart | )   time to read: 1 min
The personal-consumption expenditures price index is one of the Fed’s most closely watched gauges of inflation. Markets are betting the new data puts the Fed on pace to cut rates in 2024. That was its slimmest year-over-year gain since March 2021. Core prices, which exclude food and energy items in an effort to better track inflation’s underlying trend, rose 0.2% from September. That put them 3.5% above their year-earlier level for the smallest gain since April 2021.
Persons: Dion Rabouin, Rucosky Sit Organizations: The Commerce Department
Millennials said in a recent survey that they need $525,000 a year to be happy. It's likely due to high debt loads millennials hold, along with childcare and housing costs. The average respondent said they think they need a $284,167 annual salary to be happy, and for millennials, that amount was much higher at $525,000. As Business Insider recently reported, millennials' financial well-being has plummeted, according to Morning Consult's latest iteration of its well-being index. Big debt loads are a contributor to millennials' financial well-being right now.
Persons: Millennials, , Gen Z, Gen X, millennials, Fannie Mae, it's, Jimmy Gomez, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Consumer Financial, Federal, New York Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, National Association of Realtors
Gold set for 3rd weekly gain as cooler data cements Fed cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( )   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices were set to mark a third straight weekly rise on Friday, after data showing cooling inflation cemented bets for a rate cut in the U.S., with traders looking forward to comments from Federal Reserve's Chair Powell later in the day. Spot gold rose 0.2% at $2,039.42 per ounce by 0427 GMT, after marking an over $60 rise in November — its second straight monthly rise. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. "However, month-end flow may have also been a factor, and seasonality tends to favor gains for gold between November and December," City Index's Simpson added.
Persons: Powell, Matt Simpson, CME's, Index's Simpson, Hugo Pascal Organizations: Aurum, Traders, U.S Locations: U.S, InProved
Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, , Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
Periods of high inflation would offset those when inflation was low as occurred between the financial crisis and the pandemic. Those concerns may not matter anymore if the pandemic has driven inflation and interest rates chronically higher. Speaking at a Boston Fed labor market conference in November, Kohn said the new framework showed the risks of not keeping inflation at bay to begin with. "Probing" for maximum employment "can't ignore...inflation risks," Kohn said, calling for a return to a strategy disavowed in the last review. "I think preemptive tightening is best-practice central banking, and I hope they return to allowing that."
Persons: Joshua Roberts, Jerome Powell, There's, Miesha Williams, Powell, Charles Evans, Evans, Fed, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Donald Kohn, Kohn, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Spelman College, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Chicago, Cleveland Fed, Boston Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta
Listen and follow The DailyApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicFor many millennials, buying a home has become almost entirely out of reach. Average 30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 7 percent — the highest they’ve been since 2007 — largely because of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation. David Leonhardt, a senior writer for The New York Times, discusses whether it is time to change how we think about buying vs. renting.
Persons: David Leonhardt Organizations: Spotify, The New York Times
Forex swings will upend lucrative yen carry trade
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | )   time to read: +3 min
But as central banks start moving in the opposite direction, those “carry trades” will become a lot riskier. Notably those who bet against its government bonds in a trade so bad it became known as the “widow maker”. Foreign exchange traders beg to differ: the carry trade has been a sure-fire money maker this year. That’s due to the huge gap in short-term interest rates between Japan, where they are -0.1%, and other countries. Reuters GraphicsThe most popular carry trade with yen has been into U.S. dollars .
Persons: , , Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, LSEG, Bank of America, U.S, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Japan, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, Ukraine
Bank of England drags Bagehot into the shadows
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Liam Proud | )   time to read: +8 min
That is no longer tenable, in part because of reforms to bank regulation that shifted activity from traditional lenders to financial market players. These days, the institutions in need of urgent liquidity are just as likely to be pension funds, insurers or hedge funds. The British central bank’s initial ideas make sense, but only solve part of the problem. The central bank can short-circuit the panic by opening the credit taps. Central banks are only just starting to grapple with what it means to be a lender of last resort in that context.
Persons: Walter Bagehot’s, Andrew Hauser, BoE, WALTER, Gurney, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Pensions, . Treasury, Citadel, Millennium Management, City of, U.S . Federal, Gurney & Company, Victorian, Thomson Locations: British, City, City of London, Basel, Overend, Lombard
Now, as Fed policymakers note improvement on inflation and some cooling in the labor market, the risks are seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced. The following chart offers a look at how officials currently stack up on their outlooks for Fed policy and how to balance their goals of stable prices and full employment. Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, was in July. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
Persons: Jeff Schmid, Adriana Kugler, Louis Fed, James Bullard, Louis, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Federal Open Market, New York Fed, Kansas City Fed's, Fed's, Governors, Interim, Louis Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, St
Total: 25