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Rising global trade tensions present a risk to the euro area economy, the bloc's central bank found in its biannual Financial Stability Review out on Wednesday. The European Central Bank also said weak growth was now a bigger threat than high inflation in the 20-nation euro zone. The latest figures recorded euro zone economic growth at a two-year high of 0.4% in the third quarter, while headline inflation hit 2% in October. "Rising global trade tensions and a possible further strengthening of protectionist tendencies across the world raise concerns about the potential adverse impact on global growth, inflation and asset prices," the Financial Stability Review said. Economists say the knock-on impact of implementing these measures could drag on the euro, if a slowdown in exports spurs the ECB to cut interest rates further and faster.
Persons: Donald Trump's Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S Locations: U.S, China
The euro has declined rapidly, meanwhile, briefly dipping below $1.05 on Nov. 14 for the first time since October 2023. Modeling by Barclays' economists shows the euro hitting dollar parity with a 10% tariff on European products and subsequent retaliation. The bank said the prospect of Trump tariffs and fiscal reforms had caused it to revise its view that the dollar would gradually decline through the year, instead seeing the U.S. currency "stronger for longer." Since hitting a low in September 2022, the euro has been comfortably back above parity even if below its long-range average. One of those 2022 factors roared back into focus this week, weighing broadly on European assets: the threat of escalating tensions with Russia.
Persons: Donald Trump, James Reilly, Reilly, George Saravelos, Trump, Saravelos, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: U.S, Republican, China —, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Federal, European Central Bank, FX Research, Deutsche Bank, Trump, Barclays, ECB, Fed Locations: Congress, China, U.S, Europe, Russia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrump presidency adds to uncertainty for euro zone economy, European Central Bank's De Guindos saysLuis de Guindos, vice-president of the European Central Bank, discusses inflation and growth in the euro area, the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump in the U.S. and the ECB's latest Financial Stability Review.
Persons: De Guindos, Luis de Guindos, Donald Trump Organizations: Email Trump, European Central Bank Locations: U.S
Dollar sitting pretty, yen bears wary of Bank of Japan hawks
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Yen bears were tense in case Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda used a speech later Monday to flag a possible rate hike in December, in part due to the weakness of the currency. Markets imply around a 55% chance of a quarter-point rate hike to 0.5% when the BOJ meets on Dec. 19. Against a basket of currencies the dollar held at 106.730, having touched a one-year top of 107.07 on Friday. The rally has coincided with a savage swing in 10-year Treasury yields, which have climbed 70 basis points since the start of October, fuelling a 5.4% rise in the U.S. dollar index . Analysts generally assume Trump's touted policies of tariffs, reduced immigration and debt-funded tax cuts will be inflationary, so limiting the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Donald Trump's, Katsunobu Kato, Jonas Goltermann, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Scott Bessent Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Japanese Finance, Capital Economics, Trump, Federal Reserve, Central Bankers Locations: U.S, Japan, Canada
City of London skyline view looking over the River Thames and Waterloo Bridge at sunset on 10th February 2024 in London, United Kingdom. European markets were on track to rise as a new trading week kicks off Monday, with investors looking to shake off last week's negative sentiment and attention turning to regional inflation data. Italy's FTSE MIB was also on track to open higher, adding 158 points to 34,060. Investors this week will be looking to several key regional data points, including the latest inflation data out of the U.K. on Wednesday. The figures come after Friday's U.K. gross domestic product reading, which came in at 0.1% in the third quarter, falling short of expectations.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CAC, Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: London, United Kingdom
The U.S. Federal Reserve could carry out fewer interest rate cuts than previously expected next year should President-elect Donald Trump's proposed global tariffs take hold, former Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said Tuesday. Markets trimmed their forecasts for rate cuts following Trump's election victory last week, with speculation growing around his tariff proposals and their implications for the world economy. It comes as concern is growing among global policymakers about the implications of Trump's fiscal plans, particularly on tariffs. "A trade war is the last thing we need," he continued. "If a trade war is to start, the European Union must not be unprepared as it was in 2018."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Loretta Mester, Mester, they're, Trump, It's, there's, , Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: U.S . Federal, UBS European Conference, Cleveland Federal Reserve, Reuters, Trump, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank policymaker, UBS, European Union Locations: London, U.S, Europe, European
Europe's banks brace for tougher competition under Trump 2.0
  + stars: | 2024-11-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
JPMorgan , Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley shares all soared while the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index is down more than 1% for the week. "If U.S. banks get the expected policy support, they could ramp up loan volumes and optimize capital in ways that Europe's banks just can't match right now," Materazzi said. Since early 2010, European banking shares have fallen 10%, while U.S. lenders have more than tripled. The European Central Bank has estimated that euro zone banks' return on equity fluctuates around 5%, against 10% in the U.S., linking it to higher U.S. fee income and legacy non-performing loans with which European banks still grapple. A wave of deregulation should give European banks some leverage to lobby for easing the rules in Europe, which are already more onerous, one banking executive told Reuters.
