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Summary Manufacturing PMI 49.2 in April vs 51.9 in MarchNon-manufacturing PMI 56.4 vs 58.2 in MarchBEIJING, April 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April, official data showed on Sunday, raising pressure on policymakers seeking to boost an economy struggling for a post-COVID lift-off amid subdued global demand and persistent property weakness. That missed expectations of 51.4 tipped by economists in a Reuters poll, and marked the first contraction since December last year, when the official manufacturing PMI was at 47.0. China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. The manufacturing sector, which provides jobs to about 18% of those employed nationwide, remains under pressure due to slack global demand. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, dropped to 54.4 from 57.0.
The 8.4 trillion yuan ($1.24 trillion) decrease in profits in 2022 followed a 34.3% rise in 2021. Frequent and widespread COVID disruptions hit production at industrial firms, hurting both supply and demand sides and putting huge upward pressure on costs, said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle. In 2022, profits at foreign firms slumped 9.5%, while those at private-sector firms shrank 7.2%, NBS data showed. Industrial profits data covers firms with annual revenue above 20 million yuan from their main operations. Liabilities at industrial firms rose 8.6% in 2022 from a year earlier, compared with 9.0% growth as of end-November.
Summary China may miss typical November-December export surgeExports unexpectedly dropped in October as global demand ebbedFall in exports broad-based, from toys to appliancesBEIJING, Nov 10 (Reuters) - China's usual year-end export surge is in doubt as weak global demand dims a rare bright spot for the world's second-biggest economy, already hurt by COVID-19 lockdowns, a frozen property sector and ebbing domestic consumption. Analysts expect global recession risks and China's disruptive COVID curbs will further drag on exports in coming months, dashing hopes for an economic rebound this quarter. Qi was not sure of the scale of orders that overseas customers would place in December. A closely watched private-sector survey focussing on small manufacturers shows export orders contracting since August. Buyers usually book orders for Christmas and Black Friday around August, but weak demand already sapped any lift this period.
Summary China's Oct exports contract 0.3% y/y, misses forecastImports also shrink, highlights impact of China's COVID curbsTrade balance widens slightly from SeptBEIJING, Nov 7 (Reuters) - China's exports and imports unexpectedly contracted in October, the first simultaneous slump since May 2020, as surging inflation and rising interest rates hammered global demand while new COVID-19 curbs at home disrupted output and consumption. It heaps more pressure on the country's manufacturing sector and threatens any meaningful economic revival in the face of persistent COVID-19 curbs, protracted property weakness and global recession risks. Tepid domestic demand, weighed down by fresh COVID curbs and lockdowns in October as well as the cooling property market, hurt imports too. The data reflected a recent official factory activity survey which showed a sub-index for imports extended declines last month. The overall trade figures resulted in a slightly wider trade surplus of $85.15 billion, compared with $84.74 billion in September, missing a forecast of $95.95 billion.
DEBT STRESSTreasury bond quotas could be increased, so that some of them could be transferred to local governments to ease their fiscal stress, said Luo Zhiheng, chief macroeconomic analyst at Yuekai Securities. Combined with some maturing debts of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) - investment companies that build infrastructure projects - this year and the next will be most stressful for local governments, he said. According to financial media outlet Yicai, local governments' revenue from fines and confiscations jumped 10.4% in January-July year-on-year. The fiscal stress is cutting into some households' income, a red flag for consumption and broader growth. As there is no way out, they have had to ask the local government fiscal department for money."
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