Persons: Boris Roessler, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, David Materazzi, Materazzi, Karin Keller, Sutter, Rachel Reeves, Trump Organizations: Getty, JPMorgan, Galileo, European Central Bank, Trump . Swiss, Reuters, The Locations: Frankfurt, U.S, Britain, Basel, Italy, USA, Europe, The U.S
Incumbent governments have been punished in Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere. The near-universal shift away from Democrats echoes voters' rejection of incumbent political parties across the world this year. South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. Similarly, Deutsche Bank's Reid wrote that voters are disappointed by how slowly their lives are improving amid cooler economic growth. He said they don't buy that incumbents can tackle immigration, some incumbent governments have had scandals, and voters have become "much more willing to change their vote from election to election."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, , Donald Trump, Biden, Harris, Narendra Modi, Korea's Democrat Party snagged, Jim Reid, Tina Fordham, Louis Perron, Deutsche Bank's Reid Organizations: Service, Democratic, Britain's Labour Party, Conservative Party, Rally, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Indian, Korea's Democrat Party, National Congress, ANC, Deutsche Bank, Fed, Bank of England, European Central Bank, CNN, Win, Deutsche Locations: Britain, France, India, Japan, South Korea, London, Tokyo, Seoul, Cape Town, Washington, Gaza, country's, South, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCBDC comes about when consumers move from cash to digital payment: ECB's Ulrich BindseilUlrich Bindseil from European Central Bank talks about the future prospects of digital Euro.
Persons: ECB's Ulrich Bindseil Ulrich Bindseil Organizations: European Central Bank
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. One stock we did buy a day ago was BlackRock , and Jim said Thursday the asset manager is still an attractive stock to buy. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Trump, White, Jim, It's, Stanley Black, Decker, Stocks, Ralph Lauren, Lyft, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Corona, Constellation Brands, BlackRock, Meta, Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, Warner Bros . Locations: U.S, Europe, BlackRock
Don't ignore the European market, Jim Cramer says
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday told investors not to write off the power of European markets, pointing out economic growth across the region. But he pointed out a number of developments in the European economy, including three rate cuts from the European Central Bank. Cramer suggested there's been growth across the continent, especially in southern rim countries like Portugal, Italy and Greece. Cramer added that he was impressed by growth in European markets that tech giants Amazon and Apple reported when they posted earnings last week. "Sooner or later, Wall Street's going to wake up to the fact that Europe is back," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, there's, Donald Trump, Wall Organizations: European Central Bank, Credit Suisse, Banco Santander, Apple Locations: Europe, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, China
Inflation in the 20-nation euro zone rose to 2% in October, preliminary figures released by statistics agency Eurostat showed Thursday. The fresh Thursday inflation print is seen as crucial in judging whether the European Central Bank could consider implementing a jumbo half-percentage-point cut in interest rates at its next meeting in December. The central bank has so far trimmed rates three times this year, making quarter-point increments that altogether took the central bank's key rate from 4% to 3.25%. Traders are also considering the latest growth figures for the euro area, which showed better-than-expected 0.4% expansion in the third quarter, even as analysts predicted further weakness ahead. The ECB said during its October meeting that sluggishness in the euro zone's economic activity had added to its confidence that inflation will not resurge dramatically.
Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Traders, ECB Locations: Bonn, Germany
Traders sit in front of trading screens at ETX Capital in central London on January 3, 2017. LONDON — European markets were heading for a lower open Thursday as investors look ahead to the latest euro zone inflation data. The preliminary reading for October will be closely watched as it will inform the European Central Bank as to the trajectory of expected interest rate cuts. Flash economic data published Wednesday showed that the euro zone economy grew 0.4% in the third quarter of 2024, above the 0.2% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters. There are more earnings Thursday with Shell , Stellantis , Maersk , AB Inbev and Carlsberg reporting.
Persons: Rachel Reeves Organizations: London's FTSE, European Central Bank, Reuters, Shell, Maersk, AB Inbev, Carlsberg, Labour Locations: London, London's
Yen under pressure as BOJ keeps rates steady
  + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen remained under pressure on Thursday as the Bank of Japan kept ultra-low interest rates steady, while the U.S. dollar consolidated ahead of jobs data later this week and the U.S. presidential election next week. The BOJ kept interest rates steady on Thursday and roughly maintained its forecast that inflation will hover near its 2% inflation target in coming years, signaling its readiness to continue rolling back its massive monetary stimulus. Analysts are divided over the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by year-end, putting the focus on BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting briefing for clues on the pace and timing of further increases. "Any strengthening of the yen at present would likely result from a general weakening of the U.S. dollar if interest rates begin to align," said Sean Teo, a sales trader at Saxo.
Persons: Yen, Kazuo Ueda's, Sean Teo, payrolls, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Saxo, National Statistics, PMI, Westpac, European Central Bank, Australian, Analysts, New Zealand Locations: China, U.S
The euro zone economy grew 0.4% in the third quarter, flash figures published by the European Union's statistics agency showed Wednesday. Analysts say euro zone growth should cautiously pick up in the coming months, amid lower interest rates and cooling inflation. The ECB cited persistent signs of weak activity in the euro area as a key factor in the central bank's decision to enact an October cut. Markets have fully priced another 25-basis-point cut from the ECB in its last meeting of the year in December. The euro zone's biggest economy, Germany, recorded surprise growth of 0.2% in the third quarter, according to figures published on Wednesday.
Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Madrid, Spain, Germany
Germany's inflation surged to 2.4% in October, back above the European Central Bank's 2% target, even as the country narrowly avoided a technical recession in the third quarter. The preliminary print, announced by German statistics office Destatis, is harmonized across the euro area for comparability. Harmonized inflation had dropped to 1.8% in September, after coming in at the European Central Bank's 2% target in August. So-called core inflation, which strips out more volatile food and energy costs, came in at 2.9% in October, the German statistics office said Wednesday, an increase from the 2.7% reading of September. In a note translated by CNBC, Deutsche Bank economist Sebastian Becker said that the renewed rise in core inflation showed that the problem of growth in price increases was not resolved, and that further patience was needed.
Persons: Sebastian Becker, Carsten Brzeski, meanwhile, Destatis Organizations: Central, German, comparability, Reuters, CNBC, Deutsche Bank, ING Locations: Bavarian, Germany
An Australian one dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this illustration photo taken February 12, 2016. The dollar hovered close to a three-month peak on Wednesday in a big week for macroeconomic data that could reveal the path for U.S. monetary policy. The Australian dollar edged closer to a three-month trough after some stickiness in inflation suggested a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut is unlikely this year. The ADP employment report is due later in the day, ahead of the potentially crucial monthly payrolls report on Friday. "The U.S. dollar continues to garner strong support as markets adjust their rate path expectations," said James Kniveton, senior corporate FX dealer at Convera.
Persons: James Kniveton, Kniveton, Donald Trump, Rachel Reeves, Keir Starmer, Liz Truss Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Reserve Bank, Australia's, U.S, Treasury, Republican, European Central Bank, Sterling, Labor Locations: States, U.S, Australia, Europe
Mārtiņš Kazāks, Bank of Latviawatch nowOn a 50-basis-point rate cut: "Well, everything should be on the table, you know, given what the data tells us. Klaas Knot, Netherlands central bankwatch now"Are we risking a structural undershoot of our inflation target? Joachim Nagel, German central bankwatch nowOn rate cuts: "This discussion about 25 or maybe something different is not helpful. On rate cuts: "The direction is clear. Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuaniawatch nowOn rate cuts: "We are clearly moving ... towards the direction of easing monetary policy.
Persons: Karen Tso, Pierre Wunsch, I'm, we've, Mario Centeno, Klaas, It's, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, disinflation, Volcker, Olli Rehn, it's, Gediminas Šimkus, Boris Vujčić Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary, Bank of Latvia, National Bank of Belgium, Bank of Portugal, Austrian National Bank, Bank of France, Bank of Finland, Bank of Lithuania, Croatian National Bank Locations: Washington ,, Kazāks, Netherlands, German, Galhau, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Everything should be on the table,' says ECB's Kazāks on possibility of a jumbo rate cutMārtiņš Kazāks, the governor of the Bank of Latvia and European Central Bank Governing Council member, discusses monetary policy with CNBC's Karen Tso at the IMF meetings in DC.
Persons: ECB's, Karen Tso Organizations: Bank of, European Central Bank Governing Locations: Bank of Latvia
The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. This week, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he would prefer to "avoid outsized moves", and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker backed "a slow, methodical approach" to further easing. The dollar has now "punched through key technical resistance levels" against the yen, "opening the door for higher levels", Catril said. Although opinion polls indicate a neck-and-neck race with Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, cryptocurrency-prediction exchange Polymarket has seen a sharp rise in bets for a Trump win.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jeffrey Schmid, Patrick Harker, Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Trump, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde, Mario Centeno Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Kansas, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, National Australia Bank, UST, Republican, Democratic, Trump, of, Traders, European Central Bank, Wednesday Locations: Japan, Sunday's
Mārtiņš Kazāks, governor of the Bank of Latvia and a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, on Thursday weighed in on the possibility of a jumbo half-point interest rate cut for December. When asked for his views on a 50-basis rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting, he said that "everything should be on the table." "But we will have that discussion in December," he told CNBC's Karen Tso at the IMF's annual meetings in Washington, D.C. Thursday. His comments come after the ECB delivered a back-to-back interest rate cut for the first time in 13 years at its October meeting. It also comes a day after Portuguese central bank chief Mario Centeno made similar comments.
Persons: Mārtiņš Kazāks, CNBC's Karen Tso, , Mario Centeno, Centeno Organizations: Bank of, European Central Bank's Governing, ECB, CNBC Locations: Bank of Latvia, Washington ,, Portuguese
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRate cuts isn't really a situation where ECB needs to rush, strategist saysGuillaume Menuet, EMEA head of investment strategy and economics at Citi Wealth, weighs in on the European Central Bank's future path for interest rates.
Persons: Guillaume Menuet Organizations: Citi Wealth, Central
Fed outlook pushes dollar to 2-1/2 month peak; yen under pressure
  + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar hovered at a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday as investors adjusted bets toward a gradual reduction of interest rates while keeping an eye on a close presidential election race. The yen remained under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marched higher, pushing it to a three-month low. That less dovish outlook for the Fed has helped buoy Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last up 0.11% at 104.18 after ticking up to 104.19, its highest since Aug. 2. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields kept the heat on the yen which sank to a three-month low of 151.72 against the greenback.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, there's, Index's Simpson, Komeito, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Reuters, Democratic U.S, Markets, Trump, greenback, Liberal Democratic Party, of, European Central Bank Locations: Harris, U.S, Japan
Both have opined that the rally on Wall Street underscores a growing belief that former President Donald Trump will win on Nov. 5. However, I don't yet believe that Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue have intersected just yet. Indeed, if the stock market is anticipating a Trump victory, what might the bond market and gold market be telling us, assuming they expect the same outcome? Are those markets telling us a Trump victory would lead to higher inflation and bigger fiscal deficits? Those betting on a Trump win would be loath to say so if they follow the messages of multiple markets.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Dan Loeb, Donald Trump, Loeb, it's, Dow Jones, Kamala Harris, Trump, Ron Insana Organizations: Senate, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Dow, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, European Central Bank, Trump, stoke, Democratic, Pennsylvania, CNBC Locations: U.S
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K. is likely to see interest rates drop at a faster pace than previously expected, according to economists who flagged key data releases that indicated inflationary pressures are finally easing. However, economists at Goldman Sachs in a Monday note forecast rate cuts "notably below market pricing." As a result, they see consecutive 25 basis point cuts taking the Bank Rate to 3% as early as September 2025, and to 2.75% in November next year. "Recent data have cemented expectations of another cut in interest rates in November. "That said, uncertainty around the economic outlook is high, and interest rate expectations will be sensitive to what the government announces in the Budget," Muir added.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Goldman Sachs, BOE, Price, , James Smith, Smith, David Muir, Muir, Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves Organizations: of England, Labour, Bank of England's, BOE policymakers, Bank of England, ING . Services, Reuters, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Moody's, Finance Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom
